Rotoauthority finds no relationship between weightloss & performance improvement.

by KevinV on Jan 5, 2009 2:33 PM EST

Before I started writing this, I assumed there would be little if any correlation between spring training reports (of weight loss), and increased level of performance. Most players chronicled here, actually did worse.

(I was going to make this a FanShot, but it wouldn't let me both quote and link)

After the recent Hafner-lite bar sighting, I thought this article might be of interest. 2008 Indians on the list include Garko, Victor and The Close, all having lost weight and having under performed in 2008.

Hafner's weight loss is due to his recovery from surgery. Whether he will keep it off longer term is unknown. Personally, I think his performance is going to be 98% determined by his health. If he comes back healthy, even if much lighter than his listed 240, he will be a big contributor.

But for those of you thinking that a leaner Hafner might be ideal, this is some evidence to the contrary.

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Hafner really can only go sideways or higher. I don’t expect any sort of regression

by Roger Dorn on Jan 5, 2009 3:48 PM EST reply actions

Not to pour on too much haterade, but if his shoulder is still screwed AND he’s smaller AND he’s less comfortable with his swing, he could definitely do worse. Of course, we’d never expect him to play under those conditions, but the pressure to see results might coerce Wedge into playing him sooner than he should (even if subconsciously).

But, as we’ve discussed, we can really only speculate on Hafner until we start to see some play out of him.

by danvail on Jan 6, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

Remember the good ol days when we were excited about Vic looking trim last ST? Man we must’ve been high as kites last spring.

by supermarioelia on Jan 5, 2009 6:09 PM EST reply actions

Victor injured his hamstring on Opening Day and played with an injured elbow for most of the season. His performance had nothing to do with weight loss, unless somehow losing weight makes your hamstring weaker.

by Ryan on Jan 6, 2009 12:50 PM EST reply actions

This is far from a “correlation.” If it’s a correlation, what is it? What’s the correlation coefficient?

This purely anecdotal, and that’s all. There are lots of reasons why a player might lose weight. It could be a guy who’s been sick or injured. It could be a guy who’s already “lost it” and think (wrongly) that this will help. It could be a guy whom it will actually help with his range and agility on defense.

I see no real correlation whatsoever here, but the original article didn’t claim one. It’s just reporting on the usual memes and mythmaking of these kinds of spring training reports.

by Jay on Jan 6, 2009 1:42 PM EST reply actions

Imprecise wording in my headline.

“Rotoauthority finds no relationship between weightloss & performance improvement” would have been more accurate.

by KevinV on Jan 6, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

There, fixed.

by KevinV on Jan 6, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t think I’d call it anecdotal, just statistically meaningless. It would take a LOT more data and a much more nuanced set of categorizations to be able to find any sort remotely predictive trends for a specific set of circumstances.

Long story short, I think what the author was trying to demonstrate was that there is specific evidence contrary to the “cliche” that intentionally trimming weight or intentionally bulking up leads to performance improvement.

Looking at what we can take away from this, I’d point out that many here (I believe) correctly pointed out the public relationsiness (new word!) of the Hafner losing weight story. That story attempted to prey on the idea that this article disputes, that if a player is intentionally changing his body weight then it’s a good thing. This article does a passable job of, given one year of data, demonstrating that no such trend is evident.

This article also references a statistically sound piece that correlates body mass to power by age group. That, too, speaks to our situation with Hafner. He’s not as big, expect even less power. It’s an obvious conclusion, but it’s part of shaping expectations for 2009.

by danvail on Jan 6, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions