Rule 5 Draft Concluded: Indians add Ambriz
by afh4 on Dec 10, 2009 10:25 AM EST
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The Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft is over and the Indians both lost and acquired a player. On the way out is Chuck Lofgren, a lefty without great velocity who has struggled mightily since a breakout season in 2006. His 2007 season was marred by personal tragedy and at the time there was speculation that he would return to form as he was able to leave that tragedy behind. It's become increasingly clear, however, that whatever magic Lofgren was using in Kinston wasn't playing at higher levels; his K/9 fell to a career low 5.9 in 2009 while his BB/9 was over 3 and, well, that's about all you need to know. Lofgren's chances of success in the major leagues are essentially limited to being a LOOGY: he has generally held lefties down in his career but not in any stunning way and, frankly, I think you'll see Lofgren back in the system this season.
The Indians' chose Hector Ambriz from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ambriz is a 25 year old righty who BP described thusly in its 2008 player comment:
Your basic command-and-control right-hander spat out by innumerable college programs, Ambriz is a UCLA product the Snakes snagged in the fifth round of the 2006 draft who mixes his off-speed stuff well and spots his fastball. Challenged to work deeper in games in the second half of his full-season debut, he not only averaged an inning more per start, but his strikeout rate improved from 7.5 per nine to 8.2, and he generated more grounders. High-pick, big-program pitchers are supposed to be able to handle High-A competition, but if he can pick up more steam while getting up to Double-A, he'll sneak onto people's prospect radars.
After that comment was written, Ambriz struggled in AA (4.94 ERA) and fell off anyone's radar. However, in 2009 Ambriz blew AA away in 5 starts with a 32:6 K:BB rate over 29.0 IP with only 7 runs surrendered. That works out to a 2.17 ERA and a promotion to AAA where his walks rose, his K's fell and his performance suffered. However, Ambriz finished the year strong (check out those September splits) and on the year he posted a 3.85 FIP (4.94 actual), sort of impressive for a guy who's not a strikeout pitcher. He does get some groundballs but not enough for anyone who follows the Indians to get excited.
Ambriz is surely going to compete for a spot in the Indians' pen and, with his lack of explosive stuff, I guess his upside is a rich man's Jensen Lewis. I'm not sure what the Indians are going for here but I guess we can hope the club has found some good scouts and listened to them. For what it's worth, AZSnakePit thought his risk of claim was low but, then again, that's what we said about Lofgren. I doubt Ambriz wins a spot out of ST but I'll withhold judgment until Mark Shapiro finds a second to pull the wool over my eyes.
This of course means that the Indians kept Yohan Pino, Matt McBride, Carlton Smith, and anyone else you were worried about.
UPDATE: Ambriz kept a blog for MLB while he was in the AFL last year. It's sparse but oddly compelling.
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Agreed. And nothing wrong with a little “chunky.”
by dgcambridge on Dec 10, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
That’s right. A keg is always a hell of a lot more fun than a 6pack!
by MooneysRebellion on Dec 10, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Glad we didn’t lose Pino, Wright, Herrmann or any of our other guys. Lofgren has a compelling story, but he honestly hasn’t been a good pitcher in more than 2 years.
I was looking at the numbers too, and it seems he needs time adjusting to each level (at least at AA he did). I can only assume that he needed the adjustment time at AAA as well, and hasn’t had it?
by MooneysRebellion on Dec 10, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
2+ years to adjust to AA. I don’t know if that is adjusting or simply reaching a point where you are much more experienced than the people you are trying to get out.
Yer right…didn’t look close enough.
by MooneysRebellion on Dec 10, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
I’m just saying, isn’t “adjusting” a function of experience?
Let’s assume by “good” you’re talking about some measure raw talent, basically stuff and command. Some guys may “adjust” less quickly even though they’re just as “good.”
Yes, but the difference is pitching at the AA-level there is a continual turnover of players as guys get promoted to AAA, such that eventually you are at a competitive advantage based on your experience relative to that of your competition. There is no promotion beyond the majors, so Lofgren couldn’t “adjust” in this sense simply by sticking around.
didn’t he also pitch in a pitcher friendly environment?
That babip is ridiculously high. If you look at his career, it’s normallt around .300. He seems to be a bit hittable (about a hit per inning), but his 09 AAA numbers are really out of line with the rest of stats. If he can keep the homeruns down and the BAA in general, he could be a very solid reliever.
Dbacks AAA park is one of the most hitter friendly in all of minor league baseball, at least from 2006-2008.
You see it in Chase Field, the AFL, and in AZ spring training too — AZ batting stats are always high and pitching stats are inflated.
The park in Reno was new in 2009. But it’s at 4500 feet, I doubt it’s a pitchers park. Lots of big numbers for the hitter there last year.
by dgcambridge on Dec 10, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
For
I forgot they moved! I was just reading something on Ruben Gotay (he spent 2009 in Reno and received a lot of attention as a minor league free agent for his big offensive season). The article was speaking to the offensive haven of his home ballpark. Can’t remember where I read it now, though…
Both the Southern League and the Pacific Coast League are known for their hitter-friendly fields, and that’s what Ambriz has faced on his rise up the ladder, so one must take that into account when looking into his stats.
Certainly, he’s needed time to adjust to each league, but has adapted up through AA – whether that’s due to eventual understanding of the league and making adjustments or whether he’s just more advanced due to age over league competition, that remains to be seen.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Did we discuss elsewhere that Castro is reporting the two possible PTBNL in the Shoppach deal are Mitch Talbot and Joseph Cruz.
Talbot’s a roster guy. Cruz is not.
did the rays have any action in the rule 5 (i know, i should just look) that might affect us – players coming or going?
I don’t buy this whole argument.
The question is whether the guy can pitch? These lefties don’t need to be aces, but they can be major league pitchers.
Sowers has been no good because he lacks secondary stuff, not because he doesn’t throw hard.
Laffey struggled last year because he walked too many batters.
Huff’s fastball per FG averged 90.1mph. Cliff Lee, in his Cy Young 2008, averaged 90.5. Cliff’s prior years: 89, 89, 89.3.
It’s all about secondary stuff.
Look at Doug Davis. Yes, he’s in the NL. But the guy throws 85mph with his four seamer. He has a useful changeup, curveball, and cutter. And he walks way too many people. But he has secondary stuff. A rotation full of Doug Davis clones won’t give you any aces, but it will make you competitive.
Well, I’m happy to have Lofgren anyway, at least for now. I love the idea of using the Rule 5 to audition potential LOOGYs. Was Lofgren’s stuff this marginal a couple years ago, when he was in the BA top 100?
It was a great selection of awesome.
I don’t know that any of us know Lofgren’s stuff is “this marginal”; we know he was really young and good and now he’s become old and not good. When he was young and bad, we were told he had some plus off-speed pitches and now that he’s old we haven’t been told anything, so we just assume his stuff is marginal. Otherwise, why is he so bad?
In some ways it’s more relevant. Unlike hitters, who often add power through upper-body development in their mid-20s, pitchers rarely develop better stuff beyond age 23, so there’s a supposition that at 23, a pitcher is more or less as good as he’s going to be.
…stuff-wise, sure. But there’s always a Jorge de la Rosa emerging from the wilderness to give credence to the old saw about lefties taking longer to figure out how to actually pitch.
It was a great selection of awesome.
I’m aware; it was with the Brewers. I was referring to:
there’s a supposition that at 23, a pitcher is more or less as good as he’s going to be.A pitcher’s stuff no longer improving isn’t the same thing as a pitcher being more or less as good as he’s going to be.
It was a great selection of awesome.
Though outliers, what about the Doug Jones & Mike Scott examples? Pitchers, it would seem to me, can always be one new pitch or mental breakthrough from being a completely different commodity.
Another interesting thing regarding Lofgren’s development – his velocity seemed to fluctuate quite a bit; if I recall correctly, when he first entered the system, he was hitting the low-90s, even touching 95 on occasion (why he was often paired with Adam Miller in prospect rankings as being a power pitcher several years ago), but over the last few years, he’s been more in the upper-80s, hitting an occasional 92-93, becoming more of a guy with offspeed stuff and a fastball that needed to be spotted to have success.
Lofgren has had bouts where he has struggled with command, but as his fastball velocity has seemingly fallen, he’s had to be more precise with his location, leading to mixed results, sometimes having good stretches, sometimes having bad stretches.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Dec 10, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry, have to burst IF’s bubble here-this is a fantasy. His calling card when he was a good prospect was control (3.5 BB/9 and a 2.31 K/BB as a 21 in A+ in 2006), then exhibited no control at all in 2007 and 2008, then got better again this year, posting a career low bb/9.
There’s no linear relationship here with regards to the reputation of his stuff. What has probably happened is that his stuff saw its reputation peak in 2006, along with his prospect status not coincidentally, and then as he struggled people started to undersell it (or be more realistic, perhaps).
I don’t think he’s seen any big change in his raw stuff I just think, like most prospects, there are wildly varying reports.
Yeah, that 95 mph figure has always been used with Lofgren, and I could never figure out why. He must have hit that one time on one gun, and its followed him around. I’ve listened to Lake County and Kinston radio on occasion when he was coming up, and as far as I can tell, he was never a flame thrower. In other words, his “stuff” had remained pretty much the same.
What has changed is his control. In A-ball, he threw strikes, and was able to do it w/o giving up many hits. He really hasn’t done that since, except for a stretch last year at AA before he was promoted. I finally was able to watch games at AAA last year – he works very quickly, and tends to speed up when he gets in trouble rather than slow down and focus.
I saw Lofgren once last year, when he was with Akron. His fastball sat at 83 all afternoon. Once or twice he touched 87. (Somehow, he kept getting outs. I think he allowed only 1 or 2 hits through 6 innings.)
by ken from alexandria on Dec 11, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
One note regarding Ambriz:
Lastoria reports that his fastball sits 91-93, topping at 95, so I’d hardly call him without stuff velocity-wise. Lastoria also reports that he has a very good splitter as his out pitch, so I’d hardly call him a guy without explosive stuff – he did average between 7-9 K/9 IP, which isn’t bad for a guy who was a starter, certainly better strikeout potential than a sinkerballer like Jake Westbrook (only averaged 4.5-6.5 K/9 IP), so Ambriz is not without some strikeout ability, and as mentioned, could be above-average to solid with that ability coming out of the bullpen. Overall, I think it was worth the pick, since his arm seems to have some velocity and he has an out pitch according to Lastoria.
One additional thought: Could he possibly be in the battle for the 5th starter spot instead, in addition to Sowers, Lewis, Carrasco, etc.? Just a thought.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
In other news, Lastoria thinks everyone in the Indians’ system has “plus stuff” or “great contact ability.”
Maybe he is a little optimistic, but that scouting report seems to be in line with the other ones we’ve seen so far. To me it looks like Ambriz has 2 pitches, which could play up in the bullpen, but would leave him very vulnerable as a starter.
I can be a real jerk about this kind of thing but the problem is that many, many prospect evaluators use terms like “out pitch” with no context. Does he have an out pitch for the majors or one for AA? A lot of reports talk about guys having a “very good _______” (right here you can read about Matt Meyer, a guy who was taken in the AAA rule 5 having a ‘very good power slide’ and ‘very good movement on his pitches’. Well, hell, let’s make him the 8th inning guy!) and it might look that way in A+, whatever, or on a given day, but very few of these guys have a ‘very good’ anything or even an ‘out pitch’ because if they did, we’d already know who they were.
Sure I want Ambriz to succeed but I have trouble looking at his numbers and thinking anything besides “Whatever.”
I agree with you for the most part and I too don’t expect much from Ambriz, but there is some reason for optimism. He might not be as useless as most rule 5 draftees are. With the amount of arms we have close to the majors, I don’t think Shap & co would select Ambriz if they didn’t think he has a chance to provide some decent value.
How many hot dogs does he have to sell in Surprise on his non-pitching days for us to recoup our investment?
Those things aren’t cheap – so not as many as you might think. He’d do well for himself to get a job as a beer vendor, though.
Jordan Brown has taken the player beer-vendor spot. Shapiro refused to pay for his bus ticket to Surprise-a total slap in the face and the ultimate disrespect.
/nosco
I actually thought this said “beet vendor” for some reason. But beer is probably more lucrative.
by Logodaedalus on Dec 12, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe they have those in the KHL.
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Dec 12, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Goldstein calls it a ‘curious’ selection and puts his odds to stick at 18:1. Puts Lofgren at 8:1.
My linker isn’t working so, the pay content is:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9846
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