It seems like the time of year to start sizing up the competition. I think the general consensus is that the wild card is likely to come out of the AL East, so winning the AL Central is probably the only ticket to the playoffs. I figured I’d start by looking at the Royals, not for any other reason than that I think they are the least likely team in the division to make any more moves. Last season, the Royals crept out of the cellar, finishing in fourth place with a record of 75-87. Their Pythagorean record was 72-90. PECOTA seems them again finishing in fourth with a 75-87 record.

Let’s start out by looking at their positional players:

The Royals are not an old team as Guillen is the only starter over thirty. However, they don’t get on base very much or hit for a lot of power.   They don’t really make up for that on defense or on the bases. BPro’s team baserunning and defensive efficiency had them about average in both categories last season. The only prospect of note that could reach the majors this year is Kila Ka’aihue. He’ll probably start the year in AAA as Ryan Shealy figures to be the other first baseman on the big league roster.

The starters. Using Rich Lederer’s criteria for starting pitchers, the league average GB% was 43.45%. League average for K/BF% was 16.90%. I can’t seem to locate the league average for walk rate so if anyone wants to add this, that would be helpful:

This is a pretty decent rotation, but not one without question marks. There also doesn’t seem to be a ton of depth in the minors, with probably only Dan Cortes as a legitimate option from the minors. They also signed Horacio Ramirez, who could start in a pinch.

The pen is pretty thin. That’s what happens when you trade away two of your best relievers. I think they might experience some real trouble making that bridge to Soria this year. From the farm, Carlos Rosa supposedly has a pretty good arm so he should probably see some action.

I think PECOTA has the Royals pegged pretty good. The offense is just too bad, and they aren’t good enough in the other areas to make up for it. With some breakout performances and some good luck, I think they can make it to five hundred, but even in a division as bad as the central, I don’t see how they have any real shot at winning the division. Thoughts?