Byrd likely to move, unlikely to net a draft pick
Keith Law makes an interesting point in his article today, in which Paul Byrd leads a list of six players likely to make it through waivers and into an August trade: "Byrd was just barely a Type B free agent in 2007 and could slip to no-compensation status this year, which means Cleveland could get nothing for him after the season. That gives the Indians plenty of incentive to make a trade this month if Byrd ..."
Under current rules, players in the top 20 percent are classified as Type A, while other players who are in the top 40 percent are classified as a Type B. Currently, losing a Type B player to free agency nets the team a "sandwich round" pick, usually around the 40th overall pick. Most recently, the Indians selected David Huff in the sandwich round in 2006, as compensation for losing Bob Howry. (As a fun side-note, could it turn out that Howry's picks, Huff and Wes Hodges, contribute more than Thome's picks, Brad Snyder and Adam Miller?)
The Elias rankings place each player within their own league and position group (AL pitchers, NL catchers, etc.). Byrd was ranked #34 out of 85 AL pitchers last year, the lowest possible spot to yield a draft pick. Next year's rankings will use each player's stats from 2007-2008 rather than from 2006-2007, meaning that 2006 numbers are basically swapped out for 2008.
After last night's seven-inning gem, Byrd is now on pace (180 IP, 4.72 ERA) to match his 2006 numbers (179 IP, 4.88 ERA) — yet even if he ends up with slightly better numbers than that, his overall two-year ranking is still likely to drop out of the top 40 percent, because run scoring is down across the league..
The league average ERA has dropped from 4.56 in 2006 to 4.20 in 2008 — meaning that Byrd's competition to be in the top 40 percent is going to be tougher. While only 28 starters in the AL managed an ERA under 4.80 in 2006, there are 38 so far this season. His strikeouts are also a bit down, and his wins and winning percentage (5-10 record) are well off the numbers he lucked into in 2006 (10-9).
Bottom line, unless Byrd goes on a bit of a run to end the season, he won't be netting any team a draft pick.
2 months ago
Jay
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Bottom line, unless Byrd goes on a bit of a run to end the season, he won’t be netting any team a draft pick.
So that means his market value is somewhat lower.
Oh wait, is this the run?
by SuddenSam on Aug 2, 2008 11:27 PM EDT 0 recs
Updated … kind of silly of me to have written about Byrd’s “pace” in the middle of one of his starts.
by Jay on
Aug 3, 2008 11:45 AM EDT
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But your main point is still valid: Byrd is far from a lock to merit a pick, therefore his market value suffers. I suppose a PTBNL deal could be constructed around the contingency. As in, the Indians pick form List A if Byrd finishes as a Type B, from List B if he doesn’t.
by SuddenSam on
Aug 3, 2008 12:01 PM EDT
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Yes and no. Byrd’s compensation status is only an issue if his team is comfortable offering him arbitration for 2009. Since that is not a slam-dunk question, it doesn’t affect his value quite as much. I guess the good news is, we won’t have any reason to offer him arbitration, so we can just retain him or not purely based on 2009 value.
by Jay on
Aug 3, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
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On August 30, 1997, we traded Roland de la Maza to the Royals for Bip Roberts. Assuming that conpensation picks are out of the question, do you think that’s about what we can expect for Byrd this time, only in reverse, or would we not even bother if the offers are that low? Would it take a Taylor Green type prospect to make it worthwhile, or are we prepared to trade Byrd for anything at all?
by jhon on
Aug 3, 2008 5:25 PM EDT
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I think we should take the best offer, all things considered.
The main purpose Byrd is serving at this point is to keep games winnable so the team doesn’t become an embarrassment. Our depth had gotten so thin that that easily could have become an issue — Ginter has been more or less respectable, so that gave us the luxury of sending Laffey down for a few weeks. But if Ginter isn’t respectable, and if Byrd gets traded, then who do we have to keep the club from looking like an utter joke?
