I was just coming over here to post this link. I’m looking forward to the next part where he’ll be looking at PECOTA preseason projections to each team’s run differential.

Also, FWIW, I was looking at Vegas’ initial futures lines, the Rays opened at 68.5 o/u, and as a 200/1 shot to win the WS. The sportsbooks will be on the hook for a pretty big loss if the Rays were to pull this out.

The Mariners prediction I think was a no brainer. Only idiots and Seattle homers really thought that team was going to do anything.

The Tampa Bay prediction was much ballsier, although a lot of their success was literally impossible to predict. Teams don’t just go from by far the worst bullpen in baseball to a top five one in a year. Well, they apparently do and it’s just another example at how volatile a bullpen can be and just how much it an affect a team’s success.

I was surprised to see the odd-even thing for the Indians’ bullpen goes back to 2001 — top 5 in ERA each odd year, bottom 5 in each even year since 2001. Very consistent, in one sense of the word, anyway!! If you use BAA, the pattern is similar, although 2001 and 2007 don’t look quite as good.

Minnesota has had a top 5 bullpen in ERA every year except this year and 2001, by the way. Similar pattern for BAA, although a little less consistent. The Angels have been top 5 in BAA every year except this year; top 5 in ERA every year except the last 2. So, some teams DO show a bit more consistency.

I presume people are joking about this odd/even thing with the bullpen. The Indians are perfectly capable of sucking in the pen next year, too. As Jay pointed out elsewhere, the 2007 pen was nothing great outside of los dos Rafaels.