Minnesota Twins Preview

by ClarkM on Feb 24, 2009 8:25 PM EST

AL CENTRAL TEAM-BY-TEAM
Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins	Chicago White Sox	Kansas City Royals

The Minnesota Twins finished second in the division after losing a one game playoff with the White Sox. Their record was 88-75, and had a pythag record of 89-74, though that is a little misleading as the Twins scored far more runs than expected due to their abnormally high batting average with runners in scoring position. BPro’s third order wins had them at 83-80.

Let’s start out by looking at their positional players:

Position	Age	’08 Triple Slash	OPS+ (‘06-08)	+/- (’06-08)	Comment
C-Joe Mauer	26	.328/.413/.451	144, 117, 137	N/A	+/- doesn’t rate catchers but it’s generally thought that Mauer is good defensively.
1b-Justin Morneau	28	.300/.374/.499	140, 121, 137	+1, 0, -1	I think because the media overrates him so much, I’ve underrated him. He’s good.
2b-Alexi Casilla	24	.281/.333/.374	N/A, 39, 94 Only 204 PA in ’07.	N/A, -4, -3	Kind of nitpicky, but there might be a durability issue with Alexi.
3b-Joe Crede	31	.248/.314/.460	107, 49, 98 Only 178 PA in ’07.	+31, +11, +13	Not nitpicky at all, there are major durability issues with Crede.
SS-Nick Punto	31	.284/.344/.382	90, 52, 99	+4, +5, +4 These are his numbers at short, all small samples.	PECOTA projects a serious drop off in his offense, about halfway between his’07 and ’08 numbers.
Lf-Delmon Young	23	.290/.336/.405	N/A, 91, 102	N/A, -7, -25 In ’07, he played right.	One could argue that Young is an example of the prospect mavens not placing enough of an emphasis on position, defense, and approach.
Cf-Carlos Gomez	23	.258/.296/.360	N/A, N/A, 79	N/A, N/A, +32	Gomez got 90 starts in the leadoff spot last year; let’s hope that he and his sub .300 OBP see more time there this year.
Rf-Michael Cuddyer	30	.249/.330/.369	124, 111, 92	-28, -22, -9 Last season was a partial season.	It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire doles out the playing time in the outfield as Span and Cuddyer do not have significant splits, though Cuddyer’s health might make this moot.
DH-Jason Kubel	27	.272/.335/.471	72, 109, 118	N/A	Projected to be the third best hitter on the team with a .766 OPS. The Indians have five players projected to best that mark.
OF-Denard Span	25	.294/.387/.432	N/A, 125	+12 in right. -3 in center.	He’s not nearly as good as he was last year but his defense suggests he should get plenty of playing time.
INF-Bendan Harris	28	.265/.327/.394	N/A, 106, 97	His defense at short is really bad, decent at 2b and 3b.	Harris is a useful back-up . He was part of the disastrous Garza-Young deal.

This offense is incredibly reliant on Morneau and Mauer. They need both of them to be healthy and productive if they are to contend. In ’07, they weren’t and they finished below .500. They are a very good baserunning team, but they are not a good defensive team. The farm probably won’t be able to help them much this year as their two stud prospects (Revere and Hicks) are a ways away.

The starters. This time around, I have computed GB+, which is 100 * GB% (player) / GB% (league), K+, which is 100 * K% (player) / K% (league), and BB+ = 100 * BB% (league) / BB% (player). Jay gets the credit for this idea. One thing to keep in mind, these categories aren’t created equally. It is better to be above average in K+ than to be above average in BB+, and better to be above average in BB+ than to be above average in GB+.

Pitcher	Age	ERA+ (’06-08)	IP (’06-08)	GB+ (’08)	K+ (’08)	BB+ (’08)	Comment
Scott Baker	27	70, 102, 118	83, 143, 172	76	119	131	Baker is the oldest and most experienced of the rotation.
Francisco Liriano	25	207, N/A, 104	121, 0, 76	96	121	81	People claim that it takes two years to return to prior form after TJ surgery. Let’s hope that isn’t the case here.
Kevin Slowey	25	N/A, 92, 102	0, 66, 160	83	111	213	Slowey’s BB rate is in Cliff Lee territory; it’s actually better by one tenth of a percentage point.
Nick Blackburn	27	N/A, 100	0, 11, 193	103	69	168	Blackburn gave up 15 unearned runs last year. I guess that happens when you strike out so few.
Glen Perkins	26	N/A, 138, 92	5, 28, 151	87	66	134	I don’t think he is going to end the year in the rotation.

The Twins stress throwing strikes and that is reflected by the fact they are all above average in BB rate, with the exception of Liriano. Baker, Liriano, and Slowey make a very nice trio at the top of the rotation, but after them, the quality drops off dramatically. Also, unlike in years past, they don’t have a wave of pitching prospects coming up through the farm system. The other rotation options, which include Boof Bonser, Phillip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey aren’t very good.

The pen is similar to the Royals in that they have a nasty closer but not a whole lot in front of him. Jesse Crain is solid, Matt Guerrier and Craig Breslow are decent, but that’s pretty much it. They have been rumored to be in on Juan Cruz. That would be a good idea.

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Comments

This is the anti-Tigers rotation, featuring a lot of guys with fantastic control, huh?

by APV on Feb 24, 2009 8:34 PM EST reply actions

I wonder how much of this is development and how much is a deliberate attempt to acquire pitchers with great control.

by ClarkM on Feb 24, 2009 10:47 PM EST up reply actions

Thanx Clark, well done. The Twins on paper aren’t a scary team. However, they always seem to be in the mix at the end. Of all the teams in our division, I feel they are the biggest force to be reckoned with. They play tough baseball. That said, I don’t see how they’ve improved much over the winter and if any of their core players fall back to earth, they could be in a world of hurt. The depth doesn’t seem to be there.

by larzko on Feb 25, 2009 10:57 AM EST reply actions

De. Young could improve (and Franky L could return to form), but I’m not sure that will happen. I think they were fleeced in that TBR trade.

by JulioBernazard on Feb 25, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

I’m reccing this out of appreciation for the whole series.

Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.

by westbrook on Feb 25, 2009 10:53 PM EST reply actions

They just lost a little more of that starting depth – Bonser is reportedly out all of 2009 as he has a partially torn labrum (I believe).

He may not have been likely to factor into the rotation, but they were planning on him being in the bullpen, at least as a long man (which may not be a bad idea for them, being that most of their rotation is young and has to prove they can be effective in their second seasons), so I think their bullpen just got a bit thinner.

Just my 2 cents.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Feb 25, 2009 11:22 PM EST reply actions

It takes more than five starters … Bonser is a significant loss for them.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Feb 26, 2009 12:15 AM EST up reply actions

Especially since he is probably better than Perkins.

by ClarkM on Feb 26, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

Bonser is rumored to be out for the season.

by JulioBernazard on Feb 26, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, big thanks for this, Clark.

by painaxl on Feb 26, 2009 10:09 AM EST reply actions

I looked up Pat Neshek and he will be out for all of 2009. That’s good news for us.

by Toxicadam on Feb 26, 2009 11:05 AM EST reply actions

In my head Crede was more fearsome than he actually appears to be here, examined statistically.

by Jackdaw on Feb 27, 2009 1:32 AM EST reply actions

I thought the same thing and figured that Crede must have put up good numbers against the Tribe to skew my perception.

Turns out not really, he put up an 812 OPS against the Tribe in ’04 but has been about 200 points less than that over the past 4 seasons (aggregately).

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Feb 27, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

This is all totally subjective, but I feel like the Twins don’t even try at the major league level, and still do well. Its as if their management team was just introduced to MLB, looked over the landscape and said “Screw it, let’s not sweat over free agents. We get draft picks every year right? Why not just let those guys play? They’ll be cheap. And if one of our players ends up being good, we’ll just trade him before free agency for more young guys. Is this supposed to be hard?”

by dgcambridge on Feb 27, 2009 6:51 PM EST reply actions

I think they have in their own way been playing Moneyball all along, doing a really good job at everything that’s hardest to measure — defense, baserunning, pitching projection — while being pretty bad at the one really easy thing to measure, hitting. That would explain their consistently being a few games better than expected, despite having produced exactly two good hitters in the past 15 years.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Feb 27, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

Let’s not forget that hellhole of a ballpark they play in. They do a great job of building their team to play in that abomination. It’s got to be worth several games a year, between the familiarity of the Twinkies with the park and the difficulty of other teams who may only play a series or two there. It will be interesting to see how things change when they play on grass in a couple years.

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Mar 2, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

When they play on frozen grass in a couple of years. If the Tigers and White Sox and Indians have to deal with crappy weather, what will the Twins do outdoors in April?

by odradek on Mar 2, 2009 11:56 PM EST up reply actions