Early Weekend 6-pack (4/30/09)

by APV on Apr 30, 2009 8:09 PM EDT

Your 2nd installment of the early weekend 6-pack.

1. Carlos Santana knows how to make a .262 average look sexy. Beau Mills (thus far) does not.

For Santana – 6 HRs, a .405 OBP, and 4 more walks than Ks, good for an OPS over 1.000. Casey Blake never looked so good. For Mills, who I had (and still have) very high hopes for this season, not so much. Just one HR and only 2 walks in more than 80 plate appearances.

2. A year ago the Indians were 12-15, 2.5 games out of first place, and David Dellucci was our best hitter (.871 OPS).

Sunrise, sunset. Sunrise, sunset…

3. The Indians minor league system is functioning properly

I’m going to put together an April summary over the weekend, but there are reasons to be encouraged about our minor league system. Our five highest ceiling (arguably) prospects; LaPorta, Santana, Rondon, Huff, and Valbuena, are off to great starts. Add in great starts from two young pitchers, Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers, and a great major league debut from one of our top relievers, and our system is doing what it is supposed to.

4. If Akron were a major league team, we’d all be kings (or queens)

The Akron Aeros are 16-4 so far this season. Going back through 2002 the Aeros are 591-419 (W% .585). The only season they’ve had with a winning percentage below 56% was the anomalous 2004 season in which they were under .500. Maybe the Tribe should play some "special" games at Canal Park. Or maybe you should just go check out the Aeros.

2009	16	4
2008	80	62
2007	80	61
2006	87	55
2005	84	58
2004	63	78
2003	88	53
2002	93	48

5. Old man McBride probably should be above A-ball

Former catcher Matt McBride, who missed most of 2007 following shoulder surgery and will be 24 next month, probably shouldn’t still be beating up on A-ball pitching. It’s great to see him perform well, but with 15 extra-base hits in 20 games (10 2Bs, 5 HRs) and an equal number of BBs and Ks (9), McBride probably should get promoted. McBride is not much of a prospect, but his 1.187 OPS coupled with his age should give him a ticket to the baseball mecca of Akron

6. The Indians aren’t getting as many groundballs as you might think.

I think we all tend to think of the Indians as being a groundball heavy pitching staff. And indeed, Aaron Laffey (57.1), Fausto Carmona (55.2), and Joe Smith (60.0) are all getting groundballs at good rates. But no one else on the staff is getting more than 46% groundballs, and Masa, Clifton, Betancourt, Reyes, Wood, Perez and Sipp, have all had decided fly ball tendecies. Gutz – where have you gone?

via www.beernuts.com

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Comments

All true, and a real consolation. Plus, I think you might be underestimating Matt McBride. It could be that we’ve never seen him healthy until this year.

On the other hand, let’s not forget the digitally challenged Adam Miller and Nick Weglarz’s .386 OPS.

by ken from alexandria on Apr 30, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions

I think you are overestimating how noteworthy it is that a 24 year old firstbaseman is killing high-A pitching.

by ClarkM on Apr 30, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Gotta consider service time. Age 22 first year full season was ’07. ’08 lost to injury. Not pumping him up particularly, but with college guys a lost year adds up in a hurry.

by mcrose on Apr 30, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not sure what your point is.

He was drafted as a college junior and his first full season was in Lake County. That’s strike one for me because the Indians usually send the better ones to Kinston.

In that season, he put up a .283/.348/.432 line with a ton of doubles and not a lot of strikeouts. That was mildly interesting because he was a catcher. Now that he’s a first baseman, it’s not at all interesting. Strike two.

Last year, at 23, he was hurt for a large part of the season and when he was on the field in Kinston, in about the same number of plate appearances he’s had this year, he was awful. Strike three, he’s no longer a prospect in my eyes. He’s going to have to hit like this in Akron to really re-enter the conversation.

by ClarkM on Apr 30, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Point’s pretty simple – he had a shoulder injury coming out of college, had a decent first full season despite that, last season was a wash, got surgery, now he’s healthy and hitting well. I agree with your last sentence, see below.

I fully subscribe to the age/level discrimination when it comes to prospects. But I have to give a break to college draftees that lose a season due to injury soon after they enter full season ball. Bingo – you’re 24 and don’t have much of a track record.

by mcrose on Apr 30, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions

And just to split hairs, he’s not going to be 24 for a few weeks yet.

by mcrose on Apr 30, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

But I have to give a break to college draftees that lose a season due to injury soon after they enter full season ball.

I tend to subscribe to Jay’s mantra that injury can never be used as a positive indicator. Injuries can certainly provide context – but in this particular case, that context is terrible for McBride. His shoulder problems mean that he went from being a catching prospect (very high defense value) to a first-base prospect (essentially zero defensive value). I support moving people up through the system as their play dictates, and I think McBride’s does, but he’d have to continue to OPS over 1.000 for the remainder of the year at Akron to even enter into the periphery of “interesting” discussions.

by APV on May 1, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s a really good point. What hype we have always heard on McBride was partly based on his being a catcher. if he’d been a first baseman all along, we may not have ever heard of him, and he certainly wouldn’t have been a second-round (supplemental) pick. Now that he’s not a catcher, we should downgrade our expectations of him accordingly.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on May 1, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I hear you, and like I said, the other mantra is “can he do it at Akron”, so I’m not exactly swooning.

But my point, and break, stands – when a college player is forced to take a year off due to injury out of the gate, his age/level context afterwards is simply not equivalent as an indicator to a guy that happens to be on the same roster and is the same age, but has been in the system for five years and has been stuck at that level for three. Just not the same situation, and the glance at age doesn’t give you the same info.

by mcrose on May 1, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

“Service time” apologia are dubious.

