Yes, it's time for the Indians to panic
The author's headline, not mine.
"So before burying the Indians with more than 95 percent of their season to play, allow us to present a few facts: Over the past 25 full seasons, 45 teams in Major League Baseball have begun their seasons 1-6 or worse. Of those 45, eight have finished the year with a better-than-average record. And of those eight, only one – the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies – made the postseason. In which they were promptly swept."
11 months ago
millionairesrow
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Which would you rather be:
- 1-6, 3 games out of first in your division, with the White Sox, Twins, Tigers and Royals ahead of you. Or,
- 2-5, 3.5 games out of first in your division, with the Orioles, Bluejays, Rays and Yankees ahead of you.
by APV on Apr 14, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The one without Carl Pavano.
I refuse to ever root for a team that routinely does the MVP chant for opposing players.
by TheVanillaGorilla on Apr 14, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Really? Wouldn’t it be better to have Carl Pavano really stink for a few starts and get the boot than have someone like Jon Lester stink marginally less but keep taking the mound every fifth day (11 IP, 11 ER so far). If you’re going to suck, do so magnificently.
by FredOx on Apr 14, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The one with the 2007 ERA+ of 144 over 200 innings.
Carmona for Cy Young 2009
by danvail on Apr 14, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hello, rec, nice to see you.
Eric Wedge. The Adam LaRoche of managers.
by emd2k3 on Apr 14, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah here’s the thing. These things hardly ever seem relevant. Especially this part:
And of those eight, only one – the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies – made the postseason. In which they were promptly swept
Let’s say the Indians were to make the playoffs. Odds of us getting swept in the first round? Odds of anyone even mentioning, “You know, remember when we started 1-6? Well the last team…”? Odds of us getting swept actually having anything to do whatsoever with the Phillies getting swept?
And odds that this same author, were we to get swept in the first round of the playoffs, proclaiming us World Series favorites for 2010? Because you know only one other team in history went 1-6, made the playoffs, and got swept in the first round, and you know what happened to them?
SCIENCE.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Apr 14, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
These things are all dumb anyways. The Indians will right the ship and then win it too.
by mjschaefer on Apr 14, 2009 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s not completely dumb. There is some merit behind an article that cites actual statistics. We aren’t very good right now, why should we suddenly become world-beatingly better?
I never learned to read.
by fwembt on Apr 14, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the question isn’t whether the article cites statistics, it’s whether those statistics have any predictive value (as opposed to being correlations). I don’t know, it hardly reads like something you’d read in a SABR journal.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Apr 14, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
For sure. Even if they are just correlations, they don’t bode well.
I never learned to read.
by fwembt on Apr 14, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If anything the Indians’ 1-6 record looks worse in context, considering who they’ve played. If they played, for instance, the Red Sox and Rays over their first seven games, you might chalk it up to a tough schedule.
But I’m not going to start drawing conclusions until at least the end of April.
by Ryan on Apr 14, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am curious if the rest of those 45 teams made it much past .500 or if they remained crappy. I don’t think you cam point the finger at this one stat.
LGT's resident Beer Advocate.
by LGT Patrick on Apr 14, 2009 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It is disheartening when Nick Swisher seems to pitch better than our starters!
I think we have a team that wasn’t prepared to play this season. I’m honestly putting the blame on our coaching staff. We HAVE good players!
To keep my reply on topic, I think Indians stand a good chance of “finishing above average” like the other forty five teams that started 1-6.
Lazy Lightning Media
www.lazylightningmedia.zenfolio.com
by Lazy Lightning Media on Apr 14, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we have a team that wasn’t prepared to play this season.
… and yet this was the longest Spring Training evar. I don’t get it, either.
I’m honestly putting the blame on our coaching staff.
I’m starting to come around to this.
--
Force quit and move to trash.
by vbc3 on Apr 14, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Tribe has started slow like nine seasons in a row now.
by NickFantana on Apr 15, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it’s either coaching or the FO has a proclivity for bringing in players who are slow starters.
I’m a little confused about how to assign blame here (when is too soon, what blame belongs where) but a lot of what has happened early this season has been pretty straightforward mistakes. I’ve seen several players take bad routes on balls in the outfield, most pitchers are leaving their fastball up and few if any of the hitters look to have a good approach at the plate (strikeouts, runners on 3rd with less than two outs resulting in no runs.)
It certainly doesn’t feel to me like they’re overmatched, like they’re giving 100% effort and being beaten (the feeling I had during the end of 2007 ALCS, for example.) This feels more like they aren’t where they need to be mentally. Who should we blame for that?
by NickFantana on Apr 15, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i blame the advanced scouting department.
by Brick. on Apr 15, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This feels more like they aren’t where they need to be mentally.
Ignoring the feel part, assuming this is the case, the answer is: The grown-ass men who shouldn’t need someone to tell them to be prepared mentally.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Apr 15, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So we have the only 25 guys who can’t prepare themselves in ST? How is this more logical than blaming the coaching staff?
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 15, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus the two or three actual major league players on the Nationals.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 15, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I believed that all 25 were somehow zoned out, yes. But I don’t think that’s the case. Personal accountability, that’s all. Do we think Peralta struck out to end the game the other night because Wedge said the wrong thing somewhere between his torrid spring and that at bat? Or did Peralta just not hit the ball?
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Apr 15, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn’t come down to individual circumstances though. It’s the urgency that the team should be playing with every single play
by Roger Dorn on Apr 15, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not convinced that the team is not playing with urgency. A team that sucks more or less always looks lethargic.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Apr 16, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s always going to be the player’s fault for not executing in a specific at-bat. That’s what they do. But I’m trying to look at the larger picture. It’s not just one Peralta AB, it’s the way the team as a whole has started the season. This is what MTF is pointing towards. What is the common thread that links all of these players together?
by NickFantana on Apr 15, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe there’s too much coaching. Too much messing with the players’ heads. Too much thinking and also too much platitudinizing, which is a surefire way to make a player tune out.
by odradek on Apr 15, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I’m not buying it.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Apr 15, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And let me expand on that a little: I respect your opinions and I see where some of you are coming from. But at this point I’m just not comfortable blaming this on Wedge or the coaching staff a) because we don’t know what they are or aren’t doing/saying behind closed doors, and b) It never sits right with me to blame a manager for bad results on the field unless it’s a tactical decision by the manager. There’s a part of me that feels no blame should be assigned to another party if a player can’t take a play/at-bat seriously and devote all of his focus to it, no matter what his coach is doing.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Apr 15, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think what you’re outlining is the other option. And I think the logical conclusion to that line of thinking is at least a partial indictment of the FO.
by NickFantana on Apr 15, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So our best players don’t wear suits anymore?
Meaning that our best players are no longer those that customarily wear suits, not that Shapiro and Antonetti are now naked.
by FredOx on Apr 15, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is that people want to blame someone, maybe rightfully so, maybe not.
This isn’t coming from people who were knee-jerk in 2006 or in 2008. This is people who think that at this point, it’s no longer knee jerk.
So, basically, people want to see a choice of who to blame, at the least. If you’re saying it’s just the player then what’s the solution? Fire the players? Fire the people who sign the players? Fire the people who coach the players? Fire the people who sing the people who the coach the players?
It’s just exhausting to hear about what great a process we have and then…this. Where’s the breakdown? How do we fix the process? Is it literally unfixable?
by afh4 on Apr 15, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hello Andrew,
I think people want to blame someone because, outside of 2007, we have seen this same pattern develop year after year since Wedge has been here (in 2003, I think) – we start off slowly (though this year might “take the cake” in terms of starting slowly, as I think this is the worst start in terms of record, and our rotation is also the shakiest since we have no legit, “knock-down” #1 starter to lead the rotation like we did in those other years, or in most of the other years, at least), dig ourselves a huge hole, then have to “fight like mad” to get ourselves back to respectability, but not enough to where we’re a serious playoff contender.
The one year we did start off well, 2007, we did make the postseason (and could have won the whole enchilada, but didn’t). In 2005, we nearly overcame the slow start (and by all accounts, should have if not for a horrible last week), but that’s the closest we came to digging ourselves out of our seemingly perennial hole.
I think people are starting to question whether it’s something with Wedge and his coaching staff in their teaching and preparation methods that are leading to our slow starts. I mean, does a team start off slowly in 6 out of 7 seasons – even the Pirates and Royals have likely gotten off to better starts more often in that time period than we have, yet we always seem to be digging a hole that is so hard to come out of.
This is why I think some people are panicking. Do I think the season is over? No. Do I think the Indians need to turn this around quickly (say, within a week) and not take 2-4 more weeks to get it going? Yes. While this division is not expected to boast a super-strong team (and personally, I think any of the 5, including KC, could legitimately win this division – after all, KC arguably has a better top-of-the-rotation than DET, has a better closer, and arguably, a better bullpen, and DET’s offense is mostly centered around Granderson, Cabrera, and Ordonez, while the rest of the offense is so-so, so how experts can include DET and not KC is beyond me when talking about winning the AL Central), it’s important for the Indians to right the ship as quickly as possible so that they don’t have to scramble to stay in this race or try to play catch-up in the event that one of the other 4 teams do catch fire and emerges from the pack in this race.
It would certainly be nice if our players would start excelling at or very near the beginning of the season and hit the ground running – outside of 1 season in the last 7, we have not done that, and we know we’ve missed the postseason every season outside of the one season we started off well. While there is certainly more that has gone into it than us starting poorly in those other 6 seasons that have led to us not reaching the postseason, it certainly did not help, and that is why I think some people are panicking, fearing we’re going to see “deja vu” all over again. The Indians need to right this ship quickly, including getting the pitching in order (Lee, Carmona, and Perez especially) and the hitting to be more timely and fundamental (Sizemore especially, along with Francisco or whoever is in LF, plus Shoppach).
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
by indiansfan on Apr 15, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you so much for contributing again to this discussion. I agree with literally everything you wrote.
by NickFantana on Apr 15, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand there’s nothing knee-jerk. And I think we’re on the same page here. In response to your rhetorical questions, we don’t know. While some choose (with sound reasoning behind it) “coaching,” I choose nothing. Perhaps this is flawed, I think it’s reasonably cautious.
All this being said, if our season follows along this path I’ll be the first one to say go ahead and Fire Wedge. After 9 games I don’t think the season will go down this path.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Apr 15, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of the people here shy away from the lynch-mode view of Wedge, sometimes overcompensating. There are so many variables involved, but there’s a seeming pattern, as Joe points out above, in six of the past seven seasons. Maybe it’s random, maybe it’s sunspots, maybe it’s the weather. Who knows. But possibly, just possibly, there is something inherent in the managerial process that messes with the players. The whole thing is a black box. We don’t know what is said.
The last few days I have been watching Wedge. He sure doesn’t look relaxed. Look at Leyland or Guillen in the dugout. Two intense guys, but they look a little looser than Wedge. Trey Hillman. Bobby Cox. When was the last time you saw Wedge pat a player on the back or smile in the dugout? Maybe this has nothing to do with anything, but in light of the mystery that is the Indians’ underperformance, in 2009 as in years past, isn’t contemplating the manager a worthy pursuit?
by odradek on Apr 16, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fire the players? Fire the people who sign the players? Fire the people who coach the players? Fire the people who sing the people who the coach the players?
Fire Joe Morgan
by APV on Apr 16, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FIRE! FIRE!
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Apr 16, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That article and headline are both pretty silly. I can’t really see a reason why the first 7 games are any more significant than any other 7 game stretch. (Some might say it’s less important because its early in the season, others seem to believe that wins in April count double.)
There are also a lot of factors not discussed, such as the advantages of divisional play and the wild card, that make the article less than enlightening, but oh well, they gotta sell papers get hits.
Obviously the team has started poorly and that’s not good, but I don’t even know what “panic” means – fire everybody? stop watching? stop caring? Whatever. Go Tribe.
Lead singer and driver of the Winnebago.
by Fredward on Apr 14, 2009 7:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think a lot of bad teams (e.g., the 2009 Nationals) start bad and remain bad. I don’t think the Indians are a bad team (though I’m not as certain of this as I was a week ago), which would suggest this seven-game mess is just conspicuously timed.
by odradek on Apr 15, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, and it probably isn’t going to end anytime soon. I don’t see them going to New York and winning two out of three. They’re going to look like the North Ridgeville JV team when they’re playing in NY.
by odradek on Apr 15, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you implying that the 4th game in NY will be postponed?
by palcal on Apr 15, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even worse! A dreaded fourth game. Tribe goes 1-3.
by odradek on Apr 15, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indians are only a game worse off than Boston and the Sox are in a tougher division.
by palcal on Apr 15, 2009 2:53 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Sox fans must be slitting their wrists.
Eric Wedge. The Adam LaRoche of managers.
by emd2k3 on Apr 15, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OMG THEY HAVE HAD IT SO HARD OVER THE YEARS BUCKYDENT BOONE BUCKNER NOW THIS AHHHAH
by Brick. on Apr 15, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
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