Let's Go Tribe!: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Steve McNair Dead - Former NFL QB Shot and Killed


Peralta to start at 3B tonight (Friday)

"I can play third base," said Peralta. "I played a half season there at Buffalo. I don't know how I'll do there [today], but I'll do my best."

Link 9 months ago Snyder_tiny millionairesrow Comment 215 comments 1 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Terry Pluto’s massive propaganda campaign has worked. He is an evil puppetmaster!

by Toxicadam on Sep 26, 2008 9:19 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Over/under on this thread by gametime tonight:

165 comments

by NickFantana on Sep 26, 2008 10:08 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’d at least bet it gets a main page bump.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 10:32 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah? How much?

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 2:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Apparently zero.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 2:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

a reply from Ryan to this would be awesome.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Sep 26, 2008 7:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See, you don’t know much about being a good teammate.

by Jay on Sep 27, 2008 12:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I suppose I’ll weigh in. I’m not crazy about it. We have no reason to think Peralta will be a good defender at third. This whole speculation started when people said, “Hey, we have a hole at 3B. Peralta plays right next to it. And he’s not that great of a SS.” That doesn’t equal success in my mind, but I suppose it could.

I’m okay with this move if we land a solid 2B or SS that justifies it. I’d be okay with Mark Ellis defensively or Brian Roberts offensively, but I’m leaning more towards Ellis just because of cost and, well, we proved in 2007 that the offense isn’t an absolute necessity. I’ve also heard Rickie Weeks could be made available. He’s interesting.

But if Peralta’s not going to play short I’d almost rather trade him. It seems to devalue him to stick him at third. But then there’s a whole new issue of what hole that opens up depending on what we get in return.

I guess I’d say I’m slightly cynical but cautiously interested in the results.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 10:38 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i once liked rickie weeks. not anymore.

by Gradyforpresident on Sep 26, 2008 10:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Weeks would be a case of buying low kind of like Reyes. I am higher on Weeks than Barfield

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 10:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i don’t think thats saying much

by Gradyforpresident on Sep 26, 2008 10:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

not at all. it would be an interesting move

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 11:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I assume they ask for starters or bullpen help, which doesn’t seem to be a fit. But I’m intrigued by Weeks.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:27 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We proved in 2007 that the offense isn’t an absolute necessity when we had an amazing starting rotation and the best (I believe) bullpen in the AL. I’m going out on a limb to say that at least one of those two things will not be true in 2009.

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Sep 26, 2008 10:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Point. Our pitching will look a lot better next year with the defense up the middle that Ellis and Cabrera would provide, wouldn’t it? And offensively, Ellis is still >>> Barfield. I’d feel confident in superb D and a 100 OPS+ next year. See if he’ll take a two year contract, but I’d be willing to give him three if by the end of it he’s just a utility guy.

In fact, I’m starting to think Ellis is my favorite option at 2B for next year. Especially when you think of how much the ball is going to be put on the ground.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can we call you Nick Bendix?

by NickFantana on Sep 26, 2008 11:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hooray, I have a convert!

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 11:11 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No.

Peter, have you been pimping Ellis?

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That was pretty brusque.

by NickFantana on Sep 26, 2008 11:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It wasn’t meant in a rude way. No really though, if Peter’s been hawking Ellis I’ve missed it. Is it in the Bats vs. Arms thread? Because I’ve kind of missed that one.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can never stay mad at my alter ego.

Yeah, he’s done it in several different threads. There was a summary in the Bats v Arms thread, as well as here, a more direct version here, and down the street he posted a nice summary of his Tribe 09 platform.

Consider yourself fully cyberstalked Bendix.

by NickFantana on Sep 26, 2008 11:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Adding: I think you were on sabbatical for that first link, which goes back to July 17 when we sent Droobsacab down for the first time.

by NickFantana on Sep 26, 2008 11:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I didn’t even realize Peter was the one who brought it up in the Marte thread. Then yes, I agree with him, although I’m not sure about trading Jhonny just for trading’s sake.

2 yrs/$12M seems like a lot to pay Ellis, but I guess it’s more money for less years.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 12:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It may be a lot to pay, but Ellis’s defense really is that good, and if we can get that short of a deal I’m happy to overpay in AAV. And it’s not like that contract would be a burden that prevents us from making other moves, if it goes awry.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 12:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I feel flattered. And violated.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 12:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I still am not persuaded. Cabrera is better than Peralta at short, obviously. Is Ellis much better than Cabrera at 2nd? I haven’t studied the matter carefully, but Cabrera is certainly a strong second baseman, so any improvement there is essentially gilding the lily. If Peralta moves to third, we’ve weakened the defense there — Marte is a good defender there and Carroll is too. Peralta has not demonstrated that he’s a capable third baseman. My guess is he’ll be below average there defensively (can he charge bunts? does he have the quick reflexes you need a third?). So, we improve up the middle (mostly at short) and get worse on the corner. Spending money on Ellis doesn’t solve a problem; it moves it.

by peter m on Sep 26, 2008 11:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This of course all depends on what Peralta can do at third.

You’re right if he’s a bad defender. You’ve got all glove/no bat Marte at third replaced by no glove/all bat Peralta, with all glove/average-to-below bat up the middle at both positions.

But if Peralta proves even average, I think it’s worth it. Because his bat is WAY above Marte’s that I would think average D completely makes him more valuable at third base over Dandy Andy. Then you’ve got an upgrade in D at short with a downgrade in offense. And D at 2B (assuming we’re comparing Ellis to Cabrera) either stays the same or improves with average offense. That’s a good set-up.*

But it’s all a big IF right now. I’m getting pretty curious.

*Which looks even better if all that average offense gets made up by an upgrade at first.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:24 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I thought Peralta’s D at SS wasn’t near as bad as everyone wants to make it out to be. To say he is no glove is not doing him justice. Not that he is any wizard out there

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 11:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You misunderstood me there. When I said Peralta had no glove, I was talking about the hypothetical situation that he moves to third and sucks there defensively, so you’re looking at either no glove/good bat or no bat/good glove between him and Marte.

I would rate Peralta an average defender at SS.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Another thing about Peralta at 3B: I think he has a chance to be an above-average defensive 3B, thereby actually increasing his value. Playing him at 3B maximizes his strengths (arm) and minimizing his weakness (range). I’m gonna change my initial feelings from “slightly cynical but cautiously interested” to cautiously optimistic.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 12:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A large part of his ability at third will be reaction time which is vital to a strong defensive third baseman

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 12:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I haven’t really heard any evidence either way about how Peralta’s reaction time is.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 12:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you can react at SS, you can react at 3B. It’s not that unlike moving from CF to LF. If he can make the throws across the diamond (we’ve all seen his arm: he can) I’m positive Peralta would be an above-average thirdbaseman, and he might even be one of the best.

by jhon on Sep 26, 2008 1:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you can react at SS, you can react at 3B.

is this true?

by Brick. on Sep 26, 2008 1:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Generally, yeah. Granted my experience is limited to playing both extensively in little league, but I always found 3B to be a bit easier, and I was always considered a better 3B than SS because, like Jhonny, I had range issues. It’s not like Peralta’s ever had an issue “reacting” to balls, or if he does, I’ve never heard anything about it. Reacting is different than getting to the ball — it has more to do with hand-eye coordination than physical agility. And thanks to Lasik, we all know Jhonny has him some good hand-eye coordination. I agree with jhon here.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 2:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m not saying we should do this. Maybe we should, maybe we shouldn’t. But if we did, rest assured that Peralta can field the position. I’d bet he’d be at least as good as Travis Fryman, which is pretty damned good.

by jhon on Sep 26, 2008 2:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

3b is all about reaction and arm strength. Shortstop also is about arm strength, but reaction isn’t really the issue. There are so many skills involved, some physical (agility, graceful footwork, soft hands), some mental (smart positioning). As someone said elsewhere on this thread, 3b is not just Shortstop Lite. It’s different.

As for Jhonny, I guess we’re all agreed that he’s nothing special as a shortstop. There are two things I have always found significant about how the Indians handled him as he worked his way through the system. One is that he never played an inning at 2b. The other is that when he was used at 3b (the year he played at Buffalo with Brandon Phillips), the reviews were not that good.

For the record, I favor moving Droobs to ss and finding a new 2b, on the principle that you don’t play your best ss anywhere else. I favor this even though it means both finding another 2b and counting on JP to play a better 3b than Casey Blake. I don’t think we can “rest assured” that he will.

by ken from alexandria on Sep 27, 2008 9:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it’s a little similar to moving Garko from catcher to first base. On the one hand, catcher (shortstop) is definitely a tougher position overall than first base (third, second). On the other hand, the guy has been working non-stop at his current position for five to ten years, and the new position will need to be learned. Peralta is a much better all-around athlete than Garko, of course, but he’s not the kind of guy who would be expected to have an easy transition.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2008 11:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You know what’s more important that all of those skills? Throwing right handed. But seriously, I think the profile of a 3B that you give—a good one, that is—is dead on, but these are qualities that every SS has or can easily learn. They are the two IF positions that have the most in common, but the players who man SS are better defenders by an order of magnitude. Apart from the catchers, even the very worst of them are the most skilled defenders in the league at any position.

I’ll grant you that most of the very best 3B—the ranks of the Gold Glove winners—are groomed as 3B men and have a certain set of skills that keep them tethered to the position. But let’s say all of the 3B and SS in both leagues are swapped. Which 3B are passable as SS? Generously, the list would include Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen and maybe—I doubt it, but for the sake of argument—Ryan Zimmerman. Jorge Cantu and Jose Castillo could probably hack it at a substandard level, but it’s a gruesome thought. I think only Alex Rodriguez is capable of being defensively average at this point. In past seasons there might have been a compelling argument for putting up with less than stellar defense at the position from a Chipper Jones or Troy Glaus, because of their superior bats, but they’re past that point in their careers (but not past the point where they can’t manage their present position).

Now, which of the current SS can handle it? In my mind conceivably all of them could play at an acceptable level, and a few of them would excel. In my estimation, probably half of them would contend for the Gold Glove. The thing that makes this undesirable is the ‘positional value’ thing; getting another good bat in the lineup.

I think there would be a small adjustment period for Jhonny, something like Spring Training and a couple months of starts for Jhonny, or any SS to really get it down. But he would. Almost every 2B or 3B (and many 1B) descend from the SS position. Most leave it when they begin their minor league career. Some, like Chisenhall, tentatively begin their pro careers at Short. Others, like Cal Ripken or Travis Fryman are kept in their until their range disintegrates. Cal became a 3B at 36, and after a brief adjustment went on to be one of the very best fielders in the league. Travis, as we all know, won a GG with us. Matt Williams and Chipper Jones are excellent defenders who began their major league careers at short. Mike Lowell and Tim Wallach are standouts who sort of wandered into the position. The reverse—being moved to SS and having success there—is never true.

by jhon on Sep 28, 2008 8:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gary Sheffield started as a shortstop for the Brewers.

The two best defensive third basemen I ever saw, Graig Nettles and Brooks Robinson, didn’t play much shortstop. Nettles began in the majors as an outfielder, and Brooks played third right from the start.

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 8:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wonder what those guys were in HS / College? Without looking it up, I’d guess SS.
Scott Rolen isn’t too shabby either. You know what he played in HS? SS (and point guard). Mike Schmidt? HS SS. I guess scouts thought he was too big for the position in the bigs. Bill Mazeroski was a converted SS. They’re all converted SS.

by jhon on Sep 28, 2008 9:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rolen is a great defender, too. A better player than Nettles, all around.

But sure, all these guys were shortstops.

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 9:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I should mention that Ripken came up through the minors as both a SS & a 3B. He was a SS/P in HS; he was obviously a big dude and he was a shaky fielded in his minor league debut, so he was more of a 3B prospect at first. Maybe the Orioles had the idea that he’d follow in Brooks’ footsteps too. His defense improved a lot, and the team came around to the wisdom of playing him at SS. I don’t count him as a 3B who crossed over to SS.

Incidentally, Brooks likes to say that Third is a “reflex position”, but I can’t help but wonder if he’s just talking up the role. I can’t figure out what he was in HS, although it looks like he debuted as a 2B. Why wasn’t that guy a ML SS?

by jhon on Sep 28, 2008 9:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks for your thoughtful commentary here and also above, jhon. Re Brooks Robinson, it’s said that he’s ambidextrous and does most everything left handed except throw (and bat). That probably didn’t hurt his “reflexes” at 3b. Anybody who saw Brooks play will testify that he was one of the slowest runners in the league, which also says something about the difference between 3b and ss.

by ken from alexandria on Sep 29, 2008 9:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree. It’s not unusual for a shortstop to be converted to a different defensive position and excel – especially if the new position minimizes his weakness – namely, range. Peralta’s bat wouldn’t play particularly well at third, but it’d be better than Blake/Carroll/Marte, most likely.

Unfortunately, this switch would be de-valuing Peralta, because he is indeed a viable shortstop. That’s why it behooves the Indians to see what they can get on the open market for him. However, if no offer is acceptable, I think the team is upgraded by moving Peralta to third and signing Ellis to play second.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 12:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, but if he maintains his level of hitting and turns out to be, as jhon and I have suggested, an above average 3B, isn’t that more valuable than an average SS with a good bat?

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 2:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Meant to add something else… Peralta’s OPSing .799 this year. ESPN is running slow for me and I don’t have time to dig around, but I don’t imagine there are too many 3B outside or A-Rod and Wright that are OPSing too much higher than that. If Jhonny can be an above-average defender at 3B and still OPS .750ish, he would perhaps be more valuable than he is now.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 2:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There are 13 3B with OPS .800 or better (minimum 100 games played).

by FredOx on Sep 26, 2008 2:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

/tries to remove foot from mouth

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hey, who’s that Casey Blake guy on that list? Is he a free agent? Maybe we could sign him to play third.

The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay

by Buckeye Brad on Sep 26, 2008 8:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and keep in mind that Droobs is looking like he can hit AGAIN … and him playing 3B would be stupid.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Sep 26, 2008 7:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this sums up how i feel. if we’re looking at a roberts type bat for second and seeing if peralta at third is an option, fine. but if it’s for ellis, hudson, barfield, etc just stick with the current set-up.

by Brick. on Sep 26, 2008 1:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You’re seriously underestimating the defensive capabilities of Ellis and (to a slightly lesser extent) Hudson.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 1:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you want me to buy that, you’re going to have to convince me that you’re not over-valuing defense.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 2:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Courtesy of BillJamesOnline’s +/- fielding data from the fielding bible:

The following numbers are all extrapolated to 1254 innings played:

Peralta at SS: -12
Cabrera at 2B: +8
Ellis at 2B: +31

So Ellis has been 23 plays better than Asdrubal at second this year. Asdrubal, meanwhile, has 145 innings’ worth of experience at short. If we extrapolate that to a full season, Asdrubal’s play at short has been:

Cabrera at SS: +35

Obviously, this is a small sample size, but it’s in line with conventional wisdom, as well as past statistics. Replacing Cabrera with Ellis at 2B would be an upgrade (or 23 plays this season), and replacing Peralta with Cabrera at short would also be an upgrade (of 47 plays). That’s 70 hits that become outs.

Even if you allow that the SSS is making these numbers strange, that’s still a huge upgrade. Linear weights tell us that an additional play made by a defender is worth .8 runs (an out is worth -.3 runs, a single is worth .5 runs). So even a 50-play increase would save 40 runs. That’s four wins.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 2:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m a little slow in the head today, so I’ll have to let somebody else poke at your statistical methodology. I’m stumbling more over the price, and over this seeming like a lot of hope to pin on a middle infielder.

Anyway, if he’s all that and a bag of chips, why isn’t he going someplace that will pay him more?

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 2:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There are, of course, legitimate concerns: A) his age, B) his injury history, and C) his relatively poor offensive output (although I believe this is caused at least partly by playing half of his games in Oakland. I also think that not every team has a full understanding/appreciation of Ellis’s defensive exploits. Furthermore, his defense is even more valuable to the Indians – who have a a lot of groundball pitchers – than to a team like the Padres, who specialize in fly ball pitchers.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 27, 2008 12:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks for responding, by the way. Interesting read.

by fleerdon on Sep 27, 2008 12:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have a pretty big problem with the idea that Cabrera is:

1-Obviously an elite SS (better than Ellis, your definition of an elite 2B)

AND

2-Not the best 2B on the list.

Either:

1-Asdrubal isn’t that good at SS
2-Asdrubal would adjust and become stupendous.
3-The numbers are probably not worth much.

I think it’s three.

by afh4 on Sep 29, 2008 11:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do you mean to say you don’t think plus/minus is a very effective tool for evaluating defense, or do you think the sample size is too small for Asdrubal? If it’s the former I don’t think I agree. It’s always been one of my favorites, although it seems apparent that no defensive metric can be looked at in a vacuum.

For anyone who isn’t familiar with plus/minus, go here and click the “Plus/Minus Summary,” and go here for a pretty in-depth interview with Dewan. I think this quote is important:

Dave: The Plus/Minus system seems like a big advance over Zone Rating, which you created about twenty years ago. Do you see it replacing Zone Rating, or is there still a reason to look at both systems?

John: While the Plus/Minus System is an advance on Zone Ratings, the zone rating system is still useful to look at as an additional reference …. The more references there are, the better picture you get. Just like hitting. We can go ahead and look at OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) but it’s still useful and interesting to know how many home runs and RBI the man had.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 30, 2008 12:16 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+/- and I have no beef in theory. But here, in practice, it makes absolutely no sense.

You can’t simultaneously argue:

1-Hey we’ve got the best SS in the majors playing 2B. We’ve got to get him to SS.

and

2-The best SS in the majors is only 25% as good as Mark Ellis at 2B.

That runs counter to my fundamental understanding of the positions of SS and 2B. If someone has some argument that would explain how Droobs is exceptional such that he would excel at SS while being meh at 2B, I’m all ears. But

by afh4 on Sep 30, 2008 8:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is a great point. We can’t assume both that Ellis is far superior to Asdrubal at 2B but then also that once we move Asdrubal to SS he becomes one of the best in the league

by Roger Dorn on Sep 30, 2008 10:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Part of the answer lies in the fact that SS is a lot more important than 2B.

The +- leaderboards bear this point out. The top SSs have a higher +- than the top 2Bs each year. And this makes sense when you think about it: more balls are hit in the vicinity of SS than 2B. So the SS has more opportunities to get to balls.

Mark Ellis’s +31 is extraordinary – most leaders are usually around +25 or so. But Cabrera’s +35 at SS is not off-the-charts good (although it is one-of-the-best-in-the-league good).

We’d be maximizing our defense by letting our best defender play in the most important position, and then signing another awesome defender to play 2B. Ellis probably wouldn’t be as good as Asdrubal at short, but he probably would be (at least almost) as good as him at 2B.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 30, 2008 10:56 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Then why don’t Cabrera’s numbers at 2nd this year match up to Ellis’?

by afh4 on Sep 30, 2008 1:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don’t know if this is the case, but Bill James once pointed out that while we can concede a player having fluctuations in his year-to-year performance at the plate, or on the mound, we just assume everything stays level year-to-year with his glove.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 30, 2008 2:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah but ACab’s numbers aren’t even close and 2B is the easier position for the elite defender.

I just think there’s a lot of holes in the idea that our defense becomes better enough to offset the bats.

by afh4 on Sep 30, 2008 2:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yes

Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.

by Gradyforpresident on Sep 30, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well if you mean that Ellis is not enough of an offensive force to negate our need for increased offense, I don’t disagree. But we can upgrade the offense at first and vastly upgrade the defense up the middle. I’d take that.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 30, 2008 3:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree, Nick, about defense undergoing fluctuations in the same way that offense does. That being said, Ellis has been consistently outstanding, even if not quite as outstanding as he was this year.

Also, as has been stated elsewhere, infield defense is particularly important to us, given the composition of our starting rotation. So the improvement in defense at 2B and SS would benefit us more than, say, the Padres.

Finally, Ellis not as much of an offensive sinkhole as is being implied. I’ve posted this before, but it bears repeating – here are Ellis’s road stats from the past few years:

08 – .282/.355/.435
07 – .293/.357/.450
06 – .243/.316/.367
05 – .335/.387/.515

by Peter Bendix on Sep 30, 2008 3:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m pretty suspicious of any analysis based on freaking Oakland’s park factor. That park was playing as neutral as recently as 2005 and 2006. This isn’t exactly PETCO.

If we’re looking at a good way to predict Mark Ellis’ future production I would think turning 32 and never being very good is a decent place to start.

I’m not even against Ellis. I’m pretty ambivalent. I just find a lot of the pro-Ellis arguments (this road splits thing, the defense so good we must have it thing) to be less than convincing.

by afh4 on Sep 30, 2008 10:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Second base may not always be easier than shortstop over the short run, e.g., if the player in question is far more experienced at shortstop than at second base. Eventually, you would expect almost every shortstop to be as good and probably better at second base, but maybe not in the first year or two.

by Jay on Sep 30, 2008 4:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So maybe we can anticipate the same kind of subpar performance out of JP at third?

by afh4 on Sep 30, 2008 10:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I didn’t say I’d anticipate it, I said it may not always be that easy to “downshift” positions in the short term.

The reason to be concerned about Jhonny at 3B is because he’s not one of the better shortstops, so even if you’d expect him to be effective long-term, the transition might not be that smooth.

by Jay on Sep 30, 2008 10:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, I said maybe.

Let’s pencil in Ellis for a +20, which seems generous considering his age and his history (he’s got on season over +20 in the last three-this one) and Cabrera for a +35. That’s a +55. We’ll leave JP, charitably, at 0.

So, subtract 55 hits from the Indians opponents season totals, almost certainly singles since they are plays made up the middle.

This year, the Tribe gave up 1530 hits in 5599 ABs for a .273 AVG. This goes down to 1475.

1475/5599-a .263 AVG.

No real point here, just fiddling around. In the end though, I find the result sort of yawn inducing. I’m likely misreading the importance here but that’s supposed to substantially improve this team? As opposed to dealing with these numbers?

Our 3B OPS+ : 84
Our 2B OPS+: 78
Our SS OPS+: 125

Asdrubal’s 2nd half OPS+ : 127

Mark Ellis OPS+: 90

Can we let our MI OPS+ over 110 or so and leave it alone? We can’t dig up a 3B who can OPS+ 95 and play ok defense? How about Ty Wigginton? Mark Reynolds?

by afh4 on Oct 1, 2008 1:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If we can find that 3B, I’m all for it.

But of these two numbers:

Asdrubal’s 2nd half OPS+ : 127

Mark Ellis OPS+: 90

I’d say Asdrubal is a safe bet to not repeat. And Ellis’ career OPS+ is 99, although I’ll concede age. Still, he’s got a funky Indians-bullpen fluctuation every other year.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Oct 1, 2008 10:48 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your numbers aren’t entirely accurate.

You can’t just subtract the number of hits saved. The key is that these are EXTRA outs, ADDITIONAL outs. I’ll explain:

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that the very first play of the game is something that Cabrera gets to, but Peralta would not have. With Cabrera at SS, you now only need 26 more outs in that game, AND you don’t have anyone on first. With Peralta, not only do you have a runner on first, but you also still need all 27 outs.

Your math is crediting the defenders with hits saved, but not additional outs gained. Every play made by Defender A that wouldn’t have been made by Defender B is worth .8 runs. A single prevented is worth .5 runs, and an out gained at the same time is worth .3. (These numbers come from linear weights).

So, with your calculations, those 55 missing hits (and added outs) are worth 55 x .8 = 44 runs. 10 runs generally equals one win. So that’s 4.4 wins.

Therefore, the question you should be asking is: is this defensive alignment going to be worth 44 runs LESS than our alternatives?

by Peter Bendix on Oct 1, 2008 1:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m not sure what you’re getting at. When he came up with a ten-point drop in batting average, he was doing exactly what you say — turning hits into outs. He just didn’t go the next step and convert it into marginal runs or wins.

The single/out difference seems a little high at 0.8 runs. With bases empty, the run expectancy difference is less than two-thirds of a run starting with no outs, less than a half-run starting with one out, only a quarter of a run with two outs. That discounts the possibility of advancing runners, which is significant, but often a runner would advance on an infield play anyway.

by Jay on Oct 1, 2008 6:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The single/out difference might seem a little high, but that is exactly why defense is underrated. You can find discussion of linear weights in many places, but this will show the exact value. A single is worth .48 runs. So why use .5? Because, every now and then, a groundball becomes a double. Yes, it’s quite rare, but then again, .5 isn’t much higher than .48.

Shaving ten points off of the opponent’s batting average is akin to removing hits – which are worth .5 runs each. That’d save 27.5 runs. But it doesn’t account for the fact that these non-hits become outs, which are worth .3 each. Hence the 44 runs.

by Peter Bendix on Oct 2, 2008 10:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

here’s my problem. Ellis may be > Barfield offensively, but is Ellis > than the FA or trade options at 3B? Unless I am really sure of that, I don’t move Jhonny.

by DaytonDogg on Sep 26, 2008 11:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There are a lot of better options at third base than Mark Ellis at second, but that’s where cost (in players or money) come into play. And if Jhonny can’t play third the whole thing is off in my mind.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW, here’s Mark Ellis’ salary under his current contract:

06:$2.25M, 07:$3.5M, 08:$5M club option

That’s mega-cheap. In 2007 we gave Trot Nixon $3M. Wouldn’t the yearly money we get from Progressive to put their name on the field cover $3M? Anything extra we have to pay him is barely a drop in the bucket, and we’ve still got a bunch of money left over to throw at an upgrade at 1B, or SP, or whatever. I’m not sure Ellis could command $5M on the open market, but I’d be fine paying that.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I also think Ellis may be undervalued by A) teams that don’t understand/appreciate/know about his defensive exploits, and B) teams that don’t realize how much of his offensive production was sucked up by the Coliseum. Of course, those are probably the same teams.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 12:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not among 3B free agents, there aren’t (the list, again, is Crede, Blake, Ensberg, Koskie, Norton). Maybe you get a nice upgrade in a trade.

by FredOx on Sep 26, 2008 11:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To upgrade via a trade, you have to give something up, and we just don’t have that much that we can afford to part with.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 12:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

THis is why Peralta at 3B is a good idea for us next year. There are more FA options for 2b than 3rd.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Sep 26, 2008 7:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess I’d say I’m slightly cynical but cautiously interested in the results.

Agreed, that’s about where I stand. I think it indicates we’re willing to try out a bunch of options, which I think is generally a good thing.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 11:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My $.02, I’n not completely, 100%, daimetrically opposed to moving Peralta to third, if like nickjs21 stated, we can bring upper level 2B or SS. If all that this move does if free up 2B for Barfield/Carroll, I hate it.

by millionairesrow on Sep 26, 2008 10:50 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it’s important to not read too much into this. In the same way for instance, if there were a series of freak injuries with our catchers you might see Garko play a game. That doesn’t mean Garko is going to be our future catcher (although he hits like one).

I just think the way the planets aligned it makes sense for JP to play one game over there. The other option would be to call up Ensburg/Graffinino/whoever and have them take away AB’s from Barfield/Droobs. That’s not a smart decision.

by Toxicadam on Sep 26, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was having similar thoughts. If Peralta makes a couple of Brooks Robinsonesque stops tonight, is it really proving anything? On the other hand, if he has a horrendous game, I think it shows everyone that we really do need to pick up a 3B in the offseason.

by RD74 on Sep 26, 2008 11:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If he has a horrendous game I think Shaprio knows it would be the smallest of all sample sizes.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 11:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wedge actually joked (not entirely not seriously) about using Victor at third if they have to.

by peter m on Sep 26, 2008 11:18 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It makes sense if you want to get Barfield, Peralta and Asdrubal in the lineup all at once. I’d rather see Carroll than Barfield, just because I want Ozzie Guillen to chock on his own spittle, but that’s just me.

by FredOx on Sep 26, 2008 11:24 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just think the way the planets aligned it makes sense for JP to play one game over there

Well said.

I’ll add to that, even if tonight’s game is A FORESHADOW OF THINGS TO COME, does it really matter? This offense needs to improve by scores and scores of runs this offseason, and we’re worried about how we’re going to deploy our various 85-105 OPS+ hitters? I won’t call it rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, but it might be rearranging our knives on the way to a gunfight.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 11:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Haha, rec

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 12:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rearranging our Three Amigos on the way to a Mexican gunfight.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 12:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rearranging our desktop icons before re-rearranging out desktop icons.

Rearranging the change in our jeans pockets before throwing them in the wash.

Rearranging the GQs and Esquires on the back of our toliets before inviting a girl over.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 12:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

HAHAHA legit LOL

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 12:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Adding Ellis certainly won’t do much to improve the offense (maybe a little, given Ellis vs. Marte/Carroll.)

We’re currently 6th in the league in runs scored, by the way. Our post-all Star game offense has been somewhat better, as this number indicates. I, too, would like to see improvements to the offense (3b, Garko, Francisco/Dellucci, Hafner come to mind), but the pitching should be priority one — the bullpen remains shaky (13th out of 14, I think) and the starters are not what they were when we began the season.

by peter m on Sep 26, 2008 12:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think upgrading first would be a big deal.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 12:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It strikes me that it is very difficult to evaluate the Indians position player talent on a position by position basis right now. It seems the normal tendency is to want 9 players for 9 spots in the batting order and, right now, we have like 4, and two of those are platoons, or time shares, or maybe one of the guys plays a different position some of the time or ack ack ack.

1. Sizemore, CF
2. Peralta, SS
2. Chootierrez, RF
3. Shoptinez, C

It’s requiring me to think about this way more than I’d like to. Furthermore, I can’t just plug in LaPorta at 1B or LF because it’s clear they plan on finding a spot for him once all the other ???’s are answered. I say again, ack.

by NickFantana on Sep 26, 2008 12:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If they were available for purchase, I’d legitimately spend about 20 minutes debating whether I should buy the Chootierrez or Shoptinez player t-shirt.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Sep 26, 2008 1:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You can personalize t-shirts on the website, I think.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 1:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I gotta say, this is the one … anybody who wears this to the ballpark is going to get a lot of compliments.

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice touch with the double zeros.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 3:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks, I think that might be the best part.

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 6:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Platooning with Jamey Carroll is not freedom. Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Sep 26, 2008 2:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

That one may take some explaining to the average fan, who just thinks you can’t spell Pronk.

by fwembt on Sep 26, 2008 6:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe I shouldn’t have said anything.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 27, 2008 8:23 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree. And, that should be easier than upgrading at other infield positions.

by peter m on Sep 26, 2008 12:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m not really of the opinion that anything the front office does this off-season is going to matter a whole lot — that is, anything within our price range. Here are the things that I think would make us a playoff squad next season:

-LaaaaaaaPortaLaPortaLaPortaLaPortaLaPorta
-Choooooooooooooooooo being Choooooooooooooooooooo
-Gutz being August Gutz instead of April Gutz
-Cliff Lee holding serve
-Fausto getting his groove back
-some bullpen productivity out of more than one of Miller, Betancourt, Mujica, Perez, Stevens, et al
-Laffey being strong and healthy
-Huff and Lewis coming out of spring training ready to contribute
-having a first baseman
-Reyes?
-Pronk?

Once you accept that we’re not going to do anything splashy in the free agent market, I think it becomes clear that nothing would help us so much as the guys we have being healthy and doing what they’re capable of. That “6th in runs scored” number seems misleading to me. The teams with better records than us have either outscored us or outpitched us or both by a significant margin.

And our solution to all this is to … move our 101 OPS+ shortstop to third, and fill the hole with a 99 OPS+ second baseman. I respect the effort to improve wherever we can, but really, whoop-de-god-damn-doo.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Not a direct reply to you, pete. I’m just frustrated with the whole Jhonny-to-third vendetta. “Green jacket, gold jacket, who gives a &%$! ?”

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 12:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with what you’re saying, but I doubt anyone things moving Peralta to third is a cure-all. I think it’s a pretty low-risk move designed to provide a little extra benfit if it works and insignificant negatives if it doesn’t.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 12:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Does adding Mark Ellis make us a better team? Most likely. Is this difference significant? Not sure, but here’s something to consider: We’re only three games behind the White Sox in third order wins and are actually a game ahead of the Twins.

I’m not suggesting that this means we should go out and sign Ellis, because there’s the possibilty that our resources could be better allocated elsewhere. I do think we should try to make this a better team for 2009, because the AL Central is a pretty crummy division, and isn’t likely to be much better next year.

by ClarkM on Sep 26, 2008 2:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Of course we should, and will, TRY to get better. But I can definitely see how the organization might view $15 MM or whatever as being more valuable than Mark Ellis, especially in light of the reality that its success in 2009 depends on lot of things outside, or at least peripheral to, its control.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 2:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with the first two sentences here. Those are two of the key questions. We also need to ask how does this affect our options elsewhere. I’m not an expert on the Indians’ salary situation, but I estimated they’re committed to about 54 million to 10 guys (Fausto, Hafner, Westbrook, Martinez, Lee, Dellucci, Sizemore, Masa, Jhonny, and Betancourt) for next year. If they renew other guys (Reyes, Lewis, Garko, Francisco, Perez, Gutierrez, Shoppach, Cabrera, Choo) at basically the same salary as this year (and they may decide to pay some of these guys to keep them longer-term), that’s another 3.6 million or so. Then, there’s Carroll’s option (2.5 million). We’re at 60 million or so. If the team doesn’t increase the budget significantly, that means we have around 18 million to spend on other contracts — free agents, extensions for guys we already have, etc. We need a starter and relief help; signing Ellis at his current salary ($5 milion) would significantly reduce that and take us completely out of the market for the best closers. If he were cheap, then maybe the marginal improvement is worth it (I don’t think so, personally; I’d rather spend the money on 1B). But, if I’m Shapiro, I’m going to try hard to strengthen the back of the bullpen and acquire a starter before I spend money on positions where I have a good option already.

by peter m on Sep 26, 2008 2:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What world are we living in where $5M isn’t cheap? It is.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 3:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not if you’re buying something you don’t need and it prevents you from buying some thing you need and don’t have.

by peter m on Sep 26, 2008 4:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But it’s so shiny!

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

I guess that just comes down to a difference of opinion. If (if if if) Peralta is going to be at 3B, Mark Ellis has a great bit of value. To me. IMHO and whatnot.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 27, 2008 8:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m not suggesting that this means we should go out and sign Ellis, because there’s the possibilty that our resources could be better allocated elsewhere.

Forgive me if I’m wrong, but are you suggesting that signing Mark Ellis handcuffs us to make other moves?

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 26, 2008 3:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To an extent, yes. The Indians do have budget restraints, and I do think Ellis is likely to be more expensive than what has been intimated on here, but I was thinking more along the lines of the 2b, ss, 3b situation, specifically. For example, the Indians might feel its best to go after a 3b and leave peralta and carbrera up the middle. Or trade Peralta for a 2b and install cabrera at ss.

by ClarkM on Sep 26, 2008 3:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and I do think Ellis is likely to be more expensive than what has been intimated on here

Why is that? Not to prod.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 27, 2008 8:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The second base free agent class is pretty weak. It’s Hudson, Ellis, and Durham. My assumption is that he’ll get at least Matsui’s 3/16.5M, but probably not Castillo’s 4/25M. This still isn’t a ton of money, and I am certainly interested in Ellis, even if this is his price tag.

by ClarkM on Sep 27, 2008 10:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That "6th in runs scored" number seems misleading to me.

Not to jump all over you, but I’m not sure I understand where you’re coming from. The fact is that this team sported one of the worst offenses in the game earlier this year- Giants/Padres awful. Since the summer started, they’re significantly better to the point now where only 7 teams are better than they. Taken in isolation, of course, isn’t the point of an offense to score runs? How then, is their rank in so doing going into the last weekend of the season “misleading?” Any 2009 offensive or defensive improvement is a good thing, but the RS situation isn’t nearly as dire as it appeared the first couple of months of 2008.

by spreidel on Sep 26, 2008 2:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It isn’t misleading to say we’re finishing 6th in runs scored this year, because, well, we’re finishing 6th in runs scored this year. But I think it is somewhat misleading to imbue that fact with predictive value. We’d like to believe that this team’s “real” offense is more like the August 2008 offense than the May 2008 offense, but my sense is that it’s somewhere in between the two.

Anyway, I’ve now spent a lot of words explaining why I don’t care if we sign Mark Ellis, which seems to me the very definition of counter-productive.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 3:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well, but doesn’t RS on the whole year take both August and May into account? It does reflect something in between May 2008 offense and August 2008 offense.

by Logodaedalus on Sep 26, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, gotta side with the Doc here.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 3:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

“Real” in that sentence referring to 2009. I see the trip-up. My bad.

by fleerdon on Sep 27, 2008 12:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I hear you. peter m’s original comment focused on the performance since the All-Star Break, but I have a lot of misgivings about the offense for next year that I shouldn’t have tried to shoehorn into this discussion; it’s just what I had on the mind. I’ll reword to reflect what I’m getting at: Just because we’re finishing sixth in RS in 2008 doesn’t give me much confidence that we’ll have the 6th-best offense in 2009.

And not to be a Neanderthal about it, but next year they’ll have to do their hitting BEFORE they’re all but mathematically eliminated.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 3:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hopefully they’ll hit all year. Given the choice though, I’m happier with the way this season worked out than if, say, we started hot, and then went into a prolonged offensive cold spell. At least this way we got some nice prospects, and had a chance to look at some people. I’m sure you don’t disagree, I’m just sayin’, it doesn’t do any good to hit early if you don’t also hit late, and is probably actually worse than the reverse.

by Logodaedalus on Sep 26, 2008 3:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also, I don’t actually see why we shouldn’t expect to have a decent offense in ’09…. A bunch of guys played below their potential this year — probably more than played over their heads… so regression alone ought to point to improvement, without even taking moves into account.

To wit: Victor figures to be more productive next year, if only for statistical reasons; Hafner has nowhere to go but up; A-Cab won’t be as hot as he’s been this last month, but overall should take a step up

Between Gutz and Ben Fran, the combination of the two figures to be about the same (if they’re both here); Grady will be Grady: he’ll most likely see a drop off in SLG, but will likely still be awesome; who knows what to expect from Shoppach? He’s probably slightly more likely to go down than up, but could easily hold steady or improve.

Choo is the main guy that figures to cool off.

Looks to me like it’s not unrealistic to expect that we could be 6th again without any huge moves.

by Logodaedalus on Sep 26, 2008 3:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True, and there should be guys at Buffalo to step in if (when) there are injuries and/or through natural progression.

Also, we’re all very quick to scream mismanagement when the bullpen falters every other year like clockwork, or when high round draftees flame out with alarming regularity, or when veteran FA signings prove superfluous or detrimental in some way. If these are fundamental flaws in Shapiro and co. which must be rectified for the team to contend on a regular basis, why can we not acknowledge one other side of the coin?

This year, the offense will finish anywhere from sixth to tenth in runs scored. Top third in MLB, in other words. It was a top third offense last season. And the season before. And the one before. Ditto ‘04. It’s quite possible that along with whatever flaws exist in the philosophies employed in building other parts of the team, the Indians F.O. is pretty good at building an offense.

So I’m with DFC. Nothing leaps out as being particularly weird about this years bats. Plus, the team is on record as recognizing the need for another impact hitter. Finally, their track record for the last half decade is one of putting together an upper tier offense. While it’s not impossible and while effort to improve is imperative, I think this group of hitters is more than a one month flash in the pan.

by spreidel on Sep 26, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not sure who you’re implicating with “we’re quick to scream mismanagement,” but that hasn’t been my tack here. Nor has it been that this group of hitters is “weird,” or that they haven’t been terribly unlucky.

You guys apparently foresee an offense that will reflect the gains of the second half of this season. I don’t. I mean, they’ve come together and scored a lot of runs for a few months. That’s got entertainment value, but injuries or no injuries, this is an entire roster that didn’t put runs on the board until the season was effectively over. And — here’s the tie-in to the Ellis discussion — there’s hardly anything we can do about it. We can’t afford any real free agent help, and our nearest bat in the minors has never played above AA. This is our team, sink or swim.

I enjoy this team a great deal. But I’m no longer in the mood to give it the benefit of the doubt. As a capper, I don’t see why finishing sixth in runs scored is even an achievement, let alone something to look forward to. Fat lot of good it’s doing us now.

by fleerdon on Sep 27, 2008 12:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it’s worth considering the parallels with 2005, when we had an almost historically bad offense for two months. Starting around June 1, we launched a truly epic comeback that took us to 93 wins (although, oddly, not to a playoff berth). I think at one point we were 77-40, and the offense was very much leading that charge.

The main difference between this season and 2005 is not that we failed to make an epic charge, but that we were hampered by injuries. If we add in a healthy and effective Victor and Hafner (and Westbrook) to the charge that we did make, and if we consequently don’t make certain trades, I think the 2008 club does wind up in contention. And by the way, it wasn’t as though some guys in 2005 didn’t struggle basically all the way to the end — they did, but the team as a whole did not.

But I don’t mean to play what-if. What I really want to point out is that the 2005 offensive bounce-back was reflective of 2004 expectations, and more important, it carried through 2006 and 2007. It showed, basically, that while we might conceivably have another really cold streak, those are still the aberrations.

by Jay on Sep 27, 2008 8:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Regression alone ought to point to improvement, without even taking moves into account.

That’s what was said last season. Wait until 2008!

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 12:32 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right or wrong, that’s kind of where I’m coming from.

by fleerdon on Sep 28, 2008 1:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, maybe 2009 will be the one. We keep betting for red to come up. But past performance…

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 2:07 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You know what Mark Ellis hates? Bunting.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 27, 2008 8:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, well I take it all back then.

by fleerdon on Sep 27, 2008 12:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The best way to improve the pitching is to improve the defense.

Also, check out Mark Ellis’s road numbers from the past few years:

08 – .282/.355/.435
07 – .293/.357/.450
06 – .243/.316/.367
05 – .335/.387/.515

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 1:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The best way to improve the pitching is to improve the defense.

Um… or you could improve the, you know, pitching.

Perhaps you meant the cheapest way to provide a marginal upgrade to pitching is to improve defense.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 2:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Or, most relevant to our case, the pitchers could improve.

by fleerdon on Sep 26, 2008 2:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What about Ellis’ history of injuries? Only twice in the last five years has he played more than 125 games in a season. Next year will be his age 32 season.

Platooning with Jamey Carroll is not freedom. Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Sep 26, 2008 2:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Did you guys know Tom Mastny is Indonesian? I always thought Malaysian, but apparently not.

by Logodaedalus on Sep 26, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And kudos to Jhonny for not making this a big deal (at least in the short-term). It’s nice to see him basically say that’s it not a big deal … he loves shortstop, etc., but he can play third. Contrast that to players whose egos get in the way (Tejeda) and view the position change as a personal affront, a demotion, or whatever.

by macasson on Sep 26, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it’s just because he’s more docile than, say, gary sheffield.

by Brick. on Sep 26, 2008 1:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   2 recs

As are many violent prison inmates.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Sep 26, 2008 1:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Zing!

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 2:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This team wouldn’t be dumb enough to move him permanently there right? Quickly someone give me reassurance: I’m breathing into a paper bag over here!

by Joe. on Sep 26, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i’m thinking it’s one of two things.

1) Pluto has dirt on shapiro and this is “hush money”.
2) Wedge has advised Peralta to boot every chance tonight in an effort to get people to quit suggesting this idea.

by Brick. on Sep 26, 2008 2:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let’s go with two. It’d be more fun to watch.

by Joe. on Sep 26, 2008 2:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BOOO Thome!

just in case.

by Brick. on Sep 26, 2008 2:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Look, you’re really overreacting to this I think. First off, I doubt it’s permanent, Secondly, I reall don’t think it’s dumb at all, or at least not nearly as dumb as you’re making it out to be.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 2:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was obviously kidding with the paper bag thing especially because I don’t think the team would be dumb enugh to make this permanent. It’s in all likelihood a one or two time thing. .But it would indeed be epic retardation if it was permanent.

by Joe. on Sep 26, 2008 2:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why? Not saying I disagree with you (although epic retardation is a bit strong; it’s not like we’d be moving the better SS to 3B in order to keep the crappier one happy), but is it because you think Peralta will be bad at third, because you think there’s a better 3B upgrade out there, or because you can think of a better overall proposition than [2B]/Cabrera/Peralta? I think (a) is unknown, (b) is quite clearly false and © may well be true.

by FredOx on Sep 26, 2008 2:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

did you just try to copyright the word “and”? I don’t think we can let you get away with that

by Logodaedalus on Sep 26, 2008 2:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

For sure C. I find A irrelevant because I think you guys overrate defense a lot.

by Joe. on Sep 26, 2008 3:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That may be because most people (and the media) underrate defense. Much of what is judged as pitching is actually defense.

The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay

by Buckeye Brad on Sep 26, 2008 8:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would also add that one of the biggest changes that Tampa Bay made this year was to upgrade their defense. That’s not the entire reason for their turnaround, of course, but it’s a significant part.

The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay

by Buckeye Brad on Sep 26, 2008 8:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okay, try this one on for size.

Moving Jhonny to 3B is basically like turning him into Casey Blake — similar production at the plate, some defensive skills but also capable of serious butchery.

That being the case, why would you trade Jhonny and re-sign Blake, rather than moving Jhonny to 3B? Doesn’t that give us more value once you add it all up?

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 2:43 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To be fair, Jhonny is younger and is likely to be a better 3B than Casey. However, if we can trade Jhonny to a team that values him as a SS, we should be able to get a decent haul in return.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree that his age makes him likely to be a better hitter, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that he’ll be a better 3B. Third base has its own particular set of skills, it’s definitely not just “shortstop lite.”

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 2:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, but I do not think it is uncommon for shortstops to be successful at third. One of Jhonny’s biggest problems at SS is his range (or lack thereof), and this problem would be minimzed at 3B.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 2:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That depends on whether his problem is overall quickness or his initial reaction and first step. If it’s the latter, his range could well be worse at 3B rather than better.

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 2:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My very inexperienced (and probably misleading) eyes suggest that his problem is more overall quickness. However, I trust the Indians to make the correct judgment. I think it is still unlikely that Peralta will be worse than Blake at third, and much more likely that Peralta would be at least somewhat above average.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 26, 2008 2:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I respectfully disagree with this. I think 3B is, basically, SS-lite. I can’t think of any SS with range issues who’ve been burdened by a position change to their right. More often than not they excel at the position. The biggest obstacle, I believe, is arm strength, which Jhonny clearly has enough of.

I’d expect him to be among the very best at 3rd.

What would Crede look like at SS? A lot like Jhonny.

by jhon on Sep 26, 2008 3:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nah, Crede is not quite as fat, though he’s much uglier.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 4:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think we can respectfully disagree about this. I admit that I’m short on examples of where it’s been a problem, but by the same token, if that is the case, we ought to be moving him to second base.

Arm strength is hardly ever an issue, actually, because the shortstop generally plays somewhat deeper, thus basically about the same distance from first base.

by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 5:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Arm strength is hardly ever an issue, actually, because the shortstop generally plays somewhat deeper, thus basically about the same distance from first base.

Hmm… good point.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 26, 2008 6:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

“I’d like him in the lineup, but we’ve gotta get this guy off Short”
Probably means one of three things:

-He fields well, but his arm is weak. He becomes a natural 2b. The LF / CF are also options.
-He isn’t very sure with grounders at all, or his arm is very erratic: move him to the OF. The Soriano route, if you will. Most 2B and 3B originate as SS. Ryan Braun was drafted as a SS. Yikes! So was Barfield, who should probably be an outfielder… oh, wait.
-He has a good arm, and he’s OK at fielding Short, but for one reason or another it is desirable to move him. Good positional value could be had from this guy playing either 2nd or 3rd, and of course they can play in the OF (just about everybody in the majors who isn’t exclusively a 1B/DH or a C is capable of playing in the OF). I happen to think that Peralta falls into this category. Since he’s made it this far, I have confidence in his ability to field any IF or OF spot—including SS.

by jhon on Sep 26, 2008 7:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just really don’t think we’d get a fair return for Peralta in any trade. He is a great hitter for a SS yes, but is he one of the top hitters in the league? I just don’t see getting the right return for a guy that is not among the best offensive players in the league, even though his position suggests he would be worth it

by Roger Dorn on Sep 26, 2008 3:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But trades don’t happen that way. A team acquires a shortstop because they need a shortstop, and they’ll consider who the best offensive shortstop is, not how he ranks outside his position.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 27, 2008 8:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The idea of having elite fielders at both of the middle infield slots is one I could be easily sold on. I don’t know what it means for everyone else in the infield, but that is all likely in flux regardless of what other moves we make. Significantly upgrading one infield position defensively for something like 1300 innings would seem to cancel out whatever offensive downgrade the move would produce.

by APV on Sep 26, 2008 5:29 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Significantly upgrading one infield position defensively for something like 1300 innings would seem to cancel out whatever offensive downgrade the move would produce.

I don’t know whether that’s true, but if it’s true in general, our particular team might actually come out ahead. Even if the number of runners that reach decreases the same amount for both teams as a direct result of the exchange, a team whose starting pitching tends to be better than their bullpen by an above average amount stands to benefit more from this equal exchange: lower scoring games mean starters last longer, and the bullpen pitches less.

Random thought.

by Logodaedalus on Sep 26, 2008 5:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

YES! YES!

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Sep 26, 2008 7:18 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Sep 26, 2008 7:40 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The name should be at the BOTTOM of the jersey, I think!

by peter m on Sep 27, 2008 11:27 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tonight Hamilton was saying the Indians think Jhonny would be a great first baseman. Soft hands, etc. But they don’t want to move him there because they already have a lot of first baseman (?). They also think Cabrera is great at second. I believe they said he was considered the best defensive 2b in the American League.

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 12:38 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is, for the most part, the kind of things they say to people who aren’t going to think it through.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2008 11:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, they’re just talking, but my sense is it was more along the lines of musing: “You know, Peralta would make a damn good first baseman. He’s got great hands.”

Of course, it seems like a total waste to put someone with a good arm at first base. Maybe they’re musing about it for four years down the road.

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 12:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’ve often thought Peralta might be a good fit at first. But, I can see why the Indians would hesitate to move him there: it would make it harder to play Vic there a lot, meaning Shoppach would play less. It also leaves the problem at third unsolved and creates an opening at 2nd. So, you improve at first, but you might be able to do that through free agency or a trade without disrupting the middle infield. I don’t think they want to move him to third either. My guess is Jhonny will be our SS next year (unless they decide to trade him).

by peter m on Sep 28, 2008 1:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He’s simply not that valuable as a first baseman. As happy as we all are with his hitting right now, that’s because he’s a shortstop. If we thought he could hit in the 850-900 range consistently with a little upside, it would be a different story. But we don’t think that, not at all.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2008 2:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah. If the Indians really want to get a lot better at first, they’d have to play Vic there consistently or go outside the organization. I can see Peralta playing first more easily than I can third, but you’re right about his limits as a hitter.

by peter m on Sep 28, 2008 2:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The suggestion was that he could become a 35 homer guy. I don’t think he will, but it could happen.

by odradek on Sep 28, 2008 5:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think that’s quite a stretch. He’s already surpassed by a bit the ceiling that scouts had pegged for him. I think he’s a one or two notches better than the scouts realized he could be, but it’s a bit much to expect him to rise yet another two or three notches from there.

Home runs by season, majors + minors, ages 18 to 26:

3, 7, 15, 5, 15, 24, 13, 21, 23

by Jay on Sep 28, 2008 11:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, it’s probably wishful thinking. Along the lines of, he’s already exceeded expectations, so what if he keeps going.

Though he would have a shot at it if he played in Chicago or Texas.

by odradek on Sep 29, 2008 1:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But that’s Mark Ellis.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 28, 2008 11:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Constantly updated CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Start posting about the Indians »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Junkballer_small
Anatomy of a Wasted Season

Recent FanPosts

Dv-pabst_small
Your 2009 American League All-Stars
Hansonnnnn_small
In regards to Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko
Junkballer_small
The Struggles of Uncle Jhonny
Burgandy_1__small
Is Our Fans Learning?
Indiansfan-possibleavatarforlgt_minorleagueball__small
It's Time to Begin Working Toward 2010!
Hand_small
Shapiro's Latin American Endeavors
Small
Seeking Jamie Moyer
Jaketaylor_small
Start it with Shapiro
Jaret_small
Kerry Wood - 3 and out?

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

Featured Poll

Poll
Biggest 2009 Breakout
Asdrubal Cabrera
84 votes
Jhonny Peralta
63 votes
Anthony Reyes
51 votes
Jensen Lewis
4 votes
Matt LaPorta
70 votes
David Huff
25 votes
Scott Lewis
14 votes
Aaron Laffey
12 votes
Tony Sipp
13 votes
Ben Francisco
28 votes
Travis Hafner
96 votes

460 votes | Poll has closed

BUY THE BOOK

Indians Annual 2009 from Maple Street Press

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Martin Shines at AAA Syracuse
Gotta love the media
Herges DFA, Abreu Up
Independence Day Rumor Rundown
View From the Booth: Carmona to the Clippers
Meloan dealt to Rays
Newsflash: Zombie Marte Sighted by Fangraphs
Nyjer Morgan is a Valuable Asset...
Indians international prospect ages three years overnight
DeRosa to Have Tests on Wrist

Post_icon New FanShot All FanShots Carrot-mini

SweetBabooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Sweet Baboo, now with glitter


Managers

Seagull_on_sale_pier_small Ryan

Walter_small Jay

Authors

3444ant_black_small APV

47b8dd28b3127cceb64839d9746800000026102bauwjrq3za_small afh4

Official Partner of Yahoo! Sports