Create your own 2010 BA Top Ten list (then sign Grady to an extension)
by fleerdon on Dec 10, 2009 11:01 PM EST
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PrintI was looking up the publication date of the Indians' Top Ten and Best Tools lists on Baseball America earlier this week (January 6th, if you care) when it occurred to me: Do we really need BA for this anymore? Not "we" as in, "all of BA's potential readers"; "we" as in, Indians fans who followed the last two seasons closely (and God help us for it).
I mean, what does that article really consist of, anyway? There's that run-down of the organization's previous season. Does anybody really want to read a run-down of 2009? If you do, allow me to distill it, right now, to its essential words and phrases: "...continued disappointment...scatter-shot approach to starting rotation...commitment to Kerry Wood?...bit once again by the injury bug...payroll directives from ownership...blockbuster trades...questions about value of returns...depth, if not necessarily star power...Brad Grant." And there's five minutes of your life back.
What else do we have to look forward to? The Top Ten list? Well, look, it's not going to mean anything. We have a blindingly obvious number one prospect. You could defensibly put the next seven guys in any order, really. And as for numbers eight, nine, and ten -- well, we've got at least six of them. Take your pick.
That leaves you with two entertaining, if not all that useful, items: the Best Tools list and the Projected 2013 lineup. I respect the BA analysts and everything, but I suspect they're mainly working off word of mouth and conjecture. If those are your sources, then wouldn't it be better to get some more heads involved?
Knowing that, why wait for BA to bore and misinform us? Why not bore and misinform ourselves? I'm proposing the Pre-Emptive Let's Go Tribe BA-esque Top Ten Prospects 2010 Article Thingy (Which Includes Neither An Article Nor A Top Ten List). I'll start the festivities. Submit your own candidates, and maybe, by consensus, we'll be able to draw some of our own conclusions about the state of the organization.
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Michael Brantley. You could, happily, make a case for Carlos Santana.
Best Power Hitter Now that LaPorta's no longer eligible? I want to say Nick Weglarz, but I think I have to say Carlos Santana. I'd still give Weglarz the edge in the long-run.
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Leaning Weglarz here. He went through some stretches in which he couldn't hit a lick and STILL put up a ridiculous OBP. (You could, happily, make a case for Carlos Santana.)
Fastest Baserunner If Delvi Cid is actually faster than Michael Brantley, I would like to see Delvi Cid.
Best Athlete Can anybody make a case for Not Mike Brantley?
Best Fastball K/9, 11.3; H/9, 6.8; HR/9, 0.3; answer, Jason Knapp.
Best Curveball No clue. It was Kelvin de la Cruz last year. I know scouts are iffy on Carlos Carrasco's curveball these days.
Best Slider Nick Hagadone, I'd guess. Does one of our relievers have a great slider? Graham? Price?
Best Changeup Pretty confident it's Carlos Carrasco. Sucker looks pretty wicked.
Best Control I was tempted to go with Scott Barnes, but that might've just been my "junkballing lefty=control" reflex kicking in. I think the right answer is Hector Rondon.
Best Defensive Catcher If Wyatt Toregas is too old for this list, then I don't have a clue. The more important question might be, given that we've got three AAA or better catchers, two of whom can hit ... does it matter?
Best Defensive Infielder Last year, it went to Mark Thompson, a 24-year-old player in A-ball. With our kind-of-sudden glut of bat-first middle infielders at the upper levels, there doesn't seem to be much room for a one-dimensional defensive infielder.
Best Infield Arm It was Carlos Rivero last year, and I've got nothing to refute that choice with. Lonnie Chisenhall used to close for his JuCo team, though. That's kind of cool.
Best Defensive Outfielder Again, I guess I've just really got to see this Delvi guy. The better question, besides Cid, is there really ANYBODY in this system anymore who's a standout defensive outfielder? Jordan Henry, maybe?
Best Outfield Arm Your 2009 winner was Matt Brown. Previous winners include Brad Snyder and Ryan Goleski. Lots of luck, Matt.
PROJECTED 2013 LINEUP Last year's BA 2012 lineup had Peralta at second base, so let's everybody make some crazy assumptions here.
Catcher Lou Marson, to validate the Lee trade to Dave Cameron. Just kidding.
First Base Gosh, I hope it's Matt LaPorta.
Second Base Jason Donald. I don't want to alarm anybody, but he's good. I've got a feeling that one of Donald and Luis Valbuena is going to be a 4 or 5 game per week super-utility guy. I should mention, I absolutely love Luis Valbuena.
Third Base Lonnie Chisenhall. I just looked hard for a reason to say Carlos Rivero, and I couldn't find it. It'll be fun to see those two, who are about 6 months apart in age, play side by side in Akron next year. I want there to be a place for Rivero on this team; I just can't figure out what it would be. But then, if you bet against the current crop of Tribe infielders, history would be on your side.
Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. I'll keep saying it: franchise player.
Left Field It's starting to look silly to bet against Michael Brantley, perplexing though his skill set may be.
Center Field Jordan Henry. I really dig that 22:1 SB:CS ratio, especially since he did it in 67 games. He's on my 2010 watch list. Also! Grady Sizemore is not signing an extension.
Right Field Shin-Soo Choo, if there's any justice in the universe.
Designated Hitter WEGLARZ! I don't see us picking up the club option on Hafner. Call me crazy.
Rotation Here goes nothin': Justerson, Huff, Carrasco (side note: why does everybody get so lathered up over Carrasco's problem being his attitude? You mean the stuff is good, and he just needs to pep it up a bit? Sweet Jesus! That's awesome! It's like people would rather he needed to add 4 MPH to his fastball), Rondon, Barnes
Closer Connor Graham. Dude went to my high school!
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Fun.
Best Hitter for Average Brantley.
Best Power Hitter: Santana
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: It’s Big Daddy Wegz.
Fastest Baserunner: Brantley
Best Athlete: Athlete’s a weird word. Brantley would probably be the best at another sport except for golf, which would be Santana. And couldn’t athlete be the highest ceiling in a given sport? In that case, again, Santana. What I’m saying is that if Santana fulfills his highest expectations and Brantley has a middling career (Tim Raines extremely light), wouldn’t everyone say Santana was the better athlete? Catching, hitting 30 HRs, throwing out baserunners?
Best Fastball: Adam Miller. Kidding. I guess it’s Knapp.
Best Curveball: How does Josh Judy get all those guys out? I’m saying Josh Judy. Or Nick Hagadone.
Best Slider: Same answer as above.
Best Changeup: Maybe Josh Tomlin? Naw, it’s Carrasco.
Best Control: You know who has remarkable control? Josh Tomlin. He’s walked just 1.7 per 9 in his 463 career innings.
Best Defensive Catcher: Matt McBride. /indiansfan. Naw, it’s Richard Martinez. Career caught stealing of 43%. He’s got a shot at Henry Blanco’s career.
Best Defensive Infielder: Cord Phelps is supposed to be good but I think it’s probably Niuman Romero. He can play all 4 positions well enough to get a call-up while OPSing .598.
Best Infield Arm: I don’t know. Who cares? What does that even mean?
Best Defensive Outfielder: George Lombard.
Best Outfield Arm: Not Tim Fedroff, right?
PROJECTED 2013 LINEUP
Catcher: Santana
First Base: Beau Mills
Second Base: Rickey Gutierrez
Third Base: This is the one I want badly: Chiz.
Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera.
Left Field: LaPorta
Center Field: Michael Brantley
Right Field: Choo
Designated Hitter: Weglarz.
Rotation: Hagadone, Carrasco, Rondon, Graham and Sowers after he’s a Spring Training NRI.
Closer: Knapp
by afh4 on Dec 11, 2009 12:32 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Good catches on R. Martinez and Tomlin.
This does bring up some confusing issues with the BA format. In the age of slurves, why not just “Best Breaking Ball”? Also, why distinguish between the best defenders and the best defensive arms — if you can’t get to the ball, who cares how well you can throw it?
And does anybody think Weglarz has a future as a true position player?
by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
The problem with Martinez is that in 4 seasons he has played a total of only 161 games, 118 at catcher.
Which brings me to another complaint about these articles: Lack of context. What difference does it make that Matt Brown’s got a great arm? I wish him the best, but he’s a 24-year-old who has yet to crack Kinston.
by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, me too.
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Michael Brantley (Runner-up, Jordan Brown)
Best Power Hitter Carlos Santana (Runner-up, Weglarz)
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Jordan Henry (Runner-up, Carlos Santana)
Fastest Baserunner Jose Constanza (Runner-up, Donnie Webb)
Best Athlete Michael Brantley (Runner-up, Carlos Santana)
I have no idea on these best pitches…
Best Control Josh Tomlin (runner-up, Hector Rondon)
Best Defensive Catcher Wyatt Toregas
Best Defensive Infielder Can I say no one?
Best Infield Arm ?
Best Defensive Outfielder Jose Constanza
Best Outfield Arm ?
PROJECTED 2013 LINEUP
Catcher Santana
First Base Mills
Second Base Valbuena
Third Base Chisenhall
Shortstop Cabrera
Left Field LaPorta
Center Field Brantley
Right Field Choo
Designated Hitter Weglarz
Rotation Too many names…in no particular order – Carmona, Rondon, Huff, Knapp, Hagadone, Gomez, Carrasco, Masterson, House, Price, Perez, Barnes…
Closer Todd
Two votes for Mills making it, and two votes for Brantley succeeding Grady in center.
You also have have faith in Carmona. Intriguing.
by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
It’s not so much faith as desperation. And the recognition that we hold club options for him for 2013 and 2014, which should he ever get it together would make him attractive to us and as a trade chip. That is of course many many steps away from the present. Brantley in center is a defensive issue. The outfield I outline is, as of now, not a good one defensively.
So what I’ve learned from this thread is that there’s absolutely no reason for me to look forward to still having Sizemore in 2013? I know we’ve got some exciting kids on the way up, but that makes me preemptively sad.
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
I think if you’re a betting man, you have to say he’s gone in 2013. We could extend him in a year, and then that changes everything. Otherwise, if we’re re-loading mid-2012 or possibly even mid-2011, then he’s gone.
As with Sabathia, we need him to sign a club-friendly deal, and if he’s willing to do that, there’s no reason he’d wait until his walk-year to get it done.
Which to me makes it a fun year to think about, at least academically. Asdrubal will be essentially the last vestige of the 2007 pennant run.
by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Don’t feel too bad. What have they done for us lately?
by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
Not to take this discussion further off track, but do you have a best guess as to when you think the best time would be to work on an extension? Furthermore, do you think we should extend him?
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Dec 11, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
I think the 2013 roster is pretty explicitly the track of this discussion, unless you want some more Matt Brown analysis.
This isn’t a well-formed thought, but I feel as though the only reason I sit down with the Indians if I’m Grady is insurance against injury. I see no way this club can offer Grady a dollar amount that so much as distracts him from free agency, if maxing out his value is his goal.
by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Yes to both. I don’t agree with Chuck’s contention that we should never risk a long-term deal with a guy facing free agency.
I will admit that money now appears to be more scarce than it appeared a few years ago, when we faced the CC-Jake-Pronk dilemma. You will recall that the club spoke cautiously of the possibility of extending all three, which seemed unlikely. Of course we did extend two out of three, and of course the ROI on those extensions has been deep in the negative.
Two things to keep in mind, though. First, nobody said these things didn’t come with risk. Of course we actually said the opposite, that they are inherently risky deals, and the less risky ones are still very risky. So the fact a free agent deal goes bad doesn’t mean you write off all free agent deals. Second, you don’t necessarily eliminate them as much as you tighten the criteria for them.
With that in mind, Grady presents as an almost ideal candidate for an extension. He’ll be rather young for a free agent; at the end of a hypothetical five-year extension through the 2017 season, he will be only a few weeks past his 35th birthday. He still has an outside at a Hall of Fame career, i.e., a career that would justify a statue alongside Feller. This makes him akin to Thome in a way that Hafner wasn’t; Hafner would have needed a full-on Edgar Martinez career to justify that kind of treatment. He’s also a great all-around athlete, which correlates well with an extended peak.
He’s a highly rated defender at a skill position, which means there are lots of ways to extract some value from him even once he inevitably starts to decline. Imagine that Grady in the last couple years of the deal probably will be no worse than Johnny Damon, a plus-defender in left field who can still hit a little above average for that position; this is also comparable to Coco Crisp at his peak. Nobody likes to imagine the player will be diminished at some point, but he probably will be. The point is that a diminished Grady is still worth something, and while he would be overpaid at that point, he wouldn’t be grossly overpaid. This is an important hedge to have going for you on a huge wager, and one we didn’t have with Hafner. It may have been precisely this factor that Antonetti referred to at the end of our discussion about Hafner’s contract.
He is, of course, a local icon at the moment, and potentially far into the future. Tough to put a price on that. It wasn’t enough to justify keeping Victor Martinez, who will soon be a nicely above-average first baseman in his mid-30s. It’s not really enough to justify extending Grady either, but it’s a small factor in the plus column. He has shown an interest in staying with the club long-term and doesn’t seem motivated by money. He’s not a pitcher.
The bottom line, I guess, is if you’re not going to extend Grady long-term, then you’re not going to extend anyone. The negatives on Grady are slight. He suffered injuries this seasonbut but generally has been very durable. He could be even a little younger, but that’s really a function of how long he allowed himself to be locked up to begin with — remember, based on the standard amateur player contract, 2010 should have been his walk-year, not 2012. And he could be an even better player, though that seems like a petty thing to say about a guy who has been a Top 10 player for most of his career.
So I think we should extend a player long-term when nearly all the circumstances are right, and I think in Grady’s case, nearly all the circumstances are right.
The best time to extend him is next offseason. If he bounces back significantly, your risk has been cut more than the price has gone up. He’s got only one guaranteed year left, but the club has two years of control left. That’s the best leverage moment, when he has the most to gain by an extension. He’s giving up the discount, so the club has to give up everything else. If you can get him to take a four-year deal, meaning the current two plus four more for a total of six, 2011-2016, then you do that of course. You give him five if that’s what it takes and think about six. Again, he’s not Thome; he’s got a lot of peripheral value even in decline.
by Jay on Dec 11, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 7 recs
The bottom line, I guess, is if you’re not going to extend Grady long-term, then you’re not going to extend anyone.
This is the money shot for me. Thanks for the thoughtful analysis, Jay.
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Dec 11, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t want to have to change my user name.
I propose giving Victor a 2012 World Series ring.
by Gradyforpresident on Dec 11, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
Because the guy who succeedes Grady as president might be more forceful than he is?
Couldn’t help myself.
That was a good one, but I was referring to my user name.
Impending North Korea doom and gloom > SSChoo returns to save all of his native people > Returns 3 years later as a World renowned hero > So respected now that pitchers automatically walk him > Still manages to hit doubles every at bat.
Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...
Grady is a long shot for the Hall. A real long shot.
He has three years remaining in his prime. I don’t think he suddenly goes all Barry Bonds. As a matter of fact, I say he won’t repeat what he’s already done. His career year, I predict, will be his age 23 season, when he had an OPS+ of 133 and 349 total bases. The trend has not been good since then.
Chuck earlier suggested Grady is on the decline. He cited injury as a factor, and was concerned about Sizemore’s health going forward.
His (Grady’s) adjusted OPS+ ranks 33rd among active players. Centerfield is a skill position, but here we go again with the Top 10 stuff.
Sizemore is a great player, but it’s premature to compare him to Bob Feller. He’s a local icon, and this colors our perceptions of him. There’s nothing wrong with being Ray Lankford.
I stand by the statement, specifically, that he he’s been a Top 10 player. He consistently has ranked in the Top 15 via the WAR metric — once he was 19th, and in 2006 he was second only to Pujols. That metric gives insufficient consideration to baserunning, and Sizemore might be the most effective baserunner in the game, and it doesn’t adjust for the difference between the leagues. If you adjust for those factors, you find that Sizemore has been in the Top 10 more seasons than not.
Chuck’s theory has merit. Obviously we’ll get some very relevant data out of the 2010 season before any decisions are made, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. I think if he is healthy, he is likely to repeat and has good shot to exceed what he’s already done. Players of his typology often peak in their late 20s and don’t decline significantly for years to come. The chance that he at some point hits 40 HR is probably in the range of 15-20%.
I always thought Edmonds was way, way overrated. Too lazy/busy to look up the stats right now, but he seemed to me the kind of player that routinely misjudged flyballs and made up for it with tremendous, acrobatic catches.
People look at catches like Edmonds and heap glory on him for it but think about Mays’ “The Catch” … the reason that was so impressive was because he ran that ball down at full tilt and didn’t have to dive to catch it.
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Dec 14, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree that the acrobatics were a classic case of something unimpressive masquerading as something impressive. Still, Edmonds’ career totals up to something not that far outside of Cooperstown.
Over a career of 16 seasons, Edmonds had an OPS+ of 132. Over six seasons, Grady’s OPS+ is 124. But Edmonds’ career really took off after he turned 30.
Yeah, but Sizemore is a better baserunner and a better all-around fielder. Not that he’ll ever have the reputation Edmonds did, so it’s probably a moot point in terms of potential HOF otes.
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Dec 15, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
I like the LGT variation of duck-duck-goose.
Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...
by USSChoo on Dec 15, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
so impressive was because he ran that ball down at full tilt and didn’t have to dive to catch it
Reminds me of this: Pretend the OF wall isn’t present.
I think you’re being generous but not irrational in your assessment of Sizemore.
Two questions: (1) What is an effective baserunner?
(2) “Players of his typology often peak in their late 20s and don’t decline significantly for years to come.” What is Sizemore’s typology?
An effective baserunner is one who takes extra bases more often and gets thrown out less often.
Sizemore’s typology is that of an exceptional all-around athlete who excels in multiple aspects of the game. He isn’t like to have a HOF career, but he is the same type of player as Barry Bonds. A good comp is Torii Hunter, who is playing a couple notches better for several years longer than some folks expected him to. The key is his athleticism and plurality of valuable skills.
I was thinking you were going more with body type. I could see players with Grady’s physique lasting longer than players with Kirby Puckett’s physique. Jim Edmonds might be a comp, but he seemed to be hurt all the time toward the end of his career.
And why was Jim Edmonds hurt all the time? Because he ran into too many walls.
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Dec 15, 2009 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
Well, you can say that, but as of right now, Edmonds is a better centerfielder than Sizemore.
The emphasis on baserunning to make the case for Grady’s greatness is kind of amusing. Baserunning? Really? Why doesn’t he score more runs, then?
I don’t remember reading the study, but what other players are great baserunners?
Why doesn’t he score more runs, then?
because the people that hit behind him are terrible?
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Dec 15, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s being mentioned a lot only in that (a) he’s exceptional at it, and (b) it’s excluded from basically all stats, even the most advanced everything-but-the-kitchen-sink stats like Win Shares.
Some things are very difficult to estimate based on regular data alone — many defensive stats these days are based on “new data” generated by having individuals watch games and make subjective judgments about zones and range, essentially adding a second level of “unofficial scoring” to the available data.
Baserunning hasn’t been taken to that level yet, as far as I know. As the recent study indicated, however, there are more creative ways to utilize the regular data to come up with more intelligent estimates of baserunning acumen. Based on those methods, Grady seems to an elite baserunner. So it’s not a secret essence, and once a sophisticated enough method is applied, it is in fact reflected in reductionist stats.
Can someone provide me a link to this study? The subjectivity of the fielding stats causes some of our confusions about RZRs and range, etc. Perhaps such things are not quantifiable anyway. Most people know a good fielder or baserunner when they see one. There is a correlation between good baserunning and runs scored or doubles, right?
The emphasis on baserunning to make the case for Grady’s greatness is kind of amusing. Baserunning? Really? Why doesn’t he score more runs, then?
More runs than what? What are you looking for? I admit to not being tuned it all to his personal runs scored, with that being such a dumb stat and all, but now that I looked, there’s nothing surprising.
Speaking of ‘kind of amusing,’ it’s my impression that you are going about this with an attitude that you are correcting some Indian-centric perspective that says Grady is one of the best players in the game. You’re mistaken. That view is widespread throughout the game and it is your take on him – that he’s a player on the decline who had his career year in 2005 (not to mention that he had a similar year way back in 2008) – that is contrary to the standard, non-Indian take. And that’s both from a traditional (the opinions of baseball decision-makers around the league) and statistical (such as the baserunning studies you dismissed without bothering to look up).
That’s fine. We’ll all aware of your believe that Grady is merely good and is declining already. You may be right, but still haven’t shown a single reason beyond your simple hunch.
I’m as guilty as anyone of being overly optomistic about our players. I still have a spot on my wall reserved for the Gregorio Rosario poster. But I don’t think that’s the case here.
You may be right, but still haven’t shown a single reason beyond your simple hunch.
Evidence and statistics are no longer in vogue with the dissenting crowd.
Here’s some statistics. You might want to look at his total bases or his OPS+. Also, his doubles. You also may want to compare him to Dale Murphy or Andruw Jones. (I know, here I go again with comparisons to great ball-players, but isn’t that what we are talking about? I didn’t suggest you compare him to Barry Bonds.)
I base my speculation about Sizemore on two things: (1) his injuries, and the prospect of him not playing at full health in the future (as a function of his age), (2) his inability to match 2006 (though he came close in 2008). He seems—I haven’t looked at the spray charts in a while—to be less of a gap hitter and more of a pull hitter, which suggests more power and fewer extra base hits.
I never said I held a popular opinion. I don’t like it myself. I’d like to see him become a Hall of Fame center fielder. Where is your evidence and statistics (baserunning!) that says he is great and destined for even greater feats? This is speculation on my part, and it is speculation on your part. Citing a study of baserunning doesn’t make your opinion much more empirical than mine.
The fundamental criticism, however, is that you routinely suggest that the “mob” here at LGT is suffering from an overly rosy view of Sizemore’s powers. Never mind the recent video I posted in which Will Carroll opined that even in consideration of his recent injuries and down year, Sizemore ought to be going in the first 25 or so picks in any fantasy draft. Just for one example.
Dave is making the argument that the LGT mob’s opinion of Grady is only slightly higher than conventional wisdom within the industry, if it’s at all higher, and also among sabermetrically inclined non-Indians fans, and that if anything, your opinion is not just unpopular here, but everywhere in baseball.
That’s valid. I will point out that Will Carroll says Grady is undervalued and will be a good pickup based on prevailing opinions. People have overreacted, and Grady’s value is suppressed. Popular opinion in the fantasy world says Sizemore isn’t a top ten player.
Popularity has nothing to do with this. One can find thousands of morons at cleveland.com who agree about something that’s wrong. I haven’t stated that I have a popular opinion here.
Sneaky guy, you keep changing the argument! For the third time, the point isn’t that your opinion goes against the grain here, it’s that it goes against the grain among the top professionals in the industry.
I’m sure it does. And your point is, you have the armies. I’m aware of the fact that I do not enjoy the support of top professionals in the industry (though maybe someone in some organization harbors doubts about the Cleveland centerfielder) but that’s not what I’m claiming. Nor does it make my claim wrong ipso facto. I get that it’s an unpopular opinion even among top professionals.
I agree, it doesn’t make your claim wrong ipso facto. I am merely dispensing with the posture that this is disagreement is one reasonable man against a legion of fanboys.
I laid out the above rant for two reasons. One, to correct any notion that this is a LGT or Cleveland-specific kool-aid that you are fighting.
But two, to point out where the burden is here. When you drop his B-Ref page, we see a player that has had success at a young age that is entering his traditional prime, and we separately know that his injury last year is expected to be recoverable (poor phrasing). We can point to a systemic numerical study of similar players, or survey baseball men (imperfectly, obviously). The point being that you should be looking for slightly under-the-surface studies like the baserunning one to make your case, not me. When it comes to baseball players, Grady’s an excellent bet.
We see different things, obviously, when we look at his stats. I can’t cite a study that supports my assertion.
And, obviously, Grady is held in higher repute among Indians’ fans than he is among the general population. That’s part and parcel of fandom.
i’m new to LGT but over at dawgs by nature there’s a guy named mooncamping, who makes arguments that go against all conventional football wisdom. I’m not saying this is nearly as bad as what he does, but what you seem to be doing here is saying the entire baseball establishment is wrong about grady and you’re the only one that can see the truth. are you seriously saying you can evaluate a player better than most people who do it professionally?
by notthatnoise on Dec 17, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Are you seriously saying you can evaluate a player better than most people who do it professionally?
Not at all. I doubt that the “entire baseball establishment” is certain Grady will have as solid a career as Jim Edmonds did.
but pretty much everybody would agree he’s in the middle of or entering his prime, not on the decline.
by notthatnoise on Dec 17, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
He did match 2006 exactly in 2008 in terms of OPS plus. Additionally, despite playing with two injuries in a plus defensive position, he was still an above average hitter. Neither of his injuries is of the nature that would (in terms of other players with similar injuries) give us reason to think they would be a long term detriment to his production. I think your thought process is flawed.
Everybody should get ice cream every day.
I know you do. But I never said he wasn’t an above average hitter. In 2008 we saw his maturation as a hitter—more power, fewer line drives, more walks—but we also see a significant decline in slugging and total bases.
I hope you’re right about the injuries. Chuck was less sanguine about them, and he says he’s a doctor.
I guess I did. I know he’s a good baserunner, I just wasn’t sure of Jay’s definition (a station-to-station plodder could be viewed as effective if taking extra bases isn’t considered).
Effective, perhaps, but not elite. Grady already had a great reputation, but that particular study concluded that he was the most effective baserunner in the game over the past five seasons, and in fact he took more extra bases in four years than almost anyone did in five.
This, and the utter lack of accounting for it in even the most advanced well-known stats, is why I’ve been hammering on the baserunning aspect of his game.
Yesterday I bought the new Bill James Handbook. In his ranking of 2009 baserunning, Grady has a net gain of +1. (The best baserunner is Michael Bourn, with a net gain of +55; the worst is Juan Rivera with a net gain of -37.) Denard Span has a net gain of +24, Jhonny -11. James explains his methodology for BR gain, and it seems pretty simple. It appears Sizemore is not an elite baserunner according to James.
In terms of defense, as ranked by range factor, Sizemore is the sixth best in the bigs. (Valbuena is the highest-ranked second baseman among regulars, second in the majors.) In their Fielding Bible awards, Sizemore is tied for tenth best in the bigs (with Chris Young). In terms of outfield runs saved leaders, Grady is not in the top ten either for 2009 (understandably) or for the past three years. Nor is he in the top ten for outfield plus/minus leaders, either in the 2009 list or the three-year list.
Is this for 2009 only? Because the Grady I watched had a groin injury all year and his baserunning clearly suffered. Not sure how this supports your point.
The once and future
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Dec 20, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
I figured somebody would say that. I don’t remember—when did the groin injury happen? The elbow seemed like the chronic problem.
In the Fielding Bible Awards, eight of the panel of ten experts chose Gutierrez as defensive CF of the year. The two exceptions: Hal Richman (who thinks Torii Hunter is still number one) and Bill James (who thinks Chris Young is the best). Andrew McCutchen got one vote. There’s science at work.
Spring training. It’s what kept him out of the WBC. So, unless you’re factoring in the first week of March, it counts as “all year.”
The once and future
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Dec 20, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
Apparently you still have not read this study, which is from the exact same source.
What it shows is that despite a negligible total for 2009, Grady still grades out as the most productive baserunner over the past five seasons, 2005-2009.
In other words, he took more marginal bases in four seasons than the next best guy had in five seasons. This is almost exactly the same magnitude of dominance that Gutierrez has as a defender.
In other news, Shoppach is an average ballplayer.
You’re right—I hadn’t read it, thanks. And his failings in 2009 were attributable to injury? The Toronto National Post says: “He injured his abdomen during a drill in spring training.”
I love the Soloff quote regarding Sizemore’s prospects in June:
Soloff said Tuesday that there is a “high index of suspicion” Sizemore will have the surgery when the ’09 season concludes.
Marson will be better.
I am working “high index of suspicion” into my 10am meeting tomorrow. I have no idea what the context will be, or even if it will be remotely applicable, but I have a high index of suspicion that this phrase is awesome.
by gte619n on Dec 20, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
high index of suspicion
Proof that FO speak is an organic thing that continues to evolve…
by stuart dean on Dec 23, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
I guess after this summer, I’ve just decided to assume Grady’s departure. Shoot, if we bomb in 2012, we’ll probably flip him at the deadline.
If I break it down further, I tend to think of a Sizemore extension from Grady’s perspective:
PROS: Shiny new training complex that’s 10 minutes away from Ft. Grady in Arizona; can go boozing in Tremont essentially unmolested; adoring fanbase; good relationship with teammates and front office.
CONS: Could wait til free agency and then begin construction of Grady Island.
I have no idea what values Grady places on these things, but all the evidence we’ve got suggests that the average pro athlete would rather have the island.
by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
But he lives in AZ pretty much full time now. Any word on if his parents are still in Seattle?
Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...
His parents live in Arizona as well.
Clone Grady 25 times and we will win the World Serious in 2040
by biscuitsandgrady on Dec 15, 2009 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
I’m doing this just to feel less sad about one (actually, make that two) in particular:
PROJECTED 2013 LINEUP
Catcher Santana
First Base LaPorta
Second Base Valbuena
Third Base Chisenhall
Shortstop Cabrera
Left Field Brantley
Center Field Sizemore
Right Field Choo
Designated Hitter Weglarz
Rotation " Rondon, Westbrook, Knapp, Huff, Hagadone
Closer " Masterson
Best Hitter for Average: Lonnie Chisenhall (BA) or Michael Brantley (OBP)
Best Power Hitter: Carlos Santana
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Nick Weglarz
Fastest Baserunner: Michael Brantley
Best Athlete: ????
Best Fastball: Nick Hagadone or Jason Knapp
Best Breaking Ball: Alex White’s slider?
Best Changeup: Dave Huff?
Best Control: White?
Best Defensive Catcher: It’d better be Santana
Best Defensive Infielder: Chiz?
Best Infield Arm: Argenis Martinez?
Best Defensive Outfielder: ????
Best Outfield Arm: Evidently, it’s Matt Brown or Abner Abreau
2013 Lineup
Catcher: Carlos Santana
First Base: Matt LaPorta
Second Base: Jason Kipnis
Third Base: Lonnie Chisenhall
Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera
Left Field: Michael Brantley
Center Field: ???
Right Field: Shin-Soo Choo
Designated Hitter: Nick Weglarz.
Rotation: Nick Hagadone, Hector Rondon, Dave Huff, Alex White, Jason Knapp
Closer: Chris Perez
by ken from alexandria on Dec 11, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions
C: Santana
1B: LaPorta
2B: Valbuena
SS: Cabrera
3B: Chisenhall
LF: Sizemore
CF: Brantley
RF: Choo
DH: Kipnis
Rotation: Rondon, Hagadone, House, Carrasco, Masterson
Closer: Alex White
I’ll go out on a limb and say that House and White are going to make quick work of the minors and be in the spots noted. This also means Knapp and Barnes are set-up guys.
The OF is a bit suspect, but I’m looking at Kipnis’ production in an elite DI college and saying that he’ll be up in the DH role until the get the OF straightened-away. But I do think that Grady moves to LF by ’13.
BB SO HR AVG OBP SLG #1 51 32 16 384 500 709 #2 36 30 9 403 477 715
- = Jason Kipnis, ASU, 2009 (237 ABs)
- = Trevor Crowe U of A, 2005 (263 ABs)
You’ve got a lot more faith in college stats than I do, but I like your enthusiasm.
I agree that White’s probably going to end up a reliever, though that’s just a gut feeling.
by fleerdon on Dec 11, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
I’ll admit that I looked at the Kipnis draft and immediately thought he was Crowe part II. But I gotta hope the Tribe can make good draft picks after (and including) the first round. If not, we’re gonna be in trouble for a long, long time.
Just for fun:
BB SO HR AVG OBP SLG SB CS
- 36 21 6 406 495 582 26 8
- = Jacoby Ellsbury, U of Oregon, 2005 (244 ABs) taken 9 picks after Crowe
Kipnis 2009: 27 SB 6 CS in college.
The point is, Kipnis could be Ellsbury (which I would personally be happy with), or he could be Crowe. As Jay’s said many times, the draft is a crap-shoot. I’m hoping Kipnis works out.
Crowe would still be a decent prospect had he made the switch to 2B. There is just a world of difference in positional value between fringe-range CF and solid 2B.
by Jay on Dec 11, 2009 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
completely agree. i was hoping he’d make that switch successfully, but it wasn’t to be. either the tribe has the same plan for Kipnis (unlikely with Valgood at 2) or they hope he’ll turn into something like Ellsbury or a Damon-ish player.
My projection has him turning out the latter, and being in some CF/LF/DH rotation or configuration w/ Grady and Brantley.
You think Valbuena is so entrenched that they’d hesitate to develop another 2B? Ridiculous. Middle infielders are usually scarce and always held at a premium.
I don’t think they’d rush headlong into another 2B experiment right after Crowe unless they had reason to be more optimistic about it. I say it’s at least 2-to-1 he makes the switch.
I think it would be difficult to justify moving a 2nd round pick to 2B considering: A) the current high-upside 2B has little time accumulated on his service clock, 2) that 2nd round pick being converted is a college player, so if he was good enough to be a high pick, he could be ready for the majors on a rebuilding team within 2 years – while we still have the incumbent 2B, and C) an unsettled OF picture means that, in general, there’s 3 chances for him to make it to the majors. And on our team, until the Choo/Korea situation is cleared up, there’s 2 spots potentially open in 2 years: LF and RF (or in my projection: CF and RF).
But in general, I agree with you that MI are scarce and it’s prudent to develop them when possible. I just think that if Kipnis is that developed, and takes only a little time in the minors, there’s more opportunity at the major league level in the OF than at 2b.
I think you are way, way off the way the Indians or most any club think about this. They are not going to let the big-league roster dictate development decisions below Double-A, or let a guy below Double-A dictate decisions at the big league level. Until you have a player putting up big numbers in Double-A, there is no reason to even think about how the puzzle pieces eventually will fit together.
I can basically guarantee that’s how the club sees it, and point in fact, did they not just acquire an advanced middle infield prospect — a guy who is probably two years closer to the majors than Kipnis — just this past July 31?
nd point in fact, did they not just acquire an advanced middle infield prospect — a guy who is probably two years closer to the majors than Kipnis — just this past July 31?
yet another reason why I don’t think they should move Kipnis to 2b – if he’s playing to the same level as Donald or Valbuena, he’s third on that list of who gets playing time.
You’re right that no good front office is going to let the current MLB roster dictate what players they draft, and what positional movements those players will have.
But, the best way to get a good ROI on drafted players is to get them to the majors as quickly as possible, when they’re ready (or maybe slightly before they’re ready). If the Indians are drafting college players with the hopes that they reach the majors in 3-4 years, then my points are valid. If Kipnis is the type of player that can make it to the majors in 2-4 years, we will still have Valbuena, and we will still have Marson to play second. In that situation, moving Kipnis to 2b doesn’t benefit the MLB club.
Trying to move Crowe to 2b before ‘06 made sense: Belliard was on his way out and Phillips clearly wasn’t in the plans. There was no internal option at 2b at any level of the minors. Now, the landscape is different. We have Valbuena as the starting 2b, Marson can be the backup and we know that Asdrubal can play there if he absolutely has to (I’m not suggesting that we move him there, rather that he has shown he can play the position at the MLB level). Right now, the OF situation is much more fluid than the 2b position.
I’m saying that if Kipnis can move quickly (or anyone else for that matter), there are positions that can be had in the OF in the next 2-3 years. It’s much more open than 2B.
No, your points are not valid. Injuries happen. Sophomore slumps and outright flameouts happen. And if all else fails to fail, quality depth can be traded for other missing pieces. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever — none — that the Indians would or will worry about ending up with more quality middle infielders than they can use, at any point, now or in the future.
I have to hand it to you Jay. Until my interactions with you, I’ve never met anyone that is completely unable to admit when they are wrong.
Nobody ever thinks, “Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.”
What you are suggesting is simply 100% at odds with the way major league teams operate in the minors, based on what I’ve observed over the past decade of following such things. I don’t know any other way to put it. I’ll even set aside the question of whether what you’re saying is what they should be doing. The fact is, teams just don’t operate that way, regardless of whether they should.
This is hubris in the extreme. I’d say we all pride ourselves in being open to new information. What you are suggesting, however, is just foolish.
I don’t think it’s foolish, it’s just not the way clubs operate.
What I would really like to know, lenred, is exactly what makes you so confident that you’re right and I’m wrong? Is it the godlike nature of your logic? Or do you think you have better information than I have?
I do, as you may have noticed, think it is foolish. Why worry about where someone is playing when developing minor league talent? We’ve all seen how quickly things can change with injuries/inexplicable sucking/sudden weight gain or whatever. Moving a player to a different position because of what you hope might happen in three years is just absurd.
I’m with Be Rad on this one. There’s just nothing to suggest that it would be a bad move to develop Kipnis as a 2B. It’s not like the lottery of the NBA draft, where you take a player planning to plug him right in. There’s just too much that can happen between now and whenever we project Kipnis to arrive to say “we’ve got position X locked down, let’s not worry about it.” Val gets fat like Baerga, Donald’s back never gets better, and we’re suddenly staring down the barrel of the Nuiman Romero era. Given the option of having a half dozen otherwise equal guys at either MI or OF spread through my organization, I think the answer should be fairly obvious.
Everybody should get ice cream every day.
I think you mean Donald, not Marson.
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Dec 13, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
2013 Lineup
Catcher: Carlos Santana
First Base: Beau Mills
Second Base: Luis Valbuena
Third Base: Andy Marte
Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera
Left Field: Matt LaPorta
Center Field: Choo
Right Field: Lonnie Chisenhall
Designated Hitter: Manny Ramirez (final season)
UI: Jason Donald
UO: Brantley
Rotation: Fausto Carmona, David Huff, Hector Rondon, Aaron Laffey, Chris ‘Comeback’ Carpenter
Closer: Alex White
I dig your confidence on Marte and Mills. I feel a little better about Mills than Marte, just because. I’d guess some FA 3b plug-in.
Chris “comeback” Carpenter. Actual LOL.
Marte will be in his walk year in 2013, and we’ll all be cursing because we have to trade him at the deadline or let him walk for nothing. No hometown discount from this guy.
Think Choo has the range for CF?
"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay
by Turkmenbashi on Dec 12, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Hhis inability to deal with the sun is…frustrating.
by afh4 on Dec 14, 2009 9:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Best Hitter for Average: Santana
Best Power Hitter: Santana
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Weglarz
Fastest Baserunner: Constanza? Have to rely on scouts here
Best Athlete: If Kipnis sticks at second base?
Best Fastball: Hagadone Not many lefties can touch 100 mph
Best Breaking Ball: Don’t know, but supposedly Alexander Perez’ breaking stuff is ahead of his fastball
Best Changeup: Huff’s supposed out pitch is his changeup
Best Control: Hat tip to APV on the fringe pitchers list: Tomlin
Best Defensive Catcher: Toregas, if eligible
Best Defensive Infielder: By lack of defensive stats for minor leaguers, Cord Phelps was seen as pretty good by scouts, and had a pretty good errorless streak if I remember correctly
Best Infield Arm: ?
Best Defensive Outfielder: Not Jordan Brown.
Best Outfield Arm: Not Jordan Brown.
2013 Lineup
Catcher: Carlos Santana
First Base: Matt LaPorta
Second Base: Jason Kipnis
Third Base: Lonnie Chisenhall
Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera
Left Field: FA
Center Field: Brantley
Right Field: Shin-Soo Choo
Designated Hitter: Nick Weglarz.
Rotation: Hagadone, Rondon, Huff, White, Carrasco/Laffey
Closer: Chris Perez
You could, happily, make a case for Carlos Santana.
So much better than
and, to a lesser extent, Chris Gimenez
Everybody should get ice cream every day.
Some lessons I’m drawing from this exercise:
1. Everybody Loves Lonnie: And why shouldn’t we? You know that Dominic Brown guy everybody was slobbering over, the one the Phillies were sooooo lucky they didn’t have to trade? Sure, is MLE OPS is about 80 points better than Lonnie’s, but then he’s 13 months older than Chisenhall, no more advanced, and plays left field.
2. Is Mike Brantley a center fielder? Do we really think of him as heir apparent to Grady, or are we really just that thin at center? The Brewers actually tried Brantley out at first base. I mean, he LOOKS like a center fielder, but IS he one? I wonder sometimes if LaPorta isn’t the better outfielder of the two.
3. When do we sign Cabrera and Choo to their club-friendly extensions?
4. The system is looking thin on elite defenders. I mean, I’d rather have guys who field respectably and also can hit. It’s just an observation.
5. Having graduated LaPorta, we don’t seem flush with big bats, either. Carlos, Nicky, maybe Lonnie, and then … and then not a whole lot.
6. This is a big season for Beau Mills. There’s still a chance at first base, but he’s created an opportunity for Andy Marte. Is this a big season for Andy Marte, though? I get that he’s our best Peralta insurance. Excited though I am about Lonnie, he could still take another two years or more to get to the majors and be on schedule. I dunno, maybe I just want to see Marte play third again. It was pretty.
7. Man oh man, do we have a lot of bullpen candidates to audition this season.
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2009 9:30 AM EST reply actions
I thought there were injury reasons that Brantley was tried out at first base by the Brewers.
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Dec 15, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, they were just trying to get him some more at-bats while he healed. Tyler, you’re a bit out in left field on this one.
which is good, since apparently brantley doesn’t belong there.
by Brick. on Dec 15, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree, and I think I’ve said so before. This is what people who think Brantley supplants Grady in CF eventually don’t really get. Grady will not ever move to LF except for a solid everyday lineup guy who is an above-average defender in CF. That does not appear to be Brantley.
So basically the only feasible scenario the Indians would have had would be if Gutz stuck around and proved everyday worth while Choo was also in RF. Yeah?
Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...
I either forgot that, or never knew it. Thanks.
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
1. Yes – lots of people like Lonnie, and we do too
2. I think we don’t know what kind of a defensive outfielder Brantley is
3. I would think this year is critical to that process, so not till late 2010 at the earliest
4. Yes – I think we are thin on elite defenders (though Beau Mills mysteriously graded out as one of the best defensive first basemen this year)
5. What do you want, an egg in your beer? You just named 4 big bats in the upper part of our system.
6. Marte is an enigma both in his ability and in how the team views him. This is a big year for Beau Mills. He can either regain prospect status or go the Ryan Mulhern/Goleski route
7. But many of them will be auditioning in Akron and Columbus
Something my 70-year old Jesuit pre-calc teacher used to say when we complained. As a 15-year old I had no idea what he was talking about. As a 30-year old I only feel moderately more informed.
Put a raw egg into your beer. Don’t stir it. Drink the whole thing down. Add a little Tabasco in, if you feel like it.
My dad has always said that too. Maybe an Ohio thing.
by dgcambridge on Dec 15, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I think it’s a legitimate to wonder where all the damned position players are in the lower minors. Having said that, when you have a good and rather young major league lineup and quite a few terrific position player prospects in the upper minors, you can afford to have that lower minors problem for a few years. Despite the paucity of lower minors position player talent, you’ll note the Indians acquired ZERO such players in trades over the past 18 months — and there have been LOTS of trades.
I think it’s a legitimate to wonder where all the damned position players are in the lower minors
I don’t think we are devoid of these guys. First, Chisenhall is just a 2008 draft product. So he counts. Guys like Phelps, Fedroff, Abreu and Cid are potential pieces, if not stars. This year’s draft shows a little more of an offensive slant with guys like Kipnis, Bellows and Henry. But I think the bigger picture is that we had a really big wave of offensive pieces including Cabrera, Choo, Marte, Weglarz, Mills, Rivero, Santana, Brantley, LaPorta and on and on. Offensive players, if they stick, are a little safer bets than pitchers because of health reasons. Once in place you have a little more margin of error. I would expect acquisitions this year to perhaps reflect a more balanced acquisition strategy of offensive/pitchers.
You can go even deeper if you’d like and see guys like Diores Robles (born in 1992!), Jesus Aguilar and Alex Monslave on the DSL roster. Jesus Brito on the AZL team. Bo Greenwell. We have some young guys there, just none of them outside of Chisenhall are close, high-profile, or obviously high-ceiling. The Indians have had this strange phenomena of repeatedly having incredibly boring offensive squads and interesting pitching squads at Lake County, but perhaps that will change this year.
And we haven’t been drafting that many high school hitters in the early parts of the draft. Drafting a 20 year old like Bellows is fine, but it’s hard to register anything about a guy drafted at that age until he gets higher up. We just have not been picking up that 18 year old hitter who rakes at Lake County. That guys will have to come through the international signings, and, for better or worse, it takes longer for those guys to come onto the radar (though you’ve listed a few there).
by dgcambridge on Dec 15, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
It’s also worth noting that one or two of those guys could become serious prospects. It’s still too early to tell with alot of these kids in low A or in rookie ball.
Is there a bonafide position prospect for next year’s draft (outside of Harper)? It seems like arms are once again dominant.
Well, this completely speculative mock draft has us taking Bryce Brentz, an outfielder from Middle Tennessee State whom we selected in the 30th round last year. He slugged a cool 935 last season.
On the pitching side … Matt Harvey’s from UNC, and Cristian Colon’s from CS-Fullerton, both programs our scouts like, but come on, man. NINE THIRTY FIVE!
This is all assuming that, as with last year’s draft, the first four picks are gobsmackingly obvious.
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
That second linked guy, I’ve got no idea how good his info is, but he writes pretty well. Fun site. He’s got us taking a Georgia Tech pitcher named Deck McGuire next year. Dude’s got some serious control issues, but that is one hell of a baseball name.
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Brentz achieved that .935 SLG by getting an extra-base hit in one out of every five trips to the plate, with over half of those extra-base hits being HR.
Placing my order for a Brentz jersey…now.
by The DiaTriber on Dec 15, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
Henry is my official Prospect to Watch, 2010 edition.
It’ll be interesting to see what kinds of talents the Indians pursue next year, I agree. With those trade chips and a #5 pick in the draft…
…and so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m interested in everyone (nearly) as always – but I particularly want to see what Kipnis does. I’m also interested to see what Alex White and Joe Gardner can do on the pitching side of things.
And for some reason (the money invested?) I’m interested in Trey Haley’s year. It could be a ton of fun. Here’s what Atkins said, via Lastoria:
On Trey Haley’s command issues: “It is the case with so many young pitchers. They are coming into a new brand of baseball, the strike zones are slightly different, the competition is certainly different, and we are asking them to make adjustments that we think will help them in the long run. All of the adjustments that they are making often end up in walks. For an 18-year old who throws 95 MPH it is more often the case than not. We are asking him to do things that we know will create less consistency in the short term and hopeful that he will benefit and we will benefit in the long term. He is such a good athlete and is extremely hardworking that we are extremely optimistic that it will work for him and we will see those walk numbers decrease here soon.”
This is where odradek should be mocking me regarding stupid optimism, not Grady Freakin’ Sizemore.
On T.J. House: “Well, by contrast, T.J. just showed up awesome.”
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
House is awesome. I just think Haley represents that pure, high-ceiling, gamble arm drafted out of high school. Some would say that is a fool’s gamble, and I think they’re right. For other people, this is exactly the kind of player that people whine about the Tribe not signing.
Pure upside. I’m fascinated, whether he’s a star or million dollar train wreck.
5. Didn’t intend for any of this to sound like griping. Just riffing, really. I appreciate that we’ve got several legit offensive talents, and that that’s several more than we had before the 2008 deadline.
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
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