Fangraphs Article on Indians Rotation Battle

Got to love the work over at Fangraphs. Decent article on how the numbers suggest the Indians Rotation should shake out.

almost 3 years ago stickpiano 32 comments 1 recs |

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Fangraphs + Indians + LGT = love is on our side

So 2009.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 15, 2009 12:32 PM EST reply actions

this a nice read. bendix and boddy work both cited.

by Brick. on Feb 15, 2009 1:07 PM EST reply actions

See, this is why I’m not very worried about our rotation.

And I know it’s incredibly small SSS, but nobody likes mentioning SLEWis’ MLB numbers.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 15, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions

SSSS!

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 15, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

What do you mean by SLEWis’ MLB numbers? are you saying they were really good? He had a 4.90 FIP and a 2.63 ERA. Including some impossible to maintain luck in LOB, and LD.

by hans on Feb 15, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

Scoreless inning streaks really don’t come about by accident.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 15, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions

I’d like to agree, but Mujica sure spent the last two seasons making the case against.

by Jay on Feb 15, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

there’s still a part of me that wants mujica to get the last spot in the bullpen.

by Brick. on Feb 16, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

There’s still part of me that doesn’t really have any idea who Mujica is or why he’s here

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Feb 16, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs

I know what you mean. Shocking facts about Mujica:

He appeared in 33 Indians games last season.
He’s spent 1.6 seasons on the Indians’ 25-man roster.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Heh

Useful facts

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Feb 16, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions

I declare my continued reign over the kingdom of “Mujica Sucks.”

"Less of an Indians fan" - Jay

by Voltaire on Feb 16, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions

I’ll direct you to Jeremy Sowers B-Ref page, and specifically to his 2006 season, and the following two seasons that saw his poor peripherals catch up with him. I like Lewis too, but he’ll need to post numbers like he did in A+ and AA to come close to replicated his line from last season on a regular basis (i.e. K rates above 7/G).

by hans on Feb 16, 2009 2:51 AM EST up reply actions

Don’t use k/9, k/pa is a better number (and just as easily available – see firstinning.com). In A+ Lewis struck out 26% of the guys he faced which is a fantastic number for a starting pitcher. But over the last two seasons in Akron and Buffalo he never struck out less than 21% of the batters, which is still not bad, especially coupled with a walk rate dropping to 3-4%. The challenge will be to see if he can keep those rates at 20/5 in Cleveland I have no doubt he’ll be a fine starter (in his short stint last year he was at 15.5/6.2).

by APV on Feb 16, 2009 7:28 AM EST up reply actions

You are correct, and I have to get into the habit of using firstinning.com as its a pretty damn good site.

But I’m not sure about him being a no doubt fine starter. He’s not a GB pitcher, and his HR/FB will surely jump up once in the Major Leagues. I honestly don’t know what to make of him, he doesn’t throw hard but gets people out with his stuff. I would say he has the upside of a solid starter in the majors but can just as easily be AAAA pitcher where his soft stuff gets hammered. The variance in possible outcomes is much greater with him than the avg. starting pitching prospect in my oppinion.

by hans on Feb 16, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

It’s possible to be a good flyball pitcher. It just helps a lot if you don’t walk guys and strike out a fair number. I’ll just reference Baseball Analysts most recent four-quadrant graph for starting pitchers – guys like Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir and Chris Young are pretty good pitchers with extreme flyball tendencies. In fact, looking at guys in the SE quadrant hovering around 20% K/PA and you see guys like Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Matt Cain…those are good pitchers. ~~Jacobs~~ Progressive Field is generally pretty neutral if not a little pitcher-favored when it comes to HR-rates, so there’s no reason to expect an unusually high HR/FB% out of Lewis. The key is just minimizing the damage of HRs when they happen by keeping guys off base.

A stat I’d be really interesting in seeing is the percentage of PAs a pitcher is pitching with the bases empty…I bet you’d see the successful guys in the SE quad of that graph high up on that list.

by APV on Feb 16, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting thought.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

Chris Young pitches in PETCO a park that influences HRs by -.010 the largest digression from neutral in all of baseball. His xFIP for the last three years 4.95, 4.70, 4.94. And Harden 31% K/PA, and Kazmir 26% K/PA are not good comps because of they achieve a K% Lewis hasn’t even achieved above AA.

Lewis has nowhere near the minor league K% of Cole Hamels or Matt Cain, So I don’t see the comp there either. If he were to turn into the 20% K/PA SE quadrent pitcher don’t you think that he’d have a similar pedigree to those pitchers. Matsuzaka is his own thing, and that leaves Greinke, who, if you ignore age, is a decent comp,,,,but that is ignoring age. So yes if he turns into that type of pitcher he would be able to be a “good pitcher”. But I see nothing from the pitchers you mention that suggests he’ll be in the SE quadrent and not the dreaded Paul Byrd SW quadrent, a solid innings eater with worse than league avg. ERA (or RA or what have you).

by hans on Feb 16, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions

I’m just saying that at this point, you have to give Lewis the benefit of the doubt until he fails. People have talked about his lack of top-line stuff since he was drafted, but he has gotten better every time he has advanced.

by APV on Feb 17, 2009 8:28 AM EST up reply actions

I think you and I are simply coming from two different perspectives on him (which is fine), I’m a little more bearish on him and I think the Indians themselves are that way as well if only because its better to not assume that Lewis is a sure fire major league starter and plan accordingly until he proves them otherwise (as opposed to giving him the benefit of the doubt until he fails).

by hans on Feb 17, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

Nobody’s pencilling him in to any significant role yet, so you’re right in that sense. I do think he’s a very nice player to have in your back pocket as a #7 or #8 starter.

by Jay on Feb 17, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions

I won’t disagree with that. I just wish we had some better options in the #4-#6 spots. But we’ll see how it pans out.

by hans on Feb 18, 2009 2:26 AM EST up reply actions

It’s also possible to have good stuff without throwing super-hard.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I’d say Lewis is the poster boy for that, but can you have good stuff without throwing hard in the minors and have it translate into the major league level? Yes in the absolute, but how often does this happen? All things being equal you take the guy who throws harder, so Lewis is going to have to make up a lot of ability in his control and deception/movement, and can basically forget about pitching on the middle and inside of the plate.

by hans on Feb 16, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions

This is the first I have heard of this website. I like what I’m seeing, thanks.

by ClarkM on Feb 16, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

it’s not super, but it does save you the step of calculating K% and BB% from the numbers. I don’t know why fangraphs doesn’t present the numbers in this form.

by APV on Feb 16, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

I was wondering the same thing. It’s not too difficult, seeing how all the information is there, but it is just an extra step.

When caclulating K% or BB%, do you subtract IBB from the total batter’s faced and the walk totals, or do you leave it as is?

by ClarkM on Feb 16, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

I usually don’t pay attention to IBBs. They generally are small enough to not really affect the calculation much one way or another. If a site does break down BBs and IBBs though and I feel like being exact, I’ll take IBBs out of the equation entirely as they don’t reflect a player’s ability in any way.

by APV on Feb 16, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions