I agree with most however i don’t believe we need a 1B we have garko who we know can hit he just has to work out a few mechanical things in his swing (he swings up on the ball) and even if Garko continues to freefall we have Martinez and possibly Blake. Which leaves a hole at 3rd and C. However if Shoppach has as good of a year as this maybe even shows more as he continues to play reguraly i think we are set at first base. That still leaves questions with the Closer and Rotation. We all hope Cliff Lee can continue his miracle year and fausto pitches like the 2007 fausto this would set up a 1-2 punch similar to 2007. We can’t count on Westbrook to be back strong and ready by the start of 09 and he will probably struggle as did Liriano. I see a lot out of anthony reyes and aaron laffey. however i think sowers and jackson are there just to fill a spot in the rotation. With this being said Jensen Lewis is still learning and so far he is showing great control and poise. He also knows how to use his emotions for him. Now regarding the outfield Fransisco is a great hitter and with a little plate control he could bat in the .300 range in 200+ AB he is batting .285. Grady is the center fielder leaving us a hole in RF i like Raul Ibanez and Manny but they are both just a dream with the small market baseball. I would also love to see them get bradley even though Wedge thinks he is a pain in the A**.

Hopeful 2009 Lineup:

1:Cliff Lee
2:Fausto Carmona
3:Anthony Reyes
4:Aaron Laffey
1-5:A possible trade or free agent prefered ben sheets or CC ( this could be just a dream)

1-Grady Sizemore(CF)/Milton Bradley(RF)
2-Grady Sizemore/Milton Bradley
3-Victor Martinez (1B/C)
4-Jhonny Peralta(SS/3B)
5-Travis Hafner(DH/1B)
6-Ben Fransisco(LF)
7-Casey Blake(3B/1B)
8-Kelly Shoppach©
9-Asdrubal Cabrera(2B/SS)

I used to agree. We’d have to be overwhelmed though, because Victor is not catching any more than 60% of the games next year.

Aren’t you ducking the really hard part of the question?

How so?

I really beg to differ.

For one thing, Shoppach’s value is going to be based on how well we can sell his value. He was considered an excellent prospect, rated somewhere between a plus and a plus-plus for both his power hitting and defense (both relative to position). With little opportunity, he’s done nothing but confirm those ratings, and what you end up with is a catcher with significantly more seasoning than wear-and-tear, basically setting him up for a great peak 28-30. He’ll be 29, but relative to other catchers, his knees will be 27.

When comparing across positions, you have to consider three things beyond the pure numbers. First is the difference in inherent value of having a player at each position. Second is the difference in replacement-level hitting between the two positions. Third is the quality of defense.

The first one, suffice it to say the difference is immense between C and RF. The second one, we can use VORPrate, so we’re not worried about the difference in playing time — Markakis is #21 in the AL with .305, but Shoppach is #27 with .269. So their production has been fairly close. The third is toughest — based on RZR and OOZ, Markakis is a bit above average this year, was one of the worst ones last year and one of the best in his rookie 2006. There are no good numbers for Shoppach, but I believe he will be scouted as a very strong defensive catcher, below the “elite” category but solidly above-average.

Combining the three, you have to consider the basic question of scarcity. The one guy is an average defender and an above-average (but not elite) hitter at an offensive position. The other guy is an above-average hitter and an above-average defender at a defensive position. The difference between these two player types in terms of pure scarcity is simply immense.

You tell me — who are the other catchers with Shoppach’s skill package that have been available? Sure, he’s playing over his head now, but so is Markakis. Maybe you didn’t notice, Alex Rios doesn’t look as good this year as he did last year.

If Boston knew what they know now about Lowell, Ramirez, and Beckett, I’m positive they do the deal again. Lowell and Beckett won them a freaking ring. Ramirez could have been a big upgrade over the likes of Julio Lugo at SS, but Lowell had a MVP like season and Beckett turned their rotation into a huge strength, especially in the playoffs.

Remembering the huge amounts of crap I took for suggesting that there wasn’t much difference between Buchholz and Sowers as prospects. What was that, all of two months ago or something?

Cincinatti Reds prospects are overrated. See: Homer Bailey.

I imagine the lack of interest in Dunn has to do with the feeling that he won’t be a very good value sign, as he has already peaked and isn’t likely to age well, due to the dreaded old players skills. With that said, if this Ricciardi sentiment is felt throughout baseball and his market is rather tepid, then I’m all for taking a look.

Hello nickjs21,

No offense, but I can think of a few reasons why I wouldn’t go after Dunn (and for the record, I haven’t been drinking the Riccardi Kool-Aid – I wasn’t fond of Dunn even before the incident with Riccardi).

1. You mentioned this one – price – he’ll cost several million, maybe even $10 mill./year, because some GM will probably be eager to make a big splash and Dunn will be recognized as a big name/big slugger type. Preferably, I’d prefer the Indians to not be that team (and I doubt that they will – there are other concerns that need to be addressed).

2. Stemming from #1, for all the criticism against Francisco, realize that he is on pace to hit between 18-20 HRs this season, and that was mostly batting 3rd, where he really should not be, since he doesn’t project as a #3 hitter. Put him down in the bottom part of the order where he’ll likely be overlooked (due to the presence of guys like Martinez, Hafner, and Peralta in the middle of the order, along with guys like Garko, etc.), and it wouldn’t surprise me if Francisco approaches 25 or even 30 HRs over a full season. Francisco doesn’t miss many mistake pitches, and it’s likely he’ll get more mistake pitches down in the lower part of the order where the focus is primarily on him, but on guys like Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez, Peralta, etc.

Therefore, the offense in LF would likely be fine for next year, enough so where we can put that $20 million to better use – such as another solid starter or a good to great closer. Perhaps we could use it to upgrade 1B or especially 3B, since Marte is still a big question mark.

Francisco may not be “sexy” for LF, but he’s arguably as good or better than we could get out there for the cost. It’s not like Francisco needs to be upgraded when we have bigger concerns on our ballclub in my opinion.

3. Another complaint about Francisco is his defense in LF – personally, I don’t see it. Is he the best OFer I’ve ever seen? No. Is he the worst I’ve seen out there? Definitely no – he’s certainly better than Dellucci, is relatively on par with Michaels, and almost certainly would be better than Dunn, who is poor in LF (and I’ve heard the arguments about Dunn can move out there, etc. – he still does not play LF well, certainly not as well as Francisco), so our OF defense would suffer, and that’s been moreless a strength this year, with Grady, Choo/Gutz, and Francisco.

Therefore, I don’t see why we have to go after Dunn – personally, I’m not fond of guys who hit an occasional HR, but disappear for games or even weeks at a time. I wasn’t fond of Thome doing that, and Thome was better than Dunn (and Thome especially is now because he’s using the whole field again, something he wasn’t doing as much in his latter years here, mostly because of Manuel’s “Swing for the fences, son!” mantra. From what I’ve seen of Dunn, he pulls the ball almost all the time, which is why he’s prone for the huge strikeout numbers he puts up and his frequent slumps, leading to his low BA).

One major complaint in Cincinnati was Dunn failing to get runners in from 3rd with less than 2 outs, something we’ve complained about on numerous occasions over the last few years. With Dunn, the instances would likely increase a lot more – another reason why I don’t think investing a lot of money in Dunn would be the best move for the Indians.

Just my 2 cents – no offense.

It may not speak to his market, but it does speak to Dunn’s (or his agent’s) expectations of what the market will be for Dunn. I agree that it will be hard to value Dunn’s skill set properly because a lot of the major players may be scared off by his low batting average. I would love to see Dunn in left field Cleveland – his high OBP and power are impressive, even if Reds fans have tired of his all or nothing tendencies. I toss this out there to say that Dunn is expecting a huge contract, and we all know the Indians have not traditionally been a team that will give out that kind of contract to a free agent. Maybe Shapiro will surprise us all, or Dunn will find the market for his services is not what he expects it to be.

why? If you are going to pay anyone, wouldn’t it be a player that has over 150 games each of the last 5, is 28 years old, gets on base 38% of the time in bad lineups, and hit 40 bombs each of the last 5 years??

I’ll admit 100 M is a little high, but I just don’t think he’ll end up getting that over 6 years. I’ll say it again 5 years, 15 per, I’d do it.

Carpal tunnel syndrome, you mean.

Nope. The deal wasn’t done then, and neither the Tigers nor Willis had any leverage to demand an extension as a condition of the trade. It was just your classic Matt Lawton Mistake.