Indians or The Field?
by afh4 on Dec 29, 2009 7:20 PM EST
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PrintWith Jason Bay headed to Queens, the list of available free agents is slowly shrinking. The 2010 Indians don't look to be a knock-em'-out-the-box-Rick kind of squad. If, for just the 2010 season, you could choose from either a lineup composed of the remaining free agents or the Indians, who you got? I'll be using Bill James' projections (because they're freely available) so whenever I reference them, you can find them with our friends at FanGraphs.
Cleveland LF-Michael Brantley: The Indians seem to really, really like Brantley and with good reason. James has Brantley at a .677 OPS. On first blush, that seemed a little pessimistic to me but Brantley only spat out a .707 OPS last season (I guess it just felt better). I think he'll get to .700 again but it'd be both thrilling and somewhat unlikely to watch him go much higher. He can run like the devil, though.
Free Agent LF-Matt Holliday: Projected to a .922 OPS.
Verdict: On a one year basis, you take Holliday and call it a day. I think there's a decent chance Brantley is more valuable, cost considered, over the life of Holliday's contract, though. It'd help if Brantley was actually considered a good defender. In the tense "wRAA" (that's Runs Above Average based on wOBA) battle, it's Holliday by a score of 37.2 to -4.9. Oof.
Cleveland CF-Grady Sizemore: If Grady returns full strength in 2010 that will be a very good thing. Grady's an .850 OPS guy with some upside left. He's a good, if perhaps not great, defender and he's the best player in Cleveland now that, ahem, everyone else is gone.
Free Agent CF-Marlon Byrd: Marlon Byrd has had an interesting career. He couldn't hit at all early in his career, despite being a very good minor league hitter for his position. He's just sort of Little Engine That Could'd his way into a career, if at the end of the story the Little Engine figured out he could go play in Texas. In 2008 it looked like he'd made real strides, with a career high in BB% (10.2) and a career low in K% (15.4). He gave all that back in '09, though, posting a career low in BB% (5.5). His numbers stayed alright, propped up by an absolute power explosion (65 XBH's in '08 vs. his previous career high of 42 in '08). All of this is a circuitous way of saying hitting a baseball must be hard and confusing. To the point, Marlon Byrd has a career .820 OPS as a Ranger and .701 everywhere else. He's also going to be 32 this year.
Verdict: Despite the sudden interest I've apparently developed in Marlon Byrd, it's Grady going away. Grady's better at basically everything and much younger. By wRAA it's 21.8 to 2.9, Sizemore.
Cleveland RF-Shin-Soo Choo: Bask in it: Joe
Sheehan said he though Choo would get at least one vote in the AL MVP race this year. James thinks Choo is going to take a step back (.850 OPS, losing 20 points off of his SLG) despite having two monster years in a row. I'm not going to bet against Choo, ev
er. He did that thing where he hit the wall on purpose in Spring Training, or whatever.
Free Agent RF-Jack Cust: I'm putting Cust in here but neither he nor any of the other viable candidates (Dye, Randy Winn, Vlad, Nady, Gomes) can really play RF. Cust has hit at least 25 runs in each of the last three seasons and James projects him to do that again. He's a nice little player if you can hide him at DH or something, I guess.
Verdict: Choo and then Choo again. Choo over all of the available candidates, combined. He's sitting at 23.6 wRAA and Cust is at 20.7 wRAA but I'm going to dock Cust, let's say 10 runs because of my idiotic plan to play him every day in RF.
Cleveland 3B-Jhonny Peralta: The JP story is well told. Pencil him in for a 15 homeruns and a lot of frustration.
Free Agent 3B-Adrian Beltre: I almost went with Miguel Tejada here but Beltre is supposed to be a supernatural defender or whatever. This is a race we might get to follow closely as Sheehan, in the same chat linked above, made the point that Beltre is a pretty liekly candidate for Minnesota: they need a 3B, he can defend, voila! Gardenhire is happy.
Verdict: I never thought I'd quit on Jhonny but I'm pretty much there. Take Beltre and save yourself the headache. wRAA projections actually put Jhonny ahead (1.6 to 0.0) in a race of negligible assets but Beltre's got the glove. I'll give him 5 runs for that.
Cleveland SS-Asdrubal Cabrera: Everybody likes Asdrubal. If you don't, you're an idiot. He OPSed .799 last year as a 23 year old. He is ten months older that Matt LaPorta. His 2009 was a dead-ringer for Alomar's age 23 season: exact same OPS+ and everything.
Free Agent SS-Miguel Tejada: Is Tejada actually a servicable SS? I have no idea. I can't trust the fact that Ed Wade let's him play there any more than I can trust Ed Wade to value relievers. Tejada has been hitting for a really long time and I guess he's got an outside shot at some big longevity numbers if he stays in the NL-he's only a couple of seasons short of 2,500 hits and he's a lock to get over 300 homeruns. I had kind of assumed he'd gone to die in Baltimore but hope springs eternal in the world of Miguel Tejada.
Verdict: I'm just going to assume Tejada's a butcher out there. You've got to take the 24 year old over the 35 year old when they're projected for vaguely similar numbers. Cabrera wins the wRAA showdown, 8.3 to 6.2.
Cleveland 2B-Luis Valbuena: I'm guessing LV's going to get most the run at second this year, though we might end up seeing him platooned a lot and we also might just see a lot of Jason Donald, platoon or not. I still like Valbuena a lot, despite the underwhelming '09 numbers: he didn't walk at all in the majors, which was weird because he's always walked in the minors. Anyway, James doesn't hate him, which sort of surprises me; he's got Luis at a shiny .722 OPS, which is nice to see.
Free Agent 2B-Orlando Hudson: A year ago it seemed like Hudson was going to be a FA prize and then the market cooled on him. He didn't do a lot of help in his single year in LA, posting his first sub .800 OPS since 2005. He should probably just sign back with Arizona. The dry heat was working for him.
Verdict: Hudson. Valbuena's status is shaky, to say the least, and I think it's unlikely that he (or even the combined Indians' 2B line) outperforms Hudson's cagey veteranness. Hudsons' got the wRAA 4.2 to -3.4.
Cleveland 1B-Matt LaPorta: I think this is how it's going to play out. The whole gang seems to like Brantley too much to send him back to Columbus, nobody ever liked that Andy guy anyway, and LaPorta's glove isn't exactly insisting he be forced to play LF (although it doesnt' look like it's nearly as bad as we were told. Then again, we watched the ghost of Trot Nixon play the outfield). LaPorta needs to flash some serious bat and James says he'll make an effort, with 20 HRs and 29 2Bs.
Free Agent 1B-Carlos Delgado: Delgado can hit, period. Before last season, he'd been remarkably healthy in the twilight of his career: he's had at least 500 ABs in every year since 1997, excepting 2004 and 2009. He'll have a little extra motivation this season as he's 27 homeruns short of 500. Sidetrack: is this guy a hall of famer? He's sort of 50/50 on all of the B-Ref HOF trackers; if I had a vote I guess I'd probably cast it for Delgado out of spite towards Jim Rice supporters.
Verdict: Delgado is probably going to have a better year. wRAA projections agree: 14.2 to 7.4. I think this one is as close to a push as any spot on the list; I'll be interested to see LaPorta's breakout percentiles from BPro. He's got to have a decent shot at exploding.
Cleveland C-Lou Marson: Cleveland's catching situation is decidedly unsettled. There are plenty of candidates, including a very well regarded one looming in the background. Marson is probably going to get on base quite a bit, look of purposefully in the direction of Grady's Ladies, and eventually give way to the best young catcher in all of baseball. Then, he'll either be a sweet backup or be traded for a damaged goods starting pitcher that confuses everybody. Kidding, Mark! Love ya, big guy!
Free Agent C-Bengie Molina: I need to purge after looking at the available free agent catchers list: Brad Ausmus, Paul Bako, Rod Barajas, Michael Barrett, Toby Hall, Jose Molina, ugh. There must be no need for catchers this year if this was the group and no one bit on Shoppach.
Verdict: I'd take Marson even if he is going to give way to a guy who was going to hit 20 homeruns in the second half. wRAA says Marson, 0.7 to -8.6.
Indians DH-Travis Hafner: James thinks Hafner will take another step forward performance wise (.880 OPS) but will stay on the shelf just as much. Whatever.
Free Agent DH-Jim Thome: It's tough to get a gig as a DH these days. Thome raked last season, again, to the tune of an .850ish OPS. I'm not sure where he'll end up but...
Verdict: He'll be more valuable than Hafner just on the basis of time served. He tops Hafner in wRAA, 20.6 to 14.9.
Overall: Let's get the numbers out of the way: the Indians are projected at about 70 wRAA as a team next season. If I've got this right, this means they'll be 70 runs better than a lineup composed of 9 perfectly average players. The FA squad grades out at 92.4 wRAA.
I docked Cust already for his defense but the entire FA squad looks to be pretty miserable defensively, outside of Beltre. So, in this totally pointless exercise, I'd say it's a wash. The Indians' lineup, as composed above, is probably about as good as an imaginary lineup that plays for an imaginary team with an unlimited budget. The Indians one is cheaper, though.
Would you trade any of the Tribe's position players, straight up, for the available free agents, cost considered? Did I miss any free agents that would've been better selections?
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Felipe Lopez should probably be in the discussion at second base. Say what you want about his defense, but the same is now said about Hudson (at least according to UZR). He gets lost in the shuffle since he seems to wear out his welcome pretty easily, but he’s a nice bet on a short-term deal.
He does look like a catcher, no denying it. Mostly because I want Dave Cameron eating crow within the year, but also because I think we’re over-estimating Santana just a little bit. I mean, we all want him to be a star ahoramente, but he could take all year and some of 2011 to get settled in and still be pretty much on schedule, no?
I’ve also started to become a fan of the true two-catcher approach. I think the Victor-Kelly may have shown that there’s some value in having native speakers of each language back there, and that regular rest does a catcher’s bat good. I get that everybody wants Santana starting EVERY GAME RIGHT NOW ALL THE GAMES ARG ARG ARG ARG but what if using two catchers regularly can make the team better?
by fleerdon on Dec 29, 2009 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, the Santana buzz among the 6 of us who frequent this board in late December is probably too high. I mean that sincerely.
I agree with you on Cameron.
I think Marson is better than anybody outside of a few proponents on this board have noticed. Catchers are great assets. Or so I used to think.
Not just us, but the press corps incessantly nagging on Acta and Shapiro about Santana making the 25-man out of spring training. For all Santana’s accomplishments, it’s still just AA, y’know?
by fleerdon on Dec 29, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
I would agree with this whole thread, but I just wrote a whole piece set to go up tomorrow praising Santana. I think he is the real deal. This in no way makes me think less of Marson, though. He is a solid catcher who has shown the ability to not get out. Sure it would be great if he also had power (like Santana), but for the time being Marson looks alright to me. You’ll see this tomorrow (and if you’ve been keeping track you may have noticed already), but progress score ranks Marson 4th among our positional prospects, ahead of both Chisenhall and LaPorta.
Well, Marson’s a few months younger than Santana; half a year younger than LaPorta. Hard to argue with his rate of advancement.
by fleerdon on Dec 30, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Marson kind of reminds me of another Indians catching prospect from the late 80’s/early 90’s – Jesse Levis. Going from memory, good batting average, draws some walks, little or no power. Checking the numbers, that’s mostly right, but Marson is performing slightly better (more walks), and doing it at the same level a year younger. Levis was 23 when he got established at AA, 24 at AAA, Marson was 22 at AA, 23 at AAA.
I have no idea how good or bad Levis’ defense was, but if it wasn’t bad I’m a little surprised he didn’t have more of a major league career than he did.
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 30, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
You know, it’s a confusing comp because Levis’ stats are largely partial (at least on b-ref) but, still. This is why I love LGT: where else is somebody going to draw the Jesse Levis-Lou Marson parallel?
Levis big failing in the majors was that he lacked so much pop as to be unplayable. In 1996 his OBP/SLG was .348/.283. Yech.
Jessie Levis threw out Ricky Henderson trying to steal second in Oakland. I was there, Ricky didn’t slide. It was the late 80’s , or 1990.
Considering Ricky was thrown out over 330 times, including 42 in his record year, I’m gonna say “meh.”
Also of note, Grady has 130 career steals to 39 CS. In 1982, Ricky had 130 SB to 42 CS. What am I trying to say, you ask? Nothing, just thought it was interesting.
Also! Levis didn’t make it to the bigs until ‘92.. so if it was 92 that you saw this in, then Ricky’s split was 48/11. I was bored.
Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...
You’re saying, Grady is a slightly more effective base stealer than Rickey, just not as prolific.
by Jay on Jan 1, 2010 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
Actually, he worked out to slightly less efficient overall, but still pretty good. Almost 3.5 SB/CS. Ricky consistently hit over 4 per. I found it quite interesting though, that to achieve his record year, Ricky’s efficiency actually dropped to just barely above 3. And of course, is way more prolific.
Welcome back, Sandy! ATALECG...
Try applying the NetSB formula: SB – 2*CS
That will give you a more meaningful assessment of how productive the players were.
by Jay on Jan 2, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Victor-Kelly may have shown that there’s some value in having native speakers of each language back there, and that regular rest does a catcher’s bat good.
Exactly how did they demonstrate this value?
By having back-to-back Cy Young winners, both of whom were native English speakers?
By having a string of successful third-tier free agent signings, all of whom were native English speakers?
By Fausto Carmona’s one-season success?
By the bullpen?
I guess it would be doubly tough to back any of this up statistically, both because tying pitchers’ performances to their receiver is difficult to begin with, and because Victor’s English is pretty good. I referred to anecdotal evidence — interviews with the staff and so on — and you’ll be rightfully dismissive of that. The team has publicly discussed its concerns about Santana’s English, though. Maybe the language issue would be more important on next year’s roster than it has been previously.
I’ll leave it at what I think I know: Creating a more significant back-up catcher role worked because Victor plays a good first base, and because Kelly can actually hit. My impression was that they reaped some in-game benefits, both by getting Kelly more playing time and by keeping Victor fresher. Whether that means it’s a desirable, or even a feasible, arrangement for the future teams, I’m not sure. But I’m curious.
by fleerdon on Dec 30, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions
Tyler, I think this is a rare case where you are totally imagining something. They never used Shoppach to keep Victor more fresh. Shoppach rode the pine relentlessly until June 2008, when Victor went on the DL for a few months. After that season, they would have traded Shoppach if they’d found good value and brought in a lesser backup.
Left with both guys and only Garko at 1B, they worked out a split-time arrangement that left Shoppach seemingly unable to find his stroke in a part-time role. How fresh did it keep Victor? He had a 1098 OPS over his first 42 games, and then a 597 OPS over his next 47 games. If that’s “keeping fresh,” what does “un-fresh” look like?
At the same time, Shoppach hit okay, hovering around 700 OPS for the bulk of the season, and apparently his defense was lousy.
You could argue that this seems like a great idea and the Indians should have tried it more. The facts we have, though, is that they didn’t try it much, that it wasn’t their preferred plan for how to construct the roster, and when they did try it, it didn’t really work out that great.
I don’t believe it’s rare at all. I just try not to think out loud like this.
I feel — despite the evidence — that the arrangement with Kelly and Victor could’ve worked out better, given a little more time and managerial chin-scratching. I’d be interested to know how they would’ve played it had the season not been going to hell. Maybe Shoppach could’ve been used to minimize Victor’s slump, and maybe he could have found his feet sooner under those circumstances, but plainly the team’s priorities had shifted toward 2010. I admit that retrospective conjecture’s no kind of basis for future decision-making.
Irrespective of whether the Shoppach/Martinez experience has any bearing on Marson/Santana, I’m obviously high on Marson’s abilities, and concerned about Santana’s adjustment to higher-level play, so I’m hopeful they’ll work something advantageous out. Of course, if Santana hits his upper-percentile expectations, “advantageous” will translate to “lots of playing time for Santana.”
Anyway. I’m fond of the idea of using the second catcher more often. I think there’s value to be extracted there. I can’t prove it yet.
by fleerdon on Dec 30, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
Personally? It’s an interesting idea, but more difficult to work out in practice than in theory. I do think Victor’s slump was a fluke and generally unrelated to how they were setting up his playing time.
I think Shoppach’s slump, however, was more indicative of a flaw in the overall approach. Players who can excel in a part-time role aren’t the rule, they’re the exception. You see veterans put in this position all the time, but at some point, they became veterans by having at least some decent success in a full-time role. It won’t surprise me if Shoppach is a decent-hitting catcher five years from now, but it will surprise me if he doesn’t get a chance to play full-time again.
As for the current situation, the important difference is that both guys could turn out to be better defenders than Victor and Kelly have been. Santana is supposed to have a ridiculous arm, and Marson is a good all-around defender and apparently a great game-caller. Santana, I’ve often mentioned, could be a C-3B rather than merely a C-1B.
The wrinkle, I suspect, will again be in getting the lesser young hitter into a position where he’s getting enough reps to be a decent hitter. As it is, Shoppach potentially is a good hitter, but as a part-timer, he hasn’t been any better of a hitter than Tim Laker was. So why not just go with the TIm Laker type?
Marson is a good all-around defender and apparently a great game-caller
Not to nag but isn’t this the exact phrasing that was used for Victor prior to the great defensive collapse of 2008 or whenever it was?
“All-around” in that case was used to cover the fact that his arm wasn’t special. Santana could be an elite defender in terms of controlling the running game.
In six minor league seasons, Marson has thrown out 31% of baserunners. Over five seasons, Santana has thrown out 28%.
I’m not sure what that is supposed to tell us.
I've really got to change my signature.
I’m guessing the more telling number is that in 472 minor league games at catcher Marson has had 216 stolen base attempts (0.46/game). In 270 games, Santana has had 207 attempts (0.77/game).
Interesting. You think at some point, they just stop running on Marson? In the minors? Could he be that good?
by Jay on Jan 1, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Those numbers are misleading. The total games played include games played in the low minors for which SB/CS stats are not available. If you look just at games played during seasons in which the stolen base data is available, Marson has 216 attempts in 207 games (1.043/game). Santana has 207 attempts in 200 games (1.035/game).
Right. So maybe contact-hitting and plate-discipline is a skill more conducive to limited playing-time arrangements than was power-hitting and HBP. Here’s hopin’.
And, yeah, part of my thinking is just that the future looks so very left-handed. If Santana’s bat is worth keeping in the lineup, maybe using him to spell a left-handed position player could pay some dividends.
I’m not crazy, just unsubstantiated.
by fleerdon on Dec 30, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Is it? You see, All Truth Goes Through Three Stages…
by fleerdon on Dec 30, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
E5.
"Nobody ever thinks, 'Hey, maybe I’m actually an idiot.'" - Jay
by woodsmeister on Dec 30, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve often mentioned, could be a C-3B
I’m going to keep harping on this when you bring it up. Santana is without a doubt an athletic guy – but there is no evidence he can successfully play 3B. Maybe he can, but here is his minor league record at 3B:
58 games, 17 errors, most of those games occurring back in 2006.
I’ll take LaPorta over Brantley and Marte over Laporta. Maybe then you have to go Delgado over Marte.
Oh, and nice caption.
"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta
I know it’s been a long time since we’ve even consider this kind of thing but I think Brantley can be very valuable if he gets on base with any kind of regularity. He was 46/51 in SB last year in Columbus and that’s just with a .350 OBP. In his minor league career he’s stolen at an 81% clip.
Impact baserunning isn’t exactly a trademark of the Shapiro regime but, without running any numbers, I think Brantley’s stolen base ability is enough to push him into the lineup over Marte.
I’m starting to envision Marte finding ways to hang on kind of indefinitely. We’ll need him in spring to cover first until LaPorta’s healthy, and then maybe we’ll need him to spell or back up Jhonny, and then we’ll need him to cover third after we trade Jhonny (PS – are we trading Jhonny?), and then to stick around until Lonnie gets up here, which will probably take a few years, and then … well, I dunno then. Maybe he learns a knuckleball.
by fleerdon on Dec 29, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
Bill Selby is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and Bill Selby never dies.
by Brad D on Dec 30, 2009 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Been wondering about this idly; actually looked something up this morning. Jhonny makes $4.6MM in 2010; his option for 2011 is $7MM. I guess I had thought he was a bit more affordable than that, for whatever reason. Yeah, hard to imagine circumstances in which we’re not trying to flip him. This club could probably use $2+MM, and they’re not picking up that option.
Amusing factoid of the day: Jhonny’s contract includes a bonus for winning a Gold Glove.
by fleerdon on Dec 30, 2009 9:12 AM EST up reply actions
That’s funny, and I assume he still gets the bonus if he wins it at 3B.
Jhonny was extremely affordable for a while. Both his performance and the market have contracted considerably since the deal was signed. For most of the decade, $7 million for an okay shortstop who hits 25 HR would have been considered a huge bargain.
It is interesting to look at Peralta’s similar player’s by age from B-Ref. As a 23-year old his #1 comp is Ernie Banks – not bad. Also in that list is Troy Tulowitzki, Yogi Berra and Juan Samuel. As a 24 and 25-year old his lists remain pretty good, with JJ Hardy most comparable, but still featuring guys like Barry Larkin. By the time you get to the present Peralta’s list is populated by a lot of burnouts and guys who had just enough power to hang around the bigs for a decade. Peralta really seems slated for the latter bin.
He’s got Toby Harrah as a deep comp from last year. Huh.
I think the twin fortunes of Hardy and Peralta are sort of interesting-guys who’ve always comped decently for each other and both seem to have fallen far short of many’s expectations. Hardy’s got an extra year or two to turn it around, I guess. Reminds me of something that I realized last summer-the comp similarities between Rafael Betancourt and Justin Speier. I think this idea of guys having twinned careers at the same time is sort of fascinating.
Peralta is the ultimate counterexample for pollyannaish Indians fans. He seemed slated for greatness.
No more so than Carmona, though. Both guys had good but not overwhelming pedigrees in the minors. Both guys were sensational in their first full seasons. I think you have to give the edge to Carmona, because that first full season was even more impressive than Jhonny’s, and also because his fall from grace has been even more precipitous.
I agree, but I really want us to be the ones who find out how good Marte would be with regular playing time.
"I'm a baseball lifer. It's what I do." —Manny Acta
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