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Around SBN: NFL Roundtable: Which Draft Pick Is Most Likely To Bust?

This just raises all sorts of questions, most of which can be answered with the sad statement that we've probably seen our last ever Marte Parte.

over 3 years ago Voltairev_tiny Voltaire 113 comments 0 recs  | 

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….but I’ve still got an unopened box of partay hats and noisemakers.

by APV on Sep 24, 2008 4:46 PM EDT reply actions  

That is the most depressing thing I’ve ever heard in my entire life.

by JRontherim on Sep 24, 2008 4:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I said it in the game thread yesterday. What an awful end to the Marte era

by Roger Dorn on Sep 24, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Hmm. What a long, interrupted trip it’s been.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 24, 2008 5:13 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

more seriously, I think it is pretty clear the Indians mishandled Marte. I don’t think it is as clear whether or not we’d be in a much better position had we handled him correctly.

by APV on Sep 24, 2008 5:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes, a shame he got hurt. I still don’t see where the Indians are going to get a regular third baseman for next year, however, so don’t announce the end of the Marte era prematurely. They may WANT to go in another direction, but they may not be able to. I think Jay said that the current infield mix is actually not that bad, so, they may conclude that they’re better off focusing on problems they can actually solve (like pitching or a left fielder).

by peter m on Sep 24, 2008 5:21 PM EDT reply actions  

I believe the infield is more of a priority than the outfield (or left field as you mention) based solely on Mark Shapiro’s always guarded comments. The bullpen and rotation rank just as high, if not higher, but I’m pretty sure the outfield is the last thing they’re worrying about.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 24, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree, generally. But, my point is that IF (and I think that’s likely) they have trouble addressing the infield because there’s not much out there to be had, they may go to plan B and work on the outfield. I think, either way, pitching is going to be their first priority and I think it SHOULD be.

by peter m on Sep 25, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is fantastic. I really wanted to see more Jamey Carroll the last week of the season.

The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay

by Buckeye Brad on Sep 24, 2008 5:23 PM EDT reply actions  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BXXBZSZBYw

But yes, I do agree with Peter and Jay. We could settle on Peralta, Asdrubal, Marte, Carroll and Barfield, and spend our time and money elsewhere.

by JRontherim on Sep 24, 2008 5:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I hope you’re not mocking my secret dormant crush on Michelle Branch.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 24, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not at all. In fact I think I may also have a secret crush on her.

by JRontherim on Sep 25, 2008 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

She has nothing on Vanessa Carlton.

by ClarkM on Sep 25, 2008 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

When her first hit came out, I was totally into it. It was right around the time of my junior prom, so I was all lovey-dovey anyway.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 25, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

What is Joe Crede going to cost and for how long? I kind of would like to take a chance on him for a season. Assuming the Marte era is done, I don’t like the idea of Carroll playing the whole season there. It seems like a move the Blue Jays would make .. and that’s always a bad feeling.

by Toxicadam on Sep 24, 2008 5:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Crede is a constant injury risk, and his numbers this year really aren’t that good. I don’t think he’ll be cheap, either; someone’ll take a flyer on him, watch.

by peter m on Sep 24, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, it’s kind of hard to consider his numbers for the year when most of it he was trying to play through his back injury. But, when he was healthy (May and June) he was OPS’ing about .900. That’s a stretch of production that Carroll could never give you.

His injury risk and poor numbers are exactly why he could be had for a 1 year deal (w/ maybe a club option). It would be better to take a chance that way, instead of signing Casey Blake to a 2-3 year deal.

by Toxicadam on Sep 24, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know, he’s a Boras client. You think he’d take a one year make good sort of deal? I could see us doing it if it was cheap, since he’s been decent in the past, but if it’s anything more than that I don’t want to touch him.

by zempf on Sep 24, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know if he would do it, but Millwood did it, and he was a Boras client.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2008 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

In his best season, Crede had a .323 OBP. And that’s only because his BA was .282 that year – 25 points higher than his career BA. His career OBP is .306. That’s awful.

And while he does have pop, his SLG is 30 points lower on the road than at home in his career. 55% of his homers have come at home, despite only 48% of his plate appearances being at home. It seems unlikely that even a fully healthy Crede is a worthwhile investment, and of course the chances of getting a fully healthy Crede are very slim.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 25, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I highly doubt it, but if Crede is going to cost $10 mil or more I’d just as soon trade for one year of Adrian Beltre.

Either way, good D and good pop. Beltre has less injury risk and isn’t someone I’ve trained myself to root against. But of course, Beltre costs you players (although maybe the new GM takes on some of the salary to start an earnest rebuilding?—nah). And I don’t know that Crede will command $10 mil.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 24, 2008 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Crede’s back is a chronic problem. The Sox tried to trade him last offseason and no one wanted him. He seems to be a diving stop away from the end of his career.

by odradek on Sep 24, 2008 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hafner. He can catch on his in-between days. They have to get their money out of him somehow.

by ShawnK on Sep 26, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

You have to wonder if they’ll keep him on the 40-man if he’s out for a month. Trying to sneak him through waivers is not an option, since he’d end up a minor league free agent anyway.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2008 6:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Reposting for Mario:

Well don’t I feel bad. I officially declare that he’s been disowned, and he gets hurt in his first atbat after that.

I’m sorry, child. I can’t believe what I’ve done.

On the bright side, good to hear he’s going to Winter ball. Can’t hurt at this point.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2008 6:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks for the repost correction. It’s always dangerous when you post your professor’s email in a blog post by accident instead of properly posting a link.

by supermarioelia on Sep 24, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

It just seemed like a good idea not to let that sit out there.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Professor: Mario, you earned an A- in my class and I would have been happy to give it to but for those disturbing emails I got from those ‘friends’ of yours.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Sep 25, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mario: Disregard the emails from my son, Andy. We no longer speak.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Sep 25, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did you place him on Mike Vick’s backyard doghouse?

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Sep 25, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Read into it what you will, but as soon as I clicked on this thread, “Taps” started playing on a tv show my wife was watching in the other room.
True story.

by bewwolv on Sep 24, 2008 9:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Benny Hill would have been more appropriate.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 24, 2008 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am so thankful his season is over… Just move Peralta to 3rd Acab to SS and go get Roberts or Hudson in 2009. Let Marte be a bench play that is where he belongs.

by NCTRIB on Sep 25, 2008 11:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Not that I wouldn’t like to sign Roberts, but last I heard the Orioles are already pushing to get him a new contract.

I was just thinking about Peralta possibly moving to third if the team decides to give up on Marte (I’d like to see him stay, but that’s just me). A 3B would need to have a better reaction time than a SS because the ball tends to get there a lot quicker, right? I’m not sure if Peralta is quick enough to play third, although he wouldn’t have as much lateral ground to cover, so that could be a plus.

Either way, if Marte leaves there’s going to be a hole at either third or second (I’m assuming Barfield isn’t any better off than Marte in terms of job security).

by Pronk33 on Sep 25, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Roberts is signed through 2009, so it’d have to be a trade. Not sure who we have that they want.

by FredOx on Sep 25, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

We should sign Mark Ellis.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 25, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why? He is currently earning $5 million, has only one year with an OPS over .775 (2005) (well , he did do .777 in 2007 – full disclosure), he’s 31 and he plays second. I don’t see the point. If he a. was a better player and b. was a third baseman, I might agree.

by peter m on Sep 25, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

His defense is the killz.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 25, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, that was in response to the above post, which suggested that we should sign Orlando Hudson.

Ellis’s defense is beyond superb, it’s…very superb (forgive me for my lack of vocabulary creativity). Additionally, he hit .280/.355/.435 away from Oakland this year, and .293/.357/.450 away from Oakland last year. (Yes, he hit .243/.316/.367 on the road in an injury-shortened 2006, but hit .335/.387/.515 on the road in 2005).

I think moving Peralta to third would be a waste of his value – if some team is willing to trade for him as a shortstop, we should go for it. But if we do choose to move Peralta to third (or deal him), we should absolutely try to sign Ellis

by Peter Bendix on Sep 25, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

The word you’re looking for is “superb.” Superb seems good enough to cover Ozzie and Maz, and I assume that Ellis is not beyond those guys. Anything “beyond superb,” you’re talking about a guy covering two positions.

by Jay on Sep 25, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Like Sal Fasano. /rim shot.

No, but really, I’d bite on Ellis. We’re going to have a lot of groundballers.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 25, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hello Peter,

You’re not the only way to mention this about moving Peralta, but personally, unless you get an absolute boatload for him, I don’t see how you can move him right now. He was one of our most solid, most complete hitters last year, and is still young enough to put up similar or even slightly better numbers (provided he stays consistent for a whole season like he did throughout the last 3-4 months of 2008), and with the question marks surrounding Hafner and our questionable production from the OF (Grady notwithstanding and Choo showing great potential, with Francisco and Gutz providing some moments here and there), I don’t see how we can trade him without causing a major hole in our lineup.

Like I said, we’d have to fill 1-2 holes to make up for losing one of our best bats in the lineup. Personally, I’m not confident in Hafner’s ability to rebound to his 2004-2005 level, let alone 2006 level, so unless we get at least 2 big bats for the lineup, I can’t see and would not want to see us trade Peralta at this point.

While Peralta’s value may drop a bit in moving him to 3B, if it fits the team better overall, that’s probably something we’d have to do, especially if we’re wanting to contend for the postseason in 2009. I think I’d rather see his value drop slightly going to 3B rather than just trade him to get a questionable piece that really isn’t going to improve us much or that will just fill one hole while creating another. Besides, it’s not like he couldn’t move back to SS after he has played 3B, so I’m not so sure that his trade value would drop THAT much. While it’s doubtful any team would trade for Peralta for his SS defense, that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t trade for him to play SS if they felt his bat was potent enough to play there and they already had a good 3B; Jhonny’s bat is certainly well above-average for a SS, so that doesn’t necessarily preclude someone wouldn’t trade for him to play everyday at SS, not because of his defense, but because of his offense and the way their team is already structured.

If it happens Peralta playing at 3B gives us the best chance to compete in 2009, then that’s likely what they’ll do, even if it does lessen Peralta’s trade value a bit down the road, and not trade him for maximum value now, especially with the way Hafner is hitting, the question marks at SS and 2B, and the questionable OF production. There are arguably too many question marks surrounding our offense and our middle infield to trade Peralta unless you get a boatload in return, and even though he may bring back maximum value now and might not later, I’m not sure you can afford to trade him at this point, especially if you want to compete for a postseason berth in 2009. He solidfied the #4 spot in the lineup nicely, and right now, I don’t see Hafner producing that much in that spot, since he has readily struggled since the middle of 2007. Combine that with the weak production from Marte at 3B or Barfield at 2B, and I’d think you’d need Peralta’s offense to help keep this offense strong. Otherwise, at best, you have Sizemore (who’s streaky), Martinez (presuming he remains healthy) , Choo (provided he stays consistent like he did in 2008), Shoppach (provided he’s playing on a regular basis), and Cabrera (presuming he stays consistent like he did in his return from AAA in 2008); the rest of the lineup contains many question marks (Garko, Hafner, Dellucci, Francisco, Gutierrez, Carroll, Barfield, Marte, etc.)

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Sep 29, 2008 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Do you think it’s risky to trade Peralta with the way Hafner is hitting? I don’t think you mentioned that at all.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 29, 2008 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the Indians should only deal Peralta if they can get a lot for him. However, we are talking about a 26-year-old shortstop – who can legitimately play the position without killing your team defensively – who is signed for the next three seasons for a total of $15 mil. That is quite a team-friendly deal.

So Peralta is an above-average overall shortstop under contract for a great deal. What we’d want in return is a similar player at a corner position. Meaning that the other player’s overall raw statistics are actually BETTER than Peralta’s, but, because the player plays a less demanding position (and, therefore, the supply of players who can play that position is a lot higher), his value is equal to Peralta’s. Or, I may consider a somewhat-lesser player if we also get a solid prospect and/or reliever in the deal. Players that come to mind on teams that could use a shortstop include Alex Rios, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez.

The idea is that we can maximize the value of our team by trading Peralta as a shortstop, knowing that we wouldn’t lose anything at the position, because we’d have Asdrubal. So we can think of it as maintaining status quo (actually, I think Cabrera would be an overall improvement over Jhonny) at shortstop, while improving because we would add value that we receive for Jhonny.

Moving Jhonny to third is acceptable, but would be an inefficient use of our assets. Offensively, Peralta is average at 3B, and we do not know how his defense would be. Essentially, it’s a marginal improvement at 3B and status quo at SS, whereas dealing Peralta would allow us to gain more value than simply moving him to 3B.

This all, of course, is based on his assumed value on the trade market. If I am over-estimating his value, this is all for naught, and we’re probably better off moving him to 3B. But 26-year-old SSs who will make $5 mil in each of the next three years are not easy to find.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 29, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

You’re right. It makes sense only if you get a lot for Peralta AND at positions where we have a need. Plus, Peralta is right-handed, so losing him makes us even more vulnerable to tough lefties (and soft-tossing, AAAA lefties) than we already are. So, the return would have to include effective right-handed hitting.

I think Peralta developed as a hitter this year. Hit the opposite way more consistently, he seemed a bit more selective, and so on. If we project that he continues to improve, which is not unreasonable given his age, trading him would be a mistake (unless, as you say, someone offers us the earth for him).

by peter m on Sep 29, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I suddenly feel very guilty about the placemark that I created for Andy on the map of LGT locations and am torn between removing it altogether or moving it to 9500 Euclid Avenue (the office of Dr. Schickendantz).

Either way, does anyone know how to get a message to John Adams? He ought to be warned.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Sep 25, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Did you place him on Mike Vick’s backyard doghouse?

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Sep 25, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I will never stop being amused/befuddled/irrationally angered by Dr. Schickendantz and that he is a regular team physician for the Tribe

by APV on Sep 25, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

My blind hope that the Marte situation is all some master plan by Antonetti diminishes by the day. One day we’ll get an answer as to what the hell happened here. One day.

by Joe. on Sep 25, 2008 9:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe what happened is that Andy Marte is not good.

/ducks and covers

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

We may never know.

He’s going to hit .467/.655/.712 or something in the Mexican League in three years and eventually there’ll be a Bull Durham-esque movie about him.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I get the feeling his next stop is Oakland, if we should let him go.

by jhon on Sep 26, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think I’ll ever lose sleep over what Andy Marte could have been. I mean, of course I wanted him to succeed, because he’s an Indian and seems like a good guy. I agree he hasn’t been given a totally fair shake, but them’s the breaks in Major League Baseball. How many players like him have fallen through the cracks over the years? And you know, I get that he can’t be expected to perform up to his maximum potential by playing intermittently, but come on, show me something. Yeah, he’s hit a coupla homers and a coupla a double and a lot of “hard hit outs,” but whatever. You can chalk some of that up to being rusty from playing only a few times a week. But 14 walks in 257 PAs? That’s atrocious, and it shouldn’t have anything to do with being rusty. I think it has everything to do with being overmatched and, frankly, totally clueless at the plate. Say what you will about the limited opportunities he’s been given, but I think a lot of teams would have cut bait on him much sooner.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Same could have been said for Phillips before we let him go. Or Guthrie. Not saying the front office erred with any of these players, but it’s hard to know what you have in a player if you don’t give him a fair shake. Sometimes a change of scenery is necessary for these players to break out. Maybe they thrive on crappy teams like Cincy and Pittsburgh

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

More power to them, then, because they just didn’t cut it on the Tribe. I’ve never been one to lament Tribe has-beens-turned-stars on other teams.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s a problem if the front office isn’t doing their job appropriately. Shapiro has admitted he made a mistake with Phillips. I can’t fault them at all for the Guthrie situation, which I think all stems from the contract he signed when he was drafted. I have been consistent this year in saying that I think we have mismanaged Marte which doesn’t indicate if I think he will have a successful major league career.

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Shapiro’s done what he can. Blake was good when we were still trying to contend, so playing him was justified. After the Blake trade, Andy played more and showed less.

I’ll go all Chuck on ya: for every year Andy Marte OPS-s over .700, I’ll buy you a 6-pack of your choice, and vice versa for every year he’s under .700.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Casey was mediocre in April and May when the team was actually contending. He was good in June and July when the team had already started to fade. His best numbers were in July, a month we started 11 GB.

by FredOx on Sep 26, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m so glad I’m not the only one who thinks Casey spit the bit for us this year. Because Casey spit the bit for us this year.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

So? I bet you think A-Rod sucks too.

by Joe. on Sep 26, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, point being that Casey wasn’t playing bad enough to justify starting an unproven rookie in his place while we’re still pretending to contend. You’ll say (and I’ll agree) that it probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference due to all our other problems, but it makes sense that we didn’t want top purposefully create more holes when we didn’t have to.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree completely with this post. I (as well as many others) knew this team had made a big mistake the moment it prematurely gave up on Philips. However, the Guthrie situation was not mishandled. There was no way to predict he would turn into a different pitcher like he did with the Orioles.

by Joe. on Sep 26, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry man I didn’t see one legitimate point here. You’re right that similar players fall through the cracks but does that justify the decision? Not even close. Would some teams have given up on him sooner? Sure, but that says more about those teams than anything about Marte or our FO. I don’t know maybe I hold Shapiro and crew to a much higher standard but I don’t think that’s a bad thing. Regardless (emphasis on this word) of how Andy Marte performs with his new team, this team’s handling of him was nothing short of disastrous.

As for his walk rate, it’s not nearly atrocious. Needs serious improvement? Of course. Sub par? Definitely. Now if you want to see what an atrocious walk rate actually looks like take a gander at Robinson Cano’s 2005 season. While you’re at it, compare that walk rate to his walk rate last year or to a lesser extent this year. Players tend to improve their walk rates when they aren’t developed extremely poorly.

by Joe. on Sep 26, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Look, I don’t fundamentally disagree with any of your points, but the bottom line is, regardless of how he was handled, he played terribly when given the opportunity. We can make all the excuses we want for him being rusty by getting fewer opportunities, but if he was really good enough to be a major leaguer, he’d have shown something in his limited time. Like I said, I agree it’s absurd to think he should be performing at max potential given only 2-3 starts a week, but if he wants to have any shot at sticking in the majors, he needed to show a lot more than what he did.

I feel for Marte. Believe it or not, I really wanted him to succeed. But a team that’s trying to contend doesn’t have the time to hold his hand through his epic struggles. The support for Marte and outrage over his misuse borders on ridiculous at times here.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Jay has written entire books about this, but I can’t agree with you here. If we are evaluating players based on irregular play, then we are doing that player a disservice. Track record needs to be taken into account. Otherwise Ben Francisco would have left field on lock next year

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

::sigh::

Again, I agree with you guys on that, in general. I guess I’m just not doing a good job expressing my thoughts about it.

Yes, we mishandled him. Maybe our mishandling has irreparably damaged him. But, given what he’s shown in his few opportunities, and regardless of who’s to blame, I don’t think it’s worth being outraged about. Miffed? Sure. But like I said, I’m not gonna lose sleep over it.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s still the same thing we were saying earlier. It’s easy to not be outraged while the player is struggling…until the player excels in the future. I would rather not hide behind the hindsight is 20/20 argument

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think I’m relying on 20/20 hindsight here. I’ve never been a fan of Marte. He just never seemed like he was ML ready to me. Now I know that’s a nebulous and unquantifiable statement, but I don’t make statements like that lightly, not since I’ve been hanging around here.

I dunno, agree to disagree, but here’s my bottom line, rational or not:

I think Marte sucks, and if he ever ends up playing well on any team, let a lone the Indians, I’ll buy everyone here a round of beers.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

And my bottom line is: I have no idea if Marte sucks. He certainly doesn’t suck defensively, but I do not have sufficient data to determine whether he can hit. He’s somewhere between Barfield and Pujols, but where on that particular continuum he falls, I do not know.

by FredOx on Sep 26, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Marte showed me in over his couple months that he can be an all-around mediocre, still with some upside. I’d feel about as much confidence in him going into ’09 as I had with Blake going into any of the seasons he played 3B.

Am I thrilled about Marte? No, but I think he’ll do for now. We’d better have a backup plan, however, because there’s a chance you’re right. He might actually suck. It’s very hard to tell.

by jhon on Sep 26, 2008 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d feel about as much confidence in him going into ’09 as I had with Blake going into any of the seasons he played 3B.

I can dig that

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Frankly, Turk, this business about “them’s the breaks” is a load of crap. And maybe the problem isn’t that you aren’t expressing yourself very well, maybe it’s just a load of crap.

The whole point of the Marte complaints was that it was not in fact a standard case of “them’s the breaks.” You could not, in fact, find very many IF ANY examples of a guy who:

• had a tremendously solid four-year track record in the minors
• was rated an ELITE prospect, i.e., not just Top 100 but Top 10
• had a minor injury after three weeks as a big-league starter
• came back from the DL a few weeks later
• was never given a chance to be a starter again

Go ahead — find me the guy. “Them’s the breaks” is for a prospect like Jon Van Every, not a guy who was one of the better players in Triple-A at age 21. Rookie after rookie on this club has gotten four or five solid months — playing EVERY day, and yes, during contending seasons — to show that he can or can’t hit at this level, but not Marte.

if he was really good enough to be a major leaguer, he’d have shown something in his limited time.

This has been disproven by example literally dozens of times. I am kind of shocked to see anyone who’s a longtime regular here still trotting out this dumb argument at this late date.

WHATEVER he really is … he has not been given a real opportunity at any point other than his two-month try-out in late 2006 … and that is in fact HIGHLY unusual, not the LEAST bit common, for a prospect of his caliber.

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

But 14 walks in 257 PAs? That’s atrocious, and it shouldn’t have anything to do with being rusty. I think it has everything to do with being overmatched and, frankly, totally clueless at the plate.

I neglected to point out this remarkably boneheaded observation. You think not seeing live pitching for days at a time has nothing to do with selectivity? I think that is absolutely nuts. Apparently you think pitch recognition doesn’t get honed through repetition and practice. Words fail me.

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

does LaRoche come close? only guy i can think of.

by Brick. on Sep 26, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah crap… I wrote out a long-winded diatribe in response and then stupidly hit the back button accidentally on my browser before I posted.

Let me try to sum it up:

Basically, I don’t think you’re wrong in calling me out for my lack of quantitative support. Also, I’ll agree that I was off base with the walks comment, as now that I’m off of work I had a chance to look up his minor league stats from 07 and see tht his walk rate was significantly higher, probably due to seeing live pitching everyday.

“Them’s the breaks” is a load of crap. In general, though, I don’t think I’m alone in my opinions. Andy Marte’s “mistreatment” has just been so over-discussed that I’m jaded on the whole topic and tend to have a gut anti-Marte reaction at this point. His terrible performance, intermittent SSS or not, has only hardened this stance It just sounds like incessant whining over spilled Marte to me at this point.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let me also add that it’s really only here that I challenge people’s ideas about Marte. Strange as it seems, I’ve gotten into numerous arguments with non-LGT friends about how Marte should have been starting over Blake.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

It isn’t that strange. I think it’s a pretty natural thing that many of us probably do from time to time, switch roles depending on who we’re talking to. It’s just a sign of trying to reconcile a puzzling combination of factors.

Your being not-alone in an opinion isn’t much of a defense, though. I mean, hell, you’ve seen the way they vote on American Idol, right? There is a certain perception of Marte out there, one that’s even supported by a glance at the stats, but that doesn’t mean that the perception is accurate.

Incessant whining over spilled Marte? Perhaps. Certainly I have to allow that that charge is fair. My view is simply that there’s nothing dumber a team can do than to squander a top prospect, whether by trade or mishandling or even failing to sign him in the first place. Talented prospects are simply the lifeblood of any successful franchise, and for a small-budget club like ours, they’re all we’ve got.

So if it seems excessive, just remember that what they’re screwing up here is merely the one thing they need to do to succeed.

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

All fair points. I think I got it out of my system, and I’m pretty much in agreement with you.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Turk, I feel for you.

I think the guts of this discussion is that there is often a disconnect between what the readers at LGT observe and what the mainstream media observes. Almost always I agree with the general interpretation of events at LGT, mainly because the mainstream media seems so clueless.

What is disconcerting to me (and from what I read, you also, please correct me if I’m wrong), is with the Marte issue, I tend to agree with the mainstream media over the “consensus” at LGT.

This “consensus” is not unanimous. It is nice for me to see that you have very similar views along with TribeJay, and possibly Ryan.

by oxforddave on Sep 29, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

You continue to skew this as we think Marte is good versus you think he is bad. The truth is that we are saying we think he deserves a fair shot given his track record, and you think he is bad and that it doesn’t matter, because chance or not he will suck

by Roger Dorn on Sep 29, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think that the consensus believes that he is good. My argument is along your last sentence, but with the caveat that I think he has already had his shot. In fact, many times over. This is also Turk’s argument I think. I don’t like the way Wedge handled him this year, but this was only after the indians were out of it. Why should the man play when he is hurting the team’s chances of winning the pennant? Because he hit well 4 years ago in AA ball?

by oxforddave on Sep 29, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he has already had his shot.

You really had me up until here. It just undermines the credibility of everything else you say on the subject. It makes no sense at all. Fact is, you never liked how Marte profiled when we first acquired him, and you hated giving Crisp up.

Most of my position is based on an understanding of how analysis is supposed to go into decision-making.

(1) If Marte was worth acquiring at some significant cost, then he’s worth giving a real shot to. Were they wrong about him all along? Maybe, but they’ve had plenty of opportunity to say so, and they never have.

(2) If Marte was worth putting on the roster this year, then he must be worth playing when we’re struggling at five different positions.

That’s why this has long reeked of Wedge not being interested in going along with the organization’s plan on this player, possibly on many players. What we have here is a rational disconnect.

by Jay on Sep 29, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Geez, this is going to be the death of me. Exasperating, like trying to convince someone the sky is blue who won’t go outside.

Having a real shot means, in part, that the team commits to an elite player, to giving him a real shot. When we acquired Marte, he was already a success at Triple-A — in need of seasoning, maybe, couldn’t hurt, but the fact is that he’d have started in Cleveland in April 2006 had Aaron Boone opted out and left as a free agent.

In any event, here’s our elite prospect, major-league ready. Since then, we have played 317 games in the months on or before July 31 — the bulk of the season. How many of those 317 games has Marte started?

51. 51 starts in 317 games. That’s how much we’ve committed to the guy, that’s how much of a real shot he’s gotten. And 17 of those were just this past July — before that month, it was 34 starts in 290 games.

You cannot give a guy a “real shot” in the final two months of the season without carrying it over to the next season. There is no such thing as a two-month “real shot.”

by Jay on Sep 29, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah Jay, we differ on Marte.

by oxforddave on Sep 29, 2008 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

“The support for Marte and outrage over his misuse borders on ridiculous at times here.”

Absolutely. Lots of irrational and magical thinking here regarding Marte.

It’s hard to believe those Richmond numbers haven’t indicated more. Marte’s minor league numbers make it understandable why Jay says he should have—I don’t remember the exact number—500 PAs before decisions are made.

But sometimes people catch breaks and stick in the bigs and sometimes they don’t.

While I’m on the subject of irrationality, Wedge’s handling of him was totally bizarre. Even while contending, the Indians could have started Marte at third a few—three?—games a week.

And, yes, Casey Blake is not a starting third baseman for a contending team.

by odradek on Sep 27, 2008 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Was this Marte’s third injury? Hamstring in 2007, where he was jobbed when healthy again. But wasn’t he hurt with the Braves?

by odradek on Sep 27, 2008 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

But sometimes people catch breaks and stick in the bigs and sometimes they don’t.

I’ve already answered that. It’s an argument that collapses quickly.

Was this Marte’s third injury? Hamstring in 2007, where he was jobbed when healthy again. But wasn’t he hurt with the Braves?

He was injured with the Braves to start the season, maybe five years ago. All three injuries were minor, just a few weeks out of action.

by Jay on Sep 27, 2008 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Regarding breaks, I would guess it has happened before that a good player doesn’t perform well in a short trial and is gone. We’ve had this discussion before. Maybe I will do some digging around during the offseason.

I haven’t checked, but his hamstring injury seemed to keep him out longer. The current calf injury will keep him out of fall baseball, right?

He says the Tribe wants him to play winter ball.

by odradek on Sep 27, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I frankly don’t care what you “would guess.” The reality is that this does not happen with an ELITE prospect. It happens with fringe guys who’ve just had a few good months in Triple-A, guys like Zach Jackson or Craig Breslow, all the time.

You don’t just toss away top talent carelessly, that is the whole point, you distinguish between the late-20’s guy who looks like a major leaguer briefly at his peak, and the early-20’s guy who already looks like a major leaguer and still has upside.

The other thing that you will find almost never happens is that a guy wins a major league job, has a minor injury, and is never given any opportunity to get his job back. That is actually something of a taboo in baseball culture, but as with anything else, there apparently are no rules, principles or guidelines applied to handling Marte.

