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Game 14: Indians 8, Royals 7

Everything set up through the first seven innings for an easy Cleveland victory, but the bullpen up to and including Kerry Wood made the game much closer than it ever deserved to be.

Aaron Laffey became the first Cleveland starter to finish seven innings, pitching a prototypical groundballer game. He induced a double play in five of his seven innings, which meant two things, one bad, and one good: he was allowing a lot of hitters to reach base (10), and he was getting lots of ground balls (only four outs occurred via a ball in the air). He had a decent strike/ball ratio (64/40), which combined with his ground outs, made for either quick innings or quick escapes from innings. Both of Laffey's starts have come against the Royals, who won't be mistaken for an offensive juggernaut, but he's given the Indians effectiveness and length in his outings, two qualities not common in starts this year. He's certainly earned himself a spot in the rotation for now.

The offense, which exploded in the New York series, continued to hum along, dispatching Sir Sidney by the fourth inning. The top six hitters in the lineup are all going well, especially Victor Martinez, who has been hitting everything hard recently. He finished his 4-for-5 game with a home run in the eighth, opening up a little daylight after the bullpen had quickly given up four runs in the top of the inning. And the Indians would need every bit of that lead.

For the bullpen, even given less outs to get, almost blew a five-run lead in one inning. Joe Smith started out the inning, having been brought out to face Mike Aviles but instead getting a left-handed pinch hitter (Brayan Peña), couldn't retire either Peña or David DeJesus, so Eric Wedge went to the best reliever in the 'pen thus far, Masa Kobayashi. He was worse, giving up a single to Mark Teahen and coming a couple feet from giving up a tying three-run home run to Mike Jacobs. After that Jacobs shot, Wedge took another spin on the Wheel of Fail, bringing out Jensen Lewis to try to stem the tide. He gave up another run on a sacrifice fly, but induced the sixth double play of the night from Miguel Olivo to end the threat. Victor Martinez homered in the bottom of the inning to push the lead to three, and with Kerry Wood coming in, everything seemed in order.

With one out, Wood gave up a swinging bunt single to Coco Crisp, struck out Mitch Maier, but then gave up a two-run shot to Tribe killer David DeJesus. He shrugged the homer off, striking out Billy Butler to end the game.

Even with an offense hitting on most of its cylinders and a rotation getting its legs under it, the bullpen has in the last five games blown two victories and tried its best to blow a third. Normally a weakness in one area of the club can be compensated for by strengths in a couple other areas, but the bullpen right now is a fatal flaw, eclipsing any good parts of the club by its ineffectiveness. Tonight's situation was about as easy an assignment as a bullpen can have: a 6-1 lead, and two innings to go. If they can't be counted on to protect a five-run lead, what's going to happen if the game's more seriously in doubt?

Next Up: Lee vs. Bannister. 7:05 PM

290421105_royals_indians_123998078_lbig_medium

via www.fangraphs.com


Highest WPA Lowest WPA
Jensen Lewis .219 Masa Kobayashi -.246
Victor Martinez .208 Shin-Soo Choo -.093
Grady Sizemore .191 Joe Smith -.090

 

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Right now we know what is going to happen if the game is in doubt. Unfortunately we saw it twice this weekend.

by oxforddave on Apr 21, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Darn you, trying to answer my rhetorical question!

Seriously, what’s a comfortable lead with the starter out of the game? 6 runs? More?

by Ryan on Apr 22, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

It sure isn’t 5, apparently.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Apr 22, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Going into the seventh inning? 10, by my math.

--
Force quit and move to trash.

by vbc3 on Apr 22, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

20-4 felt fairly good.

by JulioBernazard on Apr 22, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think we need about 4 runs per non-Wood inning.

Ben Francisco: An Outfielder only on baseball cards and roster sheets.

by westbrook on Apr 22, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Missed most of the game, not reading through the game threads because I’m afraid there’s a Cavs mention in there and I’m watching the game now on DVR. Bullpen is SCARY bad right now, reminescent of a few years ago when they were historically bad. A 5 run lead in the 7th doesn’t hold up? Yikes.

Also, I know there’s a Cavs game literally going on 500 feet away, I know it’s the Royals on a cold Tuesday night in April .. but I can’t remember ever seeing the Jake as empty as it looked on the highlight of Victor’s homerun. That’s like Joe Robbie Stadium a few years ago empty.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Apr 21, 2009 11:25 PM EDT reply actions  

During a commercial on Letterman, I heard Chuck Galleti say that it was the lowest attendance in the ballpark’s history. ESPN’s boxscore says 11,408. Hinted at it early in the game thread, but the tiered value pricing still won’t bring people down to the ballpark when they’re worried about job security and it’s cold and rainy. A Cavaliers playoff game is just icing on the empty seat cake.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Apr 22, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was one of the few at the game last night.

Now, given there was a Cavs playoff game going on next door- some people went to that, some stayed home to watch it. Also, given, it was 45 degrees outside with rain showers on and off. Still, it was a pretty pathetic showing. The tickets I had were behind home plate, the face value was $22, field level. I got them from someone with season tickets… even ate at the Terrace club before the game.

My biggest take away? The value ticket pricing is a bit silly. Those 11,000 tickets were going to be sold no matter what. All the reduced pricing did was hurt the team’s bottom line. I don’t think varying pricing is going to change attendance too much. Increases will keep fans away, but decreases in pricing won’t bring fans in to games that there will never be demand anyway (i.e. seeing a last place team on a cold rainy April day against Kansas City at the same time as the Cavs.)

by Ryan Kelsey on Apr 22, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those 11,000 tickets were going to be sold no matter what. All the reduced pricing did was hurt the team’s bottom line. I don’t think varying pricing is going to change attendance too much. Increases will keep fans away, but decreases in pricing won’t bring fans in to games that there will never be demand anyway (i.e. seeing a last place team on a cold rainy April day against Kansas City at the same time as the Cavs.)

I don’t agree. Airlines, for instance, price their flights based on the time of season, and lots of people plan their vacations around those price levels. If someone’s planning to go to an Indians game, but don’t really have a date in mind, price is going to play a part in the decision. I know from my standpoint, price is usually the determining factor, since I don’t really care who the opponent is, or whether there’s fireworks after the game.

by Ryan on Apr 22, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

have you seen the fireworks, though!!!!! they make loud noises and are all colory.

by Brick. on Apr 22, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I guess I think you (and me) are the exceptions. We are part of the 11,000 that will go whenever we have the chance, constricted only by our time and finances. The masses… the big populations that will change yearly attendance figures from 2.2 to 2.9 million… are largely unaffected by the new pricing structure. In other words, the airlines wouldn’t do that if a really significant number of people planned their vacations in the “off season”.

by Ryan Kelsey on Apr 22, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Increases will keep fans away, but decreases in pricing won’t bring fans in

This statement makes no sense.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 22, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure it does. April night game against royals: decrease the price, same attendance as higher price.
Yankees series: increase price, lower attendance as lower price.

By basic theory is that you could have given the tickets away for $5 last night and you wouldn’t get much of a bump in attendance. 11,000 were going to show up. Some die-hards, those with season tickets, those who got tickets from those with season tickets for free, family and friends. That’s about it.
Now, the second part of the half sentence you block-quoted from me, I’m a little less convinced of. But basically, raising the price is simply going to make going to a given game a non-possibility for some that would otherwise consider it.

by Ryan Kelsey on Apr 22, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

The fallacy here is that there is a baseline price which is universally understood and perceived. That is simply not true, or at least, it flies in the face of all economic theory and everything we know about consumer behavior.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 22, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

First, there was a baseline price, of some-sort, even if not exactly perfect- last year’s price.

Second, I’m not really relying on any baseline price. Just that cheap tickets on low demand days are not going to really help attendance or demand. Also, high prices, even for high demand games, can make tickets unaffordable for some and unpalatable for others.

by Ryan Kelsey on Apr 22, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, we can set an arbitrary baseline price, but it’s just that — arbitrary. Had the baseline price been higher, attendance would be lower, and vice versa. The effects are not really disputable, it’s only the shape of the demand curve that’s in question.

We don’t really know how bad the attendance would have been for these rainy, weekday games in April, in a deep recession, had the prices not been cut in half. It is naive to assume that it would have been exactly the same. No doubt the promotion will work better when the weather is more tolerable — when it’s raining, the lower pricing might triple walkup sales, but it still wouldn’t amount to much.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 23, 2009 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

We might find that people who spend less on the ticket spend more on food and drink, since they sense they’re ahead on value. Or they might grab better seats than they otherwise would have, once they’ve committed to going.

But we haven’t studied their system, so we can’t know for sure.

by jhon on Apr 23, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Indians feel that they’ll get better seats, which I might personally do. I think most folks have a threshold of what they think is reasonable for them personally to pay for their tickets. I pretty much always sit upper deck, lower row, behind home plate, for the best view of the whole field, but that’s just how I was raised.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 24, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

If Rondon is pitching well into this summer, and the team is satisfied with his workload, and we’re in contention, is there any chance he could be brought up as a reliever? Or did Carmona burn that path to the majors behind him, General Sherman style?

by fleerdon on Apr 21, 2009 11:27 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Rec for comparing Hector Rondon to General Sherman. Well, sort of.

I refuse to ever root for a team that routinely does the MVP chant for opposing players.

by TheVanillaGorilla on Apr 22, 2009 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Some chance.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 24, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wheel of Fail should replace Circle of Trust. How long does Shapiro stick with this bullpen? I hope that all of them are on notice, except for Wood of course. Even though he gave up that homer today, I trust him.

by Cols714 on Apr 21, 2009 11:32 PM EDT reply actions  

If he doesn’t stick with this bullpen, what would be his alternative? I’d be willing to bet a fair bit that Shapiro is looking everywhere for bullpen help, but it’s not as though there’s a lot out there. Ever.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Apr 21, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know the alternatives, except for what the Indians have down on the farm. But they can’t be any worse than what we’ve seen so far.

by Cols714 on Apr 21, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is exactly how it went, I think

by Roger Dorn on Apr 21, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

absolutely. Victor has mastered that line drive single swing, especially from the left side of the plate. I really think he could do that every time and hit .350-.400. But he also knows that he needs to hit for power, so he changes his approach to hit his homers and doubles. It was a beautiful display of hitting.

by Ryan Kelsey on Apr 22, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really enjoying these game recaps.

by ClarkM on Apr 21, 2009 11:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Ryan is a total professional

by Roger Dorn on Apr 21, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, I’m not a professional. Just a highly-obsessed amateur.

