Game One Hundred Eleven: Indians 5, Rays 2

by Ryan on Aug 4, 2008 11:29 PM EDT in Game Recaps Comment 31 comments

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Cliff Lee	.207	Ryan Garko	-.073
David Dellucci	.185	Andy Marte	-.055
Rafael Perez	.099	Jhonny Peralta	-.034

On a team that's been a lost cause for almost two months, a Cliff Lee start is a most welcome escape from reality. Lee isn't the pitcher he was early in the season, but that makes these workmanlike starts even more impressive; he's not just successful when he has his best stuff. He struggled to get through 7 innings, and had several major jams to work out of, including his last inning of work. Getting out of that jam, which included facing the middle of the Rays' order for the fourth time, was impressive in how quickly it was diffused; after giving up two singles up the middle, he got both Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria to pop out, and then got defensive help from Asdrubal Cabrera on a Dioner Navarro grounder to end the inning.

Every time I see Franklin Gutierrez make a difficult outfield play seem routine, I think of how rare an all-around baseball player is to come by. Even though Gutierrez is probably one of the five best defensive outfielders in baseball, he's not going to start anywhere with the way he's hitting, not even as a center fielder. His defense should keep giving him chances to prove he can hit, but this season was his best opportunity to cement a starting job. Unless he goes absolutely nuts between now and the end of the season, he's a reserve outfielder no matter which team he plays for next season.

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Rafael Perez

Does his two inning save mean anything? Kobayashi could have been brought in for the ninth, and hasn’t pitched in a while.

by DITO on Aug 5, 2008 8:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Wedge made a comment the other day that there is no set closer. It will be a day to day thing.

Maybe we will go old school and start bringing in closers in the 7th and 8th innings and have them finish out games.

by Toxicadam on Aug 5, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don’t think eric karabell will find your question here. i’d just email him directly.

by Brick. on Aug 5, 2008 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

rec for mentioning that guy, who i can not stand.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Aug 5, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps Perez will become the de facto closer, but certainly won’t be used like a Proven Closer (in every and all save situation). Wedge stuck with him because (a) Perez usually goes multiple innings anyway, (2) he was very effective in the eighth inning, and (3) didn’t throw very many pitches in the eighth.

Now it would be nice to imagine Wedge utilizing observations in addition to past performance to determine how his relievers are utilized going forward, but alas, this flexibility only applies when the Indians are not contending.

by Ryan on Aug 5, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cliff Lee’s season has been very very good. It’s a little strange….after so many season’s without any truly impressive starting pitchers, we’ve had an abundance of late. Sabathia’s 2006 and 2007 seasons, Fausto’s 2007, and now Lee’s 2008. All of them fantastic.

by APV on Aug 5, 2008 8:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And Millwood in 2005.

by Jay on Aug 5, 2008 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He doesn’t count, he’s not a true Indian.

You have no idea the physical toll that three vasectomies have on a person

by jakesinger777 on Aug 5, 2008 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Lee in 2005.

by oxforddave on Aug 5, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, Lee in 2005 was very good but not fantastic. His ERA+ was only 111. I know he had that nice record and finished 4th in Cy Young balloting, but he didn’t really deserve that.

Millwood’s ERA+ that year was 146. That’s fantastic. And he was only 6th for the Cy Young.

The Shin-Soo Choo of LGT.

by Buckeye Brad on Aug 5, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jay knew better than to take the bate. Your ERA and W numbers are correct; Lee was luckier in wins (19 vs 9), Millwood luckier in stranding runners (ERA numbers you posted). But look at the basic pitching stats; one is Lee and the other is Millwood. Can you tell me off hand who was who, and whether A was better than B or vice versa?

IP        H      HR  BB  K
A 202.0  194   22   52  143
B 192.0  182   20   52  146

by oxforddave on Aug 5, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For some reason the numbers didn’t post. Here they are.
IP H HR BB K
A 202.0 194 22 52 143
B 192.0 182 20 52 146

by oxforddave on Aug 5, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just an FYI. If you put a space before any text, it give you that wierd gray box.

like this

by Toxicadam on Aug 5, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was about to post this for you, actually.

Having said that — Lee’s 2005 is underrated somewhat, but only by those who complain that it was overrated vastly — Lee’s 2005 rates as a very good season but not a remarkable one.

I think the best way to show these season relative to one another is by using PRC, which generally is based on runs allowed, but also gives credit for having strong peripherals. It’s also a counting stat, so the fact that some of these seasons were 29-30 starts rather than 33-34 is taken into account, as is all-around innings-eating.

135. Lee 2008 (on pace, he currently has 93)
131. Sabathia 2007
127. Sabathia 2008 (on pace, he currently has 56 with the Indians + 34 with the Brewers)
116. Carmona 2007

101. Westbrook 2004
99, Sabathia 2006
97. Millwood 2005

87. Sabathia 2004
85. Betancourt 2007
85. Lee 2005
83. Westbrook 2006
82. Sabathia 2005

I put them into clusters as I felt was appropriate. Everything else is 72 or less, and no other starter will get past 55 this season.

