Another 40-man opinion
Tony Lastoria makes his 40-man roster predictions prior to this Friday's deadline. Tony does a lot of wonderful minor league stuff but roster construction is not something I tend to agree with him on and this is no different. His prediction:
"Seven players are added: Jordan Brown, Jason Donald, Jeanmar Gomez, Chuck Lofgren, Matt McBride, Yohan Pino, and Nick Weglarz. If an eighth is rostered, it is Carlos Rivero, and if only six are rostered then Lofgren is not."
about 2 years ago
APV
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Out of the guys listed, I would agree with Brown, Donald, Gomez, Pino and Weglarz. No to Lofgren and McBride.
I also don’t think De La Cruz gets rostered because of the injury issues, he just seems too far away. Rivero should be rostered as well if leaving him off exposes him to Rule V.
i worry about De La Cruz because he’s a 6’5" lefty who struck out 19 guys in 12 innings to start last season in Kinston. He’d have been in Akron within a month if he hadn’t gotten hurt, and even if he’d been mediocre from there on out we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. I could see a team taking a shot on him.
I was thinking the same thing. Why wouldn’t teams like the Pirates, Nationals, Padres or Royals take a chance on him and stick him in the bullpen? I understand it might hurt his development if he doesn’t pitch enough in the majors, but given his age, why not use him as a lefty specialist and then at the end of the year send him down to AA/AAA to work with him from there.
My opinion is that you protect talent and not just the players that might be taken. Guys like Brown, Hodges and McBride could be drafted by some teams, but that won’t necessarily hurt us.
couldn’t one of those teams even stash him on the ML DL?
Finally convinced my dad that Jeter is immensely hatable.
that sounds like Mangini: “I have no use for this guy but Belichick would pick him up. He stays.”
Finally convinced my dad that Jeter is immensely hatable.
McBride is a crazy prediction. He’ll be 25 in May and has exactly 100 games in the high minors, 742 OPS, bad K/BB numbers. I guess he’d make an interesting flier pick, but Goleski hit a lot better than this and got sent back. And McBride certainly hasn’t proven anything at the catcher position.
If I’m picking a flier guy, I’m going with Lofgren.
Finally convinced my dad that Jeter is immensely hatable.
I would put the chances that Lofgren gets protected at 0. Lofgren hasn’t had a strikeout rate of 20% or a K:BB ratio better than 2 since 2006 in Kinston. This year he set a career low in terms of BB%, but at a still unimpressive 8.1%, to go along with a career low K-rate of 15.8%. He has bad control, no strike out pitch, gives up tons of hits and lots of homeruns.
Weglarz would make for a solid torso in Base Wars
by cleveland teamer on Nov 18, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I always rec Base Wars.
The once and future
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Nov 19, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
I count 33 on the roster of Westbrook and A. Reyes are off the 60 day DL. That includes Jose Veras, who I like, but who is also Jose Veras. So there’s seven spots. Give me Donald, Gomez, Weglarz, Pino, DLC, Rivero, and, if need be, Hodges.
I’m a no on McBride, Brown, and Lofgren. I want to be a no on Hodges, because I’m not sure what he is that Andy Marte isn’t, other than under control for more years. But if he’s not really a 3B, and not really a hitter, then he’s….? I just don’t see them leaving him off.
Does LaPorta’s injury make it more likely that they keep Brown, though? Sure, you have multiple options on Brown if you roster him, but talent like him is always freely available. It seems foolish to risk losing Rivero or KDLC to maintain an inferior player at a non-skill position.
Oh…and I’d designate Anthony Reyes for assignment if the Indians want to keep a roster spot open. If not, I’d rather take my chances on Lofgren, and that ain’t saying much, considering he’s unprotected on my list.
I’d say Donald, Gomez, Pino, Rivero and Weglarz are sure things. That leaves probably 2-3 slots open. I would put KDLC in one of them. And then I would choose the remaining one or two out of the following group; Brown, Edell, Herrmann, Rodriguez and Tomlin.
Any credence to the idea that the Indians could ADD in the Rule 5 instead of just worrying (usually unnecessarily) about possibly losing someone?
Generally the players that are available and that get selected are guys who project as no more than utility IF (we probably need one of those) and bullpen projects (keep ‘em coming). I’m not going to pretend to know anything about those Rule 5 eligible guys, but I’d be more interested in seeing if we could fill the role of Futility IF or try to catch lightning in a bottle with a bullpen arm in the Rule 5 before FA is considered.
by The DiaTriber on Nov 18, 2009 8:45 AM EST up reply actions
Why would we want to roster a Futility IF all year who may not be ready when we have Jason Donald already in the system who most likely IS ready?
Want out of Cleveland? Easy - mess with LeBron's entourage.
by woodsmeister on Nov 18, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
Because Donald (allegedly) isn’t going to be ready to start the season in MLB and because the system at the upper levels is bereft of utility IF. If they leave a spot open, I could see them taking a chance on somebody as being wrong doesn’t cost much.
by The DiaTriber on Nov 18, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
donald won’t be ready in april, but he might in may/june, then what do you do with the rule 5 guy you can’t option down?
Or send him back…I guess I don’t see that guy that HAS to be protected to get our number to 40 or see a lot of similar guys (4 corners guys) that shouldn’t preclude them from making a reach on a guy who could be a super-utility player.
If it doesn’t work out…whatever and I don’t think you’re blocking anyone that compelling to take that chance.
by The DiaTriber on Nov 18, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
exactly. sort of. why clog your rosrter at the UI position. I don’t really want a veteran either. Gimme mike rouse any day.
by Brick. on Nov 19, 2009 9:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
exactly. sort of. why clog you r roster at the UI position. I don’t really want a veteran either. Gimme mike rouse any day.
by Brick. on Nov 19, 2009 9:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think when we’re talking about UI guys we aren’t thinking of 29-year old journeymen. If we went that direction I would expect it to be a younger guy with more potential upside who we could at least temporarily stash as a utility guy and see what he looks like. There are a number of international signing guys who get signed as 16-17 year-olds and don’t develop sufficiently in their 5 or 6 years to earn a 40-man spot. If we took a middle infielder, I’d expect it to be a guy like that.
he seems to look at it more from the standpoint of “i could see why someone might take this guy so i will protect him”.
Brown, Weglarz, Donald locks. Gomez essential lock. thinks they should protect KLDC. mentions Carlton Smith, a name only seen in APV breakdowns until now. Lofgren and Pino mentioned.
then the big list of bubble players. i have never heard of Stiller.
i have never heard of Stiller.
Stiller is another in the cluster of relievers. Without knowing the details of how his “stuff” compares, I’d take any of the guys I’ve mentioned previously (Herrmann, Wright, et al.) over him. I suppose I could see another team that really values GBs taking a shot at Smith and trying to turn him back into a starter. We’ve seen the value of a guy who gets 60% GBs, even if his other peripherals aren’t great. Smith has some control issues, though.
I didn’t include any of them in my prediction. I left a spot open for one of them potentially, but if not exactly growing on trees, these guys are pretty common. Of course less frequently one of these guys turns into 2006-2008 Raffy Perez.
i think i’m fully in ‘protect KLDC mode’ even though i think it’s a year too soon to start his option clock.
i can’t believe i’m saying this, but i actually think i’d rather use that soft spot for mcbride. or maybe snag OUR matt whitney. i can’t see someone taking lofgren and him sticking.
i’ve been being (been being?) sarcastic about the goleski/whitney comments.
i think i’d be excited about a guy the indians feel is worth snagging. i just think most rule 5 guys are of the ’don’t quit your rocket scientist day job’ mold. in fact, to come full circle. i’d love to go after a KLDC type, which is why i think i want to protect KLDC all of the suddon.
i’d love to go after a KLDC type
Not surprisingly, I agree with this. If the Indians were internally thin to fill out 24th and 25th spots on the roster, I would want anyone who might turn into a regular contributor (like Casey Blake). The Indians have a lot of internal options to fill those roles, though, so if we made a selection, I’d rather it be for a guy with a 1:50 chance of success, but with a very high ceiling potential. It doesn’t matter what happens in 2010 anyway, right?
this, exactly. woods pointed out we’ve got donald, so why pick up a UI. we’ve got crowe, brown, hodges, blah blah. i want a lefty hurler who might bomb out, but might be a “Johan Santana Type Draftee” JSTD
Aneury Rodriguez might be a guy to look at out of the Rays system.
by FallsTribeFan on Nov 20, 2009 8:49 AM EST up reply actions
Per Lastoria over the last 12 hours, McBride and Steven Wright have not been restored, and Jordan Brown has.
Steel Nick
Makes sense to me. The case for rostering McBride is borderline laughable. Yes, he just led the offense-heavy AFL in hitting. But he is about to be a 25-year old 1B/OF who just saw his first AA action in which he managed to put up a .301 OBP. There has been some discussion of moving him back to catcher, but that clearly is not a long-term reality. The last time he was a full-time catcher was 2007 in Lake County, a season in which he allowed 88 stolen bases (against 15 caught stealing), 46 wild pitches, 16 passed balls, and 9 errors. And that was before he had shoulder surgery on his throwing arm.
by APV on Nov 20, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
INF/OF Jordan Brown, OF Nick Weglarz, INF Jason Donald, RHP Jeanmar Gomez, LHP Kelvin De La Cruz, 3B Wes Hodges and SS Carlos Rivero have been added to the Indians’ 40-man roster, which is now filled.
Steel Nick
Coulda grabbed the oh-so-coveted backup middle INF in the Rule 5, but I’m not sure you’re going to get anything better than Josh Rodriguez, who wasn’t rostered (not that he should have been).
No Pino? Hrm…Not that he’s anything special, but wouldn’t they want him as a depth option over the prospect of what Anthony Reyes will contribute in 2011?
and also this. not sure why we acquire him if they don’t plan to roster him. i guess no biggie if someone wants to take a guy like that. seems like someone who might not be worth or able to stay on a 25-man all year. for us, obviously that wouldn’t be a problem. come to think of it, i’m glad we didn’t add him.
Wait? We hadn’t already rostered Pino? That strikes me as ridiculous. He was excellent in Columbus.
This is something I could get mad about.
only thing i can figure is they’ve looked and figured he’s not likely to get drafted – like brown last year…
My only guess is this: Reyes will accrue another year of service time while on the 60 day DL in 2010. He’s arbitration eligible for the first time in 2010, but it won’t be pretty after the line he posted last year in limited time. And then his 2011 salary will be equally depressed based on his non-existent 2010 numbers. His only potential big earning year is 2012, and that’s if he’s decent in 2011.
Upside: two-years of starting rotation material, and only one year of salary above $1M if things go right.
Downside: no guarantee he does anything in 2011. And even if it works out, he has two years of potential service left, while Pino has six. Not to mention the opportunity cost of not seeing what somebody like Pino can do in 2010.
Maybe neither belongs in a Major League rotation. It’s almost certainly not a big deal. Can Pino really last in another team’s bullpen/rotation all year? But why not error on the side of caution…
I just don’t see what there’s not to like about 6 cost controlled years of Pino. I get that he’s never done it at the ML level but his minor league track record is pretty impressive.
Anthony Reyes and Jeremy Sowers have impressive minor league track records, too—maybe even more than Pino. But the two former have shown their impressive track records don’t translate (so far) at the major league level, while Pino is still an unknown. I’m with you though—why not explore the unknown with Pino?
but do both these versions of the beast both fall in the ’won’t get taken’ category?
i mean, they’ve got to think that, right? otherwise do they just not care if they lose him? it seems like it came down to reyes v. pino and hodges v. pino. is it just that he lost out in both those choices or did they simply think he was safe enough to risk dangling?
Whiff!
Hey guys. Boy did I really whiffed on my three picks in addition to the four verified guys. Missed on all three (Lofgren, McBride, Pino). They were not my preference, but it was the direction I felt they were going after talking extensively with people the past few weeks.
I had Hodges rostered until the last second where a conversation with the front office, while never told who the remaining three rostered players would be, left me feeling McBride would certainly be rostered. Never had McBride on until that conversation last week. Took Hodges off and added McBride….and it looks like it probably came down to those two for the final spot.
De La I can see….but the feeling I was getting was that they didn’t want to roster him and have him blow through all his option years before he is big league ready, which is likely to be what happens now. I got the sense in my talks that the final three guys would be more about guys who could help now (Pino, Lofgren) rather than just pure best talent (De La, Rivero). Boy did I miss the vibe on that one!
Anyway, let the over-reaction begin on all the players we will lose in Rule 5!;-) I am not so sure we lose anyone or not, but could see 1-2 going.
thanks for stopping by.
it does stink to start KLDC’s option clock now, but he seemed like an upside lefty someone could stash in a pen all year.
i think i like hodges over mcbride for the reasons APV mentions up above.
i like keeping rivero because of his postion.
the thing i keep going back to with lofgren and pino is with regards to sticking in the majors and long term value. right now, they’re depth starters at best. eventually, they’re back end starters, at best, right? so what does a drafting team do with them for 2010? can they hang on as a #5 and if not, do they profile as a useful bullpen piece? i am starting to lean to where even if those guys do get taken, they probably come back (if we want them back).
Good points
THe thing with De La is it is very over-stated how a team can DL a guy all year just to stash them on their roster. It could happen, but by stashing him on the roster all year he never pitches as he can’t go on any rehab assignments or anything really…and after missing all of 2009, the guy basically loses two full years of development all because someone tries to circumvent the Rule 5 rules? Not to mention if he is 60-day DLed in 2010 he has to be on the 25-man to start the 2011 season too. At some point, the guy has to be active for 90 days or whatever. He has upside yeah, but also lacks any real control and command and needs a lot of innings in the minors.
I’ve been kicking this around, and I believe the Indians have determined that by rostering Kelvin now, they’re going to get four option years out of him if they need them. He’s only had one “full season” as the fourth-option rule defines it, and the rule says that you get a fourth option year as long as you’ve had fewer than five full seasons. Obviously, if he’s only had one so far, then he can’t have more than four after the next three seasons.
Thus, if needed, the Indians will be awarded a fourth option year for Kelvin for the 2013 season. That pushes his “out of options moment” to spring 2014, at which point he’ll be 26. In this context, starting the option clock doesn’t really look like an issue, and nobody wants to lose a guy with stuff like Kelvin’s.
i commented over at tony’s site that you thought this might be the case, and at first glance, he seems to think you’re right. if so, it’s sorta like they’re not optioning him till next year.
Tony, love your work, follow you on Twitter, etc etc. But that doesn’t excuse you to use the subject line.
Keep up the good work.
Steel Nick
Anyway, let the over-reaction begin on all the players we will lose in Rule 5!;-) I am not so sure we lose anyone or not, but could see 1-2 going.
Second on the thanks for stopping by. With De La, it seems the organization still values his ceiling as something they can’t risk losing. 12 months from now that could very well be different. I’d be interested in what thoughts you have on Pino and how the organization views him.
I like a lot of you thought Pino was a given to be rostered. They picked him up in a trade for Pavano, and he had a great season last year. Doesn’t throw hard, but is versatile, durable, and has good command. Could be a depth starter or reliever. But, obviously the focus was put on protecting their top talents as it was more about talent and upside than big league ready guys and depth. Really, aside from McBride, no one else let unprotected projects to be higher than their 25-30th ranked prospect.
That’s my take as well, especially after what seems like some flops amongst our starting pitchers that were thought to have lesser “stuff.” The organization might be shifting towards a bit more emphasis on the potential than the numbers in the minors. That said, I still thought Pino would get rostered over Hodges because to me the clear, weakness on the team last year was pitching.
Great to have you chiming in here, Tony — hope you make a habit of it.
The pattern on Pino suggests to me that there’s less here than meets the eye. We were surprised to have acquired him, given his numbers and what we expected to get for Pavano. Now we’re surprised that he’s not protected. What can explain both events? Scouts simply don’t think he’s likely to be a big-leaguer, despite what the numbers say.
Scouts simply don’t think he’s likely to be a big-leaguer, despite what the numbers say.
But, our scouts suck still, right?
by NickFantana on Nov 20, 2009 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
I am now telling the computer that if it will tell me the correct answer, I will gladly share with it the grand prize. He says, “What would a computer do with a lifetime supply of chocolate?” I am now telling the computer exactly what he can do with a lifetime supply of chocolate!
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Nov 22, 2009 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I don’t follow you here. I know with some pay software, you have to deactivate the serial # before you can sell it.
No, the fact that my hardware and operating system and customer support don’t suck do that.
“Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.”
There is no increased value of a product with increased support and stability when I can fix anything that goes wrong on my machine for little or no cost anyway.
Sorry, I hate Macs more than I hate the Yankees.
Chugga-chugga chugga-chugga, Choo Choo!
I dunno, Jay, for the last 3 years my PC has “just worked”. And my original PC built 7 years ago is still “just working”.
Chugga-chugga chugga-chugga, Choo Choo!
If you’re next going to tell me you haven’t re-installed Windows multiple times on those machines, then I’ll know you’re lying. I ran a tech support operation for several years. Although XP was okay.
Older PC’s I had this issue. My current Dell I have had for about 5 years and have never once had a problem or had to reinstall anything.
Yeah, but at some point you have to actually plug it in and turn it on.
by Jay on Nov 25, 2009 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’ve reinstalled.. 4 times that I can remember, 2 of which were for hard drive expansion. Both machines run XP Pro and have been used as everyday machines and for non-linear editing.
Chugga-chugga chugga-chugga, Choo Choo!
And I have no reason to lie, I won’t convince you to hate Macs and you won’t convince me to love them.
Chugga-chugga chugga-chugga, Choo Choo!
This again?
Pick up a DELL Inspiron laptop. How does it feel in your hand? Is it remarkably lightweight, but does it still offer heft? Or does it feel horribly cheap?
Now, pick up MacBook Pro and tell me what that feels like. There’s a reason people pay more for certain things.
Wait 'til next millennium!
I have a 4-year old Inspirion, but one of the little ones (m720). It is as sturdy a computer as I’ve ever owned and has made it across continents and oceans without giving me problems. I previously had one of the big Inspirons and yes, it was designed to fail after working great for 2-3 years.
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