Injury apologia are doubly dubious.

The combo injured-college-guy apologiarama is just a vandalized signpost on a lost highway.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on May 1, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

The combo injured-college-guy apologiarama is just a vandalized signpost on a lost highway.

I have no idea what this analogy means but it’s one of the best I’ve heard in a while.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on May 1, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

My favorite Hank Williams song. So, if David Huff had to take last year off, rehabbing with Tony Sipp the whole year, you wouldn’t pick him up on that highway when he had that thumb out somewhere in the boonies outside of Kinston, looking for a ride back to the non-cheatin’ side of town?

by mcrose on May 1, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d pick him up, but I wouldn’t be expecting great things from him.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on May 1, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

And that’s all it is – not writing him off. Whereas, if it were John Drennen a couple years down the road after he turned 24, finally succeeding on his 4th stint in high-A, I might find an excuse to keep driving.

by mcrose on May 1, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay, I can see that, the first-healthy-year thing.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on May 1, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Putting up an OPS over 1.000 wouldn’t “enter him into the periphery” of discussions. It puts him right in the middle.

by dgcambridge on May 1, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I disagree – he’d still be on the periphery. A 24-year old 1st baseman in AA. Think about who is in front of McBride…there would still be more than a few hurdles between him and Cleveland. If he were to come out next season at Columbus and continue to do that – then he’s in the discussion.

by APV on May 1, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Kind of disagree. Not that Progress Score is authoritative, but it sorts these age/level/performance issues out pretty well for hitters. If McBride got to Double-A and put up a neutral OPS of 1000, that would put him at 7.6 (I think). In part because he’s a very young age-24 guy (Age09 of 24.1), and in part because I’m considering him a solid outfielder, which there’s every reason to believe he’ll be. Injury problems aside, he’s too good of an athlete to be slotted in permanently into first base, and the Indians believe in maximizing positional value.

McBride is nine months younger than Wes Hodges, and if he can mash at Double-A, he’ll be pretty close to Hodges’ level of progress.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on May 1, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Side note: I was just looking this: Akron’s pretty close to neutral isn’t it?

Here’s what Dan Szymborski has, 2007:
………..R ….H … 2B .. HR.. BB ..SO
Akron 0.98 1.01 1.00 0.86 0.98 0.90

by dgcambridge on May 1, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think you can consider him an OFer. They tried him out in the OF during the Hawaiian league, but didn’t they decide OF throws were basically too hard on his shoulder? This is also I think where progress score could stand to incorporate some information from previous seasons (weighted to a lesser degree, of course) as a way of getting some sense of mean changes.

by APV on May 1, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Well then we disagree. He’d have been a 24 year old in the bottom third of MLB first baseman. (i.e. an MLB average bat at first = poor firstbaseman. Being 24 would still leave him room to make up the necessary improvement. If that’s not true, why even draft a guy like Tice? He’s useless on the day you got him.

Put another way, 1.000 OPS in the eastern league: What do you think Frisco would do if you dropped him there today? (and let’s totally ignore his SS struggles this year) What about Garko? I think they’d do exactly that: 1.000, and we’d be fine with it.

by dgcambridge on May 1, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Kudos are also due to the Kinston club which leads the league in both team hitting and pitching, despite a fairly modest record.

Salient numbers – the sick OBP’s in the lineup:

Matt McBride: .466
Chord Phelps: .460
Tim Fedroff: .442
Roman Pena: .449
Matt Brown: .474

I too am not really writing off McBride yet as organizational filler. He’s a very good athlete, this is the first time he’s really healthy, and he’s hitting very well with power and plate discipline against lefties and righties. As always, the test will be AA.

by mcrose on Apr 30, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions

Either later today or tomorrow I’ll get the April minor league update up. There’s a lot of good stuff so far from our 2008 draft class and signees.

by APV on May 1, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, there is. It is the best incoming group I’ve seen, including ’03. I can say this because its 2009.

No, I really think its more balanced – hitters and hurlers, college and youth, and without the benefit of 3 picks in the first round.

by mcrose on May 1, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

All that, and we’ve yet to unleash Bryce Stowell on the unsuspecting minor league populace.

by fleerdon on May 1, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Very soon to come, apparently, to Kinston along with Danny Salazar to LC. Tony L seems to have a pretty good pipeline of communication with Atkins.

by mcrose on May 1, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

OT: F Ellsbury; now he breaks up perfect games on infield hits. The first batter I followed on gameday once I learned of it. Boooo. How sick is this, though:

Ben Francisco: An Outfielder only on baseball cards and roster sheets.

by westbrook on Apr 30, 2009 9:33 PM EDT reply actions

I was watching it, just barely got past Garza and died in front of Bartlett. So cheap.

by ClarkM on Apr 30, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions

And Van Every pitches a shutout 2/3 inning!

by mcrose on May 1, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions

and PED called out on this!!!

couldn’t happen to a better guy.

Ben Francisco: An Outfielder only on baseball cards and roster sheets.

by westbrook on May 1, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

After now playing the Yankees and Sox and watching a few Angels games .. I get the feeling that every AL team has some gaping holes in their teams. I know it’s only April , but I don’t really feel there is that big of a gap between the divisions like some people say there is.

by Toxicadam on Apr 30, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I love the fact that you attributed the source of the “Beernuts six-pack” photo. After reading your points, I immediately found myself asking, “Where in the heavens did APV get that amazingly metaphorical photo?”!!!

No, not you. Your helmet!

by PatBordersHelmet on Apr 30, