Prospectus Today: Picking the AL MVP
Sheehan casts his lot with Cliff Lee
over 3 years ago
kritz
58 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
I hate to sound lazy, but since I don’t subscribe to it, could someone quote the argument? I’d find it to be an extremely difficult case for Lee being the most valuable player.
Steel Nick
It’s pretty much a straight WARP argument. Lee and Halladay lead all pitchers with 8.6 and 7.7 WARP1, while the top position players are Kinsler (6.4), Mauer (6.3), A-Rod and Youk (5.8 each) — meaning that the dumb voters probably and unsurprisingly will pick someone who isn’t even in the top five.
In the end when you mix traditional voting standards (zomg he carried the team) with what you’re presenting, I’d say (gulp) that Youk is a pretty legit candidate. His numbers are great but pretty pedestrian for what makes me think “MVP.”
Maybe pedestrian is a bad word.
Steel Nick
If Pedro Martinez didn’t win the MVP in 1999 (over Ivan Rodriguez!), then no starting pitcher is going to win it.
Now as far as whether Lee has been the best/most valuable player in the AL this season, I guess there’s a case to be made for it. But I think there’s little chance of that happening because most voters immediately disqualify a player from a non-contending team. And others just won’t vote for a pitcher.
Pedro lost, and Ivan won, in large part because three other excellent position-player candidates split the vote.
I get what you’re saying – there is no Roberto Alomar or Manny Ramirez-type position player out there. But If Pedro was matched up against, say, Kinsler and Hamilton along with v. 1999 Pudge, though, would he have won? Keep in mind that Pudge got more first-place votes than Pedro. I think that’s due to voters not wanting to vote for a pitcher for the MVP.
Didn’t three writes leave Pedro off their ballots entirely because they didn’t want to vote for a pitcher? I remember hearing that those three guys pretty much kept Pedro from winning the MVP. So I doubt writes would vote for a pitcher from a losing team, no matter how great his numbers are. Remember, in voter’s eyes, if you’re not on a winning team then you’re not “valuable.”
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Aug 19, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering how current MVP’s are chosen, I think Quentin has the best shot. That’s of course, if the White Sox make the playoffs.
I think Cliff still has a shot, but he would have to be perfect the rest of the way. Something like 23-2 and a 2.20 ERA.
I think Quentin is highly likely. As is Hamilton.
I doubt voters will want to give Lee an MVP if he also lands the Cy Young.
Every pitcher who has won the MVP has also gotten the Cy Young since that award was begun in 1956.
I don’t feel like looking it up, but I’m pretty sure just about every one of them played for a league or division winner. At least, the ones I can think of off the top of my head: Newcombe, Koufax, Gibson, McLain, Blue, Fingers, Guillermo (shudder) Hernandez, Clemens.
Cliff ain’t getting no MVP.
There have been nine such pitchers, and none since Eckersley in 1992 (the only one you missed). Every one of them was on a division winner. With one exception, they all won at least 93 games. The exception was Rollie Fingers in 1981, but that was the strike year, in which the Brewers finished 3rd in the first half and first in the second. I doubt we’ll see a pitcher as MVP any time soon, and certainly not one from a fourth-place team.
I think Lee will somehow win the Cy Young, even though he’s on a losing team. He seems to have a lock on the voters’ favorite categories (wins and ERA) and there’s only a couple other guys who are even close overall. I could also see Hamilton winning the MVP because the voters view him as such a great “story” (ugh).
Not sure who I’d pick for MVP, but Kinsler, Sizemore, Quentin, ARod (not in any particular order) would be the front runners if I had a ballot.
Yeah, he’s on my fantasy team so I’ve been checking out the forecast for his injury. It sounds like it’s pretty severe, even though Kinsler has tried to stay optimistic about avoiding surgery. I just don’t see how he’ll be able to recover fast enough without re-injuring himself before the season is essentially over.
If he were to have surgery (highly likely at this point), he’d be out a minimum of 8 weeks and probably would only be at partial strength for the rest of the season. The smart thing to do on the Rangers’ part would be to shut him down.
It IS a joke. But, he’s the “name brand” hitter on that team (the guy people know) and the Twins have exceeded expectations. So, a lot of voters are likely to try to figure out who was the difference maker and will know one guy on the team — ergo, Morneau.
One of Mike and Mike (i forget which one) was touting CC for NL MVP!! Another reason to avoid drive-time talk shows, I guess.
It isn’t as crazy as you think. If they make the playoffs, ask yourself if they would have without CC’s wins and with those of a replacement-level player.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
Let’s say he makes 34 starts this season, and manages to win 4 more games for the Brewers (going 12-0 for them). His ERA remains under 2.00, and the Brewers make the playoffs. How could he not win it?
If only his first 4 starts hadn’t been so bad—exempting those, CC appears to me to have gotten better this year.
I was just pointing this out to a friend of mine who was bemoaning trading Sabathia in our fantasy league — if you take out his first four starts, (see this), Sabathia has a 1.93 ERA in his last 23 games. Sigh.
Despite all of my best intentions, I have not, in fact, grown up to be a debaser.
The amazing thing is that you don’t even have to exclude the first four starts. CC’s overall ERA is now 2.99; last year’s was 3.21.
After his first 4 starts, I didn’t expect that he’d be able to finish with anything less than a 4.00 for the year.
Me either. I even worked out the numbers in an older post and CC is proving me sooo wrong.
In any case, Neyer has picked up on the CC MVP discussion (although he is pushing for David Wright).
Did you write the post that calculated that an immediate return to 2007 form would barely get him down to 4.00?
That was back when we sorta thought he might get cold feet, like Hafner, and reach for his pen.
Did we ever find out what the devil happened in those first four starts? Was he just pitching tight?
by JulioBernazard on Aug 20, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe he was tipping his pitches and teams knew what was coming, probably cascaded into other problems as he probably tried to adjust and went away from what had been working last season.
Terry Pluto claimed that he had developed a habit of bending over before he threw a pitch and that that was throwing off his command. The Indians’ coaching staff spotted it and he stopped doing it, with almost immediate results.
It would be really something if both Sabathia and Lee won the CY this season. Now that would be a story. It’s the story I’m pulling for.
Also! With the rash of less-deserving MVP winners (and offensive tandems canceling each other out), am I the only person who thinks of the CY Young as the more illustrious award?
Interesting point. I think it’s less tainted by intangibles (division winner, clubhouse leader, good guy, clutch). Or to put it another way, under Cy Young-like standards, Albert Belle would have won unanimously.
I don’t think it’s more prestigious, though. Now if pitchers were officially excluded from MVP, the two awards would be considered equal.
Interestingly enough, the same year that Sutcliffe won the Cy with the Cubs after starting the year with the tribe, Bert Blyleven was 3rd in the Cy voting in the AL for the tribe. Blyleven was the highest finisher among AL starting pitchers with only Hernandez and Quisenberry ahead of him.
So just like this year, in 1984 the tribe started with the best starting pitcher in both leagues. In another parallel in 1984, the tribe finished 75-87 despite almost outscoring their opposition. Hopefully this is where the parallel ends, as in 1985, the tribe went 60-102.
As far as Cliff-for-MVP goes, it would have to be a case where his % of our team wins is insane. Like he wins 22 and we win 66 or something.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
In 1972 Steve Carlton won 27 out of his teams 59. I think that was the highest percentage of wins any player has ever had. He won the Cy unanimously, but finished fifth for MVP with just one first-place vote.
Including 30 complete games. Yes, it was a different era back then. But consider this: from July 19 to August 21, Carlton threw nine complete games in a row, including two of 11 innings. The Phillies won eight of them, losing the last one 2-1 in 11. He gave up a total of 9 ER over those 85 IP, and in the five games between July 23 and August 9, he gave up one unearned run in 45 IP, striking out 37 and walking 5.
I predict Huff will do at least as well with the Indians as Carlton did.
by SuddenSam on Aug 19, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Josh Hamilton on public relapse: ‘It was just wrong. That’s all it comes down to.’
- Photo: The Marlins’ ridiculous-looking home run sculpture is almost complete
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman lures alleged stalker into police dragnet
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse with alcohol
- Happy Birthday Boy! Wes Ferrell, the best-hitting pitcher of all-time, would be 104
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
