A Cause for Optimism

by Ryan on Sep 9, 2008 10:30 PM EDT in News Comment 98 comments

First in a meandering series on the state of the Indians.

The Indians arrived home in early July after an 0-8 road trip. CC Sabathia had already been traded, Jake Westbrook was out for the season, and Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez wouldn't be back for another two months. The stage seemed set for an excruciating last half of the season, tempered only by Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore's respective runs at postseason awards.

Except that that painful second half didn't happen. The Indians are making a run at .500 after being 16 games below it on July 10th, and the root causes of the second half success portend a much brighter future than any of us thought in early July.

(in no particular order)

Jhonny Peralta. After a decent first half, Peralta turned it on after the All-Star Break, hitting .306/.363/.472. His plate coverage and batting eye improved dramatically since his early season struggles, giving the Indians at least one productive infielder.

Kelly Shoppach. In his first chance to play regularly, Shoppach has been one of the best offensive - and heck, all-around - catchers in the American League. His weaknesses are obvious, but as he's gotten regular reps, he's hit the ball with power to all fields. Even if he remains with the Indians, he's not going to be used as a typical backup any more. I think the Indians can put both he and Victor Martinez in the lineup, solving one infield problem for next season.

Shin-Soo Choo. Ben Francisco has been productive for a longer period, but Choo's play has to me been much more impressive. He's gotten on base at a .396 clip and slugged .535, with most of his at-bats coming after the All-Star Break. He took full advantage of his last chance with the Indians, and the Indians as a result probably won't pursue an outfielder in the off-season.

Asdrubal Cabrera. After Asdrubal came back from the minors, he was given regular playing time thanks to Josh Barfield's injury. And he took advantage of the second chance, hitting .303/.393/.439. He changed his stance to adjust to inside strikes, laid off inside balls, and started to crank out extra-base hits. His prime is several years away, but he's already a productive major-league starter.

Because of the above successes, the Indians can concentrate their off-season resources on just a couple areas of need instead of having to make wholesale changes. There are still major questions with this team, including the long-term health of Travis Hafner, the mechanics of Fausto Carmona, and the bullpen. But a 2009 rebound seems a lot more plausible thanks in part to these second-half turnarounds.

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Two additional, though lesser, causes for optimism:

Jensen Lewis.

Some signs of life from F. Gutierrez.

I’m not so worried about Fausto’s mechanics. His year has been shot. It seems this has been the pattern for other injured starters: Westbrook, Lee. It’s hard to miss that much time and be sharp.

by odradek on Sep 9, 2008 10:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I still think by the time the season is over, Sowers will be another positive note. Not the kind of optimism you had for him after 2006. But, the kind where you feel comfortable that he will be a #5 starter for us next year. When you take out his horrible start in Texas, he has pitched fairly well since the 3rd week in July.

If anything, it saves us from having to sign another Paul Byrd-type of pitcher in the off-season.

by Toxicadam on Sep 10, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Indians have no shortage of #5 starters. It’s 3 and 4 I can’t find.

by SuddenSam on Sep 10, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Schoppach has earned playing time and obviously if he’s healthy Victor has to play also. I’m guessing the Indians put both him and him in the lineup a lot next year.

by plato on Sep 10, 2008 12:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who’s on first? Him.
Who’s on second? Him.

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice piece, Ryan, but you forgot to mention that Hafner has a 1100 OPS in the second half.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Take that Chuck!

by Roger Dorn on Sep 10, 2008 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn’t Chuck say Hafner would either have an OPS above 1000 or below 700? He’d either be really good, or bad?

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it was below 600 actually.

by Voltaire on Sep 10, 2008 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only 0.195 behind Pujols and 0.117 behind Quentin. Pronk for MVP!

by FredOx on Sep 10, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hello everyone,

Good piece Ryan.

I think BenFran has been a decent surprise, only because he’s been fairly productive hitting out of the #3 spot, a spot you wouldn’t expect him to hit in. Put in the bottom-part-of-the order, I think you’ve upgraded from Dellucci both offensively and defensively, plus you probably don’t have to worry about if Gutz goes through an offensive drought like he has shown he’ll go through in his time at the ML level – you have another solid option to turn to to fill that bottom part of the order for 2009.

A question regarding Fausto: While I understand odradek’s point about Fausto missing a good chunk of time and the likely impact it’s had on Fausto’s consistency, at the same time, am I imagining it or does it seem Fausto has been “jumping” or “hopping” more off the mound during his delivery than he was in 2007?

I don’t seem to remember his “jumping” or “hopping” off the mound like that during his successful 2007 season; it seemed he was just throwing through without that “jump” in his delivery last season, but maybe I’m just imagining it, thinking that could also partly explain his lack of command this season, even before he was injured.

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Sep 10, 2008 12:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A banana slug is an upgrade from DD defensively.

by FredOx on Sep 10, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There’s no reason to be impressed by Francisco just because he’s hitting in the #3 spot.

I mean, it’s not like people are confusing him for a “real” #3 hitter. When opposing staffs look at our lineup and see Francisco at #3, they’re not thinking, “Okay, Francisco — I can’t let that guy beat me.” They’re thinking, “Okay, this team is in a totally lost season with a horrible lineup — this must be one of the only guys that doesn’t totally suck.”

Moreover, Francisco’s numbers are basically the same in the #3 spot as they are everywhere else. The only lineup spots that stick out in his splits are two breakout games in the #4 spot (a single, three doubles and a home run) and a nice bunch of games in the #5 spot.

Consistent with his hot-start-and-slide from last season, Francisco had a 933 OPS for the first month after his callup (27 games) but just 736 since then (77 games). I am not all that confident that he can threaten an 800 OPS out of left field. He’s still an upgrade over Dellucci, but it’s mostly because Dellucci is terrible.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the more I see of him, the less impressed I am. I’ve been pretty disappointed by his defense.

by Ryan on Sep 10, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Care to elaborate? What are his shortcomings as you observe them?

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They’re mainly defensive – to my eyes his routes aren’t very good, especially for a guy who was a center fielder in the minors. He’s been adequate (for his position) at the plate, though that’s a big improvement over what the Indians had there previously. The whole package just doesn’t seem to add up to a starting corner outfielder.

by Ryan on Sep 10, 2008 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think if the whole bullpen took up the Cliff Lee offseason abs workout, I would be more optimistic. Don’t get me wrong, I am still optimistic about 2009. I would just be more optimistic if they were all doing 8-minute abs each day.

by ShawnK on Sep 10, 2008 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hitchhiker: Yeah, this is going to blow that right out of the water. Listen to this: 7… Minute… Abs.
Ted: Right. Yes. OK, all right. I see where you’re going.
Hitchhiker: Think about it. You walk into a video store, you see 8-Minute Abs sittin’ there, there’s 7-Minute Abs right beside it. Which one are you gonna pick, man?
Ted: I would go for the 7.
Hitchhiker: Bingo, man, bingo. 7-Minute Abs. And we guarantee just as good a workout as the 8-minute faux.
Ted: You guarantee it? That’s – how do you do that?
Hitchhiker: If you’re not happy with the first 7 minutes, we’re gonna send you the extra minute free. You see? That’s it. That’s our motto. That’s where we’re comin’ from. That’s from “A” to “B”.

by painaxl on Sep 10, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Step into my office.

by jds16 on Sep 10, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts on other developments of 2008 and/or plans for 2009:

Shoppach:
Sell high. He’s extremely valuable, coming off a productive year and being under control for three more seasons. The only hesitation is to consider what would happen if Victor went down and another catcher needed to play a significant number of games (see below). Still, I think Shoppach can be swapped for a decent Major League ready corner bat. I’ve mentioned it before, and I’m not sure how realistic it is…but the Padres are rumored to be cutting payroll to near $40M next season. Adrian Gonzalez is signed for three more years. Would the Padres consider a trade of the young slugger? They lack catching depth, with Mitch Cannam, their top catcher, having just completed his first season at High-A. Kyle Blanks, their best prospect, is a power hitting 1B. It’s just one example of a decent fit for both teams. If Shoppach were available, other teams would definitely listen. The Red Sox might be interested, and there’s definitely talent to be had in return. If the Indians want Peralta at 3B, they could slide Cabrera to SS and can demand in return for Shoppach somebody like Jed Lowrie, a capable SS, to fill the 2B void.

Dellucci
So if Shoppach is gone, who will be the backup catcher? Might the Rockies consider David Dellucci for Yorvit Torrealba? Torrealba is signed for $3.5M in 2009 with a $500K buyout on his 2010 $4M mutual option. Conveniently, Dellucci is owed $4M in 2009. Dellucci returns to the NL, pinch-hits once a game, grabs some starts here and there, blasts a few in the thin air, and the Indians get a guy who really isn’t a starter but who could sub for Victor once in a blue moon. It’s not that the Indians covet Torrealba, but the Rockies recognize their mistake in granting him the extension, have given the starting job to Iannetta, and wouldn’t be opposed to moving him. He’s exactly the kind of "bad’ salary-wash contract that would enable the Indians to nab a usable piece rather than just eat Dellucci’s salary. If Torrealba is useless, dump him. Maybe another team might have a use for him at the end of the spring. If Gimenez/Torregas is ready after a half season in Buffalo, dispatch Yorvit as you see fit.

Francisco
He is what he is. He’s been as productive as you’d expect (maybe more). Sure, there’s room for growth. Maybe he has some .280/.350/.500 years in his prime. Maybe I undervalue him. But If some team wants to take a chance on his athletic image in center field (and is willing to pay for it), so be it. The Marlins will have as many as 18! players eligible for arbitration this offseason. That’s not going to fly. Jeremy Hermida is one of those players who’ll be arbitration eligible. He’s still young (24; 25 in January). He missed the beginning of the year with a hamstring injury. He’s been killed by the Marlins park. I doubt the Marlins would deal him. He’s got star potential. The Marlins do need a CF (with all due respect to Alfredo Amezaga). Perhaps they like Francisco, who will have near 1.050 days of MLS after this year. Maybe they like Gutierrez, though he’s enough to alone net Hermida. Still, Hermida is exactly the type of young outfielder the Indians should be after (potential for immediate breakout production). I’m just not sure Francisco has that breakout potential. If you play it steady, you keep Francisco. I just feel like Francisco will be to left field what Ryan Garko is/was to first base: a place warmer.

Adrian Gonzalez and Jeremy Hermida are examples of me reaching, perhaps. But Shoppach and Francisco don’t need to be traded (much like the two targets). Both are cheap and under control. Both can bring decent return. I’d at least explore the possibility. Both Gonzalez and Hermida are young enough and under control so as to not be rentals. I’d rather leverage these pieces than spend $10-12M annually on Bobby Abreu or Raul Ibanez.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 3:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

According to ESPN’s Park Factors, Dolphin stadium has been playing about the same as Progressive Field, a slight pitcher’s park.

In regards to Hermida, I think a trade is going to be difficult as the Marlins would probably want us to pay for his productive ’07 season and not his dissapointing ’08 season. Even with the pressure from ownership to cut payroll, it just makes no sense for Beinfest to trade Hermida.

Cody Ross, not Alfredo Amezaga, is the one you should be apologizing to.

by ClarkM on Sep 10, 2008 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marlins were reportedly moving Hermida to Pittsburgh in the Manny /Jason Bay deal. And certainly, Manny was only a rental in Florida. The Marlins would have benefited from Manny down the stretch, but they realize the huge payroll increase that’s set to occur with all their arbitration eligible players. The Marlins know talent and aren’t afraid to deal talent if they get back what they want.

As for the home/road splits I was referring to, I’m just making note of his depressed home numbers. Get him into the Progressive Field RCF jet stream (or away from whatever is haunting him in Florida) and I think things would change. Maybe it’s just random variation, but it’s been consistent the last few seasons.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Torrealba – my impression is that he is demostrably unhappy being the backup in CO. He would not be any more happy being the backup in Cleveland. Why pay that kind of money for a guy who’s going to be unhappy in his role. Sure, putting Dellucci on somebody else’s bench would be a bonus, but still, why trade one problem for another?

Andy Marte is free at last! Now, if only he got to bat with men on base...

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Sep 10, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, our backup catcher is going to play quite a bit going forward with Vic getting more starts at 1B. At least that’s my impression.

by afh4 on Sep 10, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Playing “quite a bit” is not the same as being the #1 starting catcher.

Andy Marte is free at last! Now, if only he got to bat with men on base...

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Sep 10, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But it’s more than he might play in Colorado, no? I mean, there are degrees here unless Torrealba is much more upset than I realize.

On top of that, who cares what he thinks. He can’t hit. He’s a backup C. Get over it. Is Yorvit Torrealba’s attitude really going to poison our whole season?

by afh4 on Sep 10, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is what’s being said 1) as Victor rehabs and 2) under the assumption that Shoppach will be here next year. If Victor can again be a 130 game catcher (and honestly, why can’t he?) then the back-up will again return to being a secondary concern so long as Vic isn’t injured for an extended period of time.

Victor will be 30 in December. But Shoppach turns 29 in April. Plus, Vic wasn’t a catcher until the Indians moved him there. I like Vic moving forward.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Victor only played 121 games at C last year. It’s entirely possible that he’ll be able to get back to 130 but I would think we’re looking at a 115 game guy. They were already trending that way with their usage before the injury and even if the injury didn’t affect his ability to catch, he’s still getting older.

by afh4 on Sep 10, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not the matter of Yorvit being cheap or expensive. It’s a way to jettison Dellucci because they both will make $4M next season (assuming Yorvit’s 2010 option is bought out). Then, rather than just flat out eat Dellucci’s contract, the Indians get a live body in return. If all goes to hell, you can then dump Yorvit and you end up eating the $4M anyway. Or, if he’s somewhat productive, you’ve got a decent backup or a cheap, mildly productive catcher that some other team might covet (and pay part of his salary).

Either you change your position not at all (end up eating the $4M) or you improve (get production from a position of need, if a vacancy is created, and/or flip him elsewhere and unload some of the payroll burden). Having somebody like Yorvit in a backup role does less damage than having somebody like Dellucci in a frequent playing rotation.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the mutual salary-dump aspect, but I have to think that Torrealba is more valuable than Dellucci for the same money. I think we’d have to eat part of Dellucci’s money to do that deal.

Going back to your original post, if the Giants truly are stripping down, there’s no reason they’d trade three years of Gonzalez for three years of Shoppach — they’d want someone younger, and under longer control.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depodesta has said they’ll remain mindful of the potential to quickly rebound in a division that always seems up for grab, but that they understand the need to build a nucleus. Honestly, I believe their nucleus involves Adrian Gonzalez. I think it’s unlikely they trade him. Not impossible, but unlikely.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think in general, this is one of the biggest mistakes rebuilding teams make — they’re at rock-bottom, and they’re pretending that their guy with 2-3 years left under contract is a core player. It’s a massive inefficiency in their efforts to make the team competitive again, because those players are incredibly valuable in the trade market.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. It’s the Nick Swisher/Dan Haren scheme. I think Depodesta is smart enough to realize a true reconstruction of that team requires some tough decision making, and he hopefully has enough sway to convince Towers. Different situation, but Depo did trade LA savior Paul LoDuca. The man will make a move, but he’s not the one in charge over there.

Gonzalez is signed CHEAP ($13.25M from 2009 to 2011 if you include his club option), will be only 27 next April, and I think is primed to be a beast if he escapes 80 games of PETCO. If he were available, I know the Indians would take a look.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can’t remember the last time anyone but Beane traded a “core player” type two-plus years before free agency, without getting an established big-leaguer in return.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ed Wade’s an idiot – who can we fleece from them? Dellucci and a box of donuts for Wigginton and Berkman?