Lee 2005 comes out as the 9th best season by an Indians starter since 2004, sitting comfortably with Westbrook in his good-not-great 2006 and Sabathia in his pre-awesome stage. My offering of Millwood was perhaps out of line, as his 2005 season slots into the next tier, along with Westbrook’s breakout 2004 and Sabathia’s late-season emergence as an ace in 2006.

Lee 2005 comes out as 7th in FIP and 11th in xFIP, so I don’t think it’s underrating it to put it at 9th. (FIP and xFIP have one significant weakness, which is that they substantially penalize extreme groundballers, by the way, which significantly skews these rankings to Lee’s benefit.)

So anyway, Dave … it’s time to drop the Lee 2005 martyrdom. Leaving aside the ERA, he was 16th in the league in PRC, 10th in FIP, 22nd in xFIP. Very good season, yes. Underrated by the casual staterazzi, yes. Outstanding, outlier season in which an Indians starter was a terrifying scourge of the league? Obviously not.

by Jay on Aug 5, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

“for fun” ... since Betancourt snuck onto the list, I’ll give you all the top relief performances …

85. Betancourt 2007

49. Perez 2007
44. Riske 2004 (perenially underrated!)
42. Perez 2008 (on pace, currently has 30)
41. Howry 2005
40. Betancourt 2005
39. Wickman 2005

35. Riske 2005 (will you look at that ridiculous 2005 pen?)
34. Betancourt 2004
33. Miller 2004
29. Howry 2004
28. Betancourt 2006
28. Rhodes 2005
28. Kobayashi 2008 (on pace, currently has 20)

Now grouped by year:

42. Perez 2008 (on pace, currently has 30)
28. Kobayashi 2008 (on pace, currently has 20)

85. Betancourt 2007
49. Perez 2007
24. Borowski
24. Mastny
23. Lewis
23. Mastny

28. Betancourt 2006

41. Howry 2005
40. Betancourt 2005
39. Wickman 2005
35. Riske 2005
28. Rhodes 2005
24. Miller 2005
24. Cabrera 2005

44. Riske 2004
34. Betancourt 2004
33. Miller 2004
29. Howry 2004

by Jay on Aug 5, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

?

24. Mastny
23. Lewis
23. Mastny

by Brick. on Aug 5, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m guessing the second Mastny should be Fultz.

by FredOx on Aug 5, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i couldn’t figure out who it could be. thanks.

by Brick. on Aug 5, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s right.

by Jay on Aug 5, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting to see that Perez has been pitching well enough to pull fairly close to last year’s numbers.

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Aug 5, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting. So the most valuable players in the Coco trade might be Shoppach and Riske?

by odradek on Aug 5, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s a stretch, but not that big of a stretch.

by Jay on Aug 6, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Got any numbers on Colon’s best seasons with the Tribe (including his season split between Cleveland/Montreal)?

by APV on Aug 5, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The THT data only go back to 2004. It’s certainly possible to estimate Colon’s PRC, but some of the adjustments are described in the THT article less than specifically.

by FredOx on Aug 5, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Lee martyrdom, as you point out Lee wasn’t superb in 2005, just very good and the equal of Millwood.

by oxforddave on Aug 5, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If by “equal” you mean “within two wins as good,” then yes, the equal of Millwood.

It’s sensible to account for luck, but it’s not sensible to absolve pitchers of all responsibility for allowing baserunners and runs scored on batted balls.

by Jay on Aug 5, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, 2 wins better. Oh, wait, it was actually 10 wins.

by oxforddave on Aug 5, 2008 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m talking about Wins that actually count in the standings — team Wins — not “wins” that are meaninglessly arbitrarily awarded to pitchers regardless of their contribution.

by Jay on Aug 6, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not that this means anything Jay, but I compared the above seasons using average Gamescore for the season instead of PRC (obviously I didn’t look at Betancourt).

Interesting results:

Lee 08 60.18
CC 08* 59.00
CC 07 57.79
CC 06 57.36
Carmona 07 56.16
Millwood 05 56.07
CC 05 53.13
Lee 05 52.97
Westbrook 04 52.57
CC 04 52.17
Westbrook 06 48.31

*This is all of his starts for 08, in 18 starts with the Tribe, average of 56.00, in 6 starts with the Brewers 68.00

Please note than an average start is 50. See here

by talonk on Aug 5, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problem with that is, no credit for starting more games.

A better way might be to add up total game score for the season, minus 40-per-start (representing a sub-marginal start).

by Jay on Aug 5, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, that having more starts is more valuable. Other than this years data, all of the above players had 28-34 starts. So they are all within 6 starts of each other.

I am not sure what you meant by minus 40 since an average game score is 50 and if a pitcher had a real blown up game of 6 ER in one inning, they would end up around 10-15 for a game score. So I will normalize all the pitchers except for 2008 to 34 starts. If they only had 30 starts, I will add 180 (45×4) and recalculate, etc.

So what I will do is recalculate everyone to 34 starts, but for the players who do not have 34 starts, I will add in a score of 45 for those starts (45 being just below average:

CC 07 57.79
Carmona 07 55.50
CC 06 55.18
Millwood 05 54.76
Lee 05 52.50
CC 05 52.41
Westbrook 04 51.68
CC 04 51.32
Westbrook 06 48.12

Didn’t really change the order too much. Results are pretty much the same.

by talonk on Aug 5, 2008 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs