Mariners 1B - yet another former Indian
Aren't they supposed to send us a second baseman every time they do this?
almost 3 years ago
Jay
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I understand you’re pulling for the guy, but you have to live in reality, Chuck. Garko has a limited ceiling; there are few trades he’s capable of making us regret, even at his best.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Every now and then lightning strikes. I want a show of hands from everybody who thought that Lee’s “ceiling” was the CY. Just what I thought – nobody, me included.
This is exactly what makes lightning, well, lightning. It’s utterly unpredictable. Go ahead and try to predict it and you’ll end up looking mighty foolish.
See, I’ll take that chance – it’s the kinda chance the Indians management hasta take. We cannot build or team on sure things – can’t afford ‘em. The Tribe needs at least one over-the-top guy every year – at least one. Its easy to project Santana or Brantley or Miller. It’s very, very difficult to project a guy who’s had a bad run like Lee, or Carmona after the relief disaster. I think that Garko’s gonna bounce back – big time – after a below par ’08.
OK, now tell me – who’s your dark horse?
My Dark Horse involves the good getting better: David Huff exceeding his estimated potential by replicating his ’08 AAA numbers, but in the bigs this time.
Gutz was my former Dark Horse, so by virtue of his absence I’m less optimistic about his future, and feel a little foolish for raving about him. But man, his glove was sick. I think he’ll be reasonably good in Seattle.
I definitely would have chosen Gutz as My Dark Horse. But I’ll have to go with Garko or Reyes.
Admittedly, there aren’t many choices… Grady, Vic, Jhonny, Shoppach, DeRosa, Lee and Carmona probably aren’t eligible.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
You got it – those guys are easy picks. I want you to go out on a limb and pick a guy – like Cliff – who everybody thinks is a palooka. LIke Garko.
You want a dark horse? I’ll take Travis Hafner.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Feb 27, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m gonna come out and admit that I have irrationally high expectations for Laffey.
by Logodaedalus on Feb 27, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
When he was a prospect? Sure it was. He was supposed to be a #1A or #2 starter, and sometimes those guys win Cy Youngs.
First basemen with no speed or defensive skills and minimal power rarely even make an All-Star team.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Did I what? Predict it? Of course not. But he was widely viewed as having a pretty high ceiling, and as you may have noticed with Marte, I tend to believe the scouting reports when it comes to advanced prospects.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Well all I can say is: I gotta see it with my own eyes before I buy into it. Lee always looked like a 3 or maybe a 2. A power pitcher with a 92 mph fastball and a plus curve who had some issues with control/location. Not exactly Sam McDowell – and Sam never won a CY. I never dreamed he’d command his pitches like he did last year. I’ll bet most of the scouts saw him the same way – back in ’02.
Part of winning a Cy Young is just timing; Sam certainly had good enough seasons to win one, and then you have guys like Colon who win it with a season that’s only mildly impressive.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Yeah, well Sam never had a single season as good a ERA+, or K/BB or as Lee did last. He did have a lower ERA and WHIP in ’69, but, as good as Sam was, he never had a year like Cliff did last year.
Well, it just so happens that I recently read (and in fact _commissioned_) a really great article on this very subject … flipping over to pp 114-115 … Ryan ranks Lee’s 2008 ahead of Sam’s 1965, but it isn’t all that clear-cut. Lee has the edge on ERA+ and W-L (feh), but Sam pitched 50 more innings and prevented 10 more runs (per PRAR), and he got 155 more strikeouts. Also, Sam probably had several other seasons better than Lee’s second-best. That is, Lee’s second-best so far.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
The PRAR is like many of some of the more “advanced” stats. Lots of speculation in there. Was it really 10 runs or could it be 9? 6 maybe? or maybe Sam in ‘65 didn’t really prevent as many runs as Cliff did last year – isn’t that possible? It surely is conjectural – dispite the use of exact numbers and voodoo stats.
Bottom line: the is no question – IMHO – that Sam had better “stuff” the Cliff. It’s also clear, to me at least, that Cliff’ could command his pitches and fool hitters better than Sam. This is purely conjectural on my part – just like PRAR is.
OK, you’re on. It’s a sucker bet, but I’ll bet you a cold one that Garko OPSs at a higher rate than Hafner next year. You in?
Of course not. This is dark horse time. If you’re saying Garko is a better bet, all that means is that my dark horse pick is ballsier than yours.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I’m somewhat interested how he’s going to do over a full season. Oh the strikeouts, oh the homeruns.
by hans on Feb 27, 2009 2:38 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I’ll take this opportunity to post a really awesome article in the PI.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 27, 2009 8:25 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
That was pretty slick, good link. I wish more professional coaches had that attitude. I’ve heard Wedge doesn’t broker s*it in his locker room, either.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Feb 27, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
I used to dream about a stat line that had 500 AB’s next to Russell Branyan’s name for a single season.
by I'd give my legs for Wegz on Feb 27, 2009 1:31 PM EST reply actions
That Andy marte is dreaming about Russ Branyan goes so far toward explaining so much.
by FredOx on Feb 27, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s a shame you didn’t have the restraint to keep from posting this pointless comment, but I will have the restraint to keep from arguing it.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I’ll be tickled pink – and so should you – if he battles his way back to the 40 roster. He may have it in him, but he’s gonna hafta battle hard. I hope he’s got it in him.
Marte doesn’t have the “option” of making it onto the 40-man roster, he has to make it onto the 25-man roster.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
OK, I’ve been corrected. That’s even better. I’ll be beside myself with joy if he makes it to the 25. He’s got another chance – let’s see if he can force his way up to the Big League Club.
I really like Andy Marte, but not nearly as much as most of you.
by I'd give my legs for Wegz on Mar 5, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
I always thought Russ Branyan would come in handy when the aliens arrive. Maybe its because he reminds me of Merrill Hess
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