PECOTA's favorite among this cattle call is command-and-control lefty Scott Lewis (4.64 ERA), who...

PECOTA's favorite among this cattle call is command-and-control lefty Scott Lewis (4.64 ERA), who pitched well in a four-start September stint. It's not nearly so keen on fellow southpaws Aaron Laffey (5.33) or Jeremy Sowers (5.16), both of whom have shuffled off to Triple-A Buffalo countless times in recent years, and it's downright pessimistic on yet another lefty, Zach Jackson (5.86).

PECOTA takes on spring position battles, via ESPN Insider. This is straight PECOTA reportage, not independent analysis. Laffey's demotions to Triple-A are not countless; they could be counted with little difficulty, and without looking it up, it seems to me that only one of those demotions had anything to do with poor performance. Like Carmona entering 2007, Laffey entering 2009 is a clear case where PECOTA has all the stats but not all the information.

almost 3 years ago Jay 49 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

In prep for part 2 of my (hopefully only) 3 part series looking at the pitchers, I’ve been looking at Laffey’s numbers. I think there is good reason to be optimistic about him. I’m a SLewi fan, too, but I think Lewis has a narrower margin of error and is a more likely candidate for “his stuff” simply not translating to the big league level.

by APV on Feb 16, 2009 5:12 PM EST reply actions

I agree on Laffey. It’s not hard to think back to May when we were all raving about the job he was doing. Jay is right that this is a case where just looking at numbers won’t be sufficient

by Roger Dorn on Feb 16, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Nate Silver is my hero so I don’t know if it’s possible for me to ever speak ill of him. Jay, to what exactly are you referring when you say he has all the stats, just not all the information? Almost all of Laffey’s numbers went down last year, so I think it’s easy to see where one could be pessimistic about him.

Moving onto Lewis, I really like him as well but those GB% numbers are truly frightening. I think if you are going to be very successful when you give up a flyball 2 out of 3 times, control isn’t just going to get it done. You need to strikeout guys at least at a 7 K/G clip. That is if you want to be more than just a Byrd-type player.

by Joe. on Feb 16, 2009 5:40 PM EST reply actions

I think you are over-playing Lewis’ GB numbers. In his short stint in Cleveland, he had a 15.5 K% and 38 GB. Across his previous two years in the minors at AA and AAA, he put up pretty much 21K and ~40 GB%. If he were able to get his K-rate up to that number in the bigs, he would be right in line with Johan Santana (21.4/41), Gil Meche (20.6/39), Ben Sheets (19.5/40) and a host of other good pitchers. GB-rates are important but it is possible to be successful and allow fly balls.

by APV on Feb 16, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t think it’s natural to assume that he will get his K numbers up in line with his AAA numbers. Few guys are able to replicate their strikeout numbers from the minors when they pitch in MLB, and the ones that do certainly don’t have fastballs below 90 mph. The jump from AAA to MLB is huge for guys that rely on control, not stuff, like Lewis does.

by Joe. on Feb 16, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

but even in his first view of the bigs he was striking out almost 16% of the guys he faced, which is basically league average. it is not as if he was in Paul Byrd territory.

by APV on Feb 16, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t want to speak for Jay, but I feel like this is a softball of sorts.

It’s not an indictment of Nate Silver—it’s a recognition that the numbers don’t see all of the relevant variables. Silver and others at BP recognize this and it will often show up in the player comments of the BP annual. In Laffey’s case, the obvious variable is that his major outlier starts were all in a row, right before his demotion, and there is significant evidence that he was at the time pitching with an elbow injury.

Almost all of Laffey’s numbers went down, and the projection incorporates that. BUT, the injury is a possible, even likely, explanation for the poor performance that (1) the numbers don’t see and (2) has (hopefully) no influence on his performance going forward.

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 16, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

You shoudln’t conflate PECOTA with Nate’s personal analysis and judgment. PECOTA is a fixed system using statistical analysis to make projections. It does not apply human intelligence or non-statistical data into its processes. It doesn’t know that Laffey had a little arm trouble at the end of the year but was highly effective for several months before that. It isn’t that nuanced.

by Jay on Feb 16, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

And in fact, starting last year they began to weight second-half stats more heavily than first half stats (only on a 55/45 or 52/48 basis or something), which would further exacerbate the negative impact of Laffey’s injury/ineffectiveness.

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 16, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

I was basically just reinforcing Nate’s awesomeness for no apparent reason. I’m aware that his system doesn’t take his analysis into account. What I didn’t know was that Laffey had arm troubles toward the end of last season, so my question is answered.

by Joe. on Feb 16, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

Are we sure Laffey was hurt or is this speculation?

by ClarkM on Feb 16, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions

“It was just a rough patch,” he said. “Nothing out of the ordinary. I had a little [elbow] soreness, and I threw through that. It got to the point where I couldn’t straighten my elbow. I just look at is as a rough patch and I went through some things. It seemed right when I started to figure it out [at Buffalo], that’s when my elbow hurt the worst.”

http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090202&content_id=3791778&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle

I haven’t seen anyone explicitly blame the elbow for his collapse, but the fact that it all came at once—27 runs allowed in 23.2 innings over his last five starts, with no real rebound at Buffalo—is really striking, at least to me.

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 16, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions

And sorry about the goofy looking link, I’m still working the kinks out.

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 16, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions

To render text as a hyperlink, try this code. I usually do all my special formatting, and add pics and links by inputing the HTML directly in the comment field.

Hitting “preview” will let you know if your link works or not.

by jhon on Feb 16, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions

This link?

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 16, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Sweet. Thanks.

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 16, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

I cannot understand why Scot Lewis’s stuff doesn’t translate to better numbers. He goes after hitters, shows very good control and has a lot of composure.

by elsandito on Feb 16, 2009 5:43 PM EST reply actions

is lewis’ projection skewed because he had so few ML starts and they were all so good?

by Brick. on Feb 16, 2009 5:53 PM EST reply actions

Lewis’ projection isn’t skewed. His numbers are just really that good – at least his minor league numbers. Look them up. He essentially doesn’t have a bad line in his minor league career.

by APV on Feb 16, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, when healthy, Lewis has always put up good-to-great numbers, at every level. HIs innings have been very limited though.

by mrich on Feb 16, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions

man, what the heck. how have i not seen this before. kind of crazy. it’s a health thing mainly then that he’s gone under (at least my) radar i guess.

by Brick. on Feb 16, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

This is exactly what his profile says in the upcoming annual. Very few seem to notice his dominance.

by tabler84 on Feb 16, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions

His numbers are definitely excellent in the minors. I think the thing with him, as APV said before, is basically just wondering how his stuff will translate to the majors.

by Joe. on Feb 16, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, i don’t really want another sowers.

by Brick. on Feb 16, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions

I think Lewis struck out 38 or so batters in two consecutive starts at OSU…does that help?

by Thommy on Feb 17, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Not to pick on you, Joe, but what kind of pitchers don’t translate well to the majors? I’ve never understood this comment. Sowers, for example, hasn’t had good peripherals (“Use your peripherals!”) since 2005. He was ‘good’ in 2006, but only if you don’t use your peripherals (“it looks like a… it’s either a ficus… it might be a rubber tree plant.”).

I feel good about Lewis. His ratios have always been stellar. Sure, like every other pitcher that moves from the minors to the majors he’ll strikeout a few less, walk a few more, and give up a few more HR, but even that has him being a pretty good ML pitcher (in my eyes, a slightly above-average starter for 5-6 IP). From where I sit, the guys whose ‘stuff doesn’t translate well’ don’t have the margin of error to handle the normal decrease in effectiveness that goes with an increased level of competition. But I’m open to other perspectives.

by Thommy on Feb 17, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

I think Sowers more or less support his point. He didn’t quite have the peripherals, and the success he enjoyed in 2006 was either superficial or necessarily temporary, depending on your perspective.

by Jay on Feb 17, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

looks like lewis has two option years remaining. since i went to find out, i’m putting it here just in case others are curious.

by Brick. on Feb 16, 2009 6:07 PM EST reply actions

WHY ISN’T MY LGT ANNUAL HERE YET?!!?

Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.

by gte619n on Feb 16, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions

cuz you post off-topic and all caps good thing you didn't put anything in the subject line

by passed ball on Feb 16, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions

Watch it.

Signature to be named later.

by emd2k3 on Feb 16, 2009 10:33 PM EST up reply actions

I’m with you emd. In my case, it’s “where is this thing that I only heard about a week ago but can not live without??”

by dgcambridge on Feb 17, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but i just read an informative Q&A between Keith Law and the guys over at the Braves site. He even came back to reply to some of the comments. Is this a subject that has been broached? I would love to read some KLaw back and forth with the main contributors of LGT. He definitely was not afraid to tell it like he sees it.

I refuse to ever root for a team that routinely does the MVP chant for opposing players.

by TheVanillaGorilla on Feb 16, 2009 8:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs