Chicago White Sox Preview

EDITOR'S NOTE:  ClarkM has done a bang-up job on these run-downs, which I imagine we'll all be referencing in early-season series against the Indians' divisional rivals.  By adding in the navigation above, I wanted to feature not just this final installment but the whole series of team breakdowns. Note that in some browser displays, you may not be able to see the whole width of the tables until you follow the jump. [Jay]

The White Sox won the Central Division last year by beating the Twins in a one game playoff. They finished the season with a record of 89-74, which was also their pythag record. However, the Sox, moreso than any other team in the division, lost some talent in the offseason. Not returning from last season: Javier Vazquez, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, and Nick Swisher.

Let’s start out by looking at their positional players:

There is so much that can go wrong with this offense due to the potential declines of Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Pierzynski and the uncertainty at third, second, and center. The other two players, Ramirez and Quentin, had seasons last year that kind of came out of nowhere, so regression could be expected there as well. Another concern here is depth as they do not have adequate replacements at C, 1B, DH, LF, and RF.  According to BPro’s two team metrics, the White Sox were a little better than average on the basepaths and a little below average in the field last year. The farm system isn’t likely to help the offense this year as most of their position player prospects probably won’t be ready till next season.

The starters: GB+ = 100 * GB% (player) / GB% (average). K+ = 100 * K% (player) / K% (average). BB+ = 100 * BB% (average) / BB% (player). Jay gets the credit for this idea. The average I am using was computed by Rich Lederer and it only includes pitchers that threw at least 100 innings and started in at least 33% of their appearances. Rich has done a series of excellent articles on pitchers over at BaseballAnalysts.com. One thing to keep in mind is that these categories aren’t created equally. It is better to be above average in K+ than to be above average in BB+, and better to be above average in BB+ than to be above average in GB+.

The success of the Sox rotation depends on health of the first four. There is no margin for error as they really only have four acceptable starters. I don’t believe in Richard at all, I don’t think they can get many innings out of Colon, and Poreda is a nice pitching prospect, but he has only spent a half season at AA and he’s hardly an elite prospect. The other options, Jack Egbert and Lance Broadway, are not attractive.

The Sox have a decent pen, though it is probably not as good as they are paying. I’m not sure how much depth they have past Jenks, Thornton, Dotel, and Linebrink. Also of note, Jenks’ K% has gone down in four straight seasons, which should be of some concern.