I don’t know if the calf injury will keep him out of fall baseball entirely. He had been planning to report around Oct 15, and this reportedly will keep him out a week or so beyond that date.

by Jay on Sep 27, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Regardless of how one thinks Marte will actually turn out as a pro, I can’t justify the organization’s treatment of him.

by Roger Dorn on Sep 27, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t expect you to care. I’m simply speculating.

What am I supposed to say: I bet? It’s a fact? I know?

This stuff happened all the time during the 1940s. I know this, but I haven’t looked it up yet. I will after the season is over. How about Billy Beane?

I agree with the injury taboo. You’re not supposed to lose your starting job because of an injury.

by odradek on Sep 27, 2008 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Beane’s best year was as a 22-year-old in AA, and it wasn’t as good as Andy’s.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 28, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

The “mood” of this discussion is that Marte is not considered to be MLB ready by our FO. That he will either be gone or sitting on our bench in 2009. That irreparable damage has been done to his hitting approach.
What we know is that Marte’s approach was not appreciated by Wedge. Any other player with the same approach would be similarly unappreciated by Wedge. This is Wedge’s approach and we won’t change it.
I think there is a strong possiblity that Marte will play a lot of 3B in 2009, here or elsewhere. He may get the kind of look he should have gotten this year. And by the end of 2009 we and Wedge may have a very different opinion of him.

by elsandito on Sep 28, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes. We don’t know what about Marte’s approach Wedge doesn’t like, though.

by peter m on Sep 28, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

My guess is that he feels Marte isn’t disciplined enough about having a plan and executing it at the plate. Goes too much on instinct and knowledge of the strike zone alone. I’m not talking about discipline in the strict “plate discipline” sense, I’m talking about being disciplined in his overall approach to hitting. Focused, mindful, not giving away at bats.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder, too, if they don’t like his tendency to try to pull everything. If they’ve been trying to convince him to hit the ball the other way at times, and he hasn’t been trying to do that, that might be another issue.

Hafner could probably do with a bit of Wedge’s tough love on the plate discipline thing, at least at the moment.

by peter m on Sep 28, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

From watching him, it seems he was trying not to pull, trying to hit to the right side, and this resulted in quite a few awkward or tentative swings. Lots more popups.

I think they really want to take away the left side fromhim and get him to think center and right center, much like Peralta. But he doesn’t seem to be that kind of hitter.

He hit one monster shot to left center at home, but it was almost as if he knew he would be benched if he pulled a ball.

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again, this all gets back to whatever he was supposed to be working on, he hasn’t been given any chance to work on it.

by Jay on Sep 29, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hello Jay,

That approach reminds me a lot of Brandon Phillips’ approach, and of course, Phillips eventually was sent back to AAA after not performing up at the ML level (under Wedge).

I think Wedge’s track record seems to suggest what you are saying – that Wedge doesn’t like hitters who don’t go up to the plate with a plan and execute it consistently. Marte will too often chase garbage off the plate, looking to hook the ball, and get himself out repeatedly. I remember Phillips would often do the same thing when he was here.

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Sep 29, 2008 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right. And Phillips was given something like 100 starts in 105 games to work his way out of it.

by Jay on Sep 29, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

And so might we all. Give the guy 450 PA, maybe he turns out to be a bum. At least then we’d know!

by Jay on Sep 28, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d be in favor of giving that a try, rather than over-spending on a guy like Crede.

by peter m on Sep 28, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he’s on the roster next year, Carroll will get more ABs than Marte will.

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is that because Marte will learn to take a walk? (just kidding).

by peter m on Sep 28, 2008 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Barring an injury, I really doubt that. I just can’t see the Indians keeping a player like Marte around for another year in a backup role.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2008 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

You don’t think he could be co-third baseman with Carroll assuming the vacant Super-Utility chair last held by you know who? That is, Marte would be the nominal starting third baseman who would play three or four games a week?

I think this might be his best chance to stick, and I thought maybe the Indians were resigned to keeping him around, unless they could sign a veteran.

by odradek on Sep 29, 2008 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m sorry, was Blake a super-utility for us this season? I could swear he was a bad third baseman and a solid first baseman. Super-utility is a term for guys who can play at least some of the hardest positions to fill, as opposed to playing one skill position pretty badly and a couple non-skill positions very well.

I do think they could conceivably keep Marte with a plan to play him four times a week, but I wouldn’t call that a backup role.

by Jay on Sep 29, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

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