Pedro and The Unit are locks.

Cliff’s post season winning percentage 100
Cazzi Culone .555 and for Indians fans, all his loses were huge!

Just because part of the range of possibilities is that Lee stays healthy and effective and Sabathia doesn’t. The opposite may be more likely, but this scenario is still in there somewhere, and it’s not tiny.

Here’s the problem with stats: it focuses on the average and what you need to identify is the 2 or 3 standard deviation from the norm guy – like Cliff Lee.

Here’s Cliff’s strengths: pin point control, above average stuff and outstanding control of his emotions. What Lard Ass does well is throw hard with a plus curve. Cliff’s skills age much better than Sabathia’s. Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens are the only guys I can think of that have pitched well into their late 30’s early 40’s with a similar makeup – and both of those guys were fitness fanatics. Something Sabathia clearly is not.

 But guys like Cliff – Maddox, Gaylord, Jim Palmer, Warren Spahn – can still pitch very well even after their fastball has lost 2-3 mph. Plus, Lee’s – like Palmer – got the best mechanics I’ve ever seen. There is no change in his delivery pitch to pitch, inning to inning or game to game. Sabathia, in my opinion, is all over the map with his – relatively – flawed delivery.

So that’s it. Cliff controls the game while the game, too often, controls Sabathia. Tubby’s mechanics are not as good and he relies – in comparison – too much on his stuff. He’ll be gone in 2-3 years – and I know he’s only 28 – whille Lee’ll be pitching well when he’s 40.

That’s my take. Let’s see if I’m right.