Free Agents
by Tribe Alive on Feb 3, 2009 12:43 PM EST
279 comments
Does everyone think the Indians are done with free agency? I think they are but I dont understand why they wouldnt spend a little over budget and grab one of the guys available for a low price.
Some of the guys available offensively would help this team tremendously. I am speficically talking about Abreu and Dunn. I think we would be the sure fire favorites in the division with one of them. And, at this point they are going to go for possible one year deals anywhere from 8 million to 12 million.
If not a hitter, I think Glavine, Pedro, or Schilling would be very intriguing. I know they are older and a shell of their former selves but they all could be a nice, cheap option to help solidify the rotation. I would much rather Pedro or Schilling pitching in a big game than Sowers or Zach Jackson.
Like I said, I know it wont happen but why not. And dont give me the money excuse because if a move like that wins this team a championship then every cent is more than worth it. I saw the White Sox are interested in Abreu...that hurts...
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If just about everyone but the Yankees is using the money excuse, I feel it may be a valid argument. That’s the reason these guys are still out there. At this point, 8 to 12 million for one year may be a steal compared to past years, but it doesn’t mean it’s possible for this team to take on. I love Dunn too. It’s just not going to happen.
Don't forget to pay your parking ticket.
by TheVanillaGorilla on Feb 3, 2009 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think the sabermetric revolution with regard to defense has hit a critical mass of front offices, at the same time as third-grade level risk assessment with respect to injuries, at the same time as the recession.
If you look at the better players still available, just about every one is a significant injury risk or a defensive liability. This is not a coincidence.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i’d be interested to hear you clarify what the impact of the defensive sabermetric revolution on the critical mass of front offices was, exactly. are you saying that new techniques which more accurately and effectively guage players’ defensive value has led front offices to overvalue defense relative to offense? or that sabermetrics have allowed front offices, now, to properly value defense relative to offense?
by emil minty on Feb 3, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not answering for Jay but I’d say it’s the latter. Front offices are getting a better handle on how important defense is and how it needs to be measured.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right. And, a better handle quantifying how badly certain players are damaging their teams’ run prevention over the course of a long season.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was talking with an older friend of mine and he told me about a tryout he participated in for the Giants when he was younger. He said the scouts lined up outfielders and had them throw from the outfield into a bucket. If you couldn’t throw it at least near the bucket, the scouts waved you off the field. It didn’t matter if you could crush the ball, if you were a defensive liability they didn’t want to bother with you. Which says, (1) maybe Jack Cust can throw a ball from the outfield close to a bucket, (2) maybe run prevention was recognized as more valuable back in the old days and we are only now re-assessing its value.
by odradek on Feb 4, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it varies a lot from team to team and always has, but I think your (2) is basically right. It wasn’t that long ago that supposedly savvy people basically just said, point-blank, defense doesn’t really matter, focus on run creation and ignore defense as long as it isn’t atrocious, and for LF or 1B, you can ignore defense even if it is atrocious. The ease and confidence with which offense could be quantified — and this was pre-BIP studies, which makes it funnier — led to a tendency to assume that since defense (allegedly) couldn’t be quantified accurately or reliably, you were better of ignoring it entirely.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d argue that while they thought they were putting a premium on defense they weren’t valuing it at all the right way, so it’s only doing them slightly better than teams that ignored defense. Grady gets waved off that field.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 4, 2009 4:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not true. Grady can throw it near the bucket.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 8:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Does it matter if it rolls from second base?
I’m assuming this is the Emanski-esque drill with the bucket at home plate.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 4, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Does it matter if this whole line of discussion is a load of crap?
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As I read this thread, the thing that pops out for me, is that everyone focused on your point about measuring defense and nobody wanted to know about your “third-grade level risk assessment” point. I’m not sure why you think front offices are operating at third grade level? Perhaps you discussed this thoroughly elsewhere? Could you direct me to that other discussion or would you care to expand?
by elsandito on Feb 4, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m saying that they are now operating at a third-grade level or better. Before, they were not even at a third-grade level.
The multi-year deals that have been handed out for years never made the least bit of sense from a risk-assessment perspective. You take a guy with the potential to have an MVP-caliber season, and you guarantee him an MVP-sized salary for seven years. That money is guaranteed, but obviously the performance is far from guarnateed, particularly with regard to pitcher, who are so likely to miss some amount of time over even a three- or four-year deal.
Well, the insurance companies wised up around 2002 and became unwilling to underwrite one dime of that level of insanity. It was only a matter of time before front offices became infiltrated with adults with analytical skills — not even talking about sabermetrics here, just basic, sound business decision-making — and that to some degree is what has flattened this market.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m such a dreamer, I want Manny for $12 M.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 3, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Er, where would you play Abreu? At least we can hide Dunn’s horrible defense at first.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 1:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agree… any offensive FA would have to be able to defend at either 1B or LF to a decent level – unless they were cheap enough to be displaced if Hafner proves healthy and productive.
Carmona for Cy Young 2009
by danvail on Feb 3, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we could definitely use him in RF with Choo playing some LF. I know it would be a tight roster but at that point I would just release Delucci.
by Tribe Alive on Feb 3, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d rather him play LF in Cleveland. There’s less ground to cover in LF at Progressive Field.
by xrickx on Feb 3, 2009 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hello xrickx,
I agree with this if we did sign Abreu – it’s arguable that Choo is the younger, better defensive version of Abreu in RF (good range, strong arm, etc.), so I’d rather leave Choo out there in RF, where he started to get adjusted too last year. Personally, I’d rather keep Choo in one spot in the OF instead of his switching back and forth, and being that Frankie G is no longer here, I don’t see why Choo would need to move to LF for anyone unless he’s an OBVIOUS upgrade defensively in RF, and even though I agree with Jay that Abreu is not a BAD Ofer as some reports are suggesting, it’s likely Choo is at least Abreu’s equal out there now, due to the difference in age.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Feb 3, 2009 8:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed…and bringing up Gutz is something I am not sure people have thought about. We played last year with Dellucci, Gutz, Choo, Francisco, and Sizemore so why cant we replace Gutz with Abreu or Dunn…
by Tribe Alive on Feb 4, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure I follow what you’re saying.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 4, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because with our DH out for all of June, July and August, we essentially had a roster spot to waste, and that probably will not be the case this year. Ordinarily, in order to carry five outfielders, you have to go with only one backup infielder or with six relievers instead of seven. I don’t think either of those are good options. Plus, we already have a fifth outfielder option — and a righthander at that — in DeRosa.
This is not really the point anyway. If you keep Delllucci as a fifth outfielder, he’s basically worthless in that role, so it’s not really any different than releasing him. It still comes back to whether acquiring a new 3rd/4th outfielder is really worth the extra money, and whether there is any extra money..
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think reports of Abreu’s horrible defense are pretty exaggerated, and he will be well motivated to improve. It’s not like we’ve got someone stellar out there now.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
An interesting discussion goes on in the comments re: the fluctuation of defensive metrics specifically targeted at Abreu.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty happy with what Shap has done in the off season given our payroll constraints. Every off season we want to be swept off our feet by some winter acquisition who we think will be the key to us finally winning it all. Last winter, many of us were convinced that it was Jason Bay. This winter it’s Benadam Dunsheets. But maybe we are the ones we’ve been waiting for. Jeez, the next 9 days can’t pass by fast enough.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Feb 3, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i don’t think wanting Ben Sheets this year is like wanting Jason Bay last year.
Sheets is just so cheap relative to his potential for 2009 that he seems like too good of a bargain to pass up. Bay made sense, but he was not a bargain like Sheets looks to be.
by KevinV on Feb 3, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly…something like this would put us over the top!
by Tribe Alive on Feb 3, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There is a reason the Brewers, who desperately need starting pitching, refuse to invest in Sheets. His contract demands probably have something to do with it, but the MIL medical staff has the most intimate knowledge of Sheets’ condition. That they’re staying away, even from a bargain, is pretty telling.
by xrickx on Feb 3, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
umm ok, let’s offer him $600K.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 3, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really, you want Pedro? Why, because he’s a big name? I don’t see any reason to think he’ll be an effective pitcher this year. I’d rather take my chances on Jeremey Sowers than waste money signing him.
Dunn, of course, is a different story. I’d love to get him for $8 million but I don’t know if the Indians can afford that price. From what I hear, the budget is already spent. (And to your point about the money being worth it if the Indians win a championship, that word IF is the key. No move guarentees the Indians making the playoffs, let alone winning a championship.)
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I see what you mean about Pedro but someone like Sheets is very, very intriguing.
by Tribe Alive on Feb 3, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course. Ben Sheets is much younger than Pedro.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the basic point, but while Sowers could and arguably should break through, at the moment, he feels like a longer shot than any former Cy Young winner, up to and including Dennis Martinez.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec for a Presidente reference. He was irrationally my favorite player as a kid, before I truly became an Indians fan.
by Voltaire on Feb 5, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good idea! Let’s sign Bonds to the minimum and call it a day.
by Toxicadam on Feb 3, 2009 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why the smart a$$ comment. I didnt suggest that did I?
I suggested an OF that is still playing and putting up good numbers. One that will cost us a lot less than we ever imagined.
by Tribe Alive on Feb 3, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just because I can now buy a 500k house for 325k doesn’t mean I can afford it.
Also, Bonds would give you a better production per dollar than those other two guys.
by Toxicadam on Feb 3, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty sure Bonds could get on base at a .370 clip and that’s me being pessimistic.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree. I’d say that 400 is certainly within the realm of possibility.
Step 1: Sign Bonds.
Step 2: Spring Greg Anderson.
Step 3: Profit.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 4, 2009 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i feared for a ‘junk in a box’ image …
by macasson on Feb 6, 2009 3:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.370? thats very pessimistic.
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 4, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How’s he supposed to see this if you don’t use capital letters?
by odradek on Feb 3, 2009 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It would be interesting to be able to see inside this market. It appears that many teams are near their budget limit. But I also suspect that some of them are trying to get some of these guys on the cheap [for example, Dunn for around 5 MM for 1 year]. I would guess that Shapiro is thinking this way, but with a very strict upper limit on what he will offer. And it only takes one team to bid it up – we’ll probably never know.
by CaptainPenny on Feb 3, 2009 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I just hope he is considering something like that. Dunn for 5 million would be Dunn for a Delucci price…that is more than worth it!!!
by Tribe Alive on Feb 3, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Would that be throwing good money after bad? Yeah, Dunn at 5 mil is solid, but if it caused us to cut Delucci and sit Ben Fransisco, we’re not not talking talking about Dunn at 5 mil anymore. It becomes Dunn at 9 mil (cuz we’d have to pay Looch, still, right?), and no PT for Fransisco (who is an alright batter and cheap as heck)
Dunn at 9 mil might still be worth it, but that’s pretty far over budget. And championships are kind of a crapshoot, so even with another we wouldn’t be a lock.
by BrianRose on Feb 3, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
that is the key component of ben fran’s value – he’s worth nothing and therefore makes nothing
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 3, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming we are already at budget including paying Delucci, then signing Dunn for 5 MM puts us 5 MM over budget (not 9) regardless of what we do with Delucci. In any case, I only used Dunn as an example – I suspect Abreu might make more sense (in the same price range). We also may have an option on BenFran (?).
by CaptainPenny on Feb 3, 2009 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hello Captain,
I believe you’re correct about BenFran having an option left. Of the two, I’d rather have Abreu than Dunn, being that Abreu is a more well-rounded offensive player and considerably better than Dunn in the OF (yes, even if Abreu isn’t quite the defender he once was – Dunn is NOT good out there; BenFran is better defensively).
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Feb 3, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Something I’ve been pondering….didn’t we underspend our budget the last couple seasons? Not sure why I remember reading that, but it would really undermine the cries of the ownership/FO about overspending the budget this year.
by supermarioelia on Feb 3, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
From my understanding, it’s more of a soft budget, or at least a narrow budget range. It’s like zero-based budgeting—Shapiro can spend it if you can justify to the boss why the incremental expenditure is worthwhile.
An increase in spending between 2007 and 2008 was justified by the expected increase in attendance after a strong 2007 season. Attendance is Cleveland’s main revenue source, and last year’s showing killed the attendance expectation for 2009. For the same reasons—attendance revenue—the Indians maybe underspent in the 2008off-season (was there really anything worth buying, anyway?), they’ll likely overspend in 2009.
by xrickx on Feb 3, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are they actually crying about it? They added about as much as they shed, and the economy obviously is in bad shape. Most other teams are in better and less-suffering markets and have not done as much.
Sabathia + Blake = Wood + DeRosa + Pavano [roughly]
Byrd’s salary sucked up by incremental raises for Cliff, Grady, Victor, Jhonny, etc.
A significant part of the underspending in prior years was essentially eaten up by pre-front-loading Hafner’s contract, where they elected to pay him $7 million of the contract extension prior to the expiration of his existing deal, i.e., in 2007 and 2008. They saved some money on Sabathia’s and Byrd’s contracts after the trades last year, but not on Blake’s, and they took a decent beating on ticket sales.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the Indians did make a late surge in signing some talent (Haley and Fedroff) after they traded Byrd, and I wonder whether that money was from the draft budget, or if the Indians threw some of the Byrd savings at the draft?
Haley was the Indians’ second round pick, and I can’t imagine they’d have drafted him if they didn’t think have it in the budget to sign him. Fedroff was known to be a tough sign, but Cleveland gave him a nice piece of change ($750K) out of the 7th round to convince him not to go back to school.
by xrickx on Feb 4, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My hunch is that these were unconnected. Maybe some of the real late-round fliers, I guess.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The real point is that every team that employed a similar draft strategy made a “late surge.” There were a lot of deadline deals in general, and there probably will be every year.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So my FanShot about this from 4 days ago wasn’t sufficient? I don’t get this at all. There’s literally nothing new here and everyone is acting like there is.
by NickFantana on Feb 3, 2009 6:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is about the 5th installment anyway Iron. There is literally nothing new to talk about and we’re dying for baseball.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah pretty much.
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 4, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I refuse. But thanks for the encouraging words. Maybe I should pretend to be offended?
by NickFantana on Feb 3, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t listen to Jay, he’s just a hater.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Funny, some people listen to me precisely because I’m a hater.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brad, I feel like you and I kind of have a posse thing happening.
by NickFantana on Feb 3, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I got your back, Nick.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
its always nice to see this.
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 4, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
love
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 5, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t like Francisco starting at all, and I’m not sold on LaPorta being ready to contribute early on this year…so I think we should cut our losses with Dellucci and sign either Garret Anderson or Ken Griffey Jr., preferably Anderson.
Francisco and Anderson could start off in a platoon to see if Francisco can be a starting MLB OF, but really I think he’s a 4th OF. If Francisco proves he belongs, than Anderson can be our 4th OF and an insurance policy if Hafner does not bounce back. The guy has NEVER hit under .280 in his career. Last year he hit .293 with a .433 SLG. Although he does not have much range he is a very good fielder. He is going to give you production.
I think he would be an upgrade over Francisco. It is also important to have a backup DH IMO…Dellucci is not the answer. Griffey is also apparently healthy…we should at least look into bringing one of these guys in.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 8:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
A) With what money? Cutting Dellucci frees up no money.
B) Griffey?!
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FOR AN EXTRA 3B!
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 4, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
there needs to be a ‘this makes no f–king sense’ in the flag dropdown.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 3, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
rec
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 4, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Griffey, no. I peg Anderson as more of a backup guy, because he’s the type of guy who should be a good pinch-hitter. He makes contact and isn’t much worse against left-handed pitching. But he 1) still thinks he should be starting, 2) is a Boras guy, 3) isn’t a threat on the bases, 4) isn’t a defensive asset.
Plus, Benny really isn’t a platoon guy. He doesn’t really have a split. And neither does Anderson. So…how do you decide who plays on any given day?
Four of Anderson’s last five seasons have been nearly identical to what Francisco did last year. All you’re getting there is name recognition.
by xrickx on Feb 4, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There is some crazy talk in this thread about the potential contracts some of these corner infielders are going to sign. Here are the relevant contracts that have been signed so far this offseason: Ibanez 3/31.5 M, Burrell 2/16 M, and Giambi 1/5.25 M w/ a club option. I don’t think any of these deals are incredible bargains, and I don’t think that is likely to change for Dunn or Abreu just because they haven’t signed their deals yet. There are still plenty of teams that could use their services.
by ClarkM on Feb 3, 2009 9:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think this is a good point though I’m disappointed by its implications.
by NickFantana on Feb 3, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Griffey still had a .353 OBP last season, he is healthy now and did hit 30 home runs with a .372 OBP just 2 years ago…he is still a huge upgrade over what Ben Francisco will give you. And it should only cost $2-3 million to get it done.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 9:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
OPS+ is your friend. Griffey last year had a 101, Anderson 97, and Francisco 100. There is also the age factor, Anderson and Griffey are going the wrong direction, Francisco the right direction.
by ClarkM on Feb 3, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Francisco is getting younger?
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 3, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, Francisco is approaching his “prime” (late 20s to early 30s); Anderson and Griffey are WAY past that “prime” – that’s what ClarkM meant.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Feb 3, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know, I was just teasing
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 4, 2009 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so, like, Ben “Button” Francisco
by cleveland teamer on Feb 4, 2009 9:38 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Button Franciso.
This is the new name. Make it so.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 4, 2009 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
would you pronounce that “fran-KEE-zo”?
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 4, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Button Frankeezo. Exactly.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 4, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hello Belle4Hall19960,
Like Dunn signing for $5 million, I found it hard to believe Griffey will only sign for $2-$3 million; I think he’ll likely won’t sign for less than a 1-year $5-$7 million deal, and that might be undershooting it a bit, based on the current market.
Plus, Griffey is not getting any younger and isn’t the consistent offensive threat he once was; how much better over Francisco will he be NOW. It’s not what he did in his prime that one must compare his offensive production, but what he can do NOW. Is it worth the extra $5-$7 million (plus the extra money from the Dellucci contract) to sign him? I’m not sure (I’m tending toward "no"), but I don’t think the Indians have the money anyway, so it’s even more likely NOT to happen, no offense.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Feb 3, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That all depends if he’s willing to retire. I’m not sure anyone has $3 million for him, and I’m not sure he’s ready to walk away.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I must have missed the memo that the 39-year-old is suddenly going to be healthy in 2009.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, okay. This is the first ever offseason article labeling a player “in much better shape.” I’m sold.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so are you sold on Francisco in LF? Do you think he is the best option out there? How do you think he will do?
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Simul-post, but I think I addressed that below. I’m not sold on him.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
are any of us?
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 3, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And listen I’m not trying to be a dick. But Ken Griffey Jr. isn’t doing anything for me, and this is from a guy who isn’t impressed at all by Ben Francisco. But as far as corner outfielders with weak D and questionable offensive outlooks in 2009 go, I’ll take the one
A) already on the team
B) much younger
C) not battling a long history of injuries.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So what would be the problem with taking a veteran (not Delluci, and real vet) that could stand in and give solid production if Francisco falls on his face? I also think it is important to have somebody that could DH regularly. Listen, Griffey is not my 1st choice, I am trying to be realistic though and understand that we will not sign Ramirez, Dunn or Abreu.
But really if you can get Garret Anderson or Griffey for $2 million or so how do you not do it to have good depth? The other thing about it is if Hafner does not come back the middle of the order is really weak, Anderson or Griffey could hit anywhere in the lineup really.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you really think that A) They would come that cheap and B) they would come that cheap and be cool with a backup role?
by rockemsockem on Feb 3, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because there’s a very good chance that Dellucci will hit just as well as Griffey or Anderson in ‘09, and we’re already paying Dellucci.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and we’re already paying Dellucci
There’s this too. Belle, you still haven’t addressed this quote from you earlier:
we should cut our losses with Dellucci and sign either Garret Anderson or Ken Griffey Jr
I just want so much for Dellucci to slug .470 next year in a limited role. Please, God of Baseball. Please.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
may baseball all year round
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 4, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To further my point, 2009 Marcel projections:
Dellucci: .247/.317/.418
Anderson: 277/.319/.428
Griffey: 248/.336/.434
I’m really surprised Griffey is projected that high, but there still isn’t that much of a difference between the three. So I don’t see what the big gain would be with either of those two over Dellucci.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And here are their 2009 CHONE projections:
Dellucci: .234/.321/.401
Anderson: 271/.315/.422
Griffey: .243/.333/.418
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 3, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Worth noting is that according to UZR Dellucci was -2 in LF last year and Ol’ No Knees was almost -16 between RF and CF. He hasn’t played LF since 2002 if Fangraph’s isn’t lying to me.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course sample size yadda yadda. You can play with playing time and fluctuations for Dellucci if you want but I think any color you use is going to paint Griffey as someone who doesn’t belong in the outfield.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think any color you use is going to paint Griffey as someone who doesn’t belongin the outfieldon a baseball field.
Fixed.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s painful to see his career end this way.
I wish he had hit 500 home runs in Cinci.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let’s not forget that he’s been playing in the weaker league, and with a bandbox for his home ballpark.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not so sure Anderson or Griffey could hit anywhere in the lineup. My problem is you assuming Griffey even provides solid production. I understand what you’re saying—this is what a team like Cleveland has to do, a KMTS if you will—but Ken Griffey Jr. is so BLEGH to me.
Can we get Garret Anderson for $2M is one question (first, will he sign for that and second, do we even have the money) and do we want him is the other. I just don’t like him. He’s a below average hitter with some admittedly good D in left, but age is so critical here.
I know this is a nitpick, but how the hell doesn’t Dellucci qualify as a “real” veteran, and given that what’s the need for a “real” one?
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s no Trot Nixon. Now there’s a real veteran!
by rockemsockem on Feb 3, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Grit, man. It’s all about Grit.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 4, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i would love trot nixon as bench coach
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 4, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This! Benches always perform better when under the watchful eye of Grit Nixon.
Signature to be named later.
by emd2k3 on Feb 4, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s mainly due to fear of pie-face.
Carmona for Cy Young 2009
by danvail on Feb 5, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, so lets say that
A.) Anderson is willing to sign for $2 million.
B.) We have $2 million in wiggle room (we were going to offer Pedro $7 mil)
Would you do it? He would be just as good if not a better hitter than Francisco with MUCH better defense.
About Dellucci…he has been nothing short of horrible since coming here. OPS+ of 76 and 85. No room for somebody like that man.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, I wouldn’t do it. Anderson has had one year in the last 4 years with OPS+ over 100 and he is an average left fielder. At 36 he isn’t going to improve either.
by rockemsockem on Feb 3, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well he was better than average in LF last year (Anderson that is), but his past four years look like the Tribe’s bullpen. Positive defense, negative defense, etc. etc. Of course, age bets against an improvement.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think we were going to offer Pedro $7 million, and definitely not guaranteed, and definitely not after we acquired DeRosa and his salary. It doesn’t add up.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he just meant a quality veteran player, someone who used to be really good.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I watched Griffey play for the White Sox in 2008. No thanks. He looked terrible.
by odradek on Feb 3, 2009 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And in ’07 Griffey had an OPS+ of 119. He is also apparently in a lot better shape than last year and ready to perform at 2007 level. Like I said I would prefer Anderson anyways. I think we should go after one or the other as insurance for Hafner and if – or when Francisco has a sophomore slump. They are going into the wrong direction but they are proven MLB hitters. There is no way Garret Anderson does not hit .290 with a .430+ SLG.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 9:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No offense, but Anderson isn’t getting any younger; at some point, he will hit less than .290 with less than a .430+ SLG – the question is, will that be 2009 or not?
Again, though, the Indians don’t have any more money and it would cost the extra $4 million (I think) for Dellucci’s contract, plus whatever you have to pay Anderson or Griffey, and I can’t see these guys taking less than $5-$7 million/1 year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more in the $8-$10 mill./year range, so that’s another $10+ million – the Indians just don’t have that.
I think ClarkM’s point is a valid one – Francisco nearly equaled Griffey’s OPS+ and outdid Anderson’s OPS+, plus keep in mind that Francisco was put in the #3 spot last season, a spot no one expects him to be. Put him in the bottom part of the order, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Francisco put up a comparable or even slightly better OPS+ in 2009. After all, Francisco was new and trying to adjust to the league’s adjustments to him – seeing him struggle a bit and fall off from his hot start was to be expected, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make adjustments and be a consistent hitter in the bottom of the order. And, based on cost and age/injury factors, the Indians are not convinced these other guys (Dunn, Abreu, Griffey, Anderson) are better options than Francisco as their starting LFer (taking into account both offense and defense, as well as how little Francisco is costing them).
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Feb 3, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the reply.
I’d like to have one or the other as insurance encase Francisco or Hafner are not productive and LaPorta is not ready to contribute. I’m not saying give them 600 AB’s you know what I mean…I just don’t see how we can have Dellucci as our 4th OF. And everything I’ve read, from ESPN.Com to MLB.com and tons in between is that Griffey wants $2-3 million and even less for Anderson.
I just think it would be something to look into.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Garrett Anderson and Ken Griffey will probably hit about the same as David Dellucci next year, see the projections I posted above. And both of them are too old to play good defense, so I don’t really see any reason either player would help the Indians this year.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Griffey’s OBP the past 2 years has been .353 and .372. Dellucci’s has been .307 and .296…no comparison my man.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Please see my posts above, as I said. I looked up their 2009 projections from two different sources.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with projections is what they see for playing time. And I’m referring to both Dellucci (platoon/minor league talent) and Griffey (injuries). IMO it will be much easier for Dellucci to finish with respectable-looking rate stats because I just don’t believe Griffey’s body can hold up, and Dellucci can always luck into Eduardo Perez splits. Every day over 550 ABs I’d think Griffey outshines Dellucci. But that’s not saying a lot.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 3, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
they are just projections though…the facts state the last two years Griffey has an OBP 60 points higher than Dellucci.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The facts also state that Griffey is much older than Dellucci, and thus due for a large decline.
You do realize that those projections account for the past two years performance which you keep stating, right?
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
whatever man, i really don’t care…i am just not comfortable at all with Francisco/Dellucci in LF. Hope LaPorta will be ready sooner than later cuz we will need him.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not comfortable with that either, but I just don’t think Anderson or Griffey will be that much better than either of our current options.
And if you’re trying to argue that Griffery or Anderson will be better than Dellucci then you should care what the projections say. They’re not always right, but they’re usually pretty close.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, they’re not usually all that close, but they’re the best estimating tools we have nonetheless.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
whatever man, i really don’t care
The crux of the issue. If you don’t care, there is no space for an argument. Let’s move on.
by fwembt on Feb 4, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i’ll say it right now. i am eminently comfortable with ben fran in LF opening day.
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 4, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have to agree that the difference in OBP alone, not to mention the HOF talent level, compels you to take Griffey over Dellucci. It’s not like DD has been all that healthy, either. Is this worth $2 million? That I’m not sure about, but this is not the crazy idea some are making it out to be.
It doesn’t make any difference that we’re already paying Dellucci. If Griffey costs $2 million, that makes him $2 million more expensive than Dellucci. That is the relevant data for the decision.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hey Jay, what your saying is a very valid point, but IMO I think Dellucci is on a very, very short leash to begin with and there is a very good chance he will be DFA sometime during the course of the season. The production he has given since his time in Cleveland warrants a pink slip when you’re playing for a contender. How patient should we be with him if we think we can be in a pennant race? I am not Shapiro, so I don’t know what money if any there is to place with but if there is $2 or 3 million available I’d be safe and go after him or GA. At the very least Griffey is going to give you a .360 OBP and at the very least GA is going to hit .290 with excellent defense, I hope Shapiro at least considers it.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 3, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Griffey will have an OBP above .360? Unlikely.
by odradek on Feb 3, 2009 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson will play excellent defense? Just as unlikely.
by fwembt on Feb 4, 2009 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It matters that we’re already paying Dellucci if we can’t afford Griffey because we’re paying Dellucci (and everyone else). I know that’s a sunk cost, but if Griffey isn’t going to be that much better than Dellucci then why bother?
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dellucci is not the cause of our salary commitments, he’s just a small part.
The key thing is the difference in cost, which is $2 million. Makes no difference if we’re paying Dellucci $20 million or ten cents, only the difference matters.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right, I know. I didn’t say how much we were paying Dellucci, just that we were already paying him. My point was, there’s no reason to go out and get a 4th outfielder if he’s not going to be much of an improvement (if at all) over the one you already have. That’s my point whether we’re paying Dellucci $1 million or $10 million.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 4, 2009 7:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if we could find somebody to take looch and his salary, I’d have no problem offering the savings to Griffey — if it’s Griffey or nobody.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 4, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
meaning: I’d rather have Griffey than Looch (but not by all that much)
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 4, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are we all of the opinion that Francisco is going to be about dead on league average in LF? Both offensively and defensively? I think that’s where I’m at. I mean, it’s not like we’re marching some replacement level scrub out there.
I think in order to replace Button you need someone who is ~120 OPS+ or better. Aka, Dunn or Abreu (or Manny.) Otherwise, I don’t think it’s worth the risk/money.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 4, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Going by the negativity towards Ben on this site, I suspect many think he is going to be below average.
by Toxicadam on Feb 4, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW:
Last week, Greenberg told The Seattle Times that Abreu is now open to the idea of signing a one-year contract. But it’s believed Abreu is still looking for a base salary of at least $10 million. – ESPN
GIVE IT TO HIM.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 4, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really? He was at 842 OPS last year. One year deal without having to give up ANY talent?
Are his projections that bad?
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 4, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
10 million seems like too much.
Signature to be named later.
by emd2k3 on Feb 4, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs pegs his 2008 as worth almost $6 million. This probably had a lot to do with his bad year in the field. A return to normalcy (for him) would probably put his value closer to $10 million.
I’m not saying that’s what he gets. But anyway.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 5, 2009 7:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that after such a large drop, he’s probably likely to be better, but I don’t think he’s likely to be that much better. He is 35 and his defense hasn’t been very good the last several years. He looked old last year and maybe of note, it was his worst season in years, in terms of stolen base success.
Nice work on the quote of my hometown hero, Warren G.
by ClarkM on Feb 5, 2009 8:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, what part of “we do not have 10 million dollars” do you not understand?
Deficit spending is going to come back to impact the budget at some future point … like July.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
[SOMONE ELSE] GIVE IT TO HIM
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 4, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
[SOMEONE ELSE] GIVE IT TO HIM
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 4, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You forgot “READ THIS MARK SHAPIRO!”
by woodsmeister on Feb 4, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And thats “group think” taking the disatisfaction with a LF posting an OPS+ around 100 to an extreme. He’ll be below avg. in comparison to LFs in general, but he’ll likely sit around an OPS+ of 100 next year as well this will be better production out of a LF starter than we’ve had since Crisp manned the position.
by hans on Feb 5, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think the groupthink charge is warranted. It makes sense to be dissastisfied with Francisco as an everyday left fielder with no realistic option if he fails. An OPS+ of 100 is solidly below average for a LF, although I have argued that among LF, he will make up the distance on defense, but you can’t fault folks for focusing on a LF’s hitting.
The bigger problem with Francisco, I believe, is that folks perceive a significant downside risk with him. He has been extremely streaky in his limited time in the majors so far, and there is a legitimate concern that once exposed in an everyday role, the scouting will catch up with him, and he’ll post a 580 OPS for three months. In other words, his base projection may be league average (that’s my argument), but the chance that he’ll totally crater out is uncomfortably high.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You expect BFran to catch up to any group of players on defense?
LFers must be truly terrible.
by afh4 on Feb 5, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, come on, he’s not that bad — he can play CF in a pinch, not that I’d like for him to.
And yes, LF are more or less terrible as a group.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i like francisco’s arm a lot. i like how he handles fly balls just fine. but he looks like a deer in headlights for anything hit on a line.
by Brick. on Feb 5, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that is basically how I see him. He’s got good raw tools out there, but he looks totally inept a little more often than he should.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is how I used to play outfield
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 5, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Francisco actually played a fair amount of CF as a minor leaguer. I’m not saying he was good, but I’m assuming he wouldn’t have gotten thrown out there game after game if he was utterly incapable of manning the position.
by APV on Feb 5, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe that a LFer has the most value taken away in positional adjustment for anyone other than a first baseman or a DH.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 5, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t mean “I believe” as me proposing a theory of mine, just that this is how I recall it.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 5, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Me proposing a theory of mine. That’s new.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 5, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think if anyone can avoid a severe negative swing in his second big league year its actually Ben Francisco. He’s got no LHP/RHP batting split weakness to speak of (and this goes back a few years) and stepping away from the stats, the perception is that he accomplishes this with a short (i.e. fewer mechanical points to screw up) compact swing. He’s not that good, but I think he’s a bit more reliable to put up those "not that good’ stats.
by hans on Feb 5, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Then why is he often terrible for 4-6 weeks at a time?
by Jay on Feb 5, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BIP variance, hey consistent swings doesn’t equal consistent results all the time (i.e. small sample sizes of a month or so). About 75% of his plate appearances in 2008 resulting in BIP.
by hans on Feb 7, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
should be “consistent swings do not always equal consistent results”
by hans on Feb 7, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I look at this stuff a lot, and the variance seems pretty large.
by Jay on Feb 7, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I get that. I guess I’m running into an issue here, that most of Ben’s plate appearances turn into BIP than the avg. player introducing a whole mess of variance out of his control. His repeatable skill is likely a low K. His BIP breakdown is interesting because he doesn’t beat the ball into the ground (34.2 GB) and doesn’t hit line drives that much (18.3 LD), but does put it in the air a decent amount (38.0 FB). Couple this with his excellent bat speed and you see a doubles hitter able to pull the ball over the shortened LF walls of most AL stadiums. Yeah he can have a crazy variation in his BABIP like any hitter can, especially one that doesn’t hit LDs that often, but if his BABIP is neutralized I’ll stand on my initial point that based on observational reports, his shortened swing is less likely to suffer mechanical disturbances and more likely to result in consistent contact.
by hans on Feb 13, 2009 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i said it above. ben fran is going to be pretty much entirely league average. and i am very OK with that right now.
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 4, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Same
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 4, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I am too negative but I think Francisco is going to have a bad year. I don’t think he will put up an OPS+ of 100. After a hot start he stunk it up after the All-Star Break. 86 K’s compared to 40 BB in 447 AB. Him and Dellucci had almost the the same Isolated Power last year. He is going into his sophomore season, and even if he gives you an OPS+ of 100 when you consider his defense he is below an average player overall. I hope I am wrong and he has a good year but I am also hoping if he plays the way I think he does Shapiro and Wedge will be ready to go to LaPorta or Crowe.
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 4, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Francisco’s defense has been overrated in some quarters, but he’s not bad. Remember that most regular LF have pretty atrocious defense, so Francisco is probably going to end up significantly above average at that position.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh really? Griffey is ready to perform at 2007 level?!?! Is that all it takes? Then the Indians should be fine, because I hear that Hafner is in a lot better shape and ready to perform at a 2006 level. So the offense should be just fine.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 3, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point – Griffey has dealt with injuries (I think he’s had leg and back problems in recent years), so he’s hardly a lock to return to close to his prime form, just like we’re not sure what to expect from Hafner. And Hafner is in his early 30s; Griffey is in his late 30s, not to mention Hafner doesn’t have much wear-and-tear defensively (mostly DH, occasional 1B) as compared to Griffey (many years in CF, several years in RF).
All the more reason why the Indians have not jumped at any of these guys; they’d likely be cautious even if they had the money, which by all indications they don’t.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Feb 3, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Know who we should sign? Me. I’m about Griffey’s age, and I’m as likely to match Griffey’s 2007 numbers as Griffey is. Plus, I’d sign for $100 and a case of Christmas Ale.
by FredOx on Feb 4, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You’re not a very good negotiator, are you?
Signature to be named later.
by emd2k3 on Feb 4, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who is going to give you a case of Christmas Ale in February? This time of year, anyone that HAS a case would gladly give you $1M rather than the Christmas Ale.
by lenred on Feb 5, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
11. and 1 nosferatu. just drank last octoberfest last night.
by Brick. on Feb 5, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but I bet I’ve got the last three in Philadelphia.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
there can’t be too many more than mine floating around Chicago.
by Brick. on Feb 5, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t GLBC stuff widely distributed in Chicagoland?
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 5, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gay Lesbian Bisexual What?
/kidding.
Signature to be named later.
by emd2k3 on Feb 5, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of which, when I tell people I read LGT regularly, they always give me a weird look…sounds like LGBT apparently.
by supermarioelia on Feb 5, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
right, we are very accomodating to Lesbians, Gay people and Transgender peope. We just really don’t like Bisexuals.
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 5, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i wouldn’t say widely, but it’s usually anywhere you buy good beer. but what will happen is place A will have dort, ed fitz and burning river and place B might have most of the usuals and nosferatu but for some reason not have holy moses. come christmas ale time, it’s tougher to find. not all places that have GLBC get it. for whatever reason i have the hardest time finding B.O.S.
in bars, it’s similar. the places with good beer might feature one on tap, but you never know which it will be. and you can find 2 or 3 of their beers in bottle at those places all the time, but which it will be is a crapshoot. this year a couple places i go had CA on tap, something i only found 1 other time in the past. i’ve had ed fitz, nos feratu and even B.O.S. once on tap.
by Brick. on Feb 5, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know what you can do with that, right?
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 5, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I initially read that as “my mom can pierce the sky”
by Logodaedalus on Feb 6, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Would you give up a case for $1M? I’m not offering, just asking….
by lenred on Feb 6, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The only non-Dunn/Abreu guy I like is Moises Alou.
He knows he’s only getting a one year deal, he knows he’s cheap, but I guess earlier this offseason he and the Phillies didn’t see eye-to-eye on playing time. I’m not sure what his expectations are. If he’s healthy, he gets 50 starts. He pinch hits. He can DH against a tough lefty. I’m not sure he’ll even get a major league deal.
If there’s an injury, I don’t think Alou holds up playing every day. But if there’s an injury, is Dellucci really the answer every day either? Even worse, chances are it’ll be Alou who is injured. Then you’ve gotta go fishing for a 4th OF or pull up one of the AAA guys.
I’ve been fascinated with Alou for years. If only his body wasn’t giving up…
by xrickx on Feb 4, 2009 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve also always liked Alou. And if we’re going to add someone, it should be a righty hitter, someone who gives us a way to start two out of three righties in the outfield against a tough lefty. I know people want to build depth alongside Francisco, but being able to leverage the platoon with Choo in some games arguably is more important. Right now, we can’t take Choo out of the lineup without leaving Francisco and Dellucci in.
by Jay on Feb 4, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“If only his body wasn’t giving up”? You could say the same thing about Griffey. Alou’s body gave up three years ago. How long will it take to establish that fact? He’s 42 and has played in 98, 87 and 15 games over the past three seasons.
by odradek on Feb 4, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And his hands stink like pee!
Signature to be named later.
by emd2k3 on Feb 4, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would not say the same thing about Griffey. Griffey’s skills have declined. His rate stats have declined. Of course, Griffey’s peak was just ridiculous, so it’d be hard for him not have slipped. There’s been no such decline in Alou. We can look at it one of two ways:
Alou is probably less likely than Griffey to be healthy. But between injury spurts, Alou has been as dominant a hitter as he is when he’s been healthy. If I’m taking the risk, I’m going with the guy who still hits like a madman.
by xrickx on Feb 5, 2009 1:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I edited that and did not include my, “look at it one of two ways,” so disregard that preface to the next comment.
by xrickx on Feb 5, 2009 1:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My point is: Alou doesn’t still hit like a madman. There is no such decline in his numbers, because he hasn’t played. He’s hit like a deadman.
Alou exists as a good hitter only as an ideal. And such unrealistic expectation is now another year older. At some point—perhaps after five seasons of relative inactivity—everyone will have to concede that he can no longer hit.
by odradek on Feb 5, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alou has hit, when healthy.
2006- OPS+ 132 in 345 ABs
2007- OPS+ 138 in 328
2008- OPS+ 106 in 49
He strikes out as much as he walks and hits for a really high average.
Also, he is the only member of the 97 Marlins that does not bring tears to my eyes and steam out of my ears.
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 5, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2006 is three seasons ago. Luis Gonzalez was good three seasons ago. Andruw Jones was good three seasons ago. If you want a 42-year-old guy on your roster who is good for 330 ABs, if you’re lucky, good luck.
by odradek on Feb 5, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but we wouldn’t be counting on him for 330 ABs. More like 1/2 that. In 2007, he did what he did in 2006, and that was 2 seasons ago. 2008 is basically a blank. Any data of Alou being healthy in the recent past indicates he is a good hitter. Assuming he is healthy, we can reasonably assume he will be good. This is not the same as Andruw Jones, who has some really bad numbers since his good season 3 years ago.
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 5, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He isn’t healthy and hasn’t been for three years. And he’s not getting younger. I don’t get it. These older players get the benefit of the doubt long past when it is apparent they can’t play.
You’d want this guy for 160 at bats?
by odradek on Feb 5, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes! Do you really think, if given 160 ABs- mainly against tough lefties (at DH or LF), spelling Hafner, Choo, and Francisco- that he wouldn’t hit something like .340 with some pop? What makes you think this?
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 5, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I will admit, the projection systems aren’t on my side.
CHONE projects an OPS of .779 and Marcel says .817. Neither of these would be a disaster, mind you, but I think they are way pessimistic. Maybe they are weighting his 49 ABs in 08 too heavily.
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 5, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Forty-nine at bats is a warning sign for a 42-year-old. Or it should be.
And, no, I wouldn’t expect him to hit .340. That’s insane.
by odradek on Feb 5, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 5, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is insane. It may be a bit of an overstatement, but it is also what he has done the last 2 seasons, which is why he is so intriguing. The warning sign is that he can’t stay healthy, it says nothing on his ability to mash when he is fit.
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 5, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Come on, Dayton. He’s missed more than two-thirds of the games played in the past two seasons, and you say he could mash if he stayed healthy? There are no indications of this at all. He’s two months younger than Jose Mesa, for redacted’s sake.
by odradek on Feb 5, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, he is the only member of the 97 Marlins that does not bring tears to my eyes and steam out of my ears.
I don’t know … those 3-run bombs off of Hershiser were absolute killers. That remains the only thing I think of when Alou is mentioned.
by macasson on Feb 6, 2009 3:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d barf if we signed Schilling.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 3, 2009 9:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t. I’d love to have Schilling, despite his loudly obvious faults.
by Jay on Feb 3, 2009 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s over. Can’t throw fastballs anymore.
by odradek on Feb 3, 2009 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But he’s awesome at Everquest
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 4, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We’ve already reached our Gritty White Blogger quota.
Actually, we could fill our Douchey White Blogger quota.
Signature to be named later.
by emd2k3 on Feb 4, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As it stands right now, with Francisco/Dellucci in left field and a bunch of question marks in the rotation…do you guys think we take the Central?
by Belle4Hall19960 on Feb 4, 2009 11:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
couple of words.
kerry wood. fausto carmona. grady sizemore. jhonny peralta.
yeah man. yeah.
Anti-Ben Fran before it was cool.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 5, 2009 1:53 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Twins’ offseason isn’t done.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 5, 2009 7:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So is Manny.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 5, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Manny would look awesome batting between Mauer and Morneau.
by odradek on Feb 5, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
flag
I refuse to ever root for a team that routinely does the MVP chant for opposing players.
by TheVanillaGorilla on Feb 5, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This.
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 5, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When Pohlad was alive there was no way they’d pay, but now…
by odradek on Feb 5, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now? You think his estate executor will approve deficit spending?
by Jay on Feb 5, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whew! Yeah, you’re right. Things will be even tighter than usual.
by odradek on Feb 5, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Manny would also look awesome batting between Victor and Jhonny.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 5, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
THISSSSSS!
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
by westbrook on Feb 5, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When it comes to Manny, I’m actually content with memories of him batting between Alomar and Thome.
Pujols is publicly agitating for the Cardinals to sign Manny (including passing Manny’s phone number to LaRussa), which would be a fairly formidable lineup, right?
by FredOx on Feb 5, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, right up until the moment Manny quits on the team.
LaRussa is a guy who couldn’t get along with Anthony Reyes and Scott Rolen. I don’t know what that says or means, but I somehow don’t think it leads to the Cardinals — who are also pretty broke — signing Manny.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Posnanski had a amusing post on Manny this week: http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/02/03/baseballs-greatest-winner/.
But in the comments section, I found this interesting, disputing the “he quit” crap:
From July 1st to July 30th, Manny Ramirez played in 22 of his team’s 24 games. During that stretch of time, ManRam put up this line:
.347/.473/.587/1.060
Supposedly he refused to board a plane and forgot what knee to hobble on. And yet, the guy dragged his dread-head out onto the field in 22 of 24 games and hit about as well as one can hit. I personally don’t care if he was pouting or whatever. He was doing what he’s been doing for years…being weird and hitting the crap out of the ball. I’m not condoning what he did, but you can’t quit on your team and hit that well. It’s not possible.
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 5, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s exactly like when Shoeless Joe threw the World Series but managed to bat something absurd like .600
by Roger Dorn on Feb 5, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I read quite a few articles about that. I think he played in more games than any Red Sock that month and was the best hitter on the team. If that’s quitting on your team then I wish every player did that.
Sure, he wanted his contract redone and whined about it, but he continued to play and hit like he always has. The whole “quitting on the team” thing was played up by the Boston media because that’s what the team wanted them to say. I don’t see any evidence of quitting on the team. You can say a lot of bad things about Manny but that’s not one of them.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 5, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, simmons wrote a credible defense of manny’s time in boston aproaching his trade to the dodgers … i think that’s where the comment in posnanski’s comments section originated.
by macasson on Feb 6, 2009 3:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve thought about it recently, and the more I think about it, a low-ball offer to Manny (say $19m for 4 years), and even if the Tribe could afford it, I wouldn’t want them to do it. Look at how bad he was at the end of his time in Boston. If he wasn’t gonna play hard for what he considered a low-priced contract, why would he play hard for us on a long-term low-priced contract? You’d have to pay him $27M to be happy. Why bother?
Make Adam Dunn a one-year, $1m offer. Even though he can’t bunt, let’s get him in here!
by lenred on Feb 6, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Look how bad he was at the end of his time in Boston? How bad??? Did you see those stats shown above of Manny’s last month in Boston? If that’s “bad”, I want every Indians hitter to be bad in 2009.
What makes you think he wasn’t playing hard? The reports from the Boston media that were probably fed to them from the Red Sox to turn the fans against Manny?
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 6, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve thought about it recently, and the more I think about it
Just stop thinking.
by supermarioelia on Feb 6, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
manny is one of the three best hitters of our generation.
i’m not redacted kidding.
So 2009.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 7, 2009 3:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
READ THIS SAPHRIO!!
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 5, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
WE’RE LGT, AND WE LOVE GLBC!!
READ THIS SAPPHO!!
by Logodaedalus on Feb 5, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
There is no way that the Indians sign Manny. You are talking about adding at least $25mil to the payroll, its not going to happen.
I’d rather have Bobby than Manny anyway.
by craig19 on Feb 6, 2009 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree that we’re not signing either of them; however:
Taking Abreu over Manny is… well, I mean… just completely incorrect. Incorrect to the point of being indefensible. The only way that this makes sense is if your primary goal is not to win baseball games.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 6, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Royals should pursue Abreu. They’ve made it clear that their primary goal is to not win baseball games.
by elsandito on Feb 6, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think he necessarily meant for the same money.
by Jay on Feb 6, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I’ll go with that. I was a little harsh, sorry Craig.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Feb 9, 2009 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you’re talking about for the price.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Feb 6, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Orlando?
Anyone think it would be possible to sign Orlando Hudson for a low price and give druby a year to hone his offensive skills? Orlando has great power for a middle infielder and might be able to be gotten for cheap as time goes on.
by tribetime276 on Feb 12, 2009 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I never want to hear the name “druby” again. Barf.
by supermarioelia on Feb 12, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha, I meant like puke, the middle infield connection was totally inadvertent.
by supermarioelia on Feb 12, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very low-leverage move. At his age, Asdrubal is as likely to have a huge breakout as he is to stagnate. Orlando is likely to be an improvement, but also likely to spend four months on the DL.
Where you want to put your money is into positions where the upgrade from the old guy to the new guy will be the largest. Second base is not really a problem area for us.
by Jay on Feb 12, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And besides what Jay said, I still don’t think even the “low” price that Hudson will likely sign for is affordable for the Indians. Remember, Hudson reportedly wanted a $5/$50 million contract. Even if that price has come down by half, it’s still $5 million the Indians don’t have, according to Shapiro.
by woodsmeister on Feb 16, 2009 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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