LaPorta Slugs 2 HRs in Playoff Opener
by FredOx on Sep 4, 2008 10:23 AM EDT
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Matt LaPorta certainly had an auspicious playoff debut for the Aeros, going 4-for-5 with two homers and a walk in Akron's 6-5, 12 inning victory over Bowie. LaPorta tied the game at 2 with a leadoff homer in the fourth, drove in Wes Hodges to give the Aeros a lead with a two-run blast in the sixth, and drove in the winning run with a single in the 12th.
Wyatt Toregas also went deep for the Aeros, and Wes Hodges was 2-for-5. On the pitching side, Scott Lewis performed adequately, giving up three runs in 5.2 IP, Tony Sipp struck out two but uncorked two wild pitches, and Neil Wagner closed out the game with three scoreless innings, working around a single and a walk in the 12th (with the final out coming, fittingly, on a flyout to LaPorta).
LGF(uture)T.
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That’s always the risk when you trade for a prospect. You have no way of knowing if he’s totally clutch or just another A-Rod. No amount of minor league success can make up for veteran leadership
I sure hope LaPorta doesn’t turn out to be just another A-Rod….
"A good body with a dull brain is as cheap as life itself."
by Fiddlesticks on Sep 4, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Hey, but CC will blow up in the playoffs. He always lets his team down. Everybody says so. Remember?
Don’t worry, Tubby’s gonna crap his diaper this year in the NLCS like he did in last year’s ALCS.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
Kids, take a tip from the master. If all of your predictions happen in some seemingly soon but actually somewhat far-off future, everyone will forget and you can go on saying whatever you want with authority.
Pretty sure that even you will remember this one. Here, I’ll do it again. CC’s gonna fall on his face hard in the NLCS at least once. And by hard I mean less than five innings pitched and more than six runs allowed. Can you remember that?
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
Your like somekind of jealous boyfriend who wants his ex-flame to get hit by a car or something. Seriously dude its kind of pathetic.
Here’s the way I read CC: he’s immensely talented with a terrific fastball, plus curve, good baseball instincts and an exceptional athlete. But – but – he cannot control his emotions. He presses so hard in "clutch" situations that any upset, any upset at all – a walk that he thinks shoulda been strike three – a boneheaded play in the outfield, and he’ll unravel. And yes, I expect the Brewers to make it into the play-offs and into the second round. That’s when the pressure will be up a notch and my boy will delaminate. Let’s see if I’m right.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
I think psychology explains last year’s playoff performances, but maturity and experience might get CC over the “anti-clutch” hump (unfortunately too late for the Indians). He’s not a head case like Carlos Zambrano. He might have learned some better self-control after the ALCS and this year’s season-starting train wreck.
I guess whether CC crumbles deep in the playoffs again or pitches gems, it won’t surprise me.
by cleveland teamer on Sep 5, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s true. People are to quick to write off someone that fails at first in a playoff atmosphere. Peyton Manning is the one I always think of
Agreed. People change – CC might have learned something from last year. But that’s not the way to bet. The smart money is on a repeat performance. Kinda like using this new-fangled statistical analysis thing to predict what’s in the future.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
You said it well before, “looking in the rearview mirror to see what’s coming ahead.” I personally think you are attaching too much meaning to two games. You’ll look like a god if you get this one right, though.
No, he won’t look like a god. I can predict an earthquake to hit San Francisco tomorrow. It probably won’t happen, but if it does that doesn’t mean I’m prophetic. I just got lucky.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
So, just for records sake …
You state that CC will choke in the playoffs because of past perfomances ….
Yet we cannot count on past perfomances to judge what our other players will do in the future.
That to me seems to be a riddle, wrapped in a conundrum.
Nope, the statistical reference was sarcasm. I expect CC to choke in the play-offs because of his inability to control his emotions. CC’s been an outstanding pitcher in at least 75% of his starts. Assuming that, like chicken parts, a starts a start, it would be foolish to think that CC will have a one percentile type start in a particular game – like a pivital championship game. The odds favor him having an average – for him – start. I’m saying he’ll stink. Which, on average, is highly unlikely.
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
Aunt Fae is back for her monthly visit!
I agree, C.C. totally gets overemotional and fails in clutch situations, which is why he’s folding like a cheap suit in all those close games down the pennant stretch for the Brewers — not — just as he did for us in 2007 — not — and 2005 — definitely NOT.
by Jay on Sep 6, 2008 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions
So you’re saying they’re going to get to the NLCS?
Looks like they’ll be playing the Mets or possibly Phillies in the first round.
And in 2009, we’ll have LaPorta, Jackson, Bryson and Brantley/Green, while the Brewers will have fond memories of the Sabathia Months.
and get to talk about how they destroyed his arm in that time for the team that eventually signs him for 1 billion dollars.
this needs to be one of those green starred posts. I fully endorse silly LGT pictures.
by APV on Sep 4, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe there should be a page that collects green’d items from around SBN? Like, it’ll automatically promote the item to a common page for all of the different SBN-MLB sites that gives it some extra significance… it seems to me that the above post is the kind of thing that fans of other teams might find funny. It could encourage interaction across the different home-sites.
I guess an admin would have to approve everything so that people don’t become whores for their own inside jokes.
What would be even better is when Carlos Santana turns out to be some hybrid of Bench, Victor and Joe Azcue. Imagine, getting more for Blake than CC!!
Resident LGT beer kinda sewer
Not such a surprise — we got a lot more for Colon than for Robbie Alomar, and Alomar was a surefire HOFer coming straight off an MVP-caliber season.
Of course, it’s not really fair, because we arguably got more for Colon than any team has ever gotten for anybody. It’s up there, anyway.
by Jay on Sep 4, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh how I wish we had a young Robbie Alomar right now.
by APV on Sep 4, 2008 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
so you’re saying i’ve got 101 at bats left?
by Gradyforpresident on Sep 5, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
i would go back five years if i had one
by Gradyforpresident on Sep 5, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Blah blah the draft.
What international signing would you change if you could go back five years?
We should have a new rule, no more commenting on the draft without an equal amount of commenting on international signings.
by Jay on Sep 6, 2008 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions
favorite minor leaguer….hmm….I think I’m going with David Huff right now. I really want to see what he can do in Cleveland.
by APV on Sep 4, 2008 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Lake County also won their playoff opener last night, 10-4.
Despite all of my best intentions, I have not, in fact, grown up to be a debaser.
Per the Akron play-by-play guy, Santana got injured in last night’s game and has been replaced on the playoff roster by Espino. He didn’t say what happened to Santana, but I hadn’t really heard anything about this.
Akron blown out in the second game, 11-3. Lofgren gives up 4 ER in 1.1 innings, including a salami. LaPorta 0-3.
Despite all of my best intentions, I have not, in fact, grown up to be a debaser.
Yikes, I’m not sure which guy that’s more harsh on.
My first thought was, Garko doesn’t totally destroy most of the games he plays in.
But then my second thought was, Garko did kind of destroy entire months though — not by himself, but he played a pretty big role.
Hello Jay,
I understand your point, but one big difference:
Garko is in the Majors and has been pretty much what we thought he’d be, maybe a bit less offensively and considerably more defensively than most thought.
Lofgren, on the other hand, has stagnated at AA, is teetering toward likely becoming a reliever than a starter, and is now showing signs of that wildness occurring in a bullpen role, something he wasn’t doing throughout his first several outings out of the bullpen.
Therefore, while it’s not a nice comment about Lofgren, it’s arguably harsher on Garko – after all, he is a decent, and even solid at times, Major Leaguer. Lofgren is having trouble maintaining any sustained success at AA, and his age factor, which was once such a positive, is starting to become more of a negative, especially if he doesn’t start excelling, or at least succeeding regularly, at AA in 2009, as he will be 23 early in 2009. If he doesn’t pass the AA test next year, he’ll actually be a bit old for the league, not to mention having spent three years there. As important a year as 2008 was for Lofgren, 2009 will likely be even more important in that he finally get past AA and hopefully show some of the promise at AAA, preferably as a starter, but if not, as a dominant reliever with consistent command.
His lack of success the past two seasons is making me wonder if the Indians would ever consider reverting him back to a hitter, much like the Cardinals did with Ankiel. Recall that many teams wanted to draft Lofgren as a hitter, NOT as a pitcher. Would the Indians ever consider reverting him back to a hitter, or even semi-hitter, and if so, when?
Just my 2 cents – no offense.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Hello GFP,
Thanks for that stat – I guess he’s been a bit above-average offensively, at least for his career.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
and he’s a 1st baseman, too. but yeah, he’s had major league success and lofgren hasn’t and probably never will at this rate.
by Gradyforpresident on Sep 7, 2008 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
That 102 OPS+ from a defensively average 1B — and that is charitable — adds up to a below-average major leaguer. If he were a CF or a 3B with a 102 OPS+ bat, we could call him average, but not at 1B.
Look at this way, he’s slugging .360, and the league average is .426. Among all qualifying major league 1B and DH, he is the second-worst hitter.
The EqA stat, which is more accurate than OPS, has him at .249 this season, while the league average is .260.
Now check out his month-by-month OPS:
2006 – 969, 724
2007 – 710, 1064, 573, 1149, 697, 808
2008 – 700, 661, 654, 680, 770, 507
August is the only month this season where he has an OPS over 700.
I don’t know that I ever realized how streaky Garko before this season — he was bad-to-terrible in four of his first eight months as a player, decent one month, though excellent-to-brilliant in three others. He has, so far, never been just plain “good” for a whole calendar month — he jumps straight from 808 to 969.
I also don’t remember noticing how bad he was down the stretch last year, but it makes the trends more distinct. Garko had a 915 OPS in his first 134 career games, including 119 starts through July 24 of last year. In his next 181 games, he’s had a 704 OPS. That is a massive, massive drop-off.
Garko last season generated 4.2 RC/G en route to 83 RC total. He was expected this season to keep that rate up while getting perhaps 20% more PA — nobody would have been surprised to see him top 100 RC easily. Instead, he’s on pace for about 57, in part because of reduced playing time — my point is that we pay the price for both the reduced productivity and the reduced playing time.
I’d say that Garko’s struggles alone have us nearly 40 runs, or solidly four whole wins, shy of where we thought we’d be. Among the healthy Indians, he stands second only to Betancourt in blowing this season for us.
I agree with everything here. Without the benefit of seeing the numbers, I thought Garko was offensive problem numero uno (excepting the injured Victor and Hafner), although his failure has been made more conspicuous with the disappointments from Asdrubal, Dellucci, Michaels, Gutierrez—pause for breath—and Marte). He has pretty much played himself out of a baseball career, though in hindsight there was no little amount of wishful thinking that he was going to generated 4.2 RC/G..
Hey, you know who else was a disappointment? Blake. I’m glad he had a (BA/bip inflated) great stretch of 200 PAs to bump his trade value, but ignoring his defensive and offensive contributions to how much we sucked April-June is just not giving blame where blame is due.
by fleerdon on Sep 10, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m reluctant to say anything bad about Casey, because his reputation is pretty high around here. And I was concerned I would have to hear about his clutch hitting, and how he is actually a solid third baseman, and an above-average player, etc. So I purposefully avoided him. Also, I don’t know how much of a disappointment he was, because he was expected to be a replacement-level player, and he almost was. He was a millstone around the neck of the team, but his performance wasn’t totally unexpected.
I’m reluctant to say anything bad about Casey, because his reputation is pretty high around here. And I was concerned I would have to hear about his clutch hitting, and how he is actually a solid third baseman, and an above-average player, etc.
Is this a joke? I must not pay any attention anymore.
“Casey Blake is not a mediocre hitter. He is a good hitter. Better than mediocre by any measure, and surprisingly consistent in his above-mediocre-ness.”
Some people seem to think Casey is a good player, and we should get him back so he play every day. Looking longingly back at the good old days, when Casey played alongside Lofton.
I’m reluctant to say anything bad aboutCaseybeer, becausehisits reputation is pretty high around here. And I was concerned I would have to hear abouthis clutch hittingits frothy head, and howheit is actually asolid third basemannutritious breakfast, andan above-average playera friend to those in need, etc.
Fixed.
by FredOx on Sep 11, 2008 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
It may not have been unexpected by us, but the fact that he notched 181 PAs in the first 49 games suggests it was unexpected by the Indians. He OPS’ed about .680 over that stretch, hitting only 4 home runs. From your veteran everyday third baseman? Shrügenblech.
by fleerdon on Sep 12, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s a good point. But in this case I was talking about 2008. You said above you thought he deserved part of the credit for the debacle that is the 2008 Indians. I think Casey played to his level, timed his hot streak well for trade purposes. He sucked, but wasn’t much of a disappointment.
Looking back, we will one day say that Casey’s performance was the best part of 2008, as he played well enough to make himself worth giving up C. Santana for.
Broussard is having a great second half.
I’m somewhat surprised that Shawn Nottingham is still in the organization.
Was just telling Erik last night, I’m going to have to change my Colon-as-Expo avatar for a Bavasi avatar, if Choo and Cabrera can really establish themselves next year. I still can’t really believe those two trades happened, even after two years.
Nottingham isn’t looking great overall, but he’s got the strikeouts, and he’s still got some youth. He certainly handcuffs the lefties — 9.75 K/9, 53.1% groundballs and only 7.8% line drives allowed. His peripherals against righties aren’t bad, but they just hit him too hard.
(One thing about lefty relief prospects, they face righties much more often than lefties, so their overall numbers may disguise the fact that they’re dominating lefty batters. Thank God for minorleaguesplits — I really felt lost without it.)
Hello Jay,
Thanks for the stats.
What, then, would cause someone like Garko to fluctuate so much as a hitter from month-to-month – I don’t recall him being this erratic in the Minors, at least, not until he repeated AAA in 2006 (I think?) He seemed to be on a steady line up until then, and while that doesn’t guarantee a smooth transition to the Majors, it wouldn’t seem to infer he’d be this erratic from month-to-month either.
Is it his approach at the plate, a bit of a long swing, overthinking his at-bats, or something else?
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
The main reason probably is just that a huge part of his overall value as a hitter is in his batting average — he doesn’t hit a ton of home runs and doesn’t have a great walk rate — and pure contact hitting is simply far more volatile than other skills.
I’m not sure I’d call this year’s Garko a “contact hitter” (although I know what you mean — he doesn’t have a very high slugging percentage for the number of hits he gets). He actually has struck out quite a lot (likely to wind up near 100), certainly more than the stereotypical “contact hitter,” if one means by that a guy who consistently puts the ball in play.
he stands second only to Betancourt in blowing this season for us.
who has actually been half-way betancourt the last month or so.
Are we now using Betancourt as a unit of measurement?
Platooning with Jamey Carroll is not freedom. Free Andy Marte!
by woodsmeister on Sep 11, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a Betancourt is about 45 seconds, or the average time between Betancourt pitches. For example: Masa Kobayashi slept with 6 different women in just under 16 Betancourts
by Logodaedalus on Sep 11, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting questions on Lofgren.
While we have to assume his talent isn’t quite what we hoped — he at one point was on nearly the same trajectory as Atom Miller, without Miller’s pure stuff but also without Miller’s injuries — the reports imply that the problems are predominantly, perhaps even entirely, in his own head. That suggests that the talent may still be significant, but of course there’s no given that he can overcome the head problems.
I don’t know that the Indians have ever played around with the hitter/pitcher thing, and it doesn’t seem like the kind of thing they tend to do. Seems like they hardly ever make sudden, drastic moves — moving Crowe to 2B was far less drastic than this, and they basically chickened out almost immediately.
Here’s that old BA scouting report:
Scouts are divided on whether Lofgren will be drafted as a hitter or pitcher. Teams have gone back and forth on him all spring. Most scouts saw him as a hitter at the start of the year and turned him in as a potential first-rounder. Some even thought he was the surest bet of all the high school players in this year’s draft to hit in the big leagues, and said he could hit 35-40 homers a year. They saw juice in his bat and a solid approach at the plate. He was frequently pitched around, however, and he began to swing at bad pitches. He tried to do too much and his frustration got the better of him. He struggled to hit .250 and sentiment moved to the mound, where scouts saw a 6-foot-4, 200-pounder with a power arm, capable of pitching at 88-92 mph and touching 93-94. They also saw a high-maintenance delivery, an inconsistent curveball and a tendency to lose velocity quickly. The general feeling now is that Lofgren’s higher upside is as a position player, even though he’s an average runner and projects only as a left fielder. He finished the year with a .343 average, but only three homers. Lofgren, a Santa Clara signee, would play both ways in college but has expressed a preference to begin his pro career.
Intriguing but not terribly appetizing. Basically, some felt he potentially was a Weglarz/LaPorta type of player, lots of power but no real defensive value, but he hasn’t faced live pitching in four years now. As for his ongoing progress, age 23 isn’t young for Double-A, but it isn’t old, either.
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