So who starts Tuesday in Detroit?

by thejamootz on Jul 7, 2008 9:12 AM EDT Comment 48 comments

Assuming C.C. is gone (and if he isn't gone, he's close enough to gone that they'd probably hold him out of the game), they're going to need a starting pitcher tomorrow night.

Looking at the Bisons, it appears it's Matt Ginter's turn in the rotation. Brian Slocum and Tom Mastny are also hanging around Cleveland looking for something to do, so they would seem to be options as well. If they really want to get crazy, they could call Scott Lewis up from Akron - he's scheduled to start Tuesday. John Halama threw five innings on Friday night, so he'd be going on three days rest if they use him.

If it's a done deal and there's room on the 25, I'd give Ginter the start, not that it's a great option. Not that it really matters at this point.

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Jeff Weaver

It looks as if Jeff Weaver was signed to a Minor League deal, and will come up to start vs. the Tigers on Tuesday.

by jaf on Jul 7, 2008 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeesh.

Was Jamie Navarro unavailable?

by thejamootz on Jul 7, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Yeesh, you joined SBN just to post that?

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

by Jay on Jul 7, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sowers. They skipped him to pitch Lee on Sunday, I think. So he’s available and on full rest.

by peter m on Jul 7, 2008 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sowers can pitch in CC’s spots on Tuesday and Sunday. The Indians don’t need the fifth start until Saturday.

by palcal on Jul 7, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Are we going to see Huff this season?

by gte619n on Jul 7, 2008 12:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope so. God help us if we roll out Weaver, Halama, or any of the other AAA stiffs for the rest of the year.

by mrich on Jul 7, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Naw. We can make this fun. Some sort of “AAA Stiff” Drinking Game.

Maybe for every inning that Weaver/Halama/et al’s WHIP is 1.5 you have to drink one and a half beers.

Longnecks.

I did a Google image search for "Andy Marte." It turned up zero results.

by emd2k3 on Jul 7, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drink The WHIP Game: At the close of each half-inning pitched by a starter on the Buffalo roster as of 7/7/08, drink one beer per baserunner allowed. This will have the added advantage of keeping you from watching the bullpen “pitch.”

by FredOx on Jul 7, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WHIP it! Into shape! Go forrwarrd! Moove ahedddd! Try to detect itttt. It’s not ttoooot latte to whpaosdif it! qwer’tiopj it god[ osifh z.

Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jul 7, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m fine with Huff’s clock staying frozen in the minors. I wouldn’t mind getting him into some major-league situations this year, but I’m fine if he doesn’t.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 7, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want to see him in Cleveland this year. I want another Laffey.

by Voltaire on Jul 7, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. The last 8 weeks have been depressing enough as it is; at this point I’d much rather watch a few Huff starts and get some optimism going again than worry about his arb clock.

by mrich on Jul 8, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as long as we don’t get another sowers (great in second half 06, not so great starting the next year in the rotation)

by Brick. on Jul 8, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sowers: Sucks his next two years in the rotation.

by odradek on Jul 8, 2008 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really. He’s only had about 25 big-league starts since 2006. (I’m not even looking it up.)

by Jay on Jul 8, 2008 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by Gradyforpresident on Jul 9, 2008 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, he’s sucked for nearly two-thirds of a season. But he’s not finished yet, though I can’t imagine him getting another 50 starts at this rate.

by odradek on Jul 9, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

35 career starts, 196 innings pitched, 232 hits, 30 homers allowed, 53 walks, 77 strikeouts, 5.42 ERA.

by odradek on Jul 9, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TBD is penciled in right now. I hope he’s good.

by PatBordersHelmet on Jul 7, 2008 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Indians.com now says Sowers.

"A good body with a dull brain is as cheap as life itself."

by Fiddlesticks on Jul 7, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Swapping out CC from the 40-man and adding Jackson leaves the 40-man at 37.

There are no active pitchers at Buffalo on the 40-man. Is Weaver ready to be added to the 40-man and pitch on Saturday—he hasn’t pitched in AAA since June 11?

Or would they use Jackson to help out with the innings on Saturday ( he’s been in the bullpen in Nashville recently).

The Indians can add a position player for at least the next 4 days. Will it be Aubrey?

by palcal on Jul 7, 2008 2:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Three of the 4 starters they face are righties, so Aubrey might be useful. But, the Indians are also starting Byrd, Sowers and who knows who on Saturday, so they may need additional bullpen help!!

by peter m on Jul 7, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

saw Torregas’s 7HR in 7-game binge in another post; let’s bring him up to DH

by palcal on Jul 7, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

with his game-winning HR today, I see 6HR in 7 games

by palcal on Jul 7, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The first start required is Saturday July 12 and the next is not until July 22.

Lewis at Akron is the only minor starting pitcher on the 40-man. Ginter, Halama, etc would have to be added to the 40-man as well as the 25-man.

Although there are 3 spots open on the 40 man, they may be reluctant to add somebody to the 40 man for July 12, when somebody else like Weaver or another trade may be ready by July 22.

Jackson has been pitching relief in Nashville, but he could chew up some innings Saturday.

by palcal on Jul 7, 2008 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey, I know, let’s have Mastny start the game!

by Jay on Jul 7, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For pure fascination value I’d like to see Perez.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jul 7, 2008 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m still holding a candle for Tom Mastny’s career as an effective reliever. it would seem weird to me that he could have such a respectable K-rate for so long and be flat-out useless against major leaguers, so, like Mujica, I think it’s just a matter of reps.

by fleerdon on Jul 7, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also holding that candle, fully expecting to suffer severe burns.

by Jay on Jul 8, 2008 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ouch! That memory hurts.

by PatBordersHelmet on Jul 8, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, Ginter/Halama would eat up a spot on the 40-man, but they could also be DFAed Tyner-style if you need the spot. It’s not like you’re really losing much if someone claims them…there’s eighty gazillion pitchers out there who can go five innings a start and put up an ERA in the mid-5s.

If Byrd stays, Ginter and Halama become useless when Carmona returns, so it’s not like they have any kind of future in the organization anyway.

Again, I’m not saying this is a great option, but it’s certainly a defensible one at this point.

by thejamootz on Jul 8, 2008 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one has mentioned Dan Reichart, who is also pitching at Buffalo. His first three starts were terrible, but since then he’s pitched respectably (better than Halama, judging by the statistics, anyway). He started Monday, so he’d be on track for a Saturday start. I don’t think he’s a long-term solution to anything, but he’s another name to keep in mind, and someone who also could be DFA’d if the team needed the roster spot for someone else.

by peter m on Jul 8, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

them…there’s eighty gazillion pitchers out there who can go five innings a start and put up an ERA in the mid-5s

That is absolutely not the case. The average #5 starter doesn’t do that well with any consistency at all.

by Jay on Jul 8, 2008 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just checking out the minors.baseball-reference.com leaders for free or cheap talent, any of these guys can and in most cases have:
Gary Knotts 5.45 career MLB ERA
Tomokazu Ohka 4.14
Dan Reichert 5.55
Jason Stanford 3.61
John Halama 4.65
Matt Ginter 5.46
Bryan Bullington 5.89
Kane Davis 5.53
Jeff Harris 4.26
Damian Moss 4.50
Mike Bacsik 5.46
Vladimir Nunez 4.82
Casey Fossum 5.50

13. And that’s just the International League. These guys are everywhere. Some would be better than 5IP, 5.50ERA, some worse, but there are quite literally dozens of them out there. Losing one or two of them is inconsequential because you can always go get a couple more. Buffalo has four of them.

The reason fifth starters don’t do that well consistently is that guys higher in the rotation get hurt or traded, or just struggle, which makes sixth and seventh starters into “fifth” starters and fifth starters into “third” and “fourth” starters.

by thejamootz on Jul 9, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

these numbers are biased, though. presumably, most of these guys pitched in the majors when they were pitching their best. the fact that they are not in the majors now, suggests they are no longer pitching their best (and may never again). so you’re putting their “best” ERA up as representative of what they could do now, which is a false comparison.

by APV on Jul 9, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, okay, Bullington and Bacsik (the only two of the 13 listed who are in this year’s BPro book with projections) both actually get better if you look at their PECOTAs.

Guys like Stanford, Harris, and Moss would absolutely do worse than their career ERAs, but even if you add a run and a half to them, you’re still looking at an ERA in the mid 5s for Stanford and Harris. Ohka had the worst season of his career last year and put up a 5.79 ERA, so I think you’re more likely than not to get a 5.5/5 IP guy out of him. I hate Casey Fossum (as a pitcher, not the guy – I’ve never met him), but even after all the miserable seasons he’s had, his ERA is still 5.50.

I dunno, you can feel free to believe what you want, but I feel pretty secure in my belief that there are at least 15-20 guys in AAA who would – on average – be able to go five innings at a time with an ERA in the mid 5’s. That’s not going to win you the pennant or anything, but what it means is that you lose virtually nothing if you DFA Matt Ginter or John Halama. Which is why these guys get cut constantly.

by thejamootz on Jul 9, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ZiPS projections where available:
Ohka 5.61
Stanford 5.16
Ginter 5.48
Bullington 5.01
Harris 6.39
Bacsik 5.43
Fossum 4.43

by thejamootz on Jul 9, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can someone please help me by digging out that classic THT article on how the pitchers in each # slot really perform? I promise I’ll put it in the sidebar this time.

ZiPS is dealing with limited data in these cases. For a retread guy, you have to rely on the scouting, and that should be obvious. Look up the numbers on each of those seven, find an article on how they’re doing in their minor league season. I think you’ll be surprised.

by Jay on Jul 9, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-starting-rotations/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/

either of these it?

by Brick. on Jul 9, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve read the article. It’s all well and good, but when a guy starts the season as the fifth/sixth starter and pitches well (for example Cliff Lee ‘08 or Fausto Carmona ‘07), they don’t get counted as the fifth starter for the purposes of those numbers. When a guy who starts the season as a mid-rotation guy (Paul Byrd ‘08, Cliff Lee ‘07) and pitches miserably, well, voila! Sure as hell, fifth starters are always awful pitchers, ergo any free talent in AAA is worse!

Either that or the normally mid-rotation guys having that awful season are counted in the fifth spot.

Whichever you’d prefer to believe. Whatever’s easier.

by thejamootz on Jul 9, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would think your worst starter for that season regardless of who started there should be counted as your fifth starter

by Roger Dorn on Jul 9, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The numbers for some of these guys are distorted because they pitched against the Cleveland Indians.

by odradek on Jul 9, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The fact that Kane Davis is even on the list ought to end the argument, frankly.

by Jay on Jul 9, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good old Kane. Here’s his 2000 line for the Tribe:

11 innings, 20 hits, 21 runs, 18 ERs, 3 homers, 8 walks, 2 strikeouts, 14.73 ERA and a WHIP of 2.545. That makes Jason Johnson (77 IP, 108 hits for Indians in 2006) look good.

by odradek on Jul 9, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m no Kane Davis apologist – he’s just as crappy as Halama, Ginter, Reichert, or any of the rest of the Quad-A Pitchers’ Association Of America – but which are you going to believe? The 11 innings in Cleveland or the 114 innings of league-average ball he’s pitched since?

The answer’s probably in the middle (around, say….5.50?), but c’mon, he’s not really a 14.73 ERA guy.

by thejamootz on Jul 9, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs