Top Prospects, part 3: The fringe pitchers
| 2010 | Top Prospects | 4 | Position Players |
| 1 | The Injured | 5 | Pitchers 1 |
| 2 | Fringe Position Players | 5.5 | Pitchers 2 |
| 3 | Fringe Pitchers | 6 | Santana & Recap |
Identifying fringe pitching prospects is a more difficult job than identifying fringe position players, mainly because I think just about any high-performing minor league bullpen guy could be considered fringe. Nevertheless, here is my attempt at identifying guys who, like the previous list, could be or have been interesting, but don't quite meet my standards for being a legit prospect right now. (ages are as of 7/1/09, levels represent the highest level they have seen more than a coffee cup of action)
Paolo Espino (22.5, high-A) - Espino was originally part of the Lake County 2007 cohort that included Kelvin De La Cruz and Jeanmar Gomez. After a few injury issues and some shuffling in and out of the rotation the past two years, Espino emerged with a pretty solid season in the Kinston rotation in 2009. Espino showed a strong K-rate, above average control, and stayed healthy the whole season. A little old given his injury history, he might be a sleeper candidate if he performs well in the Akron rotation next season.
| P Espino | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 108.1 | 3.84 | 3.66 | 6.9 | 25.7 | 45.8 | 22 | 4.77 |
| 2008 | 66.2 | 3.77 | 5.54 | 7.7 | 22.8 | 47.4 | 9 | 0.99 |
| 2009 | 134.2 | 3.68 | 3.01 | 6.5 | 21.2 | 40.6 | 27 | 4.17 |
Josh Tomlin (24.7, AA) - Tomlin is a favorite of mine. After working mostly out of the bullpen in 2007 and 2008, Tomlin took his control skills into the Akron rotation this season. His excellent control remained true to form, and even though he lost some of his swing and miss abilities with the move to the rotation, he still maintained an excellent K:BB ratio of 4.7. His problem is HRs...having allowed 21 this year. Probably no more than a depth starter/bullpen swingman at the most, but if he figures out how to keep the ball in the park...who knows.
| J Tomlin | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 131.1 | 3.97 | 3.36 | 5.6 | 19.7 | 44.9 | 24 | 2.86 |
| 2008 | 109.2 | 2.88 | 3.04 | 4.0 | 26.4 | 42.0 | 45 | 3.84 |
| 2009 | 145.0 | 3.51 | 4.16 | 4.5 | 20.8 | 36.4 | 13 | 4.06 |
Bryan Price (22.0, high-A) - Part of the Victor Martinez package from the Red Sox, Price doesn't have any obvious red flags. He gets a good number of Ks, has pretty good control, was durable in 2009, and gives up a few more HRs than you might like, but not an atrociously high number. What keeps him from being an interesting prospect at the moment is simply that the sum of the parts isn't quite enough. Another candidate to begin the season in Akron's rotation, a strong performance could easily make him a guy to watch.
| B Price | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2008 | 40.0 | 3.14 | 3.82 | 5.6 | 23.9 | 52.4 | 20 | 2.43 |
| 2009 | 132.2 | 3.76 | 4.75 | 7.2 | 22.3 | 43.0 | 21 | 4.01 |
Yohan Pino (25.5, AAA)
Pino's relatively advanced age is a product of concerns over how his stuff would hold up against more advanced hitters and a subsequent slow advancement cycle. That said, against AAA hitters, Pino did quite well in 2009. He showed outstanding control, more than adequate strikeout numbers, and excellent (perhaps lucky) homerun numbers given his strong flyball tendencies. Pino's numbers bear a strong resemblance to Scott Lewis, minus the multiple arm surgeries. It might be a negative indicator that no team felt like giving him a shot in the rule 5 draft, but I'm glad they didn't.
| Y Pino | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2006 | 94.0 | 2.85 | 1.91 | 5.3 | 26.3 | 44.9 | 56 | 3.85 |
| 2007 | 115.0 | 3.55 | 3.13 | 5.5 | 22.1 | 38.9 | 40 | 3.58 |
| 2008 | 109.0 | 4.41 | 4.54 | 7.9 | 16.1 | 35.7 | -22 | -0.16 |
| 2009 | 127.0 | 3.44 | 2.83 | 5.6 | 23.7 | 36.2 | 55 | 3.82 |
Eric Berger (23.2, AA) - I admit it, I actually like all of the guys on this list. Berger is a 2008 draftee who has performed well enough to make it to Akron by the end of his second season. Berger has had a few control issues, but generally has made up for it by keeping the ball in the park. As with most of these guys, the question is about how his stuff will hold up against higher level hitters. He seems likely to start in Akron, but could certainly be in the Columbus rotation for a substantial part of 2010 if he does well.
| E Berger | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2008 | 38.1 | 3.11 | 2.11 | 7.0 | 28.7 | 51.0 | 22 | 2.63 |
| 2009 | 144.0 | 3.88 | 2.50 | 10.0 | 21.9 | 41.7 | 39 | 3.74 |
Clayton Cook (18.9, rookie) - Cook is different than any of the other guys on the list because he is so young and so low in the system. A 2008 high school draftee, Cook has shown enough in his first two seasons of short-season ball to be interesting, but can't really be considered a legit prospect till he shows his stuff in a full season league, something he'll have the opportunity to do this year in Lake County.
| C Cook | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2008 | 25.0 | 2.95 | 2.52 | 7.8 | 25.4 | 53.8 | 11 | 5.42 |
| 2009 | 67.2 | 3.55 | 2.79 | 9.4 | 23.0 | 43.0 | 27 | 3.46 |
Santo Frias (21.6, high-A) - Ok, Frias probably doesn't deserve to be here. He is probably better grouped among a huge group of interchangeable relievers in the Tribe's sytem. But I have liked Frias ever since he debuted alongside Kelvin De La Cruz, Jeanmar Gomez and Paolo Espino with that 2007 Lake County squad. Plus, he throws hard, with a solid-mid 90s fastball. Now further removed from arm problems that bothered him in late 2007 and 2008, I think he is a sleeper as a strong relief prospect in 2010. That said, right now he is just another arm.
| S Frias | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 56.1 | 5.00 | 2.24 | 5.8 | 24.6 | 30.4 | 26 | 2.20 |
| 2008 | 23.1 | 5.72 | 6.94 | 10.7 | 17.9 | 36.7 | -14 | -4.56 |
| 2009 | 61.2 | 3.94 | 4.38 | 11.8 | 25.5 | 40.0 | 26 | -0.76 |
Connor Graham (23.5, AA) - Added to the list. As I say in the comments, he walks too many guys. If he can improve his control he could be a nice starter. If he can't I see him probably going to the bullpen. I'll be interested to see where the Indians place him in 2010.
| C Graham | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 19.0 | 3.96 | 2.37 | 7.1 | 21.4 | 49.3 | 5 | -0.13 |
| 2008 | 147.1 | 4.27 | 2.26 | 13.5 | 22.4 | 54.6 | 25 | 3.19 |
| 2009 | 118.2 | 4.14 | 3.72 | 12.6 | 24.0 | 51.6 | 36 | 2.55 |
Again, we could throw in countless bullpen arms here. Some of the names you could consider; Marty Popham, Ryan Edell, Brian Grening, CC Lee, Frank Herrmann, Steven Wright, Kyle Landis and Neil Wagner.
Next up: the interesting positional prospects
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Comments
One guy I should have added to this list is Cracker Graham. Graham has a lot of things to like. He has pitched more than 265 innings the past two seasons, he has K-rates solidly over 20%, and GB-rates over 50%. Unfortunately he has had terrible control (BB-rate over 13% the past two seasons), which is a problem. Maybe I will add him…
I’m a big fan of all these guys and I suppose that’s because I’ve never seen them pitch. It’s easy to find guys in the minors with compelling numbers; not as easy to find useful pitchers, I guess.
Espino and Frias are two guys I’ve always had a lot of hope for, for whatever reason.
I like all of these guys, too. What is funny is that these guys all have good numbers, but none of them really have compelling numbers. That is why they are on this list. You may notice that Progress Score (ProS) is figuring prominently in these groupings, wtih all of these guys in the 3-4.5 range, which is largely a reflection of their decent, but not great numbers. I actually think all of these guys are capable, with a strong season, of becoming interesting. I could have put Lofgren in here (ProS = 3.5), but the rule 5 selection saved me the trouble of including the one guy I think is really on the downside of his prospect status.
I think we’re just missing each other’s definitions of compelling. Like Graham-two straight seasons of a GB over 50%? I’m compelled. That feels like something I should pay attention to, know. Same thing with Tomlin’s control or Pino’s NET score.
Ultimately, they’re dragged down by age or other numbers but for lots of them it’s very difficult to know what’s really wrong. I mean, Pino. What are we to not like about him except that clearly there’s something to not like about him that we haven’t seen?
i have nothing to add here, but would like adam, andrew and others to keep talking about these guys so i can read more…
Kyle Landis is a guy I really like-he’s struck out over 10 per 9 IP in his career and he’s stingy on the homeruns. Yeah, he’s got a walks problem but who doesn’t?
Ultimately, I doubt he really throws hard enough and his motion is a little Jenseny for me but I’m curious to see if he can get moving through the system.
i remember his name popping up here and there. i always get more excited about k’s than i get upset about bb’s with these guys.
also, i think it’s remarkable how he’s been able to translate his cycling success to the mound.
We’ve got about 12-15 interesting minor league bullpen arms based on performance. I have no idea how to separate them. I highlighted Santo Frias because he is a personal favorite and I noticed in Tony Lastoria’s instructional league recaps that he was consistently working in the mid-90s with his fastball.
I’ll add a little more…my hopes for all of the above in terms of where they start 2010:
Espino: Akron starting rotation
Tomlin: Columbus rotation (if the Clippers rotation is overcrowded, I’d rather he be a long man in the Columbus bullpen than repeat another partial season in Akron)
Price: Akron rotation
Pino: Columbus rotation
Berger: Akron rotation
Cook: Lake County rotation, though open to a mid-season move to Kinston if he does well
Frias: Akron bullpen, but with an early promotion to Columbus possible
Graham: Akron rotation
I really want Connor Graham to work out as a starter. He strikes guys out even when he sucks.
by fleerdon on Dec 14, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
I’m also happy to read about these guys forever, but what is the realistic over/under for major league victories for these 8 guys? 20? 50? 100? 200? I’m sure the spread of potential outcomes is very broad, but I honestly have no idea where the peak would be.
I’d say the expectation is quite low. These are, after all, fringe guys. Right now they don’t look like really exciting guys. That could change, of course. I think of the guys on this list Cook and Graham probably have the highest theoretical ceiling, but estimating the likelihood of reaching that peak is next to impossible.
…the milkman, the paperboy, evenin’ TV?
by fleerdon on Dec 15, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

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