Transactions: Indians Sign Carl Pavano

by Ryan on Jan 7, 2009 8:00 PM EST in Transactions Comment 17 comments

Signed RHP Carl Pavano to a One Year, $1.5M Contract

The Indians are facing a difficult obstacle in 2009: replace three-fifths of last year's starting rotation, not only in performance but innings. Only three starting pitchers on the 40-man roster threw more than 100 major-league innings last year: Cliff Lee (223.2), Fausto Carmona (120.7) and Jeremy Sowers (121.0). So even though there is talented starting depth on the roster, endurance is going to be a problem. One way to get around that is to add more depth, which this signing was designed to do.

Rather than go after an innings-eating pitcher with less ability, the Indians decided to purchase a lottery ticket; in other words, pay a little for the remote possibility of a big payday. Pavano hasn't pitched a full season since his last year in Florida, and even before that has had problems staying on the mound. Since July of 2005, he's only thrown 45.7 innings. Hence the Indians wrote into the contract an extensive incentive structure (scroll down) based on starts and innings pitched. If he somehow makes 35 or more starts and pitches more than 235.0 innings, he'll have earned $5.3M in bonuses. Even a more realistic season will net Pavano much more in bonuses than his base salary.

Even if we make that leap of faith and assume Pavano can be an everyday starter, what kind of performance will the Indians be getting? I don't think even the Indians know. Pavano might be extremely motivated, he might be relieved to have moved on from New York, and he might finally be healthy, but that doesn't change the fact that he's essentially been out of baseball for 3.5 seasons. The way the contract is written, there's not a lot the Indians can lose, but their odds of getting quality innings from Pavano are likewise remote.

Designated 1B Michael Aubrey for Assignment

The Indians still had an option year on Aubrey because of all his injuries, but his future with the team had long since been derailed. Michael actually had a relatively healthy 2008, and finally got some at-bats in the majors, but he only posted a .746 OPS for Buffalo, not good enough for a 26-year-old first baseman.

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Just reading between the lines, the real upside in this deal is that it seems Pavano himself feels like he’s finally ready to go. He didn’t end last season on the DL, he came back for the last month and made every start in September coming off major surgery. The pretty ridiculous incentives he agreed to, and the general tenor of his (sparse) comments leads me to believe that he feels good and has some personal confidence that he’s ready to pitch some goddam games fer realz.

Of course, his body may betray him, but it doesn’t seem like he’s just thinking to take the 1.5m and run. Or sit, or whatever.

by mcrose on Jan 7, 2009 11:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pavano has always had serious questions about his dedication, but even so, this deal seems fine for the same reasons that Jay pointed out in the FanShot – if he comes close to meeting half of his incentives, the salary will be well worth it. Guaranteeing him a rotation slot is a little annoying, but it’s not like Scott Lewis, Aaron Laffey, et. al. were pounding the door down with their performances.

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by Kyle Boddy on Jan 8, 2009 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah, its not the dedication or injury concerns that bother me- the contract structure makes that a non-issue. its that, for the last several years, he hasn’t been very good when he has pitched. I’m not convinced that he has the ability to out produce laffey, huff, lewis, et. al. However, since we have two spots to fill behind lee, carmona and reyes, I’m ok with it.

by Ryan Kelsey on Jan 8, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It is a legitimate concern that we’ll lose a few extra games on the way to determining that he’s not a viable starter. There is little evidence, however, that he would be healthy enough to pitch and not at least a #5 guy, so that risk seems no greater than any other guy we’re going to throw into that spot — including Reyes.

I think the simplest way to look at this is that we’re looking at a five-way competition for the last spot — Aaron, Jeremy, Zach, Scott, and David — and Pavano is taking a rotation spot away from the second-place finisher in that competition.

by Jay on Jan 8, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like that way of looking at it.

By the way, when did you get on a first name basis with everyone on the 40 man? Just find it interesting, especially from someone that pays attention to their own style and tone.

by Ryan Kelsey on Jan 8, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I go back and forth in Comments and in casual conversation. In main-page posts, I would tend to go AP-style.

by Jay on Jan 8, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the simplest way to look at this is that we’re looking at a five-way competition for the last spot — Aaron, Jeremy, Zach, Scott, and David

Let me see if I understand this. Winner gets the Cy Young, right?

by SuddenSam on Jan 8, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That is correct. And Cliff Lee gets traded to the Padres.

by Jay on Jan 9, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

…for a package centered around Kevin Kouzmanoff and Brian Giles

by APV on Jan 9, 2009 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not mad at the new banner.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jan 8, 2009 7:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wait… we were dating Alyssa Milano’s blog? When did that happen?

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jan 9, 2009 8:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that this is a good question.

by NickFantana on Jan 9, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nick has spoken

by Brick. on Jan 9, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I mean, I just wish I’d known. I could’ve been nicer instead of just ignoring her blog, ya’ know? Now I look like an idiot for all those “sure, whatever’s” when we were supposed to be dating… Geez.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jan 9, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs