Lee Running Out of Gas?

Is Cliff's uninspiring ERA over his last three starts a result of being overused, succumbing to the pressure of winning the Cy Young, or better teams (minus KC)? If overuse, does the 2009 Tribe limit his workload over the season to keep him fresh for October/November? Maybe pace him for 200 innings?

over 3 years ago ShawnK 35 comments 0 recs |

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Has his velocity decreased any or is there any other evidence suggesting this besides three mediocre starts strung together at the end of the season?

by ClarkM on Sep 24, 2008 6:19 PM EDT reply actions

I guess pitch/FX data could answer this. At some point I’ll probably look it up.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 24, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions

These are Lee’s velocities from his start against the Red Sox:

FB – 89.74 (topped out at 92.1)
CH – 82.42
SL – 85.20
CB – 75.56

Here are Lee’s velocities from a random start in May (May 18 against the Reds):

FB – 89.80 (topped out at 92.4)
CH – 81.86
CB – 75.20

Looks line to me. Incidentally, pitch f/x classified two of Lee’s pitches against the Red Sox as sliders, I’m not sure why.

Finally, FWIW, Lee’s season-long velocities from fangraphs:

FB – 90.5
SL – 81.7 (thrown 1.7% of the time)
CT – 85.2 (thrown 6.2% of the time)
CB – 74.7
CH – 82.4

While the classification system does some weird things, it seems pretty clear that Lee’s velocity was not down during his most recent start.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 25, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Unfortunately, neither were some of his pitches. I think it’s his location that’s been less sharp in his last three or four starts (including the one he won at home against KC).

by peter m on Sep 25, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I doubt the 2009 Indians will have the luxury of prohibiting Cliff Lee from pitching as many solid innings as he has in him. You have to worry about making the play-offs before getting all conservative with IP. Considering that he’ll be the ace of next year’s staff out the gate and an the questions that linger in the bullpen, I don’t really see them having the option of limiting him.

by PatBordersHelmet on Sep 24, 2008 6:23 PM EDT reply actions

I agree witht that logic. However, 2009 will be an odd-numbered year, so maybe the bullpen will return and Wedge will have some options. Or maybe the offense will be productive and provide some breathing room early in games.

by ShawnK on Sep 24, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Should Lee pitch on Sunday?

by palcal on Sep 24, 2008 7:46 PM EDT reply actions

Why not pitch? He has six months to rest and he might be able to crush the White Sox playoff hopes.

by ShawnK on Sep 24, 2008 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Cliff had a four-start stretch from May 18 to June 4 when he was significantly worse than this, so it seems like it’s just part of the regular ups and downs of a season. Now look at what actually happened in those games:

Sept 12 – Allowed two runs in the first eight innings, retiring 15 of the last 16 batters he faced, and then got lit up in the 9th.

Sept 17 – Allowed two runs in the first six innings, including 13 strikeouts and groundouts, and then kind of gets fluked to death in the 7th: — reach-on-error grounder, flyball that bounces near the RF foul line for a double, groundout, seeing-eye grounder through the right side — that’s three grounders and only one out. At that point, he was removed more because he had thrown a bunch of pitches than he was pitching badly.

Sept 22 – Three shutout innings, then he allows five runs in the 4th and 5th, but then bounces back to pitch two more shutout innings, albeit looking a bit fringy at the end.

None of these three starts seems indicative of a guy who’s out of gas in general, although he may not have had his best stuff or control on one or two of them.

by Jay on Sep 24, 2008 8:06 PM EDT reply actions

Anyone else more worried about Fausto’s entire season of cruddy starts?

by JulioBernazard on Sep 25, 2008 9:03 AM EDT reply actions

This guy is

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 25, 2008 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions

More worried, definitely.

Particularly worried, no, oddly enough.

by Jay on Sep 25, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

The fact we haven’t seen his good stuff in awhile is the most worrisome. Hopefully he finds it under his couch this off-season and brings it with him to Goodyear.

Is he pitching in the WBC? I hope not.

by PatBordersHelmet on Sep 25, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Yikes, yeah, good question. I’d hope the Indians could hold him back from that.

by Jay on Sep 25, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

I think I jinxed him when I bought that Carmona t-shirt in the offseason. So far, every player whose jersey/shirt I’ve bought has crapped the bed ever since. Granted, it’s only two players, but I’m still worried about my jersey-buying prospects.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 25, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Don’t you dare buy a Choo jersey!!

by FredOx on Sep 25, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually thought about it last time I was up in Cleveland. Was contemplating him and Grady. But given my track record with Hafner (bought after the 2006 season) and Carmona (bought after the 2007 season), I’m not risking it.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 25, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Can I temp you with a collection of jerseys of players from OTHER teams in the AL Central?

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Sep 25, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Or maybe just ex-Indians players.

by ShawnK on Sep 25, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

That would certainly cut my spending

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 25, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Don’t buy CC’s — the PTBNL depends on his proving Chuck wrong (as he did yesterday).

by peter m on Sep 25, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Shield your eyes

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 25, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Hello PBH,

I wasn’t even thinking about that possibility – yuck! (With all due respect to Fausto and the Dominican Republic).

That’s (The World Baseball Classic’s) not something I want to even think about – I hope the Indians are more in the flow of things to start 2009 than they were in 2006 (when they had yet another slow start after the 93-69 campaign in 2005).

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Sep 28, 2008 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Will Carroll notes in today’s UTK that Lee will be shut down if Sunday’s game is meaningless.

by DaveE on Sep 25, 2008 4:15 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, Wedge basically said as much yesterday to reporters — something like “we’ll see if Sunday’s game means anything.” The way the Twins are going, it may still be close on Sunday, though.

by peter m on Sep 25, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions