Detroit Tigers Preview

by ClarkM on Feb 18, 2009 4:44 PM EST Comment 38 comments

AL CENTRAL TEAM-BY-TEAM
Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins	Chicago White Sox	Kansas City Royals

The Tigers’ offseason looks to be pretty much finished, so here goes. Last season, they finished last in the division with a record of 74-88. Their pythag record was 78-84 and this season, PECOTA projects them to finish 3rd with a record of 77-85.

Let’s start out by looking at their positional players:

Position	Age	’08 Triple Slash	OPS+ (‘06-08)	+/- (’06-08)	Comment
C-Gerald Laird	29	.276/.329/.398	105, 64, 92	N/A	Supposedly a good backstop, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat last year’s offense.
1b-Miguel Cabrera	26	.292/.349/.537	159, 150, 130	-12, -24, -6 ’06 and ’07 was at 3rd.	I tend not to look too much into first half/second half splits, but Cabrera was significantly better in the second half and it had nothing to do with BIP.
2b-Placido Polanco	33	.307/.350/.417	80, 122, 102	+5, +10, +14	Second baseman tend to have short careers, so a sharp drop off is not out of the question.
3b-Brandon Inge	32	.205/.303/.369	98, 80, 76	+27, +22, N/A Played C last year.	Phenomenal defender that almost has to hit for a better average next year.
SS-Adam Everett	32	.213/.278/.323	64, 56, 64	+41, +18, -1 Small samples in the last 2 seasons.	One would think the injuries and age have taken a toll on his defensive capabilities.
Lf-Carlos Guillen	33	.286/.376/.436	136, 123, 114	This will be his first extended action in left.	Not the asset he used to be now that his offense is declining and he’s a Lf, but the Tigers owe him 36 million over the next 3 years.
Cf-Curtis Granderson	28	.280/.365/.494	98, 136, 124	+12, +20, -12	For a player on one of the Tribe’s rivals, I like this guy way more than I should.
Rf-Magglio Ordonez	35	.317/.376/.494	112, 167, 127	-16, +3, -11	He needs 457 PA this year to guarantee his options of 18 million in ’10 and 15 million in ’11.
DH-Gary Sheffield	40	.225/.326/.400	107, 120, 90	N/A	A great talent like Sheff may have one more good season in him, but that seems unlikely.
OF-Marcus Thames	32	.241/.292/.516	123, 99, 108	-8, +4, -13	He’ll be the primary backup in left and at DH.
INF-Ramon Santiago	29	.282/.411/.460	N/A	N/A	Hasn’t played much the past 3 seasons but with Adam Everett as the only other SS, he’ll see plenty of action.

This is a pretty good, but old offense. Cabrera is most likely going to be better this season, but I don’t see where else improvements are going to come from. They have some other guys like Raburn, Larish, and Clete Thomas that are decent placeholders, but their system lacks impact positional players. Last season, they were bad on both the basepaths and in the field. BPro’s two team metrics had them at 25th and 24th respectively. The defense should probably be better, if both Inge and Everett are healthy.

The starters. Using Rich Lederer’s criteria for starting pitchers, the average GB% was 43.45%. Average for K/BF% was 16.90%. Average for BB/BF% 7.89%:

Pitcher	Age	ERA+ (’06-08)	IP (’06-08)	GB% (’08)	K/BF % (’08)	BB/BF% (’08)	Comment
Justin Verlander	26	126, 125, 92	186, 201, 201	39.9%	18.52%	9.89%	He had a flukey rookie season, legit second season, and a hard-luck third season.
Jeremy Bonderman	26	112, 91, 104	214, 174, 71	47.4%	13.79%	11.29%	Health experts: Is Bonderman’s illness something that is likely to be a recurring problem?
Armando Galarraga	27	N/A, 119	0, 8.7, 178	43.5%	16.89%	8.18%	He looks very average, not that there is anything wrong with that.
Edwin Jackson	25	N/A, 78, 101	36, 161, 183	39.1%	13.64%	9.72%	Scouty types love this guy so there may be a possibility that he breaks out, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Nate Robertson	31	119, 96, 70	208, 177, 168	44.5%	14.19%	8.15%	I think he will bounce back to being a decent back end guy.

There are too many wild cards (4) for the rotation to be a real asset. There is some upside, but I think more likely, this rotation could be a train wreck. Miner and Dontrelle will probably get some starts as well.

The bullpen, like the last couple of season, will not be good. Lyon is a closer in name only. Rodney and Zumaya have perpetual health issues. Not much to like here, though Bobby Seay is pretty decent.

6 recs | Comment 38 comments

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Comments

Very cool, thanks. These breakdowns are very user-friendly… easy to read and a good quick reference.

The Tigers don’t scare me. At all.

I'm *always* in the driver's seat, cugino -- Chuck

by Turkmenbashi on Feb 18, 2009 5:09 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

THIS.

by tabler84 on Feb 18, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Since you’ve got the average rates, it might be interesting to see them presented as:

GB+ = 100 * GB% (player) / GB% (league)

K+ = 100 * K% (player) / K% (league)

BB+ = 100 * BB% (league) / BB% (player)

(Walk rate formula is reversed, because a lower walk rate is better, lower than average = better than average, so you want lower than average to end up over 100.)

by Jay on Feb 18, 2009 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This sounds like a great idea.

by ClarkM on Feb 19, 2009 8:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There are few players I enjoy watching more than Curtis Granderson.

There are few human heads that induce such intense nausea and confusion as Placido Polanco’s.

by tabler84 on Feb 18, 2009 6:11 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Polanco is carrying on the Bulgy Bear tradition started by Glenallen Hill.

by Julie on Feb 22, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

man, i forgot all about Galarraga. weren’t like half of his wins against us?

by Brick. on Feb 18, 2009 6:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

more like a quarter i guess.

by Brick. on Feb 18, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In 07, too, I htink.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 18, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am actively rooting for Magglio to reach that PA vesting option mark. $18mm next year? Wow

by Roger Dorn on Feb 18, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This.

by jds16 on Feb 18, 2009 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, me too.

"Less of an Indians fan" - Jay

by Voltaire on Feb 18, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Although, it only locks in a two-year extension at $33 million, and he is only one year removed from an MVP-caliber season. It isn’t that horrendous.

Okay, it’s kind of horrendous.

by Jay on Feb 18, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’d prefer him to get about 20 PA, personally.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 18, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on if you see the Tigers as a threat this year. My gut says they aren’t PECOTA says they are — although it’s probably more like, they aren’t a threat to catch us as much as we’re a threat to sink down to them. Anyway, if you think they aren’t a factor in this year’s race given a normal season from Magglio, then you root for the decent season so they’re financially hamstrung in future seasons. Otherwise, you root for all of them to have hip injuries.

by Jay on Feb 18, 2009 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So you’ll root for a player on the Tigers to have a good season as long as they’re not a threat…

"Less of an Indians fan" - Jay

by Voltaire on Feb 19, 2009 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To screw them in the future, yeah – why not.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 19, 2009 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda like how I hope Favre unretires in like July, to put the jets over the cap. Even though I can’t stand him being in the league still.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 19, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Only good enough to not get benched.

by jds16 on Feb 19, 2009 7:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The point is that I couldn’t care less about the player. I’m just trying to decide which outcome is better for the Indians. The question in this case is whether Magglio is good enough, and whether the Tigers are good enough, that it even will make a difference what kind of season Magglio has.

by Jay on Feb 19, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s definitely feasible to have 457 PA and not be out of this world at the plate. Having him locked in for 2/33 is a huge strain on the budget for an aging player

by Roger Dorn on Feb 19, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You sold me. Those are his age 36-37 seasons.

For bonus points, I’m going to refrain from whining about how confidently you stated your opinion.

by Jay on Feb 19, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you had asked me last year, I wouldn’t have been so confident. Just watching this current free agent market has done a lot to alter my perception of player value

by Roger Dorn on Feb 19, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that still doesn’t give you the right to state opinions like they’re facts.

by Brick. on Feb 19, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your irony is too subtle.

by Jay on Feb 19, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I got it, on your first post. I chuckled.

by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 19, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I missed the joke and still am

by Roger Dorn on Feb 19, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really do award bonus points for that. It’s in my database.

by Jay on Feb 19, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

SS-Adam Everett

CHAMPIONSHIP

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 18, 2009 6:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i can’t wait to see what that kid hits in the majors.

by emil minty on Feb 18, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

kid?

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 18, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

majors?

"...leading the league in most offensive categories. Including nose hairs."

by sarcasmdave on Feb 22, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Old. Expensive.

by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 19, 2009 1:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow – the Tigers have a lot of bad contracts. We would all be going nuts if we were Detroit fans. Also, they’ve got a starting staff full of guys with control issues, no?

by APV on Feb 19, 2009 8:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Verlander sure misses inside a lot when he pitches against the Tribe. 14 of his 40 career HBPs have come to Tribe batters in 15 games started.

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Feb 19, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just looking at the contracts the Tigers already have on the books for 2010:

Maggs-18 M (assuming the option gets exercised)
Cabrera-20 M
Bonderman-12.5 M
Guillen-13 M
Dontrelle-12 M
Robertson-10 M
Inge-6.6 M
Granderson-5.5 M

That totals to 97.6 Million. That’s not including Verlander who will be entering his second arbitration year. Not a good situation, and one that’s only compounded by their thin system.

by ClarkM on Feb 19, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So you are saying they can’t afford LeBron?

by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 20, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs

They look to me like they could be a worthy adversary or an easy pushover from on week to the next. Hopefully we hit them at all the right turns. I don’t count them out of it, but I don’t anticipate this group holding up for 162.

Looking forward to the rest of the series, Clark.

by jhon on Feb 19, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs