PECOTA: Indians atop tight division
The new PECOTA projections are starting to be released in various forms. Today, Clay Davenport posted the Depth Charts for all 30 teams along with projected standings based on them. The Depth Charts combine the individual player projections for 2009 with estimated playing time allotments.
This first draft (it will be revised over the course of spring training) shows the Indians leading the AL Central with 84 wins, while the other four clubs all winning between 74 and 79. The Indians and Twins in the 1-2 spots conform to my expectations. I am surprised that PECOTA sees the Tigers as a close third with the Royals only a few games behind.
Good projection systems are inherently conservative, in that every player and every team represents a wide range of possible results in 2009, and the projection attempts to show the median result for each player and, in the aggregate, for each team. Based on injuries, breakouts, slumps and the way the ball bounces, all five teams have the potential to finish with 70 wins or 90 wins, but as spring training starts, PECOTA sees the Indians as five to ten wins stronger than their rivals.
The system sees Victor, Garko, Peralta and Francisco as 750 OPS guys in 2009. Grady leads with an 860 projection, followed by 790 for both Choo and Shoppach. Among pitchers, the projected VORP leader (based on both production and innings pitched) is Cliff Lee by a wide margin, followed by Perez, Joe Smith (!), Wood, Carmona, Betancourt, Jensen Lewis and Scott Lewis, in that order.
about 3 years ago
Jay
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I would be kind of disappointed by an .860 OPS from Grady.
Heh, remember how up in arms some of us were last year at PECOTA’s projection that we’d only win 89 games?
Burn on, big river, burn on...
It’s pretty consistent with his career numbers, other than 2006, and he has a career .861 OPS. Of course, he does turn 27 this year, so I am hoping for some monster numbers.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Feb 9, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, that’s what I mean. I feel like I’m still waiting for him to “break out.”
Burn on, big river, burn on...
by Turkmenbashi on Feb 10, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
I’m glad that they like Joe Smith as I was unsure why some people (Law especially) were so quick to peg Smith merely as a ROOGY. His 2008 splits were dramatic, sure, but his 2007 splits were completely acceptable. Couple that with his good groundball rates and I think the Tribe has themselves a very nice bullpen arm.
Yea, but as Jay mentioned, Pecota is using median results to become the best predictor of the aggregate team.
Yes. There are a lot of factors that can undercut performance, most notably injuries, which often affect production in addition to playing time.
by Jay on Feb 9, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
This might put it in better perspective.
900. FatCab
890.
880.
870.
860. Grady
850. Quentin
840. Thome
830. Ordonez – Mauer – Dye
820. Morneau
810. Granderson – Butler
800. Gordon
790. Konerko – Jacobs – Shoppach – Choo
780. A.Ramirez – Guillen
770. Kubel – Hafner
760. Cuddyer – Fields – DeRosa – LaPorta
750. Young – Sheffield – Martinez – Garko – Peralta – Francisco
… or …
900. DET
890.
880.
870.
860. CLE
850. CHI
840. CHI
830. DET – MIN – CHI
820. MIN
810. DET – KC
800. KC
790. CHI – KC – CLE – CLE
780. CHI – DET
770. MIN – CLE
760. MIN – CHI – CLE – CLE
750. MIN – DET – CLE – CLE – CLE – CLE
The reason Cleveland is projected to score the most runs is because all but one spot in their lineup (Asdrubal, 710) has a median expectation of 750 OPS or better.
by Jay on Feb 9, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The White Sox are going to love this
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 9, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions
I think we’ve established that Hoynes’ predictive power is entirely dependent on the last sample size he saw.
Steel Nick
Hoynes usually doesn’t pick the Indians to win the AL Central unless they won the Central the previous year. I’m pretty sure he did not pick them to win in 2007, but did in 2008 (and possibly in 2006 as well), so hopefully, that precedent continues, as you mentioned (Hoynes doesn’t pick them, they win!)
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Whoops – I somehow forgot the Indians didn’t win the AL Central in 2005, but Hoynes might have picked them anyway, being impressed by their 2005 season (can’t recall – it’s been a while, but Hoynes seems to have a track record of only picking the Indians after they win the Central the previous season).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I don’t understand the obsession with Hoynes. The dude stinks and I’m not going to read his stuff just because he’s the beat reporter for the main paper in town.
The obsession is that a man with his access and position should take the initiative to enlighten the fan base of the team he covers. Instead, he’s shown no progress as a reporter despite freely available data. And it’s sad, because the Plain Dealer, whether in print or online, is still the conduit through which many Cleveland and Cleveland-area fans still receive their baseball information.
And I hold the PD to a higher standard. They had that very good series back in 2003? that I still have bookmarked about the rebuild and diamond view and not signing Thome. They have hired Pluto. They do a decent job with their non-sports reporting. Their OSU beat writer is one of the best covering that team. I don’t mind their Cavs coverage. And, well, I pity anyone that has to cover the circus that is the Cleveland Browns, but I don’t think Cabot or Grossi are terrible. But Shaw, Livingston, and Hoynes just flat out stink at their job.
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 10, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Brian Windhorst is absolutley fantastic. He’s one of the best beat writers in the NBA (and I’ve heard that from non-Cleveland people). Him and Pluto are the only reason I even look at cleveland.com (and they both came from the ABJ). Hoynes could learn a few lessons from him.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 10, 2009 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
True, I don’t really read other basketball newspapers writers, but like I said I’ve heard that from people that follow basketball.
The best thing probably is to hit [Grady] 2nd -- Jay
by Buckeye Brad on Feb 11, 2009 7:05 AM EST up reply actions
I’ve heard a lot of knocks on other teams’ beat reporters that usually end with something like, “But as long as he sticks to his job of reporting, he’s fine. It’s when he dabbles in analysis that he looks stupid.” If only that were the case for Hoynes. When the Sabathia deal went down the Milwaukee beat writer’s page on his newspaper’s website was seemingly being updated every ten minutes. Paul Hoynes added a blurb hours after we already knew everything. I think we waited just as long for confirmation of the Blake trade.
Steel Nick
Yeah, this is the real problem for me.
Castro is the best Indians beat reporter. And I’ll be happy as long as we have him.
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 10, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1 on Castro being the Indians’ best beat reporter – he updated constantly to where we knew exactly what was going on as it happened, as we expect in the days of the Internet.
Conversely, Hoynes takes hours to report on stuff that is several hours old; in the days of the Internet, that is no longer acceptable. Pre-Internet days, that would have been acceptable, but not now. Hoynes needs to catch up to 21st-century technology and the “information superhighway.”
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I agree, but it’s odd if you think about it. Castrovince is a paid employee of MLB, the organization he covers. So it’s almost like saying the best White House reporter is the press secretary.
Essentially, a sad commentary on the quality of the sports journalism.
I sorta agree. I think the MLB has done a pretty good job making their network and website relatively independent from the baseball operations. Look at the A-Rod coverage: it was all over the network and it was like the top 4 stories on MLB.com, but they sure weren’t the official position of the MLB. For good reason, they are staying quiet on that story.
It’s not like Castro has some unique access to the team unavailable to Hoynes. He may have a better working relationship with Shapiro and Co., but I think that says more about Castro’s capability as a journalist compared to Hoynes than it does about their respective employers. Castro is sitting next to Hoynes during press conferences- not on the other side of the table.
Plus, when you compare Castro to other teams’ official website writers, Castro looks even better. (e.g., the story linked about the Angels signing Abreu called Garret Anderson the most productive hitter on the Angels).
by Ryan Kelsey on Feb 11, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed. For now, at least.
In the long run, the prominence of these official media sites illustrates the importance of LGT and the like. As the traditional media sink into irrelevance and bankruptcy, some kind of strong independent media needs to thrive in order to keep a check on the official line.
MLB has done an admirable job, so far, in allowing its media sites to cover controversy and, presumably, operate in a relatively censorship-free environment (though we don’t know the restraints). But it won’t necessarily be that way always. All organizations seek to control their public images and the temptation to put these tools to use for that purpose will always be there.
How much you buy into it is up to you, but the disclaimer at the bottom of every Castro piece does say
Anthony Castrovince is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
The MLB.com guys have fairly free rein to say what they will. I suspect he’d only be fired if he sucked, not if he said the wrong thing.
Not necessarily. He could be fired because the league or team doesn’t like his work – whether an individual piece or as a whole. This could happen because he is judged to be too critical or not doing enough to promote the club. I’m not saying this is the case at this time, but it could happen without violating this disclaimer.
I hate to use a legal term around this crowd, but all MLB is promising us here is that there are no prior restraints. That doesn’t exclude the possibility that the evaluation of a staffer’s contract might include matters related to content.
I want you guys to save this link, and then re-read it after you’ve read Jacob’s piece on the AL Central in the Annual. Just no comparison.
it’s the off-season…I suspect when we are sitting in 1st play come July 1 you’ll be back more regularly
Nice burn Jay. I will have to return serve when the opportunity presents itself.
-Erik
by drerikbrady on Feb 11, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone have a link to the accuracy of the Indian’s record based on past PECOTA projections (i.e. preseaon PECOTA projected wins vs. end of season record)?
Vegas Watch had an analysis of the PECOTA standing from last year along other projections.
by rockemsockem on Feb 10, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
I just noticed the playoffs would shape up like this:
OAK @ BOS
NYY @ CLE
Welcome back, CC.
Steel Nick
OAK
Wait, WHAT?
Travis Hafner is overrated. Clarity is underrated. David Dellucci is David Dellucci.
It’s got LAA as one of the worst offenses in the AL and TEX giving up more runs then anyone.
by rockemsockem on Feb 10, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
Just imagine how good they’d be if we hadn’t single-handedly torpedoed the Grady trade talks.
by FredOx on Feb 11, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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