Hello JP_Frost,

I respect your opinion about Grady, but I disagree.

Personally, I think Lofton’s skill-set in his prime made him the best leadoff hitter the Indians have had in the past 20-30 years. Grady is not in that same mold.

Pitchers threw fastballs more often when Lofton was on base because they had to be aware of his ability to steal bases. Grady doesn’t have that same type of speed. Pitchers need to be aware of him, but Grady isn’t that pure base-stealing threat at the top of the lineup like Lofton was. That helped the #2 hitter (and also the #3 hitter when Vizquel was aboard, another guy with great stolen-base ability).

Our best offense in the last few decades, run-scoring wise, was the 1999 team with Lofton, Vizquel, and Alomar leading the top of the order. All three were quite able to steal bases almost at will (25/6, 42/9, 37/6 SB/CS for Lofton, Vizquel, and Alomar respectively), and the Indians also led the league in SBs that season with 147 SBs. Granted, the middle and bottom parts of the order certainly contributed to that as well, but having a strong top of the order with speed can greatly influence how a pitcher will go after your 3-4-5 hitters, both in terms of keeping the runners in check and how comfortable the pitcher is on the mound. It’s usually harder for a pitcher to make his pitches on a quality hitter when he has runners on base, and Lofton, Vizquel, and Alomar were quite skilled at getting on-base consistently (.405, .397, .422 for the three respectively. It also helped that they had 79/84, 65/50, and 99/96 BB/K respectively as well).

That’s the type of top-of-the-order that I want the Indians to eventually employ – Grady has done fairly well in the leadoff spot, but I really think his power, one of his best skills, can be utilized more effectively by having him after the top-part-of-the-order, who’d you expect to have higher OBPs than your bottom-of-the-order hitters. That would likely increase Grady’s RBIs because his HRs would more often turn into 2- and 3-run shots rather than just solo shots most of the time.

Personally, I don’t think Grady is that GREAT of a hitter – he shows a good tendency for walks, but also strikes out quite often (sounds a bit like Dunn in that respect, though Grady certainly hits for a better BA than Dunn). Grady also tends to go through those 0-15 to 0-20 droughts a few times throughout the season, something you’d prefer your leadoff hitter to not go through. Most would not want Grady to bunt for hits when he’s struggling, but someone like Crowe or Brantley would be expected and even encouraged to bunt for hits more often when they’re not hitting as well. That would also bring the defenders in and allow them to hit balls through the INF more often because they would have to respect their ability to bunt for hits, opening up more holes on the INF. This would help decrease the chances that type of leadoff hitter would have several 0-15 and 0-20 droughts throughout a season like Sizemore experiences (partly explaining why his BA is down this year in the .260s for a good portion of the season).

Of those three leadoff hitters from 1999, the closest of those three hitters in terms of power to Grady’s power was Alomar, and he was hitting in the #3 spot. I’d consider Grady there, though I think Victor is a better pure hitter than Grady, so I’d put him in the #3 spot. Since Peralta has adapted well to the cleanup spot (including 30 RBIs in his last 32 games, I believe), leave him there. I’d put Grady #5 if Hafner doesn’t rebound or #6 if Hafner does; not only do you add more power to the middle of your lineup and provide more RBI opportunities for Sizemore, you can also utilize the speed he does have and enable your 7-8-9 hitters to not have to hit more than singles or an occasional double to get an extra run home.

Personally, this is the type of offense I’d like to see the Indians work toward in the coming years. Granted, you’d need Brantley (if we acquire him), Crowe, and/or another player or two to step up to form that potential lineup, but I think that’s what the Indians should be working towards. I really don’t think that Grady will remain in the leadoff spot long-term – perhaps another year or two at most, but I think he will be out of there before his contract expires after 2012. Crowe and Brantley should be established by then, giving the Indians that option down the road, and one I think they will utilize because of the extra offensive ability moving Grady down in the lineup will give them because of the increased RBI opportunities he’ll receive and the increased production his HRs will produce.

Just my 2 cents – no offense.

yet Ellsbury is doing quite fine in his first ML season.

Ellsbury is not doing fine in his first major league season. .271/.336/.375 and an OPS+ of 85 is pretty weak. And Ellsbury’s 2007 season was pure BABIP (.380). Now you were the one that brought up the comparison to Ellsbury and Crowe, but as you stated Brantley is showing far better plate discipline in than either of those two players, if he can maintain this than I think he might be able to be a high contact low strikeout hitter and be a decent major leaguer, but without any power thats going to be his ceiling and he better keep up the low Ks to do it.

Also, LaPorta is less than 50/50 to start the season in the majors.