Joe Sheehan On The Big Trade

Joe Sheehan from BP breaks down the trade.

over 3 years ago Cols714 21 comments 0 recs |

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I’ll have to assume it’s not the words “I was wrong” in a +22 font.

by fleerdon on Jul 8, 2008 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Actually, it kind of is. Mea culpa.

by fleerdon on Jul 8, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Except…

Mark Shapiro got a top-50 prospect in LaPorta, one who fills an organizational need and who could be in the team’s lineup starting now. That’s a good thing. The deal, though, is roughly Sabathia-for-LaPorta, and that doesn’t seem like enough. It certainly doesn’t seem like enough to pull the trigger on July 7. There are three-plus weeks to the deadline. There are at least 17 teams fighting for eight postseason slots, some of which have trigger-happy GMs and loaded farm systems. On July 31, I might argue that two months of CC Sabathia for six years of Matt LaPorta and some throw-ins is what the market priced him at. The same deal on July 7 means that not enough options were explored.

Seems to me this is defensible enough. If LaPorta was the single best player we were going to get, filling our single biggest need, why stick around and chance the Brewers coming apart at the screws in the next two weeks? And he’s playing down Green, who reportedly is a natural second baseman, unnecessarily. He gives us a second legit 2B prospect (including Josh Rodriguez)—also a significant need.

Half-assed mea culpa.

by fleerdon on Jul 8, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, this is shoddy analysis. Melvin is already on record saying the price was going to go down if the Brewers had to wait until the end of July. I think Sheehan is pretending to know more about the market value of Sabathia than he does, and overrating it.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 8, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Well he’s in the “dealth too soon” camp regarding CC. I don’t get it though. The risk of injury and the decrease in value of said pitcher as he then has less time on a new team, plus the possiblility that a few teams fall out of the race at this time and reduces the market leads to trading sooner than later. Its not as if these other clubs didn’t know CC was being offered now and that a deal was likely going to happen soon. Sheehan seems to be off the mark a bit here.

by hans on Jul 8, 2008 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

sorry should say “delt to soon”

by hans on Jul 8, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

He thinks it was the right move, but that the Indians didn’t get enough. He’s assuming Taylor Green is the other player.

What he ignore though, is that the Indians haven’t had a power prospect like LaPorta in a decade.

by Cols714 on Jul 8, 2008 3:23 PM EDT reply actions

Sheehan, like many others criticizing Shapiro’s early move, is failling to recognize that Shapiro was not dealing in a vacuum. If Sabathia had been the only starting pitcher available in a mid-season trade, then fine…. maybe Shapiro acted too early.

Those arguing that he should have leveraged offers against each other and let a bidding war ensue fail to realize that if/when A.J. Burnett gets dealt to a contender, that is now one less team in the market for Sabathia, and therefore, one less team to use as leverage. When Erik Bedard gets dealt, another potential suitor is gone. On and on down the line. While none of these pitchers compare to C.C., maybe these teams would tire of bidding as much as they could in the trade market for a player they know is going to test the free agent market after only 3 months of use.

And Shapiro is left with a valuable asset in Sabathia, with less teams willing to trade for him, and some general managers not wanting to pay the highest price for the highest goods when lesser goods are available at lesser prices.

I’m glad Shapiro acted when he did. There was a market now, and no reason not to exploit it.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Jul 8, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

didn’t this blow up in the nationals face with soriano?

by Brick. on Jul 8, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t see the connection. The Nationals didn’t trade Soriano, and we’re talking about trading weeks ahead of the deadline vs. right at/before the deadline. When the Nationals traded for him, it was during the offseason.

Am I missing something?

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Jul 8, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

In his walk year, the Nats putzed around and in the end held onto Soriano. They ended up sucking as usual, Soriano signed with the Cubs and the Nats ended up with Josh Smoker (0-4, 11.50 ERA in Hagerstown) and Jordan Zimmermann (6-3, 3.34 between Potomac and Harrisburg). It will likely turn out in hindsight that they should have pulled the trigger on the trade in 2006, but the distinction there is probably between trade/no trade and not trade early/trade late.

by FredOx on Jul 8, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

i guess just what i meant by “this”. fred sums it up nicely for me.

by Brick. on Jul 8, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, i’m on board with you guys there.

i don’t care to get into the “trade or let him walk” debate, but i feel pretty strongly about trading now as opposed to the end of July.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Jul 8, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

now i’m confused.

i think the nats/bowden thought that if he waited, he’d get someone(s) desperate and drive up the price by waiting. that didn’t happen and he was forced to stand pat and try and sign him and take the draft picks when he couldn’t. i think this ‘wait and drive up the price’ thing is what sheehan is promoting, and i think it doesn’t really happen like that and that tading now maximized the value with the brewers becuase it maximized his starts for milwaukee.

by Brick. on Jul 8, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

yes, that’s exactly what i was saying. i completely agree.

Initially i took your comment about the Nats and Soriano as questioning my first post.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Jul 8, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

nope, just “that reminds me of the soriano thing and that’s why i think dealing now is better”

by Brick. on Jul 8, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you take your money off the table. Seems kind of weird to get into a standoff. Isn’t that what boxed in the Twins with Johan? If they had acted earlier—I haven’t checked the names involved—they could have gotten Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, or Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester. I think the standoff approach, waiting for the last minute, is a sort of ESPN construct. GMs with their six-shooters squinting into the setting sun. Shapiro obviously knew his market in this deal, and probably spelled out what he wanted (“Give me a call by Sunday, Omar, if you change your mind”). There are also plenty of unknown factors here, and it is presumptuous of Sheehan to claim he knows the Indians could have gotten more on July 31.

Is it possible that many of those in the Too Early camp are from the Northeast? Maybe they think if Shapiro and Melvin hadn’t jumped the gun, then the big players could have gotten involved, e.g. Epstein and Cashman. The Mets got Frank Viola at one minute to midnight in 1989. As Harry Caray used to say, the big possum walks late.

by odradek on Jul 8, 2008 3:39 PM EDT reply actions

It seems to me that Shapiro has a better knowledge of the market than the people who are criticizing him for moving too early. I”m not saying you can’t criticize the trade, but this idea that has sprung up, from seemingly nowhere, that the Indians would have definitely gotten more had they waited is pretty much BS.

by Cols714 on Jul 8, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions

I guess I could have just written “what odradek said”.

by Cols714 on Jul 8, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s not BS, but it’s certainly not conclusive. Nobody here, nor in the Indians FO, can see into the future and know where things will stand in 2 or 3 weeks. The theory is that the injury risk to Sabathia is negligible, while the ‘MIL falling out of contention’ risk is real, but there enough other teams that would have been bidding for Sabathia that the market would have held up. I am not sure I agree with either of these, especially if Matt LaPorta was the guy Shapiro wanted all along, which, according to many indications, is the case.

You have no idea the physical toll that three vasectomies have on a person

by jakesinger777 on Jul 8, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions