State of the Rotation for 2009
by Logodaedalus on Sep 16, 2008 3:40 PM EDT
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PrintThis has obviously been discussed many times in various threads, but I thought I'd create an explicit topic for it. How do you see the starting rotation shaping up for next year/what rotation would you like to see?
Most seem to agree that Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona will occupy the #1 and #2 spots at the outset, barring some blockbuster signing/trade (an unlikely event, by most accounts), although I've heard doubt among some about whether Carmona will rebound adequately to be the #2. I'll go out on a limb and say that Carmona being the Game 2 starter will be contingent on him showing a substantial return toward his 2007 mechanics and control during spring training. Personally, I'm optimistic on this front, as I think no small part of his control problems this season can be attributed to his injury and subsequent lost time. His high walk rate before the injury may remain something of a concern, however. In any event, the amount of improvement he will need to display in order to hang on to the #2 mantle is obviously dependent on who else could conceivably bump him. I don't see anyone internal right now that is likely to set the bar too high for Carmona, if for no other reason than unprovenness over any substantial stretch.
The biggest questions, then, are a) what will the ranking of the internal options be? and b) who would be good options for acquisitions, either through FA or trade?
The list of internal candidates to occupy #3-5 appears to include (in alphabetical order): David Huff, Zach Jackson, Aaron Laffey, the recently impressive Scott Lewis, Anthony Reyes and Jeremy Sowers. Adam Miller is another possibility, although it appears to be increasingly likely that he'll be shifted to relief work. I doubt anyone considers Brian Bullington a serious candidate, but feel free to argue on his behalf. Have I left anyone off?
I doubt Zach Jackson will receive much serious consideration, barring some stellar performances between now and the end of the Cactus League season. I suspect the top two (i.e. those who would make the opening day roster assuming one external acquisition) of the remaining 5 will be Laffey and Reyes, probably in that order, but easily swappable dependent on spring performance, with either Huff or Sowers rounding out the last spot if there is no new acquisition. Although I feel an affinity, and hope the best, for Sowers, I'm not convinced he's going to figure out how to return to a solid, major league viable form, let alone his own 2006 form any time soon, and that Huff may deserve a look. That said, more long term practical considerations (e.g. option situations) may come into play, and give Sowers the edge. Scott Lewis has been impressive in his first two starts, but his very limited playing time at Triple-A will probably mean that he starts 2009 there.
The second issue is what new acquisitions can we reasonably hope for? Top of the line FA acquisitions like Sabathia are obviously unrealistic for our market. Probably even someone like A.J. Burnett would be too steep, though if other holes can be filled cheaply enough, he might be a possibility (I doubt, for example, that he will command as much as we offered Sabathia), and at 32 makes something like a 3-year deal perhaps reasonable. If the team has enough confidence in guys like Laffey and Reyes, then a FA acquisition of Paul Byrd/Scott Elarton caliber, such as Derek Lowe, to be a #4 or #5 guy may be a possibility. If the team wants to add a #2 or #3 type starter, however, I would assume it will have to come via trade, likely moving outfield depth (e.g. Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez) and/or a multiple player package including relatively young, cheap AAAA types (e.g. Josh Barfield, Michael Aubrey, Ryan Garko) and/or prospects. I have to imagine Shin-Soo Choo will be floated as well if the return is good enough.
Zach Greinke is one attractive possibility that's been discussed, although it's unclear what the asking price would be. He may be worth a high price (e.g. Choo), but the respective number of years must be taken into account. Admittedly, I don't pay enough attention to other teams and their guys' contracts and organizational needs to offer up many of my own suggestions on this front.
Summary: I see the rotation looking one of two ways.
1. Cliff Lee
2. Fausto Carmona
3a. Burnett/Greinke/other
3b/4a. Aaron Laffey
4b/5a. Anthony Reyes
5b. Lowe/other
(6.) Jeremy Sowers
(7.) David Huff
(8.) Scott Lewis
with the actual order of 6-8 having a great deal of flexibility depending on performance and when they're called on. And, of course, any of those guys could be part of a trade for an infielder (or even a closer?).
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i was way more excited for laffey last year than this upcoming year
by Gradyforpresident on Sep 16, 2008 3:48 PM EDT reply actions
I’m hoping that his problems in his last few starts represent an inevitable adjustment (hitters to him and him to a ML schedule) blip. He could be on a Sowersian path, but I don’t want to jump to that conclusion yet.
by Logodaedalus on Sep 16, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Understandable, but not rational — his overall numbers were better this year, y’know.
I think he got tired late in the year, but for the first three months he was terrific, the best he’s ever been.
of course it’s not rational. i was drunk texting people about laffey last offseason and leaving drunk dials about him. it’s not rational at all.
by Gradyforpresident on Sep 16, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to disagree with you on Laffey’s overall numbers being better.
At the major league level last year, Laffey’s RA was 4.74 over 49.3 IP. He had a GB% of 62.4. His K rate was 4.7. His walk rate was 2.2. Over two levels in the minors, his RA was 3.36 over 131.1 IP. His GO/AO was 2.64. His K rate was 6.79 and his BB rate was 2.05.
This year at the major league level, his RA 5.00 over 93.7 IP. GB% was 51.1, K rate of 4.1, BB rate of 2.9. At the minor league level, Laffey pitched 61.2 Innings at Buffalo with a RA of 4.85. His GO/AO was 1.67. His K rate was 6.9 and his BB rate was 2.64.
I don’t see what it is that you like more about the ‘08 season. Frankly, I’m concerned about the decrease in his GB rate.
Damn, I knew someone was gonna figure out that his peripherals were worse. Odds are, that GB rate was not sustainable for him, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be an extreme groundballer anyway.
The main thing I would say is that both in the majors and in the minors, his early season numbers are a lot better than his late season numbers, which indicates something got out of whack, fatigue, whatever. Triple-A: In April, his K/BB was 3.33, but in August, it was just 2.25. Majors: His ERA was 2.83 in his first 11 starts, 8.37 in his last five.
So it’s not like there was just some random distribution of performances here … his season has a meaningful narrative that suggests that one or more specific things went wrong, not just that he’s only generally as good as his overall numbers.
So here’s what there is to like: A young pitcher who in his first 16 starts of the year (minors and majors) showed more signs of being able to be a highly effective pitcher. After those first 16 starts, things went off the rails, but we have a very fine medical staff and (as should be obvious by now) one the game’s best pitching coaches — so there’s plenty of reason to think the ship can be righted.
So in one sense, I’m looking at that first half and seeing that Laffey’s upside may be higher than we thought it was a year ago — and in another sense, I’m simply seeing the glass being half-full (that being the first half). As is often the case, this is a situation where the overall numbers don’t really tell the whole story.
Hello everyone,
Recall also that he was shut down with an elbow problem – I don’t know if that was a lingering problem for him, perhaps maybe due to his tiring throughout the season, but that too could have affected him, especially at AAA, where he had been close to dominating in the past.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Is it realistic to sign Derek Lowe? He’s pretty underrated, and he might be within the Indians’ budget (both for years and dollars).
Actually, now that I look at his numbers, I may not have been giving him enough credit. BB/9 under 2 this year, ERA under 3.5. Opposing OPS is only .650… He presumably slots above #5. I don’t know what he’s likely to command, $/years-wise…
by Logodaedalus on Sep 16, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Although, enthusiasm about those numbers should be tempered by the low quality of the division he’s playing in.
by Logodaedalus on Sep 16, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
And the fact that he gets to pitch half his games in Dodger Stadium. That said, I’d be very happy if we signed him. Lee/Carmona/Lowe/Laffey/Sowers with Huff, Reyes, and Scott Lewis in Columbus would be fine with me.
Here’s your #2 for next year: Anthony Reyes. The big IF with Reyes, like Miller, is his durability. I think if he gets on a good program this winter he could suprise a lot of folks.
And I’m still high on Laffey, I just wish he had another 3 mph on his fastball.
Carmona’s a mystery to me. I cannot for the life of me figure out why he was so wild early on in the season, unless he had some prodromal injury. I sure hope he lights it up next spring.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
I like Reyes as much as anyone, but #2 seems like awfully lofty expectations. What are you basing that on?
by Peter Bendix on Sep 16, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m watching the guy pitch. I love his stuff. I love his make-up. I don’t like his fragility, but I think that he might be able to over come that.
But I’m also the guy that thought that Ron Villone was headed to the HoF.
Reyes ‘08 is my Lee ’07. I think that he’s gonna suprise a lot of people – including the brain trust back in St. Louis.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
I agree with you that he’s better than St Louis ever gave him credit for (apparently he and Dave Duncan clashed a few times). But, he seems like a 3/4, at best. Which, of course, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with.
by Peter Bendix on Sep 16, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I am absolutely not dedicated to the notion that Laffey would be ahead of Reyes. It’s entirely likely that it will be the other way around. I think it’s going to take some further struggles and some further impressiveness by Carmona and Reyes respectively to flip them, though.
by Logodaedalus on Sep 16, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m worried that the league figured out that Carmona misses the strike zone too often with his sinker and slider – particularly when his emotions get the better of him. They’re waiting on his fastball and taking walks if he goes to his other pitches.
In 2007, he walked 61 batters in 215 innings. So far this year, he’s walked 69 in 113.3. His K’s per 9 innings are down too – 5.7 in 2007 to 4.1 in 2008. It seems he’s not fooling people with balls that are breaking out of the zone the way he did last season.
I suppose the good news on that front is that the issue can be addressed either by changing his approach or by getting him to throw those pitches for strikes – or preferably both.
"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.
Make sure you bookmark my endorsement of Garko if you do. That one’s pretty far out there.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
Also, we need to check back in 2018 and see if your analysis of Lee v. Savathia was correct.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Sep 17, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m assuming the Indians will bank on Lee as #1 and Carmona as #2 (although I share people’s concerns about Carmona’s command, he was awfully good last year — they’ve got to be hoping he’ll find it again). I’d guess they’ve pencilled in Reyes for one spot; he’s been good in his audition this year. Sowers or Laffey or Huff got one other spot. I’d bet on Laffey, unless he’s hurt. I think they’ll sign a veteran guy so that they have depth (i.e., so they have two of Sowers/Huff/Laffey at Buffalo). Not much out there: Derek Lowe would be okay, so would Jon Garland (too expensive, probably). Oliver Perez is a possibility (but he’s lefty and he’s Oliver Perez). Randy Wolf — I hope not. A trade is not out of the question at all, given this, but I don’t think they’re going to tear up the roster to get a fourth or fifth starter. I think someone of the Wolf/Perez ilk is most likely.
Hello peter,
While I still think Huff would get a shot to make the team out of ST, I think from the talk and results Scott Lewis has put up in his brief time in the Majors, unless his service time clock only starts if he’s on the roster outside of September (I’m not sure on this), I would think Lewis would have probably as good a chance as Huff making the team out of ST.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Service time counts in September in every sense except rookie status.
Bottom line, Lewis is on the 40-man and Huff isn’t, and that won’t change between now and the start of April. That gives the team a lot of reasons — not really money, just the flexibility of the roster — to favor Lewis (and Reyes and even Jackson) over Huff out of Spring Training.
I’m not sure what exactly you were getting at re: Lewis’ service time, but the Indians have little incentive to be concerned with that. He’s just a little too old (turns 25 next week) and a little too injury prone to be worried about when he reaches arbitration (probably after 2012) or free agency (probably after his 32nd birthday).
Hello Jay,
Thanks for clearing that up – my main point regarding Lewis’ service time was whether they would hold him back in Columbus to begin next season because of his service time and I wasn’t sure if his service time clock had started due to his being called up in September, but now I know it was.
I agree that Lewis’ age would likely preclude the Indians worrying about his arbitration status due to his service time. As a result, and because of the reasons you mentioned, I would think Lewis would be a likelier bet to make the rotation out of ST than Huff would, though that doesn’t mean Huff couldn’t impress them enough in ST to consider them taking Huff north (or northeast now, technically, being that we’ll be in Arizona :-) too, but I agree Lewis would be the likelier bet to make the rotation out of ST and Reyes and Jackson would get every opportunity to make the rotation before they tab Huff to be part of the ML rotation.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
OT: there’s a McDonald’s ad on the side of this page right now that says “It’s not just a job, it’s a career.” And below: “Discover a career that fulfills your potential”, with a little arrow pointing to a picture of a smiling kid in a suit.
If I didn’t know any better, I’d swear this was a parody. “Fulfills your potential”. Hilarious.
I don’t think there’s a doubt the FO will sign a starter (maybe two) this offseason. They cannot go into 2009 with the same candidates they have now for the rotation. Period.
I like Perez and Wolf, but do you think Lohse will ask for too much money? That’s a perfect #3 in my book.
And I am not high on Reyes. The history bothers me, and he has no options so it’s “make the team or you’re gone” scenario for him this spring. If they sign two FA’s, he’s going to have to wow them to make the team.
Lewis, though, is impressing me. He looked good in the minors this year and is proving it the last two starts. He’s showing that he can pitch in the majors when Huff has yet to have the chance. He can hold the #5 spot until Huff is “ready” (FO term for making sure Huff doesn’t earn enough service time) in mid-2009 and then shuffling can begin as needed.
Kyle Lohse?!?! No, please dear God, no! Hide the women and children, no!
Platooning with Jamey Carroll is not freedom. Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Sep 17, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we should stay far, far away from Lohse, unless we can sign him for the kind of contract that the Cardinals did (1 year, $4.25 mil).
I worry that Lewis may have a propensity to give up homers, judging by his fly ball tendencies in the minors. However, he may be able to hold down the #5 spot anyway.
I still think a rotation of Lee, Carmona, Lowe, Laffey, and Reyes would actually be pretty good, with Westbrook, Huff, Lewis, and Miller waiting in the wings.
I agree entirely. I have a feeling, though, that Lowe will command a price that we cannot afford (or, rather, aren’t willing to pay).
Lewis is pretty inexperienced for them to count on him. I would guess, given their usual pattern, that they’d prefer to start him at AAA and keep him in reserve. I also worry about the fly ball tendencies — in his start against Baltimore, he was pitching up in the zone a lot. It worked, but eventually the league will figure it out, if that’s his pattern, and either lay off stuff that’s actually high or start looking for pitches in that area.
I notice you’ve omitted Sowers from your list. An oversight, no?
Perhaps more of a Freudian slip than an oversight. I didn’t mean to omit him, but I’m also pretty low on Sowers.
Perhaps I’m naive, but I think Derek Lowe is seriously underrated, and therefore may be within our price range. 3 years/$35 mil?
by Peter Bendix on Sep 17, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know about Lowe. He’s currently getting $10 million and pitched pretty well this year, albeit for the Dodgers in the NL in a pitcher-friendly stadium. Considering that Carlos Silva is getting $8+ million this year, you’d have to think that someone would go over the top for Lowe.
Another thought. Would they bring Byrd back? I’m not sure I’d want to spend my money that way, but he was pretty durable and was a decent back of the rotation starter (occasionally better than decent).
Isn’t Scott Lewis basically Byrd, but with more upside and cheaper? I think that if we’re going to sign a pitcher, it’ll either be for a very small, incentive-based contract (reclamation project), or a true middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.
by Peter Bendix on Sep 17, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Byrd’s right-handed and experienced, which may matter to a team deep in inexperienced lefties. But, I don’t really disagree. I think they may go after a closer (Shapiro as much as said so), so that may be where their “big-money” goes, which won’t leave enough for a middle of the rotation guy, I suspect. If they can’t get the closer, then you may be right.
You’re probably right, but we’re also talking about a 35-year old pitcher. And I personally think that the free agent market is going to be less ridiculous than in past years – partly due to the poor economy, partly due to teams wising up and using restraint, and partly due to the fact that the Big Boys are going to exhaust themselves spending on Teixeira, Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett, and Perez, perhaps (hopefully) leaving a bear market for mid-level free agents.
by Peter Bendix on Sep 17, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s baseball’s version of trickle down economics. The Teixeira’ and Sabathia’s set the upper limit and the next tier guys look for ~60-70% of that upper limit. You now, “when the tide rises all the boats go up”. And since Little Lord Stienbrenner’s gonna be opening his $2B Baseball Place next year and has to put a lot of big butts in $2k seats to make it a success. Ol’ Hank’ll be over payin’ by plenty this winter drivin’ up the price of even guys like Byrd.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
True enough. But, sometimes, as with ACTUAL trickle-down economics, the guys at the bottom don’t get the bump they expected. Look at how many marginal free agents this year had to wait until the last minute, or like Lofton, never got signed at all. The Indians may wind up playing that game — cleaning up under-priced scraps in February or March.
Yeah, but it generally works the other way. Generally the second-tier guys are getting 60-70% but are only worth about 20% of what an elite player is worth compared to a marginal (or replacement) player — those third-tier guys generally are the very worst values on the free agent market.
Guys like Lofton are out of work because there literally is no demand for them — in the post-PED era, clubs are finally figuring out that they probably have a Ben Francisco already hanging around in their system, and he’s probably about as good as an aging Lofton, not to mention there’s an opportunity benefit in being able to audition several young players.
“Trickle-down economics” is a more of a loaded-political expression than a practical economic theory.
As always, it’s all about supply and demand. There aren’t a lot of Lowe’s out there, and there is much need (wouldn’t Boston just love to have him back). the demand will be very high. The price will be high. At his age I think he’ll treat this as his last shot at a long term deal. I betcha he asks for, and gets, 5 years.
I agree. I don’t think Lowe will be one of the ones hanging around waiting for a contract. Byrd might be.
I don’t think Lowe’s out of the question, but he’d be expensive. We’d have to outbid the likes of Texas, Houston, Colorado… I don’t see it happening.
Byrd or Moyer, maybe, but do we need a RHP that bad?
I understand the idea of trickle-down economics, especially in baseball. However, I do wonder if we are starting to see a market readjustment.
Take Kyle Lohse, for example. He signed a one-year deal worth $4.75 mil this season. That is far, far less than most people expected him to get. And he wasn’t coming off of an injury-ravaged season, or even a particularly bad season. There simply wasn’t much demand for his services.
Obviously, Derek Lowe is better than Kyle Lohse. But there are a fair amount of at-least-decent free agent starters out there, and I don’t know as there are going to be many mid-level teams lining up to sign them to exhorbinant contracts. Derek Lowe won’t be cheap, but he also probably won’t get the outrageous contract that we’ve come to expect since 2000.
by Peter Bendix on Sep 17, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
OK Pete, then whattya think Byrd’s gonna sign for next season. I’m betting something north of $7M for a year or $12M for two. You want the over or the under?
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
You’re on. But you’re gonna hafta come to Maui to collect – a cold six-pack of Kona Longboard – I won’t be traveling to the mainland much anymore.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
So I get to win a bet AND go to Hawaii? Sounds like quite a good deal :)
by Peter Bendix on Sep 18, 2008 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you really see guys like Burnett and Perez as way over the top contract only-the-Yankees-and-Red-Sox-can-afford types? I probably was a bit too easygoing in my assessment of Burnett, but I certainly wouldn’t put him on a list with Teixeira, CC and Sheets… I dunno, maybe I have an undervalued sense of him because he pitches on a team with Halladay, but his numbers this year, while solid, are far from Sabathiaesque…. He strikes out a lot of guys (over 1/inning), but his walk rates are…eh (3.58 BB/9). His unadjusted ERA is over 4, which isn’t bad for where he plays, but it’s not inspiring of an Ace label.
by Logodaedalus on Sep 17, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Burnett’s xFIPs since coming to Toronto in 2006:
3.85
3.70
3.66
Compare that to Sabathia (3.85, 3.63, 3.47 w/Cle and 2.92 with Mil), Sheets (3.13, 4.49, 4.12). Yes, there are injury concerns with Burnett, but he’s over 200 innings this year. Obviously, Sabathia is a better bet, but I’d take Burnett over Sheets in a heartbeat.
I am not a big fan of Oliver Perez, but some team is going to take a look at his ERA, his strikeouts, and his “potential”, and probably overpay. I bet Perez gets more money than Lowe (although this will partly be because of their respective ages).
by Peter Bendix on Sep 17, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m of the opinion that no one free agent starter in our price range is going to make enough of a difference to justify the investment. I don’t think, over the course of a season, it’s worth it to pay eight figures for a marginal improvement over the guys we’ve got, and I’m unconvinced we’d be able to afford anybody better than “marginal improvement over the guys we’ve got.” I’m holding out hope that one of our young studs (RondonRondonRondon) will wake up a major league starter next spring.
by fleerdon on Sep 17, 2008 1:26 PM EDT reply actions
Our buddy Paul Cousineau has his take on the Indians’ rotation next year. He discusses a lot of the issues that we’ve written about here, but it’s a good read nonetheless. Here is a short snippet:
Before going any further, let’s take a quick look at what the Indians’ rotation figures to look like without any moves being made this off-season, and exactly how deep the arms look to go. As you view the list, realize that the names after #2 are not listed in order of preference, but that Anthony Reyes and Zach Jackson are both out of options and figure to break camp with the team as long as they are deemed to be somewhat valuable to the team and Jake Westbrook’s name is listed where it is with the assumption that he will be healthy and available at some point after the All-Star Break in 2009.
#1 – Lee
#2 – Carmona
#3 – Laffey
#4 – Reyes
#5 – Huff
#6 – Jackson
#7 – Sowers
#8 – Lewis
#9 – Westbrook
That list does not take into account the variables of a healthy Atom Miller (who looks destined for the bullpen) and the mystery that is Chuck Lofgren or the organizational soldiers like Frank Herrmann, Kevin Dixon, and Ryan Edell, nor the high-ceiling pitchers like Kelvin De La Cruz and Hector Rondon who may be a few years away from contributing at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.
His take on Scott Lewis:
Which brings it all back to where this started, as Scott Lewis has suddenly thrust himself into the mix on the basis of two starts, causing some to come to the premature conclusion that Lewis “has to be in the rotation…somewhere” for 2009. It’s a premature notion as for years Indians fans have fumed over and over again that “some soft-tossing LHP just up from the minors just baffled the Indians’ hitters” whenever some unknown kid from AAA is promoted to face the Indians and completely shuts them down.
Other foot, meet Scott Lewis.
Of course, we all know that two starts does not tell us much about a pitcher. I liked the comparison to many soft-tossing lefties just brought up from AAA that have shut down Indians hitters in the past. Is Lewis one of those guys, who hitters will figure out after more time in the majors (Sowers?), or is he really quality #4 or #5 starter? Only time will tell.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
It is a SSS, but:
Sowers’ strikeout rates in the minors:
2008 – 6.38 (in AAA)
2007 – 5.68 (in AAA)
2006 – 4.99 (in AAA)
Lewis’s strikeout rates in the minors:
2008 – 7.88 in AAA, 7.49 in AA
2007 – 8.49 in AA
2006 – 9.57 in high-A
Obviously, we are not comparing apples and oranges, but Lewis’s strikeout rates suggest that he can survive as a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. Plus, Lewis has better walk rates than Sowers, too.
by Peter Bendix on Sep 18, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Let’s not forget that Sowers has some gifts that Lewis doesn’t, too … I mean, at least he’s healthy. Gee, there has to be some reason he got drafted #6 overall … I seem to have lost my notes …
Anyway, I generally agree with Diatriber’s basic take on the baffling lefty callup, but like Huff, it’s not like Lewis just came out of nowhere. He was a third-rounder in 2004, and only that low because of injury concerns which did basically wipe out his first two pro seasons. But when he came back in 2006, he was arguably our best pitcher in the minors, with a 1.48 ERA while on strict pitch counts limiting him to 115 IP, 123 K, 28 BB. True, he was 22 in Kinston, but 22 isn’t THAT old for that level, and those are fantastic numbers, and he had barely pitched in two years going into that season. He’s made solid progress since then.
I’m just saying, there’s nothing particularly shocking about Lewis pitching well in the majors, if he’s healthy. He’s got the pedigree. I agree with his statement that Lewis doesn’t have to be in the mix for 2009, but with emphasis on the “for 2009” part. I think Lewis is a lot closer to Huff on the depth chart than people might guess.
I’m not ready to give up on Sowers – his K rate has improved recently – but I also do not harbor any kind of expectations for him being anything more than rotation depth, assuming the Indians have hopes of contending in 09. Unless he improves dramatically, Sowers is nothing more than a 6th/7th starter on a good team.
Perhaps I wasn’t clear, but my point was that Lewis has high enough K rates (not to mention extremely low BB rates) to suggest that he’s not some flash-in-the-pan. Obviously, we have reasonable expectations for him (best case scenario is probably a good 4th starter), but his track record suggests that he can be part of a good major league rotation.
The Indians organization seems to have a real talent for drafting and developing young pitchers.
by Peter Bendix on Sep 18, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, and you can tell that Shapiro made that the #1 priority when he took over, possibly because he watched the Hart Era teams struggle to find good pitching.
I agree on Sowers, but if he can’t ever pitch consistently in the majors, he will be something of an anomaly given his success in the minors.
I agree. Do you have any thoughts as to what happened? The oddest thing about Sowers is not necessarily his lack of success in the majors, but the fact that he never again found the same kind of success in the minors after his 2005 season.
Yes, he posted some solid ERAs, but they were often based upon unsustainably low BABIPs and/or homer rates.
by Peter Bendix on Sep 18, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I would agree, except that he’s been fairly consistent — he had trouble finding his footing after being demoted in 2007, but he dominated in Triple-A both in 2006 and in this season — those ERAs were hardly just “solid.”
Sowers is not your typical pitcher, with plus-plus control over several pitches. For him, those K and BIP rates might well be sustainable — in Triple-A — but that doesn’t mean that they translate to the majors. The difference this season seems to be just his confidence, and basically, his fringy stuff doesn’t leave any room for a lack of confidence or anything else.
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- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
- Robinson Cano and Denzel Washington face off in Jay Leno’s Yankees trivia contest
- Shane Victorino lands role on ‘Hawaii Five-0′
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