Mariners chose Gutz over BFran
Pluto seems to imply that the Indians offered Francisco and Seattle turned him down. I guess that's no huge surprise.
Pluto also spouts some absolute nonsense about Francisco "wearing down" last season.
almost 3 years ago
afh4
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This is the craziest comment:
The Indians believe Francisco is athletic enough to be a better outfielder and base stealer [than Guiterrez], two areas in which they are pushing him to improve this spring.
I don’t read it that way at all. I think Pluto’s saying that the Indians believe Francisco is athletic enough to be a better outfielder and base stealer than he has shown so far, not that he will ever be better in either area than Gutz.
Oh.ok. It threw me off because it immediately followed this sentence:
but Seattle preferred Franklin Gutierrez because of his defense.
If Gutz can get his bat going, this trade made signal the end of the Indians fleecing the Mariners.
I hope not to miss his glove too much this season. Anyone remember Gutz’s sweet catch in the second game of the May 12th double header against the Blue Jays in the top of the ninth to preserve Cliff’s shutout? That was just one of many gems he pulled off in the field last year.
by PatBordersHelmet on Mar 9, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
“If Gutz can get his bat going” seems like the refrain of the last couple of years, though. I was totally convinced he was going to break out last year, but 399 AB at an 80 OPS+ is.. well, it’s something. He’s 26 this year, so maybe this is the year for him, but the career .308 OBP doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence.
DISCLAIMER: I may be bitter.
I don’t know any reason it wouldn’t be the phonetic Spanish pronunciation, with the long-O in both syllables. There is no other pronunciation of the letter “O” in Spanish.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Mar 9, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve heard it pronounced as either “Roan Doan” or “Ron Doan.” I’m not sure which it is; at first glance, it looks like “Ron Don,” but I figured at least the last syllable had the long “O” – I don’t know if the first syllable is supposed to have the long "O’ or not. According to Jay, it sounds like it would, based on Spanish pronunciation.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Right. And why would it be anything but Spanish pronunciation?
While we’re at it, start rolling that “R” just a little bit. Rondon.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
For the record I prefer Gutz as well. Adjusting for defense he was already more valuable than Francisco in 2008 according to Fangraphs.
Steel Nick
The day LaPorta/Brantley are in the same slash category as Crowe is a sad day for the Indians organization.
Steel Nick
i’m speaking more to the category of oufield depth. brantley/choo/laporta might project to be starters and francisco/crowe 4th outfielders. gutz is one or the other. as a result he’s covered in some respect by one group or the other – putting them into the same ‘category’ that causes me to rather have valbuena.
Also! negative cleveland fan cliche alert!
you seeem to imply that means brantley and laporta have fallen back to crowe. why not have it be a great day for the organization – where crowe finally breaks through putting himself in that category?
+1 – if Crowe “rises up” (famous Cleveland slogan these days), why wouldn’t that be a great day for the Indians’ organization? Do I expect him to be at the level of LaPorta or Brantley? No, but do I think he could become more than “just a name” – I think it’s a reasonable possibility.
Heck, it’s not out of the realm of realistic possibility that Francisco does improve on his numbers from last season – two reasons I’ve mentioned over the offseason that Pluto mentioned in that article:
1. He is just entering his prime (27-YO)
2. He will be hitting in the bottom-part of the order, not as the #3 hitter, where I don’t think anyone expects Francisco to hit in any lineup (outside of maybe a very weak lineup).
Another point Pluto mentioned that I didn’t think about was the fact that Francisco does seem to adapt well to the same level in his second year at that level, based on his track record at AA and AAA, so his improving this year is not out of the question by any means.
And as for the Mariners wanting Gutierrez instead of Francisco, Gutierrez was and always has been the better defensive CFer, an area Seattle was looking to address, since Jeremy Reed is very likely not the answer (and hasn’t been for a few years now). Plus, I think they prefer Ichiro in RF, and perhaps, Ichiro himself prefers to be in RF. Therefore, I don’t find the Mariners wanting Gutierrez more than Francisco to be surprising – Francisco can play a passable CF, especially for short periods, but they wanted a long-term CFer – that’s Gutierrez, not Francisco.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I mean, in terms of the fleecing, it’s well within the realm of possibility that Valbuena outhits Gutz from the 2B position in the not-too-distant future, unless Gutz just goes bananas.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
Depends on whether 2008 was a mirage for Valbuena. He showed a pretty substantial improvement in his age 22 season. Up to that point, Gutierrez had better stats at each age and level.
AB BA OBP SLG OPS Gutierrez AA AAA Valbuena AA AAA
Good point by both you and Nick. I still think that Gutz can b a big name and does have the potential to develop his bat—not saying that it will happen, just that it isn’t impossible.
Even without a great bat, I think he was a good fit on the Indians provided that the rest of the line-up hits. With a lead late in the game, you want a guy like Gutz out there. That’s where I’ll miss him most.
by PatBordersHelmet on Mar 9, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Gootz may be a guy who breaks out in his 30’s. He’s a great all-around athlete, and his defensive skills and minimal hitting skills can keep him around long enough for his swing to refine over time while his batting eye improves. Unlike every other skill, selectivity tends to peak for the typical player after age 30, but it’s fairly rare for a player who doesn’t have it to stick around in the majors long enough to get it.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Mar 9, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I was checking out PECOTA’s projection for Gutz this year, and I noticed Ichiro’s projection. Wow. A sub-.700 OPS.
I am very skeptical of Gutz’s ability to ever become a quality major league hitter. The approach is just too bad. Its probably an overused cliche, but I can’t help think that the league adjusted to him after that nice second half in ’07. More likely though, he probably just had a hot few months, and that represented his high end level of production. With that said, there is a reason Shapiro offered Ben first and there is a reason Jack Z. turned him down, Gutz is pretty clearly more valuable.
Yeah, and I’m guessing BFran is not going to be the starting come fall unless Choo goes down hard with injury.
[laughs as FredOx ironically rolls ankle]
As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.
by bigbrabbs on Mar 9, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
You guys have caused me to change my sig. All of this hate has me rooting for the guy now.
Ben Francisco's only fan on LGT
I’m a BenFran fan too, but my expectations for him aren’t high. I think he can be a league-average or slightly better LF.
I'm *always* in the driver's seat, cugino -- Chuck
Hello Nick,
I think it’s all the “hate” over the past season, especially in regards to some people’s posts and sig. files that Toxicadam is referring to.
Additionally, I think you can certainly say that Gutierrez is a better defender than Francisco; however, I don’t think you can say that about Gutz’s offense; in fact, as of right now, I’d give Ben the slight to moderate edge over Gutz offensively. Yes, Gutz is two years younger, but as zempf mentioned above, we keep repeating “If Gutz can get his bat going” for the past few seasons, with little to show beyond 2007. Arguably, Ben has shown virtually as much with the bat (yes, Gutz had a greater HR/AB ratio in 2007 than Ben did in 2008, but notice the better BB/K ratio Ben had as compared to Gutz in either 2007 or 2008), and mind you, Gutz wasn’t batting in the #3 spot for a good chunk of the season (Gutz did have a few ABs in the #2 hole, I believe, but outside of maybe the #6 hole, didn’t sniff the middle-of-the-order like Ben did).
Therefore, your comment certainly applies to Gutz’s defense, but not to his offense in my opinion. I think Ben’s bat shows more promise than Gutz’s, as Gutz has a longer, loopier swing (reminds me a little bit of Marte’s, but not quite as extreme) than Ben, who has a shorter, more compact stroke.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I’m with this. Bfran seems like a guy who has actually met or exceeded expectations, and he deserves a lot of credit for OPS+’ing 100 last season (given our offensive suckitude). Gutz has old-school tools, and is, as has been pointed out here before, one of the best outfielders in the universe right now. That is pretty cool.
I am most certainly not a Ben Francisco hater. I have defended Francisco a handful of times on this site as I think there is a lot to like about him. The Indians do not have a ton invested in him yet he has contributed to the big league club in a meaningful way. I like that, and I will be rooting for him to succeed this year.
I appreciate Francisco for what he is and I don’t think that should be taken for granted, but what do you want us to do, pretend that he is better than he really is?
Yeah, they’ve been dancing this “try to sell the other team on BenFran over Gootz” jig for almost two years. The Mariners, as I understand it, specifically were targeting Gutierrez — not just among Indians players, but among all players. Just as we look for undervalued players who are unneeded depth in other organizations, Jack Z was saying, I need a super-rangey CF for my ridiculously spacious outfield, and he needs to hit well enough not to be a total black hole but poorly enough that another team is willing to give him up at a reasonable price.
This does raise the question: wouldn’t it be cheaper for us just to hire away the scout who signs all these great middle infielders for the Mariners, rather than always having to trade for them?
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Mar 9, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds right.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Mar 9, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha. Suck it, Minaya.
I'm *always* in the driver's seat, cugino -- Chuck
by Turkmenbashi on Mar 10, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s funny.
Jack Z.: the centerfielder i want is in cleveland
Minaya: Too soon! TOO SOON!!!!!!!
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Yep
I'm *always* in the driver's seat, cugino -- Chuck
by Turkmenbashi on Mar 10, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Jack Z. gets a late-night phone call from Ichiro, who tells him he is tired of covering all that ground in Safeco. “Those days are over, Z-man,” says Suzuki. “Get me a guy who can get on his horse, and someone who keeps a low profile. You know what happens if you don’t.”
ninjas.
Don't be stupid. PUT IN MELOAN.
by gte619n on Mar 10, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pokemon.
No, not you. Your helmet!
by PatBordersHelmet on Mar 10, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Gotta love the all-batting-average “analysis.” Pluto seems genuinely unaware that:
- Ben is just following the typical age curve.
- The progression shows that he is a major leaguer as opposed to a career minor leaguer, but
- It does not show that he’s a good major leaguer or that he’ll continue to progress.
- Age 27 is a typical peak year, but
- Progression in performance typically is already tapering off by age 25, though it doesn’t plateau until 28.
Ben’s MLE in 2007 was a 734 OPS. That was at age 25, and while he may be better than that at 27 or 29, I don’t think he’ll be miles and miles better than that.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
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