K.C. Royals Preview

by ClarkM on Feb 12, 2009 5:11 PM EST

AL CENTRAL TEAM-BY-TEAM
Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins	Chicago White Sox	Kansas City Royals

It seems like the time of year to start sizing up the competition. I think the general consensus is that the wild card is likely to come out of the AL East, so winning the AL Central is probably the only ticket to the playoffs. I figured I’d start by looking at the Royals, not for any other reason than that I think they are the least likely team in the division to make any more moves. Last season, the Royals crept out of the cellar, finishing in fourth place with a record of 75-87. Their Pythagorean record was 72-90. PECOTA seems them again finishing in fourth with a 75-87 record.

Let’s start out by looking at their positional players:

Position	Age	’08 Triple Slash	OPS+ (‘06-08)	+/- (’06-08)	Comment
C-John Buck	28	.224/.304/.365	80, 90, 79	N/A	Buck suffered a dip in power last year that may return next year.
1b-Mike Jacobs	28	.247/.299/.514	106, 100, 109	-12, -10, -27	He and Shoppach have a similar set of offensive skills, but one is a good defensive catcher and the other is a bad defensive firstbaseman.
2b-Alberto Callapso	26	.305/.361/.371 Only 234 PA.	N/A	N/A	He has a good approach, but little power. Kevin Goldstein claims his defense his gold glove caliber.
3b-Alex Gordon	25	.260/.351/.432	N/A, 87, 110	N/A, +6, -11	Former uber-prospect made nice progress on his approach last year. Is power next?
SS-Mike Aviles	28	.325/.354/.480	N/A, N/A, 122	N/A, +15	I think everybody expects regression on the offensive side, but the good defense was unexpected so we might see some there as well.
Lf-David Dejesus	29	.307/.366/.452	108, 89, 118	-2, N/A, +8	The projections seem to think he’ll regress at the plate, mostly due to his BABIP last year.
Cf-Coco Crisp	29	.283/.344/.407	77, 83, 93	-7, +26, -2	One of those defensive numbers is not like the other.
Rf-Jose Guillen	33	.264/.300/.438	N/A, 116, 96	N/A, -7, -10	He is owed 24 million over the next two years. This probably isn’t going to end well.
DH-Billy Butler	23	.275/.324/.400	N/A, 105, 94	N/A	He seems like the best bet on the offense to make a dramatic improvement from last year.
UT-Mark Teahen	27	.255/.313/.402	122, 98, 91	Decent at the corner positions	He’ll be the primary backup at left, right, and third.
C-Miguel Olivo	30	.255/.278/.444	87, 72, 91	N/A	Buck’s backup/co-starter.

The Royals are not an old team as Guillen is the only starter over thirty. However, they don’t get on base very much or hit for a lot of power. They don’t really make up for that on defense or on the bases. BPro’s team baserunning and defensive efficiency had them about average in both categories last season. The only prospect of note that could reach the majors this year is Kila Ka’aihue. He’ll probably start the year in AAA as Ryan Shealy figures to be the other first baseman on the big league roster.

The starters. Using Rich Lederer’s criteria for starting pitchers, the league average GB% was 43.45%. League average for K/BF% was 16.90%. I can’t seem to locate the league average for walk rate so if anyone wants to add this, that would be helpful:

Pitcher	Age	ERA+ (’06-08)	IP (’06-08)	GB% (’08)	K/BF % (’08)	BB/BF% (’08)	Comment
Gil Meche	30	99, 128, 107	186, 216, 210	39.2%	20.65%	8.24%	3 years and 35 million are left on Meche’s contract.
Zach Greinke	25	N/A, 127, 123	6, 122, 202	42.7%	21.5%	6.58%	Big jump in innings could cause some health issues.
Brian Bannister	28	N/A, 121, 74	38, 165, 182	37.5%	13.93%	7.15%	Not as good as his numbers in ’07, but not as bad as his numbers in ’08.
Kyle Davies	25	53, 73, 105	63, 136, 113	38.8%	14.58%	8.83%	He should see a little regression on his hr/f, but he’s still a decent fifth starter.
Luke Hochevar	25	N/A, N/A, 77	0, 12, 129	51.8%	12.7%	8.3%	Former #1 overall pick had peripherals pretty similar to Aaron Laffey last year.

This is a pretty decent rotation, but not one without question marks. There also doesn’t seem to be a ton of depth in the minors, with probably only Dan Cortes as a legitimate option from the minors. They also signed Horacio Ramirez, who could start in a pinch.

The pen is pretty thin. That’s what happens when you trade away two of your best relievers. I think they might experience some real trouble making that bridge to Soria this year. From the farm, Carlos Rosa supposedly has a pretty good arm so he should probably see some action.

I think PECOTA has the Royals pegged pretty good. The offense is just too bad, and they aren’t good enough in the other areas to make up for it. With some breakout performances and some good luck, I think they can make it to five hundred, but even in a division as bad as the central, I don’t see how they have any real shot at winning the division. Thoughts?

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Comments

It will be interesting to see if Teahen does play some 2B in ST as has been rumoured. I think the Royals are a year or two away. They could have sped up their progress a bit by passing on the Jacobs, Bloomquists and Farnsworths of the world and signed someone like Adam Dunn. Or they could have made a run for Orlando Hudson or something.

by roywhitby on Feb 12, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions

I don’t know that any free agent signing catapults the Royals into contender status. Their best bet in my opinion, is to spend most of their resources acquiring minor league talent

by Roger Dorn on Feb 12, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with you that they should be spending the money on the draft/minor league development. But they did spend $11 million or so on marginal players that could have been spent on a free agent who would be a real plus to the lineup. Instead they are paying guys like Farnsworth and Jacobs.

by roywhitby on Feb 12, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

It’s not clear that the $11 million could have been spent that much better. They needed upgrades badly in many positions.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

Whenever Willie Bloomquist, Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Farnsworth is involved there has to be better ways to spend the money. Especially with a team with multiple holes. I guess the trades for Jacobs and Crisp help the lineup but the other 3 guys may be sunk costs even before they put on a Royals uniform. Maybe Dayton Moore is hoping Ramirez and Farnsworth rehabilitate themselves so he can trade them at the deadline? I don’t know.

by roywhitby on Feb 12, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

I assume an average AL BB/BF% is in the high 8s. I would also like to know what this is, exactly. Regardless, this is one area in which the Royals’ starters are well off. No loose cannons.

A lot of people panned the Jacobs signing, but they need power somewhere in the lineup.

Billy Butler is still one of the youngest players in baseball.

Overall they look a lot stronger than in recent years. I also really like Royals Review, their SB Nation chapter.

by jhon on Feb 12, 2009 7:36 PM EST reply actions

But Kila is supposed to provide power, and Gordon is always an option to play first. I don’t know, I’m still not a fan. I don’t think you can justify a ~.300 OBP.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 13, 2009 8:28 AM EST up reply actions

I expect Hochevar to pan out. I like the guy too much for him not too.

by mjschaefer on Feb 12, 2009 7:42 PM EST reply actions

Nice work—- thanks.

Also, what’s with Coco’s defensive stats?

by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 12, 2009 8:17 PM EST reply actions

Coco’s defensive explosion in 2007 was something of a surprise. He was considered an adequate CF when he was an Indian but certainly not in Grady’s league — less range, worse instincts and no better an arm. Coco has always gotten by on his speed, but his baserunning and defense have rarely been as good as his speed suggested they should be.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions

Bizarre, I know. UZR and other defensive stats show the same crazy bump. It’s like he just happened to run everything down that year.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 13, 2009 8:29 AM EST up reply actions

Billy Butler is too good not to break out at some point.

by Toxicadam on Feb 12, 2009 9:13 PM EST reply actions

Same goes for Alex Gordon. He had a nice little year last year but nothing like what he’s capable of. I’m really looking for him to explode this year.

by rockemsockem on Feb 13, 2009 3:13 AM EST up reply actions

From a prospect standpoint I’m excited to see what Kila can do in the bigs. He hasn’t slugged less than .780 at any stop since 2006 even if he’s been old for several of those stops. That’s slugged .780, not OPS.

Alex Gordon will break out, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it’s this year.

Thank you for doing this, Clark. Well done.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 13, 2009 8:33 AM EST reply actions

That’s the kind of absurd number you’d want to see of a guy playing old for his level, obviously. Hmm. I’ll add him to my prospects to watch list.

by Voltaire on Feb 13, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions

And obviously I’m an idiot. Fact check me people.

The 1.000+ OPS he put up at multiple levels last year was nice, but I was reading his whole chart way off. He slugged pretty pedestrian numbers on what looks like a rehab stint in 2007. Does anyone know what happened to him that made him go back and start over in A+?

Knock him down your prospect list Voltaire. Sorry for getting you amped.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 13, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm. Well, he’s still on my list because of the name. I love me some good names. And that’s what I get for blindly trusting authority.

by Voltaire on Feb 15, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions

Is his nickname “Ghostface”?

Signature to be named later.

by emd2k3 on Feb 16, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

It is now.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Feb 16, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the kind words. Also, something to keep in mind, Ryan posted the starter’s league average OPS+ for each position a while back. I think it might help to give some perspective:

Position OPS+
C 88
1B 112
2B 101
SS 92
3B 109
LF 113
CF 99
RF 109
DH 103

by ClarkM on Feb 14, 2009 10:48 AM EST reply actions