Who Else Should Be Calling a Realtor?
by woodsmeister on Jul 7, 2008 11:32 AM EDT
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PrintWith CC gone, who should be the next to be calling a Realtor? In other words - who's next off the island.
- CasEy BlakE - His trade value has probably never been higher with his sudden inexplicable ability to hit with RISP. Plus, he's blocking Andy Marte. Downside - can anyone else on this team hit in runs?
- Paul Byrd - He might have some value to a contender needing a 5th starter to eat some innings. Downside - hasn't pitched well over the last month or so - might only bring organizational filler in return.
- Ryan Garko - Matt LaPorta looms, and his swing just seems to get longer and longer. Downside - might stop swinging for the fences and start hitting like last year again.
- David Dellucci - Veteran presence off the bench. Downside - we'll probably have to eat his contract and even then we'll likely only get organizational filler.
- Ben Francisco - Classic fourth outfielder. LaPorta can play left. So can Choo. Pretty good arm. Old for a rookie. Might provide someone else with a little pop off the bench. Downside - Really, not much downside I can see.
- Rafael Betancourt - Maybe he's jumped the shark. Can we find someone to buy based on his lights out season last year? If he finds it elsewhere, we'll probably regret it.
- Andy Marte - Maybe he really is overrated and we can find a buyer based on that great season at Richmond. His trade value has probably never been lower, though.
- All of the above
- Someone else? Who else might have some value but may not be in the longterm plans? Gutierrez? Choo?
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Blake seems to be the guy with the most value right now as a super-utility guy for a contending club. Let’s hope he keeps hitting. Best case scenario is we trade him in a move not unlike our acquisition of Kenny Lofton last season.
i like the idea of trading francisco. a lot, actually.
by Gradyforpresident on Jul 7, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions
I think it’s a virtual certainty that Blake will be traded. Byrd, I’d say something like 90% probability.
And I think we unload at least one more guy as well. Francisco actually makes a lot of sense since he’s pretty much the only guy we could sell high on. He ought to bring back a pretty nice haul given how young, cheap, and versatile he is. I’d be all for trading Garko, Marte, or Raffy B if we could find a willing partner; I just don’t think we’d get back good value based on their track records this year.
Gutz is an interesting case, in that I’d do what Beane does—make it known that he’s available but the price is very, very steep. I figure there’s like a 5% probability somebody needs a gold-glove caliber center fielder before the deadline and ponies up. And if not, then we just keep his premium defense in RF for another year at least.
Francisco is not young by prospect standards – he’s 26.
Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Jul 7, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know – I can’t see someone be willing to pay much at all to gamble on Gutz or Cisco. I think we’ll keep evaluating these two right on through the end of the year.
Gutierrez is a stud defensive centerfielder on virtually any other team. There’s value there.
Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Jul 7, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Blake and Byrd are no brainers. I’m starting to worry that we might get stuck with Byrd though.
Betancourt is interesting. He is realtively cheap for a pitcher with his experience and history. He’s durable. The big problem is he is quickly getting old and his one pitch (the outside fastball) isn’t quite as effective as it used to be. What happens if that fastabll loses velocity?
I think Garko and Gootz are in the same boat. I don’t see a team making a decent offer for their services and you might as well give them time to increase their value over the next 2 1/2 months, then decide their future in the offseason. Garko is better served to be in AAA playing everyday until Blake is traded.
Maybe we should send Garko down to AAA to don the tools of ignorance once again and enhance his value that way. Right now he’s hitting like a backup catcher.
Free Andy Marte!
I was thinking of actually writing a fanpost about why we should re-sign Casey Blake. I don’t have time to do that, but my gist was:
- He can play 1B this year (although I’d rather it be Garko, another couple weeks of his suckiness might be enough for him to get sent down.
- If Marte doesn’t work out, is there a plan B for 3B? Seriously- Marte should get about 300 AB’s this season, but what if he hits .200/.300/.350 over that span… wouldn’t we be looking for a veteran fill in for 09 if we want to contend?
- Blake has been a good hitter for 5 years. he’s old, but oddly consistent.
- He is versatile
- If he signed with another team and we faced that team, Wedge would force our pitcher to groove him fastballs.
Even if Marte hit 650 OPS over the next three months — after hardly playing at all in the past nine months — he would still be a good bet to hit nearly as well as an aging Blake next season — and he’s essentially free.
Marte may not be the answer at 3B, but for all those who are sick of the Nixon/Dellucci signings, how can you possibly support signing Blake to a new deal? Blake is the exact same type of player at this point in his career.
by Jay on Jul 7, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
that’s the thing- we are going to have more nixon/dellucci signings- sometimes they work: Eduardo Perez worked in a way. Ronnie Belliard. By the way, neither nixon or dellucci were above average everyday players for the 5 years before the deal. Again, its less of a worry if Marte shows ANY ability in the next 3 months, but if he doesn’t, we are going to be looking at the Blake’s of the world on the FA list for a competitive option at 3rd.
No more Blake! He’s a black hole, sucking all the team’s energy into his grim look of determination. He’s bad karma. He drags down the rest of the team. He’ll be 35 in a few weeks. He’s a terrible fielder. He’s a quitter. Don’t forget his double play against Boston, and his butchery in the field. Give this guy another chance and he will burn you. Get rid of him immediately, while he’s still hitting. Even with his “clutch” hitting this year he is a .207/.311/.321 career hitter with RISP and two outs. He is worse than a replacement player.
I love Casey Blake. But enough is enough.
This organization will have plenty of 1B - Garko, LaPorta (YAY!), Brown, possibly still Aubrey - in 2009. It will have the same three corner outfielders who are playing now, and possibly some more we don’t know about yet. (Anyway, how much has Wedge employed Casey’s versatility this season, outside of the shortstopping in the rain adventure?) The only position for which we’d really need Casey and his versatility is at third, and it’s a real stretch to call him a third baseman defensively any more. And we ought not to discount the possibility of a hot second half for Hodges, which would put him in play for 2009 if he can keep it going.
I have a point, seriously. It’s that, if all we need Casey for is a back-up third baseman, I’d rather use Morgan Ensberg.
by fleerdon on Jul 7, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, AirWolf was tough-guy cheesy, Duvall as as Kilgore was tough guy in distress. Now I figure we can all get back to making jokes nobody gets—hence, Servo.
“Take me away, little shorts.”
by fleerdon on Jul 8, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I am still living down the purchase of a MST3k DVD from an infomercial late into a night of drinking in college.
I am still constantly getting high fives as a result of the purchase of a MST3k DVD
Fixed.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Jul 8, 2008 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Byrd may get us filler, but if we agree to pay the majority of the remaining $$, that filler could get larger, but obviously not a prime prospect.
The problem with dealing Byrd will be the rotation. We are already down Westbrook, Carmona, and now CC. If you deal Byrd, that’s four fifths of the rotation replaced.
We have Laffey, Sowers, and Carmona (hopefully coming back in a couple weeks). That would leave two more spots for Halama, Weaver, etc. That’s pretty ugly.
You’re making the assumption that Byrd will outpitch Weaver, et al, over the rest of the season. I’m not saying it’s necessarily false, but you’re making it.
by fleerdon on Jul 7, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re forgetting Lee.
The rotation will be Lee, Carmona, Laffey, Sowers, Anybody. Anybody can replace Byrd.
by Jay on Jul 7, 2008 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Carmona of course is taking a little bit longer than expected to come back from his injury (and they should take their time with him now that the season is lost) Weaver is going to suck and suck hard. I’m sure they can get by with another starter for a while, but boy oh boy is it going to suck.
It’s frankly a little weird, but I have no idea of Casey Blake’s value—whether real or as perceived by GMs. Okay, I have a little bit of a grasp on his real value. I hope the latter is higher.
Anyway my point is that I don’t know where to begin looking at possible trades. Rich Hill? Jacob McGee?
Steel Nick
Hello Nick,
McGee would be nice, though I somehow doubt TB would give him up for Blake – Blake has value, but I doubt he has that MUCH value.
As for Hill, I think it COULD be possible, mostly because Hill is older than McGee (Hill is 28-YO, whereas McGee is only 21-YO) and has faltered this year (19.2 IP/13 H/9 R/9 ER/2 HR/18 BB/15 K), and there’s been concern about whether his stuff and command can continue to get guys out like it did last year when he looked like a very good #2 pitcher (195.0 IP/170 H/89 R/85 ER/27 HR/63 BB/183 K).
Therefore, of the two, Hill MAY be possible to get by trading Blake (though probably still a bit of a long-shot); McGee would likely take more than Blake to acquire. If we could get Hill for Blake, I would very likely make that trade.
One caveat though in regards to possibly acquiring Hill – now that the Cubs have traded away Gallagher (who some said was the Cubs’ #1 pitching prospect) to the A’s in the Rich Harden trade, the Cubs may not be as willing to trade Hill, who they may still see as being a big part of their future rotation, and if that’s the case, Blake himself likely won’t get it done, especially since Blake is 35-YO and is in the final year of his current contract.
The more I think about it, Blake himself probably won’t get Hill either, but if we added a piece or two to it (maybe Francisco now that they traded away Murton), maybe.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I thought maybe since McGee’s numbers were so-so this year, and with a glut of young pitching, Tampa Bay wouldn’t mind giving him up. Kind of like Milwaukee being willing to part with LaPorta because they have Gamel but on a much smaller scale.
I think he could be a great closer as soon as 2009. But I think everyone in baseball is aware of this, so there’s no sneaking him out of Tampa Bay.
Steel Nick
They look at his stat line and say “meh”. But then they look at him play and see the beard, and the never ending amounts of grit and say to themselves “that’s how baseball should be played”.
My brain says no but my heart says yes!
Wedge: [letting go of Casey's hand] I'll never let go, Casey. I promise.
Hello Nick,
From what I have heard and read, I think McGee is one of TB’s better pitching prospects; probably only David Price is higher. Keep in mind that McGee is only 21-YO and he’s pitching in the Southern League, a known hitter’s league, so his “so-so” numbers would probably be considerably better in a more neutral league.
For Blake, a 35-YO who is essentially a 3-month rental, and though he’d be easier to sign than Sabathia would be, is probably not someone a team would want to invest a 4-year deal, or even a 3-year deal. Therefore, even though he brings good versatility to a ballclub and is hitting well with RISP this year, Blake’s value is still a good deal less than Sabathia’s, even though they are in similar situations in regards to their current contracts, so I don’t see where Blake would bring us McGee.
Certainly, I hope you’re right, but I doubt TB would give up that much for Blake – after all, they weren’t willing to go after Sabathia, a pitcher who could have brought leadership to a staff, that while talented, is young and inexperienced, especially when it comes to a postseason run, so I really can’t see them paying that high a price for Blake.
Plus, I think TB still sees McGee as a starter; I think most other organizations and publications still see McGee as a starter as well, so if the Indians could acquire him, I’d think they would give him every chance to be a frontline starter before turning him into a reliever.
Therefore, I’d be pretty surprised if Blake would net us McGee. A lesser pitching prospect, but still a solid one (no names immediately come to mind from their system, but I’m sure they have a few solid pitching prospects with lower upside than McGee), I could see, but I doubt McGee.
It was certainly a good idea though – I’d like to acquire McGee, but the price would likely be higher than Blake.
Just my 2 cents – no offense.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
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