Minor Improvements: Pitching
by APV on Oct 27, 2009 4:34 PM EDT
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PrintUPDATE: I left off Alex Perez (and stats tables)
Just like my previous post on positional prospects, I will try to highlight a few of the seasons by pitchers which showed the most improvement on the 2008 season. Here we have a combination of guys. Once again, top prospects show up prominently. But we also have a few guys coming off injury and few guys who just stepped up and had much improved seasons.
Chuck Lofgren had one of the most improved seasons, but this is largely a reflection of how terrible his 2008 season was. Lofgren is still a long way from being the prospect he was in 2006 as a 20-year old in Kinston. This was the first season he has brought his BB-rate under 10% since that season. Given his flyball tendencies (GB-rate: 35.9%) and K-rate (15.8%), Lofgren also still doesn't look like a part of the Indians future.
| ERA | aFIP | H/PA | HR/PA | BB/PA | K/PA | GB% | IP |
| 4.63 | 4.15 | 20.0 | 2.7 | 8.1 | 15.8 | 35.9 | 141 |
Yohan Pino is another guy who probably would need to follow up on this season's improvements with another equally improved season in 2010 to really get much attention, but he did make nice strides in 2009. While advancing to AAA from AA for half the season Pino upped his K-rate (16.1 > 23.7), lowered his BB-rate (7.9 > 5.6), and cut his HR-rate in half (3.4 > 1.7). These numbers are actually more in line with his career norms than his disapointing 2008, which doesn't mean he is much of a prospect, but it may mean the Indians picked him up at the right time.
| ERA | aFIP | H/PA | HR/PA | BB/PA | K/PA | GB% | IP |
| 3.44 | 2.83 | 21.4 | 1.7 | 5.6 | 23.7 | 36.2 | 127 |
Hector Rondon definitely is a prospect. I would say without much hesitation he is the Indians best pitching prospect. What Rondon did in 2009 was maintain his excellent 2009 numbers while advancing to AAA and actually lowering his BB-rate considerable (7.0 > 4.8). Rondon should be in the rotation mix for Cleveland sometime in 2010.
| ERA | aFIP | H/PA | HR/PA | BB/PA | K/PA | GB% | IP |
| 3.64 | 3.38 | 23.8 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 22.8 | 37.0 | 146.1 |
Jeanmar Gomez probably had the closest thing to a breakout season of any Tribe pitcher. He was already an interesting prospect coming into 2009, but there were questions about his stuff at higher levels. What he did was rise to the occasion in a major way, punctuated by a mid-season no-hitter. Spending most of the season getting his first exposure at AA, Gomez maintained a solid GB-rate (46.5 > 48.7) while edging his K-rate up over 20% (18.1 > 20.2). Gomez won't turn 22 till mid-season in 2010.
| ERA | aFIP | H/PA | HR/PA | BB/PA | K/PA | GB% | IP |
| 3.82 | 3.30 | 21.9 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 20.2 | 48.7 | 147.1 |
Paolo Espino had an interesting and perhaps under the radar 2009. Espino was limited in 2008 while coming back from injury and pitched primarily out of the bullpen. This season he stayed healthy, but he also transitioned back into a starter's role. Espino is yet another pitcher whose decent K-rate (21.2%) and decent BB-rate (6.5%) combine to make him a considerably above average control pitcher (3.25 K/BB). Espino still isn't a great prospect, but he has positioned himself to make himself interesting in the Akron rotation in 2010.
| ERA | aFIP | H/PA | HR/PA | BB/PA | K/PA | GB% | IP |
| 3.68 | 3.01 | 19.9 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 21.2 | 40.6 | 134.2 |
Josh Judy had been a favorite of mine ever since I first encountered his name (I really can't wait for the day that Judge Judy's court is in session at Jacobs Progressive Field). Judy was one of the more important parts of Akron's outstanding 2009 bullpen. Judy pitched 54 innings and showed excellent peripherals (32.1% K-rate, 8.2% BB-rate, 50.4% GB-rate). Judy's ERA and adjusted FIP were both solidly under 3.00. He is another name to keep in the back of your head when thinking about the Indians bullpen in the latter half of 2010 and spring training 2011.
| ERA | aFIP | H/PA | HR/PA | BB/PA | K/PA | GB% | IP |
| 2.87 | 2.83 | 17.9 | 0.9 | 8.3 | 32.1 | 50.7 | 54 |
If Gomez stepped up and showed himself to be a legitimate upper level prospect, Alexander Perez stepped into the role of next best young pitcher. Making his full-season debut, Perez was sensational all year until he was shut down with a strained shoulder late in the year after having been promoted to Kinston. As a cherry on top, Perez spent most of the season under the age of 20, while putting up great all around numbers.
| ERA | aFIP | H/PA | HR/PA | BB/PA | K/PA | GB% | IP |
| 2.99 | 3.65 | 21.6 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 22.9 | 48.9 | 114.1 |
I'll look at some of these, and a few others in more detail later in the off-season. For now maybe we can have something other than Manny Acta to talk about.
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Has there been any news recently about Adam Miller? I feel like he had his surgery and has never been heard from since.
Who? or maybe, ¿quién?, in the parlance of our times…
by gte619n on Oct 27, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I don’t get why Pino needs to follow up his good last year with another, while Rondon should be in the rotation mix in 2010. According to B-Ref, Pino’s career and 2009 HR/9 is better than Rondon’s, ditto his K/9, and his BB/9 only very slightly higher. His WHIP has been better than Rondon’s at every level except AA. He is older and has been putting up good numbers for longer; he should be more ready.
This is where it gets a little tricky. Pitchers don’t show the same kind of age development in their basic ability as hitters do. A pitchers raw stuff is likely as good at 22 in most guys as it is at 27. However, some pitchers do learn how to pitch better with the stuff that they have. So on one hand, maybe we should view Pino and Rondon’s numbers independent of age. Except that Rondon has gotten to where he is at pretty much in a rapidly ascending straight line through the minors. His “stuff” and ability have never really needed any learning period to figure out how to be successful. Pino has. He made strides this year, but I think there is reason to suspect he would need to make similar improvements to succeed at the next level, that being the majors. Until the Rondon bus hits a speed bump it is full speed ahead (like Huff a year ago, I would add, prior to hitting his speed bump). Pino is still trying to get up to speed following the strong correction he experienced in 2008.
I would say without much hesitation he is the Indians best prospect.
You do mean pitching prospect, no?
I’d put Carrasco on par with Rondon, and I think most here would if they had they both had come up in our system. Carrasco’s a year older, but they track together very well in terms of level, age, and performance from A ball up.
Rondon’s big advantage is his control, Carrasco’s is his overall stuff and use of offspeed pitches. Their biggest similarity is that neither has ever been truly dominant at any time (better put, neither has been left at a level long enuf to truly dominate), marked by the fact that they both give up about as many hits as innings pitched – not the mark of a truly top notch pitching prospect. Again, with the caveat that they both have always been young for their level – it’s hard to predict how they’ll settle in.
Their cumulative minor league numbers (per 9 innings) are pretty close (both have been durable as well):
Rondon: 9.0 hits 1.9 BB 8.0 K’s
Carraco: 8.1 hits 3.4 BB 8.1 K’s
I think they’re both solid prospects right now. If Carrasco can settle himself down mechanically to have longer stretches where he has command, he can be a lot better. If Rondon develops his offspeed pitches to better complement his plus fastball command, he could be very good as well. My take is that they’d both get hit pretty hard at the major league level without progress along those lines.
Yeah, that’s Rondon’s big strength, not only in comparison to Carrasco, but as a stand-alone metric. I just think that since Carrasco arrived as a “former” #1 prospect, he shouldn’t be overlooked in any overall ranking of pitching prospects. They’ve had an almost identical progression through the minors in terms of age, level, success.
Milb.tv broadcast most of the Clippers games, and after Rondon was promoted I watched several games – caught Carrasco as well after the trade. Rondon has a really smooth and repeatable delivery, lives off his fastball, but his offspeed stuff just wasn’t as developed. Carrasco, on the other hand, has a much fuller assortment of pitches he can use, while still being a power pitcher – but his wildness/walk rate seemed more to do with the fact that he would slip in and out of repeating his delivery than any fundamental inability to control his pitches. When he was on, he was pretty nasty, not just with the fastball.
I always figured Josh Judy would make it to the big club someday (he was born in Wedge’s hometown, Fort Wayne).
Sorry about that, Josh.
If you believe it's just a game, you're also probably wondering why Santa keeps skipping your house every year.
I actually live in the same subdivision, here in fort wayne, as some of Josh’s relatives. They live two houses down. Nice people. I really hope he does well…I’ve certainly liked what I saw from him this year.
by MooneysRebellion on Oct 28, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Small sample size, to be sure, but Rondon is off to a rocky start in the Venezuelan Winter League, according to Tony Lastoria:
Rondon, Hector 11 IP, 13 H, 8 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 1.240 WHIP, .289 AVG, 6.35 ERA
by ken from alexandria on Oct 27, 2009 9:57 PM EDT reply actions
If the argument goes (Huckabay I think…) that the upper tier pitching prospect is a ticking time bomb and any time he has spent supposedly harnessing his craft in AAA or whatever is wasted time not with the big club because he can blow up at any time, why wouldn’t Rondon start immediately with the big club?
I mean seriously… did we not learn anything from keeping Adam Miller down? Watching Rick Porcello do exactly what he needed to do?
I have wondered the merit to this as well. Of course I think there’s a need to build a pitcher’s innings pitched gradually, and Porcello’s jump may impact him next season, but that can be managed appropriately in the big leagues to minimize risk (big innings jump).
That shouldn’t be an issue for a team going nowhere (Indians ’09), though. I think cheech99 is onto something.
by ken from alexandria on Oct 28, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with both Jay and your statements, Although I wonder what the point of bringing up the player early in a non-competitive year would really be? I’m guessing that developmentally it would benifit him to get the first round through the bigs out of the way in a less pressure atmosphere, plus learning the ins and outs of adjusting and pitching at the major league level. I wonder if he struggles will that reduce his value though (is the AAA stud percieved to be more valuable then the guy having a mediocre rookie season?, Then again when do we ever trade these types of players?).
I have to agree that a balanced approach seems appropriate to the moment. If we were looking at a run at a postseason spot with a shallow rotation — as we thought we were this season — then I could see “pulling a Porcello” with Rondon. I think the idea that you should just shove these guys into the majors has some real merit.
I say throw them into the fire, and worry about scraping together a September staff when the time comes if they have all reached their inning limits. Probably not a very high chance of making the playoffs next season.
Right, I’m not saying blow past his incremental innings limits by any means (unless we’re improbably in the horse race), but short of starting his developmental clock, I don’t see why he wouldn’t start with the big club.
I’m not saying he doesn’t have anything left to prove at AAA, but I think I am saying he’s one of the best 5 pitchers to open the season with.
I think a telling sign will be where they place Alex White next season. The truly conservative placement would be Lake County (which I don’t think they will do). I think the Indians will place him in Kinston. If the Indians start him in Akron, that would be a sign of a much more aggressive approach to young talent.
Tony Lastoria seems to think that he’ll begin the year at Kinston and would likely split the year between Kinston and Akron depending on how he performs.
Kinston looks to have an interesting rotation going for itself
Alex White
TJ House
Nick Hagadone
Kelven De La Cruz
Fill in the blank (Bryan Price?)
I would expect the De La Cruz and Hagadone could get moved up before anyone else. I doubt he reaches Akron, but I would figure we see Jason Knapp in Kinston at some point as well.
Yeah same here, probably more than Hagadone does at this point.
Although if Hagadone stays a starter, maybe he’s the higher upside of the two?
Seems like a weird pair to compare. Hagadone is older and much much more advanced. His issue is health. If he’s heathly, all indications are that he’s going to zip up the ladder.
House is a young but promising arm that’s just flailing away. Unless he has a significant breakthrough, he’s just going to be one level at a time.
I think, and this is something I’ll probably try to explore more during the offseason, that the Indians handled their minor league pitchers a little more aggressively this season. I interpret that as them actually learning something from Adam Miller, as well as Scott Lewis, Chuck Lofgren, etc, etc. I think the Indians do pay more attention to issues of roster construction, options, service time, and basic player development issues than an organization like Detroit does – but I think there is still quite a bit of room for pushing pitchers a little more quickly.
so does this mean they won’t spend this off season trolling for the next Pavano/Byrd/Millwood/Jason Johnson to add “experience” and the ability to “eat innings” to “bolster” the rotation? (I know these pitchers all met with varying degrees of success*, but you know my point about the organizational trend to favor these guys over what may be perceived as “rushing” a young pitcher).
*Jason Johnson had none
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well he didn’t do anything to damage a season that was tanked by the end of April. So from that standpoint, I suppose he was fine. I guess I was just wondering aloud if our organizational philosophy of seemingly slowing pitchers’ progress with older veterans is going to change. Perhaps Manny Acta isn’t as obsessed with veteran journeymen as his predecessor?
Before taking Pro-Acta, please consult your doctor. Do not taunt Pro-Acta.
JJ’s year in Cleveland was my first on LGT and there were these gigantic battles over exactly how terrible he was. My take away was one I’ve never shaken, that average 5th starters are much worse than anyone realizes, to the point that Johnson was actually sort of a good one, which was what he was paid to be.
Fair enough – and I certainly don’t want to retread, here. Especially not about Jason Johnson. I guess I’m just hoping that if and when we don’t contend this year we can all say, “Well, I guess Carrasco wasn’t ready” rather than, “Why did we sign Brandon Backe?”
Before taking Pro-Acta, please consult your doctor. Do not taunt Pro-Acta.
I don’t think its worth carying to your grave my friend, it in fact may be true in some sense as Jay, yourself, and others may have argued, but pick your battles, jason johnson is defending you anywhere right now.
I didn’t think I would weigh in on this yet again, but it’s worth remembering the simple facts.
- Jason Johnson had a 5.96 ERA. That’s terrible, but I’m afraid to look up where it would rank among our 2009 starters.
- Jason Johnson had a 5.05 FIP, which he maintained for two other teams after we dumped him. Definitely not good, but most definitely serviceable.
- Jason Johnson was backed by an infield defense that was, by far, the worst in the game while he was here.
- Jason Johnson had a groundball rate of 59.5%, which is elite, up there in Westbrook/Carmona territory.
- So you can see why this just did not go well overall.
I also find something distasteful about using a bit player as a punching bag. People used to tear apart Todd Holladsworth, and my reaction was always, “Dude, he’s only Todd Hollandsworth. This is not his fault.” I feel the same about Jason Johnson.
I sincerely hope I’m not being accused of using Jason Johnson as a punching bag.
Before taking Pro-Acta, please consult your doctor. Do not taunt Pro-Acta.
No, we’re just reminiscing.
People hated Todd Hollandsworth and they hated Ramon Vazquez.
by afh4 on Oct 28, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, you know, it was kind of gratuitous.
I can’t even really explain why it bugs me (and evidently Andrew) so much, but I guess it just does.
My recollection is that most people saw the season slipping away early and thought that we had a better option in Sowers (at the time), so why not make a move to see if we can get the season on track?
(a) which we did
(b) the dubiousness of Sowers being better eventually proved out
(ç) doesn’t change the fact that Johnson was underestimated
(d) has nothing to do with whether signing him was a mistake
well, i guess (d) was what i was thinking when i (regrettably) brought up his name.
Joe Inglett! The Chris Magruder of 2006. Success during his initial 20 ABs created a hilarious and unfortunate obsession among the Brinda/cleveland.com/Triv set.
Before taking Pro-Acta, please consult your doctor. Do not taunt Pro-Acta.
i love how you imply that any of the experience, inning eatings, and bolstering in any and all of these cases, with the possible exception of johnson, was anything but a wild success and highly valuable acquisition. and that rushing a young pitcher is always a bad idea. average major leaguers are almost always average major leaguers.
if this team is not going to contend, as everyone seems to assume, then yes. I think it’s a waste of time and money – however little it is – to try and duplicate this year what we got with some of those guys in other years, when it was assumed we would contend.
You’re right, I didn’t help my argument much by bringing up guys like Pavano, Byrd and Millwood. Touche. I’m just saying I’d like to live or die with the kids this year.
Before taking Pro-Acta, please consult your doctor. Do not taunt Pro-Acta.
i agree. i don’t want to sign a veteran this year either, but in general i think it’s a good move. there’s even an argument for it next year to help regulate innings for young starters and the bullpen – even if we aren’t going to content.
Yes. It’s not stupid to plan on using 7 or 8 guys in the rotation, though. Who would have thought that Tomo Ohka would have had the 7th most innings of any Indians pitcher in 2009?
So when the smoke from all of the Kool-Aid clears, whatta we got? Two guys with plus stuff who need a little more seaoning, another soft-tossing lefty and a guy with a funny name. Lord, I hope there’s more down in the minors than this.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
by mauichuck on Oct 28, 2009 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
These aren’t our best pitching prospects, these are the guys whose 2009 numbers showed the biggest improvements on 2008. The Indians have a lot of viable arms.
Adding – I’d have these guys ranked as pitching prospects somewhere like this:
Rondon – 1
Gomez – 4
Judy – 9
Espino – 12
Pino – 15
Lofgren – 17
I also mistakenly left out Alexander Perez, who should be up here, and would probably be #5
So when the smoke from all of the Kool-Aid clears
Talk about mexing mitaphors.
Wait 'til next millennium!
I love the concept of smoking Kool-Aid.
by ken from alexandria on Oct 28, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
seems like snorting the dry kool-aid powder is the better way to go.
by MooneysRebellion on Oct 28, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec for keeping the Kool-Aid thing going.
The once and future
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Oct 29, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops, I thought it was Ockus. Must have just read it out of order.
The once and future
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Oct 29, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Two other guys that won’t make anyone’s top prospects list are Eric Berger and Zach Putnam. I mention them because they pulled off the fairly rare feat of not only being promoted to the AA level during their first full pro season, but having some success there to boot.
As a starter, Berger would have won the Carolina league era title if he had stayed long enuf, but as it was he was able to pretty much sustain his success (along with his K per inning strikeout rate) in the Eastern league, working thru the playoffs for the champion Aeros. Despite no plus pitch that stands out, he’s been able to put up good numbers, kind of a poor man’s David Huff.
Putnam was mostly a starter at Kinston, but was promoted mid-season to Akron specifically to see how he’d fare as a reliever (at the time when Cleveland was auditioning everyone shy of office secretaries for immediate bullpen help). He did pretty well in the new role, and will likely find himself back there next season as a power arm in the pen, being groomed for a setup or closer role.
Continued success for either of these two will likely earn them a promotion to AAA at some point next year, their second full year as pros, and put them at least on the edge of the radar, one step from Cleveland. They are also providing good early returns on the ’08 draft, which, with Chisenhall leading the way, seems to be moving thru the system quicker than previous ones.
I’ve got Putnam right around #10 on my Indians pitching list (in the same category as Scott Barnes and Josh Judy), and Berger is in the group that falls just behind them (Espino, Tomlin, Price, Pino). I like them both, though, and they definitely had good years. They don’t make this list basically because this was their first full season.
Also – I think Putnam is starting again in the AFL. I think Tony Lastoria mentioned something about switching him back to the rotation…have to look that up…
I don’t think that means much in the AFL – it seems whoever starts the game rarely goes thru the opposing lineup more than once.
But, if they want to give Putnam a shot at starting in Akron next year, I’m all for it – as with White – just because a guy CAN be a good reliever doesn’t mean he won’t be more valuable as a starter.
Here is the piece from Tony:
In his season ending interview with Farm Director Ross Atkins, it was made clear that in no way have the Indians settled on him as just being a reliever. The organization likes him as either a starter or reliever, and depending on their needs next season and beyond he will be put in a role that they feel can best supplement the major league team in the near future.
“I think it is up in the air,” said Putnam about being a starter or reliever. “The last time I talked to Ross he kind of said not to get too comfortable either way. Things could change next year depending on the needs at the big league level.”
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