As an aside, Brandon Backe has a higher OPS than 6 of the 10 guys who batted for the Tribe last night.

by FredOx on Sep 10, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Choo has been a great sign of life. I’m hopeful that the outfield can be at least average. Shoppach has made me hopeful for 1B with Vic playing there alot and LaPorta and Mills in the wings. But what about 3B? This has been a perennial problem for the Shapiro years. The tribe can’t go into 09 with their starting 3B being someone the manager will not play (Marte). There are no in house options. This is the major problem for 09.

by oxforddave on Sep 10, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The PD this morning cites Shapiro as saying the two most urgent needs are a closer and an infielder. My guess is that means 3B. Unless they’re willing to shift Peralta (I doubt it), I think they’re going to have a tough time finding a really solid guy for 3B. So, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they actually don’t do much at third and focus on pitching instead. I think the pitching, not 3b, is the biggest problem. They need to solidify the starting pitching (which has been good, but now relies on a lot of young, unproven guys) and they need to upgrade the bullpen. I’m still scared of just about everyone out there except Perez (and to a lesser extent Lewis).

by peter m on Sep 10, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Masa was horribly misused. He’s a 50 inning pitcher. Maybe 55 at max. Wedge let him throw 40 innings in the first HALF (I’m not talking All-Star break. I’m talking the first three monthsof the year). He threw 46 innings ALL of last year in Japan. He was on pace for 80 innings in the US. That’s why nobody is surprised he broke down. Granted, Wedge didn’t have anybody else to turn to and Masa was throwing well. Masa will be ok with rest.

Lewis and Perez will be fine. And I think Betancourt has figured himself out a bit. I don’t want to say he’ll be back on track in 2009, but I think he’ll be useful again.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A 50-inning pitcher is okay, but might be a problem in a tight pennant race (uses roster spot but you can’t pitch him much down the stretch). Masa did pitch well, but he’s also given up some HR’s and is far from overpowering. He’s a useful pitcher in a set-up role if he is in a deep bullpen. They don’t have a deep bullpen … yet, anyway. Betancourt has looked better, but still isn’t all the way back. So, that’s two guys (if you count Lewis), plus one maybe and a limited guy in Masa. They need at least two more guys out there on whom they can count, I think.

by peter m on Sep 10, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The homeruns (eight surrendered so far) scare me. But you look at somebody like Okajima, a relief “ace,” and he’s given up six in about the same number of innings. You hope that with rest, Masa will be more effective. And less homeruns will result. You can ask whether he was ineffective because he gave up all those homeruns, or did he give up all those homeruns because he wasn’t properly rested?

The Indians don’t typically carry a long man. If Masa will be limited by his innings, the Indians have the luxury of pushing Lewis and Perez (both former starters). Betancourt will have his uses next year. And if a closer is brought it, the rest of the guys can work the 7th and 8th innings. Having an effective Masa once every three games is better than having an ineffective bunch.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Basically agreed. But, if their rotation next year includes more than one of Laffey, Sowers, Jackson and Reyes, I suspect they may carry a long man. They’ve had a really strong set of starters for the last few years, with pitchers who generally went at least six innings (only Byrd sometimes didn’t make this threshhold, and even he was pretty reliable). With young guys in the rotation, I don’t think you can be as confident about “quality starts,” which means you risk blowing out your bullpen if you don’t have a guy who can pitch 3 or 4 innings when needed. In fact, that may turn out to be Jackson’s role next year.

by peter m on Sep 10, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In that connection, I think the Twins, who have had young starters this season, have been using Bass in that role.

by peter m on Sep 10, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what it’s worth, I believe they just dealt him.

by CBusSteve on Sep 10, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I hadn’t seen that. I guess Bonser has taken over that job.

by peter m on Sep 10, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bass vs. ZJ in Baltimore on Thursday.

Has anybody suggested ZJ as a nickname if Jackson sticks around? Are Beerfest references worth anything on LGT?

by cleveland teamer on Sep 10, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you have to ask, you can’t afford it.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 10, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

“Granted, Wedge didn’t have anybody else to turn to and Masa was throwing well.”

There was a lefthander in the bullpen, name of Breshnev. Never used.

Wedge’s bullpen usage is profligate. Worry about tomorrow later—get Perez up.

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, the lefty’s name was Kosygin. (sorry, couldn’t resist).

by peter m on Sep 10, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The one Wedge refused to putin the game?

by SuddenSam on Sep 10, 2008 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ha!

by cleveland teamer on Sep 11, 2008 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, there’s Hodges. Gulp.

by afh4 on Sep 10, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess 3b is a problem. But the tribe absolutely can go into 09 with Marte starting. You can win the world series with one lousy starting position player. The ‘07 Red Sox shortstop had an ops+ of 65 and their starting cf’’s ops+ was 83. the ’06 Cardinals catcher, 2b, ss and lf had an average ops+ of 71.5. The ’06 White Sox had only 3 starting offensive players with ops+ over 100. You can expect good years from Victor, Schoppach, Hafner, Peralta, Grady, and Choo. Probably average years from Asdrubal and Francisco. You can certainly afford to suck at 3b.

by plato on Sep 10, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the Indians suck at third base in 2009, it won’t be with Marte. It will be with Bill Mueller or something. Andy is done around Cleveland. Isn’t that clear from the way he’s been handled?

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let’s hope he has a few more 2 for 4’s so we can trade him for something, then.

I’m sure they’ll TRY to upgrade at third, but I’m not sure that they’ll be able to get anyone (I agree with xrickx who types faster than me, apparently!). If they can’t, they may give the Marte/Carroll “platoon” a little more time. who knows?

Blake may not WANT to come back. He did comment the Indians fans had been tough on him!!

by peter m on Sep 10, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marte/Carroll platoon: Carroll gets 80% of at-bats/Marte gets 20%. Or maybe 90/10?

Blake might not want to come back? Boo-hoo!

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe in wishful thinking.

by peter m on Sep 11, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ack. I can’t think of anything I’d like less than Jamey Carroll getting 80% of the at-bats at third base. Even the resigning of Casey Blake would be better than that.

Platooning with Jamey Carroll is not freedom. Free Andy Marte!

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Sep 11, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There’s a nice ambiguity in the word “resigning.” I would happily accept Blake’s resignation as Tribe third baseman.

by peter m on Sep 11, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s just that the alternatives aren’t that great. Even among entrenched third baseman, there’s much to be desired.

You look at Adrian Beltre. He’s rocking .268/.329/.462 line this season. Compare that to last year’s .276/.319/.482. Kouzmanoff, for all that he’s missed, is posting a .270/.307/.444 line. The Dbacks are living with 200 strikeouts from Mark Reynolds and his .242/.322/.474 line. Aside from your Wrights, Arods, and A-Rams, third base is slim. Edwin Encarncion might be attractive if 1) the Reds were interested in moving him (they might be), 2) he could play any semblance of defense (he can’t), and 3) his numbers weren’t inflated from playing in Cinci’s bandbox.

Maybe the Indians will again go after Casey Blake to bridge the gap to Wes Hodges. It’s just ironic that when Marte is dispatched, the exact type of player Cleveland will be looking for is the one they’re going to let go—young, good defense, offensive upside.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

KK’s line is not at all bad considering it’s Petco and he’s cheap. He may not be a core player, but he’s serviceable.

I don’t see us getting Shapiro’s infielder through free agency — Orlando Hudson, maybe? Our best opportunities will be through a trade, but Shapiro has never been one to trade for an established player — nor has he ever shown much talent for it.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Matt Lawton back in the house!

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To me, Beltre’s, Kouzmanoff’s, and Reynolds’s lines look good to me, especially compared to what the tribe has now. It is not the fact that the tribe is weak at 3B, it is more the fact that they are extremely weak.

When the Barfield Kouzmanoff deal went down, it was somewhat surprising, mainly from a San Diego fan’s view. Why trade a young 2B after a good rookie season for a minor league (albiet major league ready) 3Bman who is defensively challenged? But Towers reason was that it is easier to find a stopgap for 2B than for 3B. There are plenty of Carroll types (e.g. Inglett, Belliard, Giles) out there who can be adequate (though not that good). But the drop off at 3B is steep. Becuase of this, I’d take Beltre in a heartbeat, and easily trade Shoppach for him even considering the salaries.

by oxforddave on Sep 10, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Three years of Shoppach traded for one year of Beltre.

Absolutely not.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was under the assumption that Beltre had two years left on his contract. Checking, I see that I was wrong. Yeah, agreed, bad deal. What would you consider a fair offer for 1 year of Beltre? Gutierrez? Mills?

by oxforddave on Sep 10, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There’s a lot of things I like about one year of Beltre. His price isn’t one of them. Assuming the Mariners don’t eat a lot of it— and I guess that’s not out of the question with their payroll abilities —I wouldn’t give too much.

If it was just Gutierrez? Yeah, I would do that. I don’t see why the Mariners would unless they really see potential in him. And even then, no one there has completely committed to rebuilding just yet.

If I’m the Mariners I ask for Laffey and work down the pitching totem pole from there until I can get something reasonable.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 10, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve caught myself rosterbating again, and it’s not even November.

This is going to be a long offseason if the PTBNL discussions foreshadow anything.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 10, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry for contributing to your rosterbating. The 06 offseason began with a big need for a 2Bman, this year it will begin with a big need for 3Bman. Funny that that “solution” at 2B (Barfield) turned out to be far from a solution.

by oxforddave on Sep 10, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not so much that I’d mourn Gutierrez as that I think we can get more for him, given the demand for superior defensive CF. I mean, the guy without exaggeration really might be the best defensive outfielder in the game, at least he’s not far from it.

So Gutierrez might be too much to pay based on value. Gutierrez and Dellucci might make sense, though.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not that I disagree with you. It’s just that I don’t know how much Seattle cares about outfield defense. With every opportunity in the world to DH, they’ve kept Raul Ibanez in left field all this time. Dellucci would be an upgrade.

But ah, that all depends on who they bring in to run the team, doesn’t it? That makes it hard to speculate.

As to your point about Frankie’s D, I agree.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 10, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you get the best 2B, SS, or 3B you can and work from there.

by APV on Sep 10, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

for now, that’s carroll

by Brick. on Sep 10, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s interesting that Shapiro is saying “an infielder.” Not a third baseman or a first baseman. I think they will get the best player they can—including a first baseman?—and rearrange things based on acquired talent. Would this suggest Victor rather than Shoppach is trade bait? My presumption is that Garko has disestablished himself as a starting 1B.

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s interesting that Shapiro is saying "an infielder." Not a third baseman or a first baseman. I think they will get the best player they can—including a first baseman?—and rearrange things based on acquired talent.

Correct. It’s good leverage.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 10, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not opposed to getting a 1B. But I think the question of 1B is separate than the question of filling in a hole at either 2B, SS, or 3B (presumably with Peralta and Cabrera slotted into two of those spots).

by APV on Sep 10, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is all going to be moot when milwaukee makes the playoffs and we select gamel

by Brick. on Sep 10, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you mean Matt Gar Gamel I assume

by APV on Sep 10, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe if you get a good enough first baseman you can afford to play a bum at third, with Peralta and Cabrera in the keystone. But even then, I guess, Marte wouldn’t figure in their plans. He’s not even good enough to be a bum.

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If by bum, you mean someone who is an awesome defender but “limited” with the bat, I’m all for it.

Of course I have no idea who that would be.

by APV on Sep 10, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wedge’s interpretation matters more than mine. I suspect someone like Bill Mueller or Tony Graffanino rather than Eric Chavez.

by odradek on Sep 10, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Garko’s final option will be used next season and he spends time in AAA. He might work his way back, but he really blew a good shot at being the regular first baseman by having such a down year. If anything he’s good depth at AAA for us.

by hans on Sep 10, 2008 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What are the chances of Shin Soo Choo being our everyday RF next year? His splits aren’t as bad as you might think. I certainly hope he will be.

by Joe. on Sep 10, 2008 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think it’s his right now. but he will still sit a little more than a typical every day outfielder. in other words, he’s not half of a platoon, but he is the heaviest used peice of a three-way platoon, sitting for the occasional match-up.

by Brick. on Sep 10, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the chances are very high Choo will start the season playing every day in RF. We have other areas of much more desperate need. If we somehow acquire an established outfielder, Choo will not be the odd man out.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From 2005-2007, in the majors, Choo’s splits:

Versus lefties: .179/.258/.179
Versus righties: .274/.356/.439

In the minors, in his career:

Versus lefties: .250/.340/.368
Versus righties: .307/.394/.472

And this year, in the minors:

Versus lefties: .288/.364/.458
Versus righties: .300/.398/.542

Plus, he’s been used very sparingly against lefties his whole career. So I think that Choo would need a platoon partner in the outfield who can handle lefties. Fortunately, there are lots of those guys around, and they tend to be pretty cheap.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 15, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This year in the majors:

Versus lefties: .295/.368/.459
Versus righties: .302/.399/.547

Choo’s OPS against lefties trails only Shoppach and Cabrera among current Tribe regulars, and his platoon differential is better than Grady’s is. 68 PAs in 2008 is definitely a SSS, but Choo’s need for a platoon partner is less certain than it used to be. Choo has a better OPS against lefties this year than Morneau does.

by FredOx on Sep 15, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t buy that 59 at bats this season against lefties has too much significance. Yes, they are the most recent ABs, but 59 is such a small number as to be almost meaningless.

In over 1100 total at bats in the minors, Choo has almost a 160 point difference in OPS against lefties. While it’s very possible that Choo has improved against lefties over the course of his career, his 1100 minor league at bats mean a lot more than 270 at bats this year.

Choo wouldn’t embarrass himself against lefties. But there are many players who can hit lefties but not righties who are freely available. One of these players would greatly improve our outfield.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 15, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How many of those players are out there, really? Quality righty bats are in short supply in general, and carrying one takes up a roster spot. I think it would be a waste to carry three lefty outfielders and two righties.

by Jay on Sep 15, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quality righty bats are in short supply, but if you need the guy to hit exclusively against lefties, they are much easier to find. A quick search reveals:

Cody Ross, Bill Hall, Scott Hairston, Marlon Byrd, Reed Johnson may all be expendable. They can all play the outfield and rake against lefties. Some of these guys may be too expensive, but Ross and Hall can probably be had relatively cheaply.

From the “4-A player” section, we have Brandon Boggs, Chris Aguila, Val Pascucci, John Gall, and Christian Colonel. Granted, I don’t know about any of these players’ defensive capabilities, but they can hit lefties.

I think platoons are undervalued in today’s market. Pairing Choo with a guy who smokes lefties would lead to a very productive corner outfield spot for a fraction of the market rate.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 15, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Grady Sizemore vs. lefties in 2008: .242/.368/.414.

by peter m on Sep 15, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Grady has had a pretty severe platoon split every year of his career except for 2007, and we’re willing to put up with it. I want to see how Choo does playing every day before we spend a roster spot on yet another platoon.

by FredOx on Sep 15, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you!

by peter m on Sep 15, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, Grady has a severe platoon split. But against lefties, Grady has gotten on base 33% of the time in his career – and over the last two years his OBP against lefties has been .384 and .368. Sure, he’s not as good as he is against righties, but he’s certainly not hurting the team against lefties.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 15, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We’re saying give Choo a chance to demonstrate the same growth. He’s showing some signs. Let’s see what’s happening before we sign another Jason Michaels type (he’s probably available, by the way).

by peter m on Sep 15, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs