M's use stats to reveal ... Franklin Gutierrez
The Mariners were figuring out who to pinpoint as potential trade targets and Blengino ... had his eye on an outfielder he'd been monitoring since the prospect was in the Dodgers' system several years back. So, he researched some defensive numbers on Franklin Gutierrez, then a struggling young right fielder for the Indians, using traditional statistics like outfield chances, as well as some more advanced modern ones like Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Revised Zone Rating (RZR).
"We knew who the kid was," Zduriencik said. "But the numbers Tony showed us really opened our eyes."
These days, Gutierrez is regarded as possibly the best defensive outfielder in baseball.
Gutierrez is a prime example of the type of hidden gems the Mariners are hoping to uncover with their fledgling department of statistical analysis. The department is overseen by Blengino, and it has one full-time employee, four seasonal interns and two outside consultants.
over 2 years ago
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although it’s great that the M’s are shaking things up (and i really do like jack z), pretty much any LGT’er could have given them this same information. this is less about seattle jumping ahead, and more about them catching up to everybody else.
plus, i doubt ANY statistic could have predicted franky the RF’er would be the absolute revelation he’s been in CF. that was pure scouting and projection, i’d wager—looking at his physical tools, the routes he took to balls and how well he anticipated them, etc.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
What a load of sabermatic self-congratulatory clap trap. Any scout worth his frequent travel miles could see that Gutierrez could field. Sabermatrics my pink, fuzzy ass.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
my pink, fuzzy ass.
Who could’ve ever guessed that Slider was a regular poster?!
by ProgMetaller on Oct 4, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Back down on the knee-jerk reaction, Chuck. I don’t see this as self-congratulatory. I see this as a wide-eyed reporter mistaking a very commonplace statistical note — which is no more difficult or revolutionary than looking up a batting average — as some kind of a breakthrough.
As we’ve gone over more than once, defense is very, very hard to quantify – the holes in all of the those defensive stats are self evident. But ya gotta admit the whole tone of the argument is that somehow, someway, this new fangled statistical analysis is gonna revelutionize baseball.
This year’s Indians, run by what is proported to be one of the most stats savvy FOs in baseball is proof positive that this is hogwash.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
(a) I’m not disagreeing about the tone, I’m just saying, it’s the reporter generating that tone, not the staff. There was no press release touting this amazing analytical achievement.
(b) New-fangled statistical analysis has, in fact, already revolutionized baseball, and the proof may be that the A’s and Indians can’t win anymore.
© Defensive stats are, at this point, superior in measuring defense to what the idiot stats are at measuring offense. Those holes you cite are no worse than BAbip variation or failure to account for opportunities to earn RBI.
by Jay on Oct 6, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think his defensive prowess was ever a secret, whether it be from a traditional scouting angle or a sabermetric angle. The question was whether he’d be a decent hitter.
Now, find a good statistical defensive player that the scouts hate, and you’ve got something.
Yeah, I had long heard before he even had his first taste of the big leagues (even before I started actually knowing things about prospects), that his fielding was even further advanced than Sizemores, not even counting his arm. I wouldn’t say he was a hidden gem, more like a gem that didn’t seem to fit in our ring at the time.
Chugga-chugga chugga-chugga, Choo Choo!
For the “fun” of it … to make myself sad…
Sizemore-Gutz-Choo
Marte-Peralta-Droobs-Laporta
Catcher of Choice and Hafner
Captain of the SS [DO NOT TRADE] CHOO
Brantley-Sizemore-Choo
Marte-Droobs-Val-LaPorta
C-DH
It’s not like we were the victims of highway robbery here. I think we got as well as we gave, with the caveat that Gutz had a career year at the dish and we picked up a pitcher as well. The “could have been” scenario of this trade doesn’t “make [me] sad” at all.
Everybody should get ice cream every day.
That career year has been vastly overhyped, too. 761 OPS, what is the big deal here?
Looking at the rate stats, he was just a hair above average among starting AL CF — practically identical to Sizemore in by far his worst season.
Yes, he’s a nice player. Just like Valbuena. And yes, Gutierrez has been better so far, but Valbuena is at minimums salary for two years longer, under club control for two years longer, and he’s almost three years younger.
by Jay on Oct 5, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Mostly because Gutz was a favorite of mine. What makes me a little sad might make Valbuena Lovers ecstatic.
Captain of the SS [DO NOT TRADE] CHOO
I liked Gutierrez, but he really frustrated me. He was forever leaving us at the figurative third base.
I think he frustrated me so much at the plate that I began to hate him. I wish that hadn’t happened. Everytime I close my eyes, I still see those big hands in the white batting gloves, waving the bat in a menacing manner, standing in close for plate coverage, staring the pitcher down… ready to whiff terribly on yet another breaking ball.
Chugga-chugga chugga-chugga, Choo Choo!
I’ll give him credit, if it had worked he would have been touted as a magic man. And lets be honest, it didn’t make this season all that much worse. A right handed specialist out of that bullpen was like using an exacto knife in a butcher’s shop.
Chugga-chugga chugga-chugga, Choo Choo!
if it had worked he would have been touted as a magic man
Yes, just like putting Garko in the outfield. This is a horrible defense.
To me, and I may be alone in this thinking, I feel like this was a career year for him because he held it together for 629 PAs. He had better rate stats back in 2007, but he only got to the plate 300 times. I was more impressed that he was able to keep his level of play average/above average for the whole year than I was by the actual level of play itself. It was a career year in terms of duration, not performance, if that makes any sense.
Everybody should get ice cream every day.
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