After doing these for a couple of years, I really appreciate what the beat writers do. I’m sitting at home typing a couple paragraphs for a blog, and they’re on the road, interviewing players, and having to meet hard deadlines every day for six months.

by Ryan on Apr 22, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds like a great life. If you’re covering the major league team.

I'm *always* in the driver's seat, cugino -- Chuck

by Turkmenbashi on Apr 22, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I meant quality-wise, it feels professional

by Roger Dorn on Apr 22, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

At least you don’t have to call on your bullpen to finish the recaps up…..

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Apr 22, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Actually, the other three of us are basically Ryan’s bullpen on the recaps.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 22, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

circle of trust badges and all

by APV on Apr 22, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fail, Fail, Epic Fail, Jay, Fail…

I kid.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 22, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, that is not cool. Adam and Andrew were totally rocking the recaps last week. My Dad actually wrote me an e-mail gushing about Adam’s recap of the first Yankees game.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 22, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly. I rarely post, but these game recaps are sensational across the board. They exhibit a rare capacity for instant and meaningful analysis, couched in writing that is enviable.

Keep up the good work.

by Deep South Ken on Apr 22, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

… and pretty pictures and charty things.

by Brick. on Apr 22, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

…especially the charty things!

by LeftyCatcher on Apr 22, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

It may not have been cool, but it was also neither serious nor true. Just for the record. I’ve just gotten in the habit of taking semi-anonymous shots at Andrew. Adam’s collateral damage.

Anyway, yeah, they’re all great.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 22, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Adam’s band is collateral damage.

Fixed

by APV on Apr 22, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

“I’ll show you collateral damage!” -Arnold

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 22, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nobody messes with my crew, that’s all.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 22, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

You don’t scare me, man.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 22, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we have an understanding.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 22, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

To be fair, it’s kind of hard to make a bad meal when the ingredients you have are impeccable. Beating the Yanks opening day, in that fashion?…it’s hard to mess up.

by APV on Apr 22, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

you’re right. i think the credit you’ve received should be rescinded.

by Brick. on Apr 22, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

This statement is not true.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 22, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

And by that I mean both the analogy and the implication. The writing on this site is incomparable.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 22, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I LOVE the new AP photo feature. Makes these recaps golden. Did you guys see the pic of Asdrubal following through on a throw while mid-air – presumably leaping over a baserunner? Dude’s a ridiculous athlete (even in context).

by joeee on Apr 22, 2009 12:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Frustrating pen to watch, but it’s just not possible that all of these relievers turned to dust on April 6. I refuse to believe it. The offense covered for them tonight, and will be the better unit for the year, but there will be times when the pen needs to return the favor, and it will.

Hooray for a win! And losses for others!

by dgcambridge on Apr 22, 2009 1:20 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Best thing about 2009 is that Victor is single-handedly obviating the need to have the “Grady shouldn’t lead off because your best hitter should bat third” discussion.

by FredOx on Apr 22, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions   2 recs

Grady’s still our best hitter, but I know what you mean — huge rec.

Ben Francisco: An Outfielder only on baseball cards and roster sheets.

by westbrook on Apr 22, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it’s hardly clear-cut. Victor and Grady both played full seasons in 2005, 2006, and 2007, and Victor had the better numbers in 2005 and 2007. Grady has the two best seasons between them (2008 and 2006), but Victor has the next three best. And so far, 2009 is all Victor.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 22, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think i will just delete what i was writing now that jay has posted that.

was going to say “it’s close enough” regardless, so put grady’s speed up there.

by Brick. on Apr 22, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Most definitely.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on Apr 22, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s funny you mention this, I was browsing past “All Bets are Off” on STO last week, and some caller said that Victor should be our leadoff hitter because “he hits a lot of singles”. This was at the time when Grady was batting about a 1.50 and his struggles were a topic of a previous caller.

by Toxicadam on Apr 22, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

i actually believe grady is capable of hitting 1.50

by Brick. on Apr 22, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not with those K’s. He’ll never get above .800.

I'm *always* in the driver's seat, cugino -- Chuck

by Turkmenbashi on Apr 22, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

funny that the Indians odds to win the division over the course of 162 games almost doubled as the result of only 8.6% of those games.

You know Selig? Ombudsman.

by rolub on Apr 22, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

In January, I got 8 to 1 to win the pennant and 25 to 1 to win it all. Should I have waited?

by larzko on Apr 22, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can’t wait for the “Circle of Crossed Fingers” era.

by akolenz on Apr 22, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Me too. Circle of Fail makes me hit my head repeatedly on hard objects.

by LeftyCatcher on Apr 22, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

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