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What the Indians starters do well (Part 1)

The most questionable part of the Indians team heading into the 2009 season is the starting pitching.  This isn’t to say our starting pitching is the worst part of the team, but it is certainly the hardest to project.  I have talked a little bit before about some of our options for the back of the rotation.  Paul and Castrovince have both given their rotation previews recently as well.  I am of the opinion that we have enough pitching to be where we want to be come the end of July (at which point adding more pitching might be in play).  The challenge is that the right combination of pitching isn’t likely to be established by April 1.  Wedge and Willis will have a difficult role to play in deciding who takes the mound every 5th day – simultaneously avoiding giving too many starts to an underperforming guy and not wasting pitching talent at AAA.  In that light, I’d like to start a series looking at what each of our starting pitchers does well as a way of identifying what they need to do in 2009 to succeed (and what, if they aren’t doing it, tells us they need to get yanked).  As always this is offered in the “WTF do I know?” spirit.

 I’ll start with the 2 guys who have the clearest positives, Cliff and Fausto.

 In 2008 Lee did just about everything right (as if his 22-3 record and 2.83 FIP didn’t tell you that).  But what he really did well in 2008 was throw strikes.  Only Paul Byrd (57.0) and Andy Sonnanstine (56.9) threw a greater percentage of pitches in the strike zone among qualifying pitchers than Lee (56.4).  Only Mussina (67.6) and Ervin Santana (66.7) threw more first pitch strikes than Lee (66.6).  Paul Byrd’s control has allowed him to stick in the majors despite a lack of great “stuff”.  Cliff’s stuff is considerably better than Byrd’s, and in 2008 it began with his fastball.  Only 10 pitchers relied more heavily on their fastball than Lee, whose 91-93 mph fastball set up the success of his other pitches.  Lee’s change and curveball are both plus pitches, especially when coming off of Lee’s fastball (see this recent piece from THT on pitch sequencing), which they almost always were last season.  Lee also managed to get more groundballs off his fastball than he had in the past, something which helped dramatically lower his HR-rate.

 I don’t see any reason, barring injury, Lee can’t repeat some degree of his success from last year.  I’m not going to predict that he’ll go 22-3 again, but I would be shocked if his control fell off a cliff (no pun intended).  Seeing Lee maintain his control numbers and somewhat elevated GB-rate will be good signs.

 Fausto’s success is also easily explained.  Fausto’s power sinker (92-94 mph), in addition to being hangover inducing, might be the best pitch on Cleveland’s staff (Perez’s slider is probably the other leading contender).  Last year he threw it about 80% of the time, induced a huge amount of contact off of it, and was second in the league (behind Brandon Webb) in GB%.  But Fausto’s sinker works best when people swing at it.  Last year hitters did a better job of waiting for Fausto to throw strikes and as a result, recorded less swinging strikes and walked considerably more batters.  For Carmona to regain some of his 2007 success, it would help for him to make batters less patient by more consistently throwing strikes, thereby making it harder for hitters to hold off on pitches outside the zone (last year his outside the zone swing % dropped from almost 27% to 22%). 

 It is interesting that if you look at Josh Kalk’s 2008 pitch f/x data, they classify Carmona with three different primary pitches; a fastball, sinker, and cutter.  They are all, I’m pretty sure, his power sinker (all sit between 93-94 mph), but they differ in how much break they get and the results they produce.  The “cutter”, which made up a little over a third of his sinkers in 2008 is basically a less effective subset of the pitch.  It still induces groundballs, but batters let it go past them for a strike far less often.  One other thing that comes out of his pitching numbers is that in 2008 Carmona struggled with his slider which, along with his change, completes his repertoire.  Carmona doesn’t use his secondary pitches often, but his slider, which was an effective pitch in 2007, had almost no control in 2008.  More than half the time he threw it last year it was a ball (up from 36% in 2007), again, giving hitters more of a reason to keep the bat on their shoulder.

 So aside from the superficially obvious “get Ks and avoid BBs”, I think the two things to look for in Carmona are called strikes on his sinker and control of his slider.  Hopefully his control during winter ball is a sign these struggles are past him.

 Up next, some of the bigger question marks...

Comment 88 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Your remarks on Carmona are probably the best insight I’ve read all offseason. Well done.

by supermarioelia on Feb 11, 2009 8:54 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, I mean when you’ve got stuff like that why try to be so damn perfect?!

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 11, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

The Bigger Question Marks (part 2)

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Up next, the biggest question mark…

Jeremy Sowers amet magna dignissim lobortis. Morbi quis nibh. Curabitur blandit. Quisque laoreet vulputate lacus. Ut lacus. Maecenas lorem. Cum sociis natoque penatibus et magnis dis parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus. Pellentesque habitant morbi tristique senectus et netus et malesuada fames ac turpis egestas.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 11, 2009 9:36 PM EST reply actions  

Yea that’s it.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 11, 2009 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you’ll need a few more lorem ipsums and sed dignissims before you can get to Jeremy Sowers.

by Chiefroy on Feb 11, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t get it.

by Jay on Feb 11, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Poor attempt at humor, I guess.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 11, 2009 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I still don’t get it.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

This is the only part that matters:

Up next, the biggest question mark…

Jeremy Sowers

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 12, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

We call it Greek text, even though it’s Latin (?).

by odradek on Feb 11, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve observed to myself — and here, probably — that I think one of Fausto’s best secondary pitches is his high fastball (dunno if he throws a legit 4-seamer, but he does uncork some 96 mph chin music every now and then). I have no real evidence of this, and even if it were true, the explanations would be pure conjecture. Does it encourage batters to swing by changing their eye level? Does it make his sinker seem more enticing because it’s a little slower by comparison? I just have the sense that Fausto works too often in roughly the same speed range, in roughly the same part of the strike zone. And, you know, I like it when they throw hard.

by fleerdon on Feb 11, 2009 9:57 PM EST reply actions  

Here are all of Fausto’s pitches over 89 mph from last year. Again, they are described as three pitches; fastball, sinker, and cutter (called a splitter for some reason here). They all average out at just under 94mph by these data. That’s a fairly big cloud, though, so it’s possible there are variants of his fastball, both speed and break, tucked away within it.

by APV on Feb 11, 2009 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

oops…forgot to attach the picture:
fx

by APV on Feb 11, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Great stuff man. Quick question: where did you find his 2007 pitch f/x data? I ask because the closest I came to finding it was here. Thing is those can’t be his 2007 numbers because the numbers don’t add up. His pitches in 2008 would far exceed his 2007 numbers when in reality it should be the reverse. I want to figure this out because the data fascinates me.

by Joe. on Feb 11, 2009 11:07 PM EST reply actions  

I did a google search for 2007 josh kalk pitch f/x. Or you can click here.

by APV on Feb 11, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s the one I was looking at too. The data makes no sense. How did he throw more pitches in 2008 than in 2007? Not just more, but a lot more

by Joe. on Feb 11, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think MLB was collecting pitch f/x data in every stadium in 2007. So I think the data aren’t as good from that year. Not sure about that, though.

by APV on Feb 11, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions  

That sounds correct. As the pitch f/x system continues to improve, we’ll probably continue to see larger and more refined sample sizes. The total pitch count in the database isn’t meant to be comprehensive, it just shows how large the available sample was for the data on display.

by Pronk33 on Feb 12, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

i keep looking for the “here’s what we’re going to get out of fausto this year” so i can sleep at night. obviously that’s not going to happen, but i think this sums up better than anywhere else by far whatever happens why it will happen.

by Brick. on Feb 11, 2009 11:18 PM EST reply actions  

And when I talk about poor control on Fausto’s slider, this is what I mean:

fx2

by APV on Feb 11, 2009 11:41 PM EST reply actions  

What did his 2007 chart look like? I may be wrong here, but I feel like power sliders are supposed to be out of the zone. Couldn’t his “bad slider control” be a by-product of his bad fastball control? As in nobody was being fooled by his slider last year due to the ineffectiveness of his fastball?

by Joe. on Feb 11, 2009 11:58 PM EST up reply actions  

without tagging the coordinates of every pitch, it seems in 2007 this pitch spent a lot more time around the zone than in 2008, with the average pitch being somewhere in the lower right quadrant of the strike zone. As opposed to just outside the lower right quadrant in 2008.

by APV on Feb 12, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Interesting stuff thanks.

by Joe. on Feb 12, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I’ve got something like 7 of his 27 balls actually being strikes.

I have no idea if that’s unusual or not, but it seems high.

by afh4 on Feb 11, 2009 11:57 PM EST reply actions  

I would think that is extremely high. I remember hearing that umpires should be at least 95% accurate based on that Quest thing or whatever it is called

by Roger Dorn on Feb 11, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m talking about that ’08 slider chart, btw.

by afh4 on Feb 12, 2009 12:13 AM EST up reply actions  

This sort of analysis gives us a lot to look for. Kind of all winter, it’s been: well, maybe the control problems were based on his 2007 workload, and then he couldn’t get back on track after the injury, yada yada yada…

Being able to isolate the problems controlling the slider and keeping hitters honest with the sinker give us something to look for in the spring and into the early part of the seaon. Thanks, Adam, high quality stuff.

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 12, 2009 12:35 AM EST reply actions  

Would it be fair to assume the control problems with the slider were largely a result of his injuries though? It’s one thing to know what you’re doing wrong as a pitcher, but I’m not sure Fausto was physically able to correct these issues for large chunks of 2008.

by Pronk33 on Feb 12, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

We couldn’t know that unless the data could be divided into splits; I have no idea whether it can or not. But remember that the control problems were there before the injury; his ERA just didn’t reflect it until he came back, at least anecdotally because he seemingly induced DPs at will.

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 12, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Well you have to be careful here, because pitchers (or any player for that matter) don’t always suffer an injury and then are placed on the DL. He may have developed the injury prior to the day he was placed on the DL and may have seen the injury progress (or is it regress?) to the point where it became too painful to pitch through. Suffering through a multiple bad starts along the way.

by hans on Feb 13, 2009 1:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Didn’t he get hurt covering first? I’m certain I remember watching the game and saying “this isn’t good.”

Of course, he could have just aggravated it then.

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 13, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

That’s my point, it may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back.

by hans on Feb 15, 2009 2:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Laffey took advantage of the opportunity initially, as he went 4-3 with a 2.83 ERA over his first nine starts. But he began to slide in mid-June and was demoted back to Triple-A Buffalo by the end of July.

Do we know if Laffey’s struggles were connected to his elbow injuries or were the injures after his slide? Given Laffey’s major league record, nine sub 3.00 ERA starts is a lot of positive evidence that he should be good next year.

by world dictator on Feb 12, 2009 5:45 AM EST reply actions  

I never saw any official statements from the team about exactly when Laffey started to have elbow problems, but his last two starts (right before he got demoted) seem like more than just a couple of bad starts because they were sudden and consecutive. In his first 14 games, Laffey had a 3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 1.48 K/BB. In his final two ML starts, he lasted only 3.2 innings (SEA) giving up 9 H, 3 ER (8 total) and 4.0 innings (ANA) giving up 12 H and 8 ER.

My guess would be that’s when the elbow started to act up, but whether or not Cleveland or Laffey realized this was the cause of his struggles, I’m not sure.

by Pronk33 on Feb 12, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry about the formatting, shouldn’t have used the “at” symbol. That says “3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1.48 K/BB. In his final two ML starts.”

by Pronk33 on Feb 12, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

great write up dude. one question—i know that i’ve read in the past that some hitters regard lee’s cutter as his best pitch. i’ve always assumed that it is part of the reason he is so effective against right handed hitting (in fact, he’s always been one of those weird reverse platoon split guys—look here). i’ve been trying to find data on the cutter and, aside from fangraphs telling me he throws it 6.2% of the time, i can’t find anything. it doesn’t even show up on the pitch f/x tool that you guys used to plot pitch data above. any ideas on where this information might be found?

by Cap'n Snegiryov on Feb 12, 2009 9:06 AM EST reply actions  

I probably can’t provide much insight. Fangraphs and Josh Kalk are, I think, getting their data from different sources. But either way the data gets filtered through a system which decides what kind of pitch any given throw is. A lot of pitchers will have enough variation from pitch to pitch and do enough tweaking that the data around the edges is going to get pretty fuzzy. This is a problem for pitchers who play off different, but minor variations of a pitch, particularly the fastball. You could probably go into the data more closely and look at every pitch he threw over 90mph, for example, and run your own algorithm to try and assess fundamentally different pitches.

Another complication is that some pitchers actually call their pitches the wrong thing. But obviously the first-hand accounts of the people actually playing the game are hugely important and shouldn’t be ignored. The reality for Cliff is that he had a great fastball last year, perhaps playing off his ability to tweak it a little this way and that.

by APV on Feb 12, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah, i guessed that, at least on the josh kalk generator, lee’s cutter was just showing up as his fastball. either way, lee exhibits good movement on all of his pitches—i’ve also seen his changeup classified as a circle change.

i always try to explain to dumbs that lee is more of a power pitcher, despite his low 90s velocity (which is still above average for a lefty)—he’s got four plus offerings, works off of his excellent fastball, and has always had above average strikeout rates.

by Cap'n Snegiryov on Feb 12, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I thought he did throw a circle change. Or am I just wrong?

"...leading the league in most offensive categories. Including nose hairs."

by sarcasmdave on Feb 13, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

btw i think that this is the article where i first saw someone refer to lee’s cutter as his best pitch (howie kendrick, a righty).

by Cap'n Snegiryov on Feb 12, 2009 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

(sorry for the mass replies, but i just noticed this). . . love the carl pavano mention there. ha!

also, i just wanted to say that rereading that article gives me chills for baseball season to begin—cliff just had such an awesome season, and his ascent is just such a fascinating, uplifting story. i’m not just talking about the whole AAA-cy young angle (which is a great story too), but also the fact that, as a pitcher in single-A, lee was told that his son had a 30% chance of survival and he somehow maintained the focus to build a successful major league career. shap and wedge always talk about how they love their players to be mentally tough—i don’t know a better embodiment of that quality than lee.

by Cap'n Snegiryov on Feb 12, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I think you forgot to link a Hardball Times article. But this was a very good read.

Overall this wasn’t as funny as Andrew’s stuff. Close though.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 12, 2009 10:00 AM EST reply actions  

Can someone post Fausto’s winterball numbers?

Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.

by gte619n on Feb 12, 2009 10:26 AM EST reply actions  

How about, umm, you?

There’s a link on the right sidebar.

by afh4 on Feb 12, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Wait a minute, that sounded almost like Jay. Freaky.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Feb 12, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Pet peeve. I don’t get the asking of others for information when you’re clearly already on the internet.

by afh4 on Feb 12, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow. How could I have missed that. I mean, it’s just so clearly visible.

Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.

by gte619n on Feb 12, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

www.google.com

“fausto carmona winter league stats”

by Brick. on Feb 12, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Josh Rodriguez OPS’ed .532!

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 12, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s the thing, Peter

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 12, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Winter ball is a pretty loosey-goosey time.

"...leading the league in most offensive categories. Including nose hairs."

by sarcasmdave on Feb 13, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

If you’re going to get into a tiff about this, at least leverage your snark with the power the internet:

http://www.letmegooglethatforyou.com

Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.

by gte619n on Feb 12, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

      K/9    BB/9   K/BB
2007  5.73   2.55   2.25
2008  4.31   5.21   0.83
DWL   7.88   2.81   2.80

by FredOx on Feb 12, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions  

those are much more flattering than how his “basic” stats came out.

i’m sure this was posted already but here is some context on the DWL this year.

In other words, in this Dominican League notebook, use the stats as somewhat of a guide but proceed with caution.

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Feb 12, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Not trying to cherry-pick; the concern seemed to be whether he got his control back. He had a bad ERA (4.41), WHIP of about 1.25, and gave up 5 HR in six starts.

by FredOx on Feb 12, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Sorry, my post seems to be worded incorrectly.

I think the peripherals you posted are probably more apt indications of his performance in the DWL considering the “tight strike zone” and record high runs per game. I just posted that in case someone looked at his 2-2 record and 4.41 era and started to worry.

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Feb 12, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

If I’m reading this correctly, that’s even more encouraging for Carmona’s stats isn’t it? The fact that the umpiring was so terrible against the pitchers that a lot of players were putting up monster offensive numbers, and yet Carmona saw his walks go down, seems to be encouraging.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 12, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

agreed. just meant to say that his other stats should be taken in consideration of the league environment.

the 2.81 bb/9 in a league with a noted small strike zone is probably all anyone should look at in regards to fausto’s performance this winter

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Feb 12, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Here’s another stat line to like from the Liga de Beisbol Dominicano:

K/9   BB/9   K/BB
8.38  1.86   4.50

Whom, you ask? Adam Miller.

by FredOx on Feb 12, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Me gusta. The unlisted but guiding stat for Miller: Injuried sustained: 0. (knock on wood)

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Feb 12, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

hehe

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 12, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

like I could not turn this green…

by Logodaedalus on Feb 12, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Filthy.

Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.

by gte619n on Feb 12, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

That K/9 needs to be at least 13.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 12, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

How much should we really read into these numbers? At the risk of this being easily Googlable, what level is the play in the DWL? Are we talking AA, AAA, AAAA?

by Brad D on Feb 12, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I would say, yes.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I like that K/BB. Just, you know… do that.

Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.

by gte619n on Feb 12, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I was looking at some Carmona stats on Firstinning and they linked me to a USSMariner game thread from early April last year. I found this great little tidbit:

I still love rolling "Fausto Carmona" off my tongue in the mode of Ricard Montalban extolling the virtues of rich, Corinthian leather. It sounds like the name of the rich but evil playboy who seduces all the village women in some Argentinian telenovela.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 12, 2009 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

is that too big to be the site header?

by Brick. on Feb 12, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

There’s always “Like a Man in a Crisp Suit”

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 12, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

LGT: Rich but evil seducers.

by FredOx on Feb 12, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

RIP Mr. Montalban.

I think an STO promo with Ricardo Montalban sitting by a fire and softly repeating “Fausto Carmona” would have increased viewership 10 fold.

On a quasi-related topic: The Naked Gun trilogy has a superb cast of villains.

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Feb 12, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Just a general question… at what point are we not obliged to rec Adam and Andrew’s pieces?

Not that they don’t deserve it, but you know, I gotta spare my rec finger for the season.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Feb 12, 2009 8:58 PM EST reply actions  

Speaking as an “author,” I can tell you that recs are always appreciated, but at the same time, there is no real effect like there is with FanShots floating to the top. The quality of the main-page content isn’t really about enthusiasm for any one piece, it’s about the consistency of coverage. As you seem to sense, it’s a different vibe.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, in my mind, anything posted by one of you four as main page content is essentially autorecced by virtue of its existence.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Feb 12, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, yes, I can assure you, we feel the same way.

by Jay on Feb 13, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions  

lgt is in my top 5 favorite things in the world.

So 2009.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 15, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

does whiskey count as beer?

by emil minty on Feb 15, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I don’t understand this, but I’m rec’ing it anyway.

by Jay on Feb 15, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

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