Believe it or not, I think this is one of the main reasons we acquired Reyes — just to keep the club from looking foolish without having to call up David Huff, who probably is going to be shut down in terms of innings well before the season ends.
by Jay on
Aug 3, 2008 6:25 PM EDT
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Jay, it’s possible I’m just burnt out, but if you get a minute, would you be willing to unpack that comment a little bit? I thought I had a handle on arbitration, but I can’t follow this at all. If it’s obvious and I just need to bone up a little more, do let me know.
by fleerdon on
Aug 3, 2008 7:50 PM EDT
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Okay. Arbitration is an issue for two different types of players. The first type is players who have (almost) three years of service time but less than six years, i.e., they’ve never been free agents. The second type is players who are eligible for free agency.
For the first type, the team has until Dec. 12 to tender each player a contract for next season. If the team doesn’t tender him a contract, he’s released and basically a free agent. (I say “basically” because he’s still subject to service-time rules and will be under the same type of control of the next team with whom he signs.) This is what’s called “non-tendering” a player. (A team technically could non-tender a player who was not yet eligible for arbitration, but it’s basically unheard-of.)
If the team does tender this type of player a contract, however, then they’re committing to pay him whatever the two sides agree to, and if they can’t agree, then they go through the arbitration process. The great majority of the time, when you’re hearing about arbitration, it’s this situation.
For the second type of player, any player who is eligible for free agency also can be offered arbitration, and teams have until Dec. 1 to do this for each player, and the player has until Dec. 7 to accept or decline the offer. If the player accepts, then he’s no longer a free agent — he’s essentially signed to a one-year deal with his old club, with only the salary yet to be settled. Just like the first type, the two sides have to agree to a salary or else go through the arbitration process — and just like the first type, the two sides can agree to a multi-year deal rather than a one-year deal, if that’s what they want to do.
For this type of player, a free agent, if the team offers arbitration and the player declines, then the team is eligible for draft pick compensation (if the player is classified as a Type A or Type B player, that is).
If the team offers arbitration and the player accepts, then the player is no longer a free agent, so of course there’s no compensation.
If the team does not offer arbitration, the team cannot get any draft pick compensation for that player.
If the team offers arbitration and the player signs with another team before accepting or declining, that is considered equivalent to the player declining arbitration, so the team can get draft pick compensation.
If the player signs with another team before the team offers arbitration, that too is considered equivalent to the team offering and the player declining, so the team still can get draft pick compensation. In fact, teams actually must go through the formality of offering the arbitration, which of course the player cannot accept because he’s already signed with another team.
It’s not uncommon for a team to opt not to offer arbitration to a departing free agent, even if it means foregoing draft pick compensation, if the team is sufficiently concerned that the player will accept. A player who has accepted arbitration cannot be paid less than 80% of his previous annual salary, and it’s usually going to be the same salary or more — sometimes much more. It’s not uncommon for a player not to be worth anywhere close to what he would get in arbitration, particularly in the case of a player who was released mid-season and then picked up by another club for the minimum salary.
by Jay on
Aug 4, 2008 1:17 AM EDT
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Perfect. Sorry to be dense about it; thanks for your time.
by fleerdon on
Aug 4, 2008 10:08 AM EDT
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This is great… can we make this a sticky topic or something?
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on
Aug 5, 2008 5:09 PM EDT
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In other news, it looks like the Cardinals are keeping this guy:

by fleerdon on Aug 3, 2008 10:44 AM EDT 0 recs
Here’s Franklin Gutierrez’s line: .212/.257/.333. Ryan Garko: .243/.317/.356.
by odradek on
Aug 3, 2008 5:42 PM EDT
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As bad as Gutierrez has been, I still prefer him to Barton going forward. In any role. Garko, well, there aren’t any excuses for Garko that I’m able to offer. At least there isn’t any relationship between Garko and Barton’s roster spot… not that I’m sorry about Barton. We know he’s untalented, but it is a shame to lose an engineer. I admire engineers.
by jhon on
Aug 3, 2008 5:59 PM EDT
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I with the jhonster here. Gutierrez is younger (right?), has more power, and is a top of the line defender. Even if neither ever ascends further than reserve outfielder, Frank’s the better pick.
Although the choice the Indians made was more like Snyder over Barton than Guti over Barton. That may be less defensible.
by fleerdon on
Aug 3, 2008 7:53 PM EDT
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Although the choice the Indians made was more like Snyder over Barton
That is exactly the choice that was made. Gutz doesn’t have anything to do with this. You might as well post Asdrubal Cabrera’s batting line.
by afh4 on
Aug 3, 2008 9:01 PM EDT
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I wasn’t suggesting the Indians chose to keep Gutierrez over Barton, I was responding to Joeee’s “meh” about Barton’s offensive performance. I was trying to point out how truly awful Gutierrez and Garko have been. Most people seem to have abandoned hope on Garko, but there’s still some diehard optimism on Gutierrez. I had high hopes for Franklin, but he’s been pretty terrible this year. Now, if he really puts it all together, he has a shot at being Jason Michaels. And, yes, he is seven months younger than Barton.
by odradek on
Aug 3, 2008 10:31 PM EDT
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There’s optimism about Gutierrez because he still has some value when his hitting isn’t right. Garko is totally a dead weight if his average is down.
by Jay on
Aug 4, 2008 1:18 AM EDT
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Gutierrez is a very good fielder, but is that sufficient to keep him on a roster? Hitting the way he has this season? He still has some value from last year’s promise, but he can’t be good enough to keep as is, can he?
by odradek on
Aug 4, 2008 10:30 PM EDT
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Hello odradek,
As a reserve outfielder, and especially since he can play all 3 OFers, you might be able to keep him as is. It’s just disappointing in the sense that we were expecting much more ouf of Gutierrez than that (a power-hitting OFer who plays great defense, but that power really hasn’t manifested itself outside of a relatively small sample last season, and the plate discipline still hasn’t been all that strong for Gutz, which was a bit of a problem when he came over from the Dodgers in the Bradley trade – that’s why the Indians tinkered with his swing and approach when he came to our organization, but it still hasn’t helped him to be more selective and more consistent at the ML level offensively).
So, as a reserve outfielder, you could probably keep him as he is right now, but preferably, you’d like your 4th OFer to hit some as well, which Gutz has only shown in limited spurts (last season being the longest, most consistent spurt), so I don’t know if that would relegate Gutz to 5th OFer (or OFer who is mostly just brought in to shore up the late-inning defense and have limited ABs), and have Choo or Francisco be the 4th OFer that can hit a little more consistently, though neither are as good defensively as Gutz (with Choo being the better of the two between him and Francisco).
Therefore, I’m not sure if that could work or not roster-wise – as a 4th OFer defensively, certainly yes, but offensively, you’d like him to hit a little more. As a 5th OFer, he’d work, but do the Indians just want him as a 5th OFer? Again, not sure.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on
Aug 4, 2008 11:01 PM EDT
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You said it.
The other thing is, it’s not that easy to find outfielders who can really hit lefties well anyway — most of the best ones hit from the left side. So even if Gutierrez makes a weak platoon partner from the right, he’s still going to be as good vs LHP as most lefties and much, much better in the field.
by Jay on
Aug 4, 2008 11:47 PM EDT
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Just to be clear … the choice that was made was between possibly losing Barton and definitely losing Snyder. It isn’t clear to me that Snyder isn’t the better player anyway.
by Jay on
Aug 4, 2008 1:20 AM EDT
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While I was disappointed when we lost Barton, I feel better now because: (1) he has not put up great Ludwick-like numbers yet; (2) Crowe is hitting better, so he can replace Barton in our low-power speedy corner-OF prospect list; (3) the arrival and emergence of Laporta and Weglarz give hope that there will be power in LF at some point.
by kov on
Aug 4, 2008 10:54 AM EDT
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Just to clarify: I have no actual reports of this. I’m just guessing, because it’s August. If they’re willing to keep him this long, I don’t see what the point would be in sending him back now. Any argument or evidence to the contrary would interest me. A little.
by fleerdon on
Aug 3, 2008 10:05 PM EDT
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Byrd looked solid yesterday. I was way up in the cheap seats. It seemed like only two balls were hit on the ground yesterday. Mauer’s fly out to center was pretty sweet.
by mjschaefer on Aug 3, 2008 12:45 PM EDT 0 recs
It funny but the 5 tool system should be re-weighted for eye and plate disclipline.
Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic. - Robert S. Wieder
by jerseywahoo on Aug 3, 2008 9:40 PM EDT 0 recs









