Mid-Season Rotation?
by CaptainPenny on Jan 9, 2009 1:12 PM EST
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PrintA lot of candidates and a lot of "ifs" for the Tribe's starting rotation this year. What do you think the starting rotation will look like after the All-Star break? My prediction (admittedly a bit off-the-wall) assumes that they're in the thick of it and but decide they have to take some risks to make the playoffs:
Lee, A. Miller, Sowers, Wood, S. Lewis
[This means Carmona (injury), Pavano (ineffective), Westbrook (still rehabbing), Laffey (ineffective), Huff (not called up yet) are not contributing and J. Lewis is closing]
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Either Miller or Wood spending time in Cleveland’s rotation this regular season would be a complete departure from organizational philosophy regarding pitching/injury management – and contrary to the FO’s statements.
In the best possible world (I think) for the Indians, the 2nd half rotation is Lee, Carmona, Westbrook, Pavano and Reyes. This means Reyes, Pavano and Carmona have all stayed healthy and effective, it means Lee is closer to 2008 than 2006-2007, and Westbrook is back and healthy. It also means we have a nasty AAA rotation featuring Huff, Laffey, Sowers, SLewis et al. I think the chances of this happening are somewhere down below 10, and probably closer to 1.
by APV on Jan 9, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
In this scenario could one of our AAA pitchers gets traded midseason?
A pitcher like Laffey who’s healthy, pitching well in AAA, and who’s had some minor league success could be useful to a desperate team in a playoff race.
Its an interesting hypothetical.
by world dictator on Jan 9, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
What’s the offensive mirror of this?
Hafner on fire since coming back early May, Victor contending for a batting title, Shoppach fighting for PT against a resurgent Garko. Meanwhile DeRosa isn’t bleeding any PT, and Barfield is a sitting so long as Asdrubal is hitting .290+. Francisco’s and Choo’s OPS are steady at .825 each, and we’re on pace to score 1100 runs.
The last three seasons the Indians have had 6 starters make at least 12 starts. The two years prior to that only 5 guys did (which is pretty amazing). I think in 2008 it is likely we’ll have 7 or possibly even 8 guys make a dozen starts depending on how much of a race we are in. This will in part be because of injuries, but also because of the strong desire to make sure we have the best possible team out there and the multitude of options we have to fill out the starting rotation.
I agree that the chances of Wood making any starts is zero – they invested too much in him to even think about reverting back into a starter, a role he has not fared well in over the last several years (moreso due to injuries than to ineffectiveness, although he wasn’t as effective in that role due to the numerous injuries he’s sustained).
I also think the chances of Miller returning to the rotation are remote – the only POSSIBLE way I could maybe see that is under the following conditions:
1. Virtually most to all members of the rotation are struggling, injured, or both.
2. The Indians think that they can transition Miller to the rotation during the season by stretching him out, with him turning into a starter toward the second half of 2009.
However, I think #2 has less than a 1% chance (just slightly higher than Wood turning into a starter) of happening because of Miller’s injury history, plus the fact that the situation described in #1 would be so dire that the likelihood of us still being in contention would be so remote that there would be no real point to rush Miller back into the rotation in 2009.
Instead, they’d stretch him out in 2009, even if we aren’t contending (let’s hope that’s not the case), with a possible return to the rotation in 2010. As tempting as it would be for the Indians to make Miller a starter again, I think they are going to be extra cautious to make sure he can stay healthy in 2009 and get back into a good rhythm before they consider returning him to the rotation in 2010. The risk of injuring him long-term and not getting any contribution from him at all will likely temper any thoughts of inserting him into the rotation in 2009 no matter what the circumstances are.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I like to prime the pump here at LGT. I also like to not work on my course prep.
by APV on Jan 9, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
any ineffectives and not called up yets will start before miller and wood do. so will any trade targets, other minor league pitchers and position players.
I think we trade with Pittsburgh for their Indian cricketers before Wood gets a start.
by woodsmeister on Jan 9, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I read today that the Pirates released a Saudi tanker. They must be desperate. And those Indian duded supposedly never played cricket. They’re javeliners, if you can believe it.
by odradek on Jan 9, 2009 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That’s right. I don’t know why I was thinking they were cricketers.
by woodsmeister on Jan 10, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
There is a 100% chance Wood doesn’t start a game this year, and a 99% chance Wood never starts a game again.
But yeah, if those other things happen the way you say, it’s going to be a long season.
This might seem high, but I’d say there’s a 90% chance Miller doesn’t make a start this season either. (In Cleveland)
If we get to the point where we need Miller to start a game, our season is over, and there’s no need to put undue stress on Miller’s arm.
by world dictator on Jan 9, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Hello WD,
I said pretty much the same thing above (sorry, I didn’t see your post), but I think the chances of Miller NOT starting this season is at least 99%, mostly because the only chance of him getting into the rotation in 2009 would be if most or all of the rotation is injured and/or ineffective, and under that scenario, I really can’t see the Indians being in contention that would make the Indians even consider inserting Miller into the rotation in 2009.
I think the earliest Miller returns to the rotation is 2010, and that’s provided he remains healthy and gets into a good groove during the 2009 season. No matter what the circumstances are, I can’t see the Indians risking Miller sustaining a serious and/or long-term injury by inserting him into the 2009 rotation.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
2010 is probably even early. He’d really need to prove himself durable and increase his innings total year over year in order to break into the rotation. His innings totals for 07 and 08, 65.1 and 28.2, respectively. The Indians are going to be exceedingly cautious with him.
Hello danvail,
That’s certainly a possibility, since I’m not sure the Indians would want to push him to 175-200 IP in 2010, provided he throws around 75-100 IP as a reliever in 2009.
Certainly, they’d like to get his arm in the rotation for 2010, but I can see where that could be a possible problem and 2011 would be a better bet (provided Miller remains healthy from here on out).
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
If Laffey and Pavano are ineffective, Fausto is inured, Westbrook is still rehabbing, and Reyes has been written out of history, why hasn’t Huff been called up yet?
By the second half, it’s possible that Huff will be close to his IP total from last year. They’ll stretch him obviously to a point.
This is unlikely to be a factor. Huff threw 145 innings last year, and I’d imagine the Indians would be fine with a 30 inning bump, maybe even more if Huff is needed down the stretch.
The premise of this post sounds like the pitch for the next Major League movie.
by KevinV on Jan 9, 2009 3:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Lol wut.
Actually when you filter past the ridiculous parts (no offense Cap’n) it’s a hard question to answer. This thread might be worth bookmarking for the All Star break.
Lee
Carmona
Laffey
Reyes
Huff
This is assuming:
A) Westbrook isn’t ready yet; Maybe he’s still rehabbing his way through the minors, or maybe (just maybe) they’re stretching him out in long relief.
B) Pavano didn’t earn his keep. I hope we have to pay him $6 mil but I think this is an easy bet to make.
C) Reyes and Laffey have outperformed Lewis and Sowers. I don’t know if this is straight out of spring training or a decision that had to be made between three of them when Pavano was removed, but all my scenarios play out with Laffey and Reyes being the best of the four.
D) Huff is a world beater. Or at least better than Sowers and Lewis.
In any case it looks like a summer trade is pretty likely as long as the starters left in Columbus aren’t pitching like Barfield hit last year.
And to whomever is reading this in July and laughing at me because my predictions are terrible, get bent. Boo Thome. Don’t Boo CC.
Steel Nick
Boo nick
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Jan 10, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
There are a lot of interesting story/performance-lines to watch this season. Sowers is a big one.
by APV on Jan 9, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Is he?
I thought he was an interesting storyline last season. This season, I’ve kind of moved on. I’d like him to be a decent fifth starter, but I won’t hold my breath.
I think it is. I’m still holding out hope, buoyed by his success at AAA and initial success (lucky or not) in the bigs, that Sowers can figure it out and become a productive starter still.
by APV on Jan 10, 2009 8:25 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec for using the word “buoyed” in a non-nautical-related sentence.
by woodsmeister on Jan 10, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
1. carmona
2. lee
3. reyes
4. laffey
5. huff
with a significant drop off from 1-2, and pretty tight grouping in 2-5.
furthermore,
6) lewis
7) sowers
pavano will be jettisoned/injured by mid june.
and westbrook, when ready, will take the spot of whomever is struggling among 3-5
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Jan 9, 2009 5:29 PM EST reply actions
I hope Pavano is either entrenched in the #4 spot (#3 until Jake returns) or LONG GONE by mid-June. If he’s crapping out, I’ll be pissed off if he’s still getting starts in any part of June.
Il faut d'abord durer.
I think, given the overall assets, that for him to crap out and still get starts in June, four or five other guys would all have to be struggling or injured. Having said that, I think we have to be expecting Byrd-in-a-bad-month in April, and if that happens, we have to judge what we see out of him in May.
Don’t we typically give starters a lot of breathing room? Jason Johnson wasn’t DFA’s until Jun 20th in 2006. How much worse could Pavano really be than 06 Jason Johnson?
It’s a myth that Johnson was especially bad. He was typically mediocre for a fifth starter, and the infield defense was butchering balls in play relentlessly, inflating the ERA of every starter. When they ditched Johnson, it had less to do with how he’d performed and more to do with wanting to promote Sowers, plus they apparently didn’t like Johnson’s attitude.
Fair enough, but I think it’s a reasonable comparison, is Pavano likely to be so much worse than a 76 ERA+ that he gets yanked prior to June?
Would Shap have made that signing if he thought there was a strong chance of Pavano being that terrible? I mean he knows Wedge grants a long leash…
What if he’s right on par with that? Do you think we’ll have a shorter leash this year than in 2006?
That depends. If he’s on par with Johnson’s 5.05 FIP, he probably won’t be removed. Keep in mind, bad defense doesn’t just inflate ERAs, it also reduces IP. Johnson was averaging 5.5 per game despite this.
That makes sense, but it seems unlikely we’ll see bad defense inflate Pavano’s numbers to the point where he seems like JJ Part Deux by traditional metrics. As you say, a solid Peralta and a plus defender on either side and we should look pretty good defensively.
Chances are, if we see a Pavano with a 76 range ERA+, he’s earned it. Hopefully it won’t take until mid-June for a replacement to get a shot at replacing a struggling Pavano.
1. Carmona
2. Lee
3. Reyes
4. Pavano
5. Laffey
6. Huff
7. Lewis
8. Sowers
I think Pavano becomes league average and Huff doesn’t make the jump quite as quickl as we are hoping.
Barring an injury or someone being exceptionally the FO has more or less told us this will be the rotation.
In Pluto’s latest article he quotes Shaprio in being “adamant” about Laffey being in the rotation.
by world dictator on Jan 11, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Laffey’s one of my favorites, but I peg him for next year’s injury victim.
by APV on Jan 9, 2009 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Hello APV,
Let’s hope not regarding the injury; technically, Laffey was an injury victim in 2008, since his season did end well (granted, after he didn’t fare as well as the previous few years).
If that becomes the case, that would be two straight years Laffey is bit by the injury bug; let’s hope that’s behind him (and all our players, including Hafner and Martinez).
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I think he’s going to settle in as a 4.80 pitcher, and we’re going to figure out that he’s not likely ever to be much better than that.
i still think he has a reasonable chance at being better than that. but first, i think he’s going to get injured.
I’d be happy with Laffey as a reliable 4.80 pitcher. I think 4.80 is a tad pessimistic though.
by world dictator on Jan 10, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
Laffey pitched a couple of great games in 2008 that I remember. The one that stands out was the awesome game he pitched against the Yankees, which he lost on a frustrating series of swinging bunts, poor fielding and bad luck. He has the ability, I think, to be a better pitcher than 4.80, but the real concern is health.
Why is health a concern for Laffey? Does he have an injury prone history I’m unaware of?
by world dictator on Jan 11, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
The Rangers would like to have five or six.
by odradek on Jan 12, 2009 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Haven’t looked it up, but presumably Columbus will not suppress offense as much as Buffalo did, so will Indians have AAA stats that are more realistic?
Shoot, maybe a couple guys can hit 30 HRs. Makes you wonder about Ernie Young. Maybe he really was good?
anyone know of the dimensions of Columbus’s park?
by Ryan Kelsey on Jan 16, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
This is cheating, but I am changing the question a little bit.
Rotation, last half of season:
Lee
Carmona
Bedard
Huff
Westbrook
DL: Pavano, Laffey, Reyes
Cot’s doesn’t have Bedard’s contract status updated for 2009. He’s still arb-eligible looks like, so it’d be a rental basically, at maybe a 5 million cost.
Your scenario involves:
No longer in the system: Weglarz.
egads
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Jan 10, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
Salaries pretty much never go down in arbitration, and there is a presumption of a big jump in salary as your service time increases. This actually makes no sense and is entirely self-perpetuating, but that’s how they do it. Expect Bedard to make the same or a little more than the 7M he made last year.
I’m shocked no one has Tomo Ohka in their projected 2009 rotation.
by PatBordersHelmet on Jan 10, 2009 4:25 PM EST reply actions
Your Second Half Starters:
- Carmona – on his way to a Cy Young
- Lee – Comes back to reality, but still solid #2
- Pavano – heading towards 17-18 wins and Comeback Player of the Year consideration(*)
- Westbrook – very shaky but gets better each start
- Reyes – Solid.
In Columbus but having seen time in the show:
- Laffey
- Huff
- Sowers – but without the ML callup
(*) Pavano wins every game he starts against the Yankees while CC goes down with a minor abdominal strain and is on the DL for a month, never quite getting in the grove afterward.
Still the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer" and confident that there's still a lot of Pronk in Hafner. Oh, and for all the love of Cliffy, there's still a Sleepy Kitten inside.
… leading rise to debates like, “Carmona may not even be the best starter on that team. Have you really looked at Pavano’s numbers? With a little better run support …”
My only fear (in the fearless world of January Predictions for awards handed out in over 10.5) is that strong performances by Lee & Co. might detract a vote or two away…
Yeah, it’s the middle of January and the team’s pretty much set. There’s little more to do than daydream about the team doing fantastically, dare I say unbelievably, well.
Still the local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer" and confident that there's still a lot of Pronk in Hafner. Oh, and for all the love of Cliffy, there's still a Sleepy Kitten inside.
I’m really worried about Fausto going into this season. I’m talking about staying-up-in-the-middle-of-the-night-style worries. Am I the only one?
by supermarioelia on Jan 11, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Probably not. But I’m not worried, for whatever it’s worth. Is there a reason to doubt him now more than there was after 2006? No. In both cases, he’s got the fundamentals, he just needs to stay healthy and make sure his mechanics don’t get out of whack, both things he’s done before.
Yeah it’s just the mechanics that worry me. That sinker is such a beautiful thing as long as he can throw it for a strike…I just hope that he can control it well enough that hitters can’t continue to take so many pitches from him. It started to get a bit ugly in that respect last season.
by supermarioelia on Jan 11, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know if this is worthy of its own post, but I caught this on lookoutlanding
Jeremy Sowers had the biggest (relative) increase in fastball velocity of any pitcher in the bigs last season. Reason for hope?
more like heason for rope. yeah, i said it.
by Brick. on Jan 14, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This reminds me of when my brother won the “most improved” award in bowling after intentionally averaging a mid-30s score for half the season back in grade school.
by danvail on Jan 15, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Be hard to get three pins a frame, but it might not be that hard to get 9s (or so) every three frames (or so) and gutter balls the rest of the time…
by Logodaedalus on Jan 16, 2009 2:04 AM EST up reply actions
Does Chad Pennington not do the NFL equivalent of this on about a monthly basis?
by supermarioelia on Jan 16, 2009 8:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He’s pacing himself for 35 year career.
Signature to be named later.
by emd2k3 on Jan 18, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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