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Non-tender roundup: Miller and Reyes signed to minor league deals

Vaporstarter Adam Miller and the oft-injured Anthony Reyes were not tendered contracts by the Indians yesterday, rendering them free agents, but both pitchers signed minor league deals with the Indians just hours later.  These transactions remove both pitchers from the 40-man roster while retaining their services for at least one more year.  In the (admittedly unlikely) event Miller's career gets back on track this season, this series of moves avoids using up one of his option years, and should the Indians choose in the next year to restore him to the 40-man roster, he will have at least one option year left and will remain under club control at least through 2016.  Reyes remains optionless, of course, but still hypothetically could remain under club control through 2013.

The Indians also declined to offer a contract to reliever Jose Veras, who was arbitration eligible, rendering him a free agent, and there is no indication he will be re-signed.  Cleveland's 40-man roster now stands at 37, with 18 pitchers and 19 position players.

The Indians did tender a contract to pitcher Rafael Perez, who is eligible for arbitration (and to the other 28 players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible).  The non-non-tender to Perez was non-unexpected, despite a disastrous season in which he was the fourth-worst reliever in the majors (min. 30 IP) per WXRL, which estimates a reliever's actual impact on the chance of his team winning or losing games.  (That's "Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted," if you must know.  BP rates Perez as merely the 10th-worst reliever at preventing runs from scoring, but because he blew more runs than his peers in high-leverage game situations, his negative impact on wins and losses was more substantial.)

Perez spent almost two months in the minors but still qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player with several weeks to spare.  As a relief pitcher coming off a terrible season with barely enough service time to qualify, Perez is in line to be awarded perhaps the smallest salary of any player going to arbitration, probably less than $1 million.  It's worth recalling, at this point, how outstanding Perez was in his truly super two-plus seasons prior to this one.  He had a 2.89 ERA (and 152 ERA+) over 149.1 IP.  He struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings, with 3.7 strikeouts for every walk.  He held lefties to a .241 slugging percentage and allowed them only nine extra-base hits in 249 PA.  As long as we keep tendering him contracts, he remains under club control through 2013, and there is a reasonable chance he will re-emerge as an impact reliever, or at the very least a useful one, at some point in that span.

Other notable non-tenders include former Indians Ryan Garko and Ryan Church.  Garko of course was traded to the Giants only months ago for a decent enough pitching prospect.  Just 115 abysmal AB later, Giants GM Brian Sabean is now saying he doesn't want to pay upwards of $3 million to a guy who isn't really an everyday player.  I'm not saying he's wrong, but it's a pretty hilarious statement to make for a guy who will still owes $83 million to Barry Zito for the next four seasons.  McCovey Chronicles has a pretty dead-on take on Sabean's curious sequence of decisions.  My theory is that you just can't understand how slow this guy is on the basepaths until he's actually on your team, and maybe Wedge actually deked the Giants with respect to Garko's athleticism by playing him in the outfield.

Expect the cleveland.com crowd to clamor for Garko's return, oblivious to the fact that two teams have now deemed him unworthy of an everyday role in the space of just a few months.  Despite high regard for his character, I would be surprised if Shapiro brought him back, even at a substantially reduced salary. I rather expect Garko will be signed by a GM who scouted him as a college player and was impressed with his stroke.  As a lefty batter, Church doesn't really fit in with the Indians' plans.  Other interesting non-tenders include Pirates closer Matt Capps, Yankees sinkerballer Chien-Ming Wang, and third baseman Garrett Atkins.  Atkins is perhaps best remembered as the guy that the Indians never even considered trading Aaron Laffey to get.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians took an interest in Mike MacDougal; they seem to like guys who used to be closers.

Star-divide

As for Miller, these moves were unusual, reflecting an unusual situation.  The "non-tender" deadline traditionally involves only players who are arbitration-eligible, as there is little reason not to tender a contract to any player on the 40-man roster who isn't eligible, since the most the team can be compelled to pay such a player is the minimum salary, which will remain $400,000 for the 2010 season.  Many such players will make less than half that much, if they don't spend much time in the majors.

The latest in Miller's deathless progression of rehab setbacks occurred after rosters were frozen for the Rule 5 draft.  Otherwise, the Indians might have chosen to DFA Miller prior to that point, exposing him to waivers.  That might have cost the Indians the rights to Chuck Lofgren — but then again, maybe not.  The Indians might have protected some other on-the-bubble prospect like Yohan Pino, in which case, Miller's delayed setback actually saved the Indians from burning an option year on whoever-that-would-have-been.  And even if Miller clears waivers (and later, presumably, also clears the Rule 5 draft), he would have been granted minor league free agency anyway, since he was originally signed more than six years ago.

In that sense, non-tendering Miller, while unusual, was actually a more straightforward path to the same destination.  Either way, he ends up as a free agent, free to sign with any club, but this way, he doesn't have to pass through waivers first.  Miller obviously felt some combination of organizational loyalty and faith in the club's ability to rehab him back into a prospect, assuming that's even possible.  Reyes has spent far less time in the Indians organization, but he had the same options as Miller and made the same choice.  If either player was actually worth something anymore, we might consider feeling good about that.

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Plz no Mike MacDougal. I would rather see Sowers in a bullpen role before we sign him.

by Toxicadam on Dec 13, 2009 11:02 PM EST reply actions  

Also, I love the idea of equating Miller to vaporware. He’s like our own personal Duke Nukem Forever.

by Toxicadam on Dec 13, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions  

It will happen……

….really…..

by GoTribe028 on Dec 13, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I would have said Chinese Democracy, but I love that you went with DNF.

"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 14, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Chinese Democracy managed to happen…DNF sadly has not.

by The Grimace on Dec 14, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I am walling to pretend that we are still waiting on Chinese Democracy if you are.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 14, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Depending on the cost, obviously Wang and Capps would be interesting.

BTW Jay, Cleveland.com comment #2. Go get Garko Shapiro.

Also, did you know that Johnny Gomes and Garrett Adkins and play 2nd, 3rd, OF, and 1st in a pinch? Wow…..

….I know pointing out posts from that site can get old, and probably annoying for some….but holy crap.

by GoTribe028 on Dec 13, 2009 11:15 PM EST reply actions  

Go get Garko Shapiro.

If there were a player named Garko Shapiro, I would agree that we should sign him.

Is this the whale section?

by sarcasmdave on Dec 13, 2009 11:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I really thought Tim Dierkes was going to be a long-time poster here.

by afh4 on Dec 14, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

On the same note as Adam Miller feeling some team loyalty, I think Reyes was pretty grateful to the Indians for giving him a shot after St. Louis was ready to dump him any chance they could get. At least if I’m recalling the story correctly.

Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...

by USSChoo on Dec 14, 2009 12:19 AM EST reply actions  

I doubt that’s exactly it. I think Reyes sees a team with no clear rotation stalwarts in 2010 and 2011 and no money to sign C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett or their equivalents next off-season. The only “loyalty” factor is the self-serving (and can you blame him?) factor that he can continue rehabbing with the current medical staff, which he might like, and the bill is picked up by a club.

I’m not calling him a mercenary, but there’s a chance he could go unsigned for a few months if he didn’t immediately re-up with the Indians, and his rehab isn’t going to stop in that time period. It makes sense for both sides. Although a guy with his flyball tendencies fits better in the NL in a big park, but that can just wait until the Indians designated him for assignment next offseason.

by xrickx on Dec 14, 2009 1:03 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m not at all saying that is the reason he did this, I think you misunderstood that. I just think there is at least a little appreciation for the team giving him a shot and wanting to unload him at first sign of injury like the Cards.

Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...

by USSChoo on Dec 14, 2009 2:08 AM EST up reply actions  

But the Cards didn’t ditch him due to injury. The history between the Cards and Reyes is that Duncan wanted Reyes to use the two-seamer and induce groundballs (see Joel Piniero). Reyes prefers to use his 90mph four-seamer on the corners and above the belt. Who’s more correct? It’s too soon to tell, but you have to like what Duncan does with that staff over there.

Reyes, with that (lack of) speed, serves up too many bombs. It works for Carl Pavano, because he has damn good control and a very good changeup. It hasn’t worked for Reyes so far. I won’t make judgment based on his stats last year since he pitched injured. But looking back to prior seasons, even in the minor leagues, it’s clear that Reyes doesn’t have Pavano’s control. And we’ve seen him pitch, albeit pretty briefly, and his changeup (according to fangraphs) has been below average in 2007-2009.

I get what you’re saying, I think. If there’s any appreciation, it’s that the Indians left him rostered rather than designating him for assignment prior to the rule five. They risked loosing interesting or marginally interesting prospects in the rule five who potentially could help in 2010, while Reyes continued to rehab. And they took that risk so they could try and execute the roster maneuver that just worked. I don’t know that Reyes or his agent understand or think about it in those terms. Maybe it’s as simple as “I like it here.” But I have to believe the overwhelming component is “I want to pitch in the Major Leagues. Do I have an opportunity here, and is there a better one out there for me?”

by xrickx on Dec 14, 2009 2:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybe then there is just misinterpretation between what I read when he was acquired and what the truth is.

Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...

by USSChoo on Dec 14, 2009 3:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow, there are 1083 comments in that linked Garko thread. We need to get ourselves together.

by westbrook on Dec 14, 2009 1:41 AM EST reply actions  

oh, and 100 ABs was enough for them to notice the popups.

by westbrook on Dec 14, 2009 1:43 AM EST up reply actions  

And the running, where it literally looks like he isn’t moving.

Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...

by USSChoo on Dec 14, 2009 2:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Buried gem:

I also think that Garko was shown to be not very good in the clutch. How could anyone know that before trading for him? If they had kept him around and he wasn’t very good in the playoffs and pennant race again, that would have been the really bad move.
Which was then treated with the scorn it deserved.

by FredOx on Dec 14, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh please, we still have a 50,000 Garko-comment cushion over those guys.

by dgcambridge on Dec 14, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

maybe Wedge actually deked the Giants with respect to Garko’s athleticism by playing him in the outfield.

LOL

by ken from alexandria on Dec 14, 2009 9:10 AM EST reply actions  

He’s a genius I tell you. A genius.

by Ryan on Dec 14, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Random roster thoughts as I wait for a meeting this morning.

So if I was forced to come up with the Indians 25-man roster based on the current 37 guys on the 40-man, this is (I think) my preferred lineup:

1B: Andy Marte
2B: Luis Valbuena (primarily vs. RHP)
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera
3B: Jhonny Peralta
C: Lou Marson
RF: Shin-Soo Choo
CF: Grady Sizemore
LF: Matt LaPorta
DH: Travis Hafner
backup C: Wyatt Toregas
4th OF: Trevor Crowe
Utility IF: Jason Donald (2B-starter vs. LHP)
25th man: Jordan Brown (1B/DH/OF vs. RHP)

SP1: Jake Westbrook
SP2: Fausto Carmona
SP3: Aaron Laffey
SP4: Justin Masterson
SP5: Jeremy Sowers

Closer: Kerry Wood
Relief: Chris Perez
Relief: Joe Smith
Relief: Tony Sipp
Relief: Rafael Perez
Relief: Jess Todd
Relief: Hector Ambriz

This leaves Michael Brantley to start the season in Columbus along with Chris Gimenez. It puts Rondon, Carrasco and Huff all in the Columbus starting rotation at the beginning of the season. And it leaves Jensen Lewis out of the picture. That would give us a decent, though probably not great by any stretch, offense. Pretty good defensive infield, I would think, and an ok defensive outfield. If they can throw strikes, I’d expect to be happy with the bullpen. But then the starting rotation is just a huge set of question marks, top to bottom.

by APV on Dec 14, 2009 9:54 AM EST reply actions  

Pretty much with you here especially with Marte where I would again say “You are not a contender, you can afford to give him damn near a full year to figure out if you have anything!”.
I might keep Huff up, move Sowers to the pen and put Todd back in the oven for a bit longer.

by stuart dean on Dec 14, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Biggest problem here is only one backup infielder, although Marte and Peralta can slide back to 3B and SS respectively in a pinch. Still, very limited versatility here.

by Jay on Dec 14, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Potential infielders (from most to least versatility):

Cabrera
Valbuena
Donald
Peralta
Marte
Brown

I think having 5 guys who can play some combination of 3B/SS/2B is enough, don’t you?

by APV on Dec 14, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

The issue, of course, is having only three guys who can play SS and 2B. Once one of them is out of the game, you are done making moves.

by Jay on Dec 14, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Are we really at a place where we don’t think JP can play SS at all?

I mean, a season ago he was the incumbent played 146 games there and he’s only 28 (which shocks me every time I look that up).

by afh4 on Dec 14, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Ah, you’re right. I guess it’s just weird having three guys who can play SS, three guys who can play 2B, three guys who can play 3B … and those are three different lists of three guys.

by Jay on Dec 14, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Did you know JP OPSed .805 in 2008?

His career arc just baffles me. I always get confused by it. I have no idea how old he is, I never think he was as bad as he was last year (.690??) or that he was actually quite good in 2008.

by afh4 on Dec 14, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

I would guess that the Indians would want a swing man given how iffy (and I’m being kind) the rotation looks. That would move Sowers to the bullpen (replacing Jess Todd) and Carrasco into the rotation.

LaPorta might not ready right away, so that would mean Brantley in left instead. You could then send Crowe down (with Brantley the backup center fielder) and go with another infielder if need be.

But it’s way early.

by Ryan on Dec 14, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Why Carrasco into the rotation instead of Huff?

"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay

by woodsmeister on Dec 14, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Huff needs more work in the minors that Carrasco, but you could substitute one for the other.

by Ryan on Dec 14, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel like they both need to work on their fastball. I think Carrasco more than Huff, but Carrasco’s secondary stuff seems better.

by APV on Dec 14, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Swing man in Adam’s scenario: Ambriz.

by westbrook on Dec 14, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I completely agree with everything except I’d flip Huff and Masterson (I’m sticking to this even though y’all have tried to talk me out of it) and I am not sure how I feel about Jordan Brown being on the 25.

by westbrook on Dec 14, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

On a related note, something I’ve been thinking and will probably write more about later in the offseason but would welcome feedback on now…

Most people have already dismissed 2010 for Cleveland. But it seems to me that looking at the names above there likely is not going to be a huge roster turnover between 2010 and 2011. So that suggests to me two views:

  1. If you think the Indians will be good in 2011, you should think they have a decent chance in 2010, or…
  2. If you think the Indians will be terrible in 2010, you should expect them to be pretty bad in 2011 too…

Thoughts?

by APV on Dec 14, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure, I’d like to see that. Two quick comments, first, is there some hope that a real addition can be made from outside the organization in 2011, as opposed to 2010?

And second, I think the hope that we have is largely based upon our talent being almost entirely on the “rising” side of the age-performance curve. So even though the roster will be the same, the hope is that the overall performance takes a signficant jump in a year.

by dgcambridge on Dec 14, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

If you think the Indians will be terrible in 2010, you should expect them to be pretty bad in 2011 too…

by JulioBernazard on Dec 14, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I have quietly been thinking to myself that this team could contend almost entirely on the basis of the bullpen. And no I’m not kidding. There are clearly multiple arms that have the potential to absolutely dominate in the ‘pen: Perez, Perez, Sipp, Todd and Wood. On top of that there’s Joe Smith.

I don’t have to try very hard to see this being a team with a lights-out bullpen, an average offense, and a below average rotation. That’s no great shakes but it might be enough in this division.

Realistically, they probably need two of the starters to pitch at something like a 3.90 rate but that doesn’t seem nuts to me either.

I dunno. Maybe I’m an idiot.

by afh4 on Dec 14, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought our bullpen was going to be solidly above average last year, so I know I’m an idiot. But to me it seems to come down almost entirely to how our starting rotation shakes out. And that is mainly a giant ball of uncertainty. Any reasonable expectation for it has to be low, but a really good projection certainly isn’t out of the range of possibilities.

by APV on Dec 14, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I will never, ever be optimistic for a bullpen after 2008.

"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 15, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Whichever

"You are an LGT success story" -- Jay

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 15, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think I’ll ever get over Macho Grande

by APV on Dec 15, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I will never, ever be optimistic for a bullpen after 2008.

Fixed.

Wait 'til next millennium!

by emd2k3 on Dec 15, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

My impression the whole time is that if things break right for us in 2010 (meaning we get some performance from the SP) we have a real shot at winning the division even this year.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 14, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m more in category #2, and I look at 2012-2014 as more the meat of the next wave of contention.

The way we get further than expected in 2011 is by using 2010 to figure out which of that long list of pitchers is capable of being a quality major leaguer. Basically, some of those guys who seem like 5.50 ERA guys have to emerge as more like 4.20 ERA guys.

At the same time, I believe our lineup has the potential to be exceptional by 2011, as Asdrubal, Valbuena and Santana come into their own.

by Jay on Dec 14, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it’s more Meats Of Waves.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I think … I think I’ve never watched a team with so many potential pitchers before. If they start destroying people, well … I go to war, you’re liable to see something new.

The real question, for me — if we’re in the hunt for the division, and some or all of the three tradeables — Westbrook, Peralta, Wood — are producing, do we flip those guys anyway, massively stocking up for 2012+? Or are we done with that till Grady turns down the 2011 extension offer?

by fleerdon on Dec 14, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

if we’re in the hunt for the division, and some or all of the three tradeables — Westbrook, Peralta, Wood — are producing, do we flip those guys anyway

I say no, but I’m kinda biased on 33% of your list.

by westbrook on Dec 14, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

This is exactly where I am, but I lean towards #1.

The offense will be solid, I think, even with LaPorta starting slow and Santana getting his feet wet. With a healthy Sizemore and solid Cabrera, better showing from Peralta, and Choo, we have the makings of a pretty dynamic offense, and if Valbuena and Hafner perform, we could get more extra bases than we expect.

I don’t have to look too hard to see the starting rotation as average, especially if we get good infield defense. Masterson, Westbrook, Laffey, and Carmona are all probably going to be in the rotation, and if they stay healthy, could all be league average provided the defense is good. Huff’s numbers in Buffalo and Akron two years ago were just too good for him to not be at least an average pitcher, and I look for a better showing from him this year.

No Indians fan (or front office employee) will have any credibility in predicting the performance of a bullpen, but the pieces are certainly there to have a solid one, provided we keep Wood in the closer role.

by bewwolv on Dec 14, 2009 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

especially if we get good infield defense

Once again I’m at a loss to judge defense. If you told me we had Peralta, Cabrera, Valbuena and Marte out there – I’d say that is a pretty good defensive infield. Not exceptional, but above average. And yet if you look at their UZR scores from this past season on fangraphs, every single one of them is decidedly negative. Fangraphs data basically suggests we had terrible infield defense last season.

This prompted me to start looking at our pitchers, to see if they were really severely effected by our supposedly terrible infield defense. To do this I started comparing how our pitchers fared given their ball-in-play tendencies relative to the Phillies pitchers, who supposedly had a very good infield defense behind them (Utley, Feliz, Rollins). And at least on first passing, I found no striking difference between the two. So who knows?

As for next year, again, who knows?

by APV on Dec 14, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

For what it’s worth, I am still wary of UZR

by Roger Dorn on Dec 14, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions  

It definitely seems to fluctuate wildly year to year. I always want to think it reflects a unit (as in Cabrera’s UZR is good, therefore Peralta and Valbuena’s is bad), but it doesn’t. Then I think that the Indians as a team do badly because of our pitchers BIP tendencies, but I have no idea if that is the case.

by APV on Dec 14, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I just can’t put all of my faith in a single defensive number. It is not and never will be as clear cut as offensive numbers. UZR seems to be cited as gospel elsewhere. I should spend some time looking into how it is calculated because it remains murky for me.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 14, 2009 11:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The fact that it fluctuates doesn’t make it a bad metric, though. It may simply be the defensive play results fluctuate a lot from year to year, and defensive performance fluctuates a little more than we might imagine.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 2:22 AM EST up reply actions  

It’s not that it fluctuates that bothers me. It’s that I have a hard time figuring out what influences it outside basic defensive ability.

by APV on Dec 15, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Bounces. Positioning. A few feet one way or the other on the exact trajectory of balls. Essentially, luck. Seeing-eye fliners.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Ah yes, the dreaded fliner.

Wait 'til next millennium!

by emd2k3 on Dec 15, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

The problem is all of the potential starters (maybe with the exception of Laffey) has a particular serious obstacle to overcome. Masterson has to adjust to starting, Carmona has to the throw strikes, Westbrook has to come back from almost a two year layoff. And then there’s the kids. I think the offense will be at least league-average, but the rotation is going to drag everything down.

But I think in 2 or 3 years the Indians could have a very good and deep rotation, especially if either Knapp or Hagadone (the two high-ceiling guys) pans out. Even if you figure that Westbrook is gone after 2010, the Indians have everyone else in the rotation under control for the next 4 years. There isn’t going to be the drip-drop of losing a pitcher to free agency each season, as long as you can afford the arbitration or arb-equivalent contract.

by Ryan on Dec 14, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know what to expect from Carmona, and expecting Westbrook to even be average is a stretch, true. They would both certainly be assisted by good infield defense, however, to the point that they could not pitch all that well and still be close to league average.

I would rather not see Rondon in Cleveland anytime soon, as he has issues to work out, but as APV noted above, the distance between Carrasco and Huff is not that much. Heck, if they stash Sowers and Ambriz in the ’pen, it is not that unreasonable to expect them to fill in and do a not-terrible job.

Ugh. I am having a hard time making the optimistic case, as its not an easy case to make, but I think we could all be pleasantly surprised. Particularly if the infield defense is good and the offense is above average, which is probably the best bet (the offense) going forward.

by bewwolv on Dec 14, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions  

What issues are you referring to with Rondon?

by dgcambridge on Dec 15, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

The development of a legitimate secondary pitch. His fastball is for real, but he needs another legit pitch.

by bewwolv on Dec 15, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

i thought his slider was his best pitch?

by APV on Dec 15, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Most of what I have read, and from what I saw the only time that I have seen him, is that his fastball is a major league offering. He had guys swinging and missing at it all night when I saw him, which backed up what I had read.

The problem was anytime he threw anything offspeed, and I am not good enough to know what he was throwing, just that it was offspeed, it got hammered, or he couldn’t keep it in the zone. This also supports what I have read, that his changeup and slider are average as currently constructed.

All that said, I could be wrong.

by bewwolv on Dec 15, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Taken from Lastoria’s webpage (with a grain of salt):

Rondon loves to compete with the fastball on the plate almost too much, so the Indians have challenged him to throw more changeups and use his secondary pitches more. He is also continuing to work on solidifying his delivery since he tends to get a little sloppy at times with it.

by bewwolv on Dec 15, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I might have no idea what I’m talking about either. I remember watching him in the Futures game and noticing how nasty his slider looked, but I’m also not a scout in any way shape or form.

by APV on Dec 15, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think Masterson has to do much adjusting. The Indians handed him a spot in the rotation after he was acquired and he didn’t turn himself into a joke. Justin really shined in his final start against the White Sox, in which he had his best control since being an Indian.

He goes into the offseason and into next year with the knowledge that he will be a starter for this team next year and as far as the mental aspect, to me thats huge. He never had that in Boston. He was brought up really quickly, and pretty much did anything and everything they could ask of him outside of closing, and he did a solid job.

He has work to do, just like the rest of the starters. He has to cut down on the walks. With that delievery and arm slot, the movement he gets on his pitches just may not allow for much improvement there.

Still, I feel he could be better than some feel he can be, and much sooner rather than later. I just like what I saw from him as a starter at the tail end of 2009, and he quickly became one of my favorite new Indians, so it’s probably just bias on my part, but just my opinions none the less,

by GoTribe028 on Dec 15, 2009 8:26 AM EST up reply actions  

The rotation, as currently constructed, scares me. It’ll impact the bullpen severely. 70-92 would be a good finish for this bunch.

by JulioBernazard on Dec 15, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Again, underestimating the offense.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

The rotation is ugly. Very ugly.

by JulioBernazard on Dec 15, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Huff looks okay without the mustache.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Huff looks okay without the mustache.

by APV on Dec 15, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Huff looks okay without the mustache like something other than a major leage SP.

by JulioBernazard on Dec 15, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Huff looks knows it is okay without the mustache now that Wedge has left

by stuart dean on Dec 16, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

It’ll impact the bullpen severely.

This seems like a legitimate concern. Carmona has to be able to throw some strikes. Should Sowers be in the rotation, he needs to be able to get out of the 5th inning. And it would really be great if Westbrook comes out of spring training fully healthy.

by APV on Dec 15, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

It doesn’t scare me. Much. It might be below average in the top two, but the bottom three might not far off the top three and have potential to be above average for their spots. Plus, we have depth. Shapiro should look now at reclamation projects, because he’s good at those, but really just hold on until June and then look to augment the rotation only if we are competitive. I do wish we had one dependable on base guy with a little power on the team, like a circa 2008 Abreu or a 2004-07 Pronk, on the roster.

by MTF on Dec 15, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Everybody seems pretty content with the offense. I think in order to be league-average they’re going to have to see improvements from Hafner and Peralta, and health from LaPorta and Sizemore, and nobody else falling off the log.

by odradek on Dec 15, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

No. They are already league average, and they guys they traded didn’t make that big of an impact by the time 2009 was all done and added up.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 2:24 AM EST up reply actions  

You should look at the numbers before you make these sorts of assertions. The Tribe was 12th in the majors in runs scored for 2009—which is league average—but 22nd in runs scored after the All Star break. That is not league average. I’d say the players traded away did make an impact (the Indians were sixth in the majors in runs scored before the ASB), and the team as it is currently constructed does not have a good offense.

by odradek on Dec 15, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Tribe was brutal all-around after the ASB.

by JulioBernazard on Dec 15, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly. The Indians scored 129 fewer runs in the second half than they did in the first half. Second-half runs created for three guys we gave up:

Martinez 47
Garko    17
DeRosa   28

Second half runs created for three guys we kept:

Shoppach 17
Marte    18
Carroll  21

by FredOx on Dec 15, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

And, to a lesser degree Christ Gimenez (7 RC)

"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay

by woodsmeister on Dec 15, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Actually, I calculated only 3, but I guess it depends on what version of the RC stat you use. Gimenez is a rounding error.

by FredOx on Dec 15, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I looked it up on B-Ref.

"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay

by woodsmeister on Dec 15, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I know he’s versatile and all, but he’s got a long way to go to be Christ Gimenez/Giminez.

Wait 'til next millennium!

by emd2k3 on Dec 15, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

i think it’s more “Oh Christ, Gimenez”

by Brick. on Dec 15, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

We talked last season about how the Indians feel that September reps aren’t the same as August reps. I think many of us would agree that for the 2009 Indians, September started no later than August 1. The club had been out of the race for 2.5 months already at that point, and management had traded two of the team’s three best players off of the 2010 roster.

It’s not exactly a surprise that Martinez, in the heat of a pennant race, outperformed Shoppach, who’d be out of the race for months and was publicly bitter about the team’s situation and Shapiro’s moves.

The lineup is going to be markedly better in 2010 than we saw in August and September. Who wants to make a wager?

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Especially considering how much time Shoppach was spending, inexplicably, playing dominoes.

"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay

by woodsmeister on Dec 15, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Wager me this, Batman: Will the 2010 Indians score more runs than the 2009 Indians?

by odradek on Dec 15, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes.

LaPorta will be healthy and playing everyday (at least by the end of May). I believe Marson will be an improvement on the 2nd half of Shoppach. Choo continues to progress, as does Valbuena and (to a lesser extent) Asdrubal. I think the offense starts off slow, but steadily improves as guys continue to mature and grow into their roles. Remember how Wedgie traipsed out players I’d rather not even think about for the last two months? The team gave up on management and gave up on themselves. This team cratered in August. I believe its a slow – but steady – climb going forward.

I just wanted to believe.

by mjmarble on Dec 16, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

And, wait: Shoppach didn’t hit because he was bitter?

by odradek on Dec 15, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Shoppach didn’t hit because he sucked. A lot.

Wait 'til next millennium!

by emd2k3 on Dec 15, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not going to try to estimate hitter-by-hitter, but are you really going to try to tell me that the team didn’t basically phone in the last 50 games?

Plus all the playing time given to guys like Gimenez, Toregas, Niuman freakin’ Romero?

Yes, we’re going to score more runs this year.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ll take that wager. That’s a bet I’d feel good about losing. What are you willing to stake?

by odradek on Dec 16, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Let me think about it.

by Jay on Dec 16, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

How about I buy you an Indians hat of your choice if the Tribe scores more than 773 runs? And you buy one for me if they score 773 or fewer?

by odradek on Dec 16, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m not involved, but this seems like a good wager.

by Brad D on Dec 16, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

How about if I win, you take a class on statistics, and if you win, I read a book on epistomology?

by Jay on Dec 16, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

A class in statistics would kill me (maybe that’s the point). Do I have to enroll in the University of Chicago?

by odradek on Dec 16, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

No, you have to meet me once a week while I use my ten year old AP Stats knowledge to review chi-squared tests with you.

This is going to be awesome.

by afh4 on Dec 16, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Brad teaches stats, we could set up some online lectures.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 16, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Can I listen to my i-Pod while you’re talking?

by odradek on Dec 16, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Only one headphone.

by afh4 on Dec 16, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

you can, however, be logged onto LGTFML.com during class

by APV on Dec 16, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Too rich for your blood?

by Jay on Dec 16, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Let’s put it this way: You’ll have more fun reading David Hume than I will learning about mean square weighted deviation. That stuff is boring.

But every time the Tribe neglects to pick up a runner on third with less than two outs, I will breathe a sigh of relief.

by odradek on Dec 16, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe to even it out you have to read The Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding while standing on one foot.

by odradek on Dec 16, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions  

All I know is, you guys need to come to terms on SOME kind of bet. This is the most interesting part of the offseason so far and has a chance of being the most interesting subplot of the 2010 season.

by NickFantana on Dec 16, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I bet Avatar is going to suck.

It will make money, but it looks like a CF of epic proportions.

Wait 'til next millennium!

by emd2k3 on Dec 17, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Sadly, I misread this as episiotomy ….

by talonk on Dec 18, 2009 12:50 AM EST up reply actions  

That was pleasant reading.

by odradek on Dec 18, 2009 1:05 AM EST up reply actions  

That’s a bet I’d feel good about losing

The true nature of a pessimist. When they are right, they are a genius. When they are wrong, it benefits them.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 16, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

You could say such is the wisdom of pessimism.

by odradek on Dec 16, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s an interesting choice of posture. I personally prefer to bet with my happiness rather than against it, but to each his own.

by Jay on Dec 16, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually think it’s perfectly reasonable since a pessimist in sports will be right more often than he is wrong. It just feels a little cheap to me.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 16, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

My tax prof, senor year: “Wake up assuming you’ll get shafted, and the nine times out of ten that you’re right, you won’t be surprised.”

by fleerdon on Dec 16, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

In the word’s of my best friend’s father, “Never get excited about anything. Ever.”

Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...

by USSChoo on Dec 17, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Couldn’t agree more. Granted I’m fair weather Buckeyes, but when I heard that OSU was -14.5 favorites in Ann Arbor (under the sweater vest), I waited about 5 seconds before wagering $200 on Michigan.

Michigan had 5 turnovers if memory serves, OSU had several chances to pad the lead, but Tressel was having none of it. Easiest money I’ve ever made.

by cheech99 on Dec 17, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I picture you and chuck, sitting in a smoking room somewhere, sipping on some scotch and with a couple Cuban cigars ….

by talonk on Dec 18, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Real Clevelanders hide their Macallan 25 in Schenley “El Guapo” whiskey bottles.

by odradek on Dec 18, 2009 1:12 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I had no idea Carroll was so close to DeRosa

by MTF on Dec 15, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions  

he’s the soft tossing lefty of flexible position players.

by Brick. on Dec 15, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

am i forgetting someone? we’re talking about victor and garko, right? victor and garko are the difference between 12th and 22nd?

by Brick. on Dec 15, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

this is the point i was making.

by Brick. on Dec 15, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

He wasn’t exactly tearing it up before they shut him down. He was pretty good when he came off the DL, for a while.

by odradek on Dec 15, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

But he got shut down.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Atkins is perhaps best remembered as the guy that the Indians never even considered trading Aaron Laffey to get.

This actually made me laugh out loud.

"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay

by woodsmeister on Dec 14, 2009 10:03 AM EST reply actions  

Wasn’t Laffey just the starting point to get Atkins?

by Roger Dorn on Dec 14, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I can’t for the life of my find that fanpost. I wanted to re-live some of it.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 14, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

I think he really wanted to see the sequel.

by Jay on Dec 15, 2009 2:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I did want to see the sequel, but I also forgot about The Professor in the first thread which was a good laugh.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 15, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Man, was that ever a smackdown.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 15, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m amused once again by my Freudian slip typo calling Bruce Drennan a “median chucklehead” instead of a “media chucklehead.”

"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay

by woodsmeister on Dec 15, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Same difference.

Wait 'til next millennium!

by emd2k3 on Dec 15, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Ahhh, the good old days when I actually posted regularly ….

by talonk on Dec 15, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions  

@Greg (since I can’t ever seem to “reply” at work anymore, me too, I let out a brief guffaw over that too.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Dec 14, 2009 10:10 AM EST reply actions  

Remember when Wang and Carmona were pretty awesome?

I’d take a run at Capps or Mac the 9th, if they’re cheap enough.

by JulioBernazard on Dec 14, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions  

Vaporstarter

Nice.

by Ryan on Dec 14, 2009 10:05 PM EST reply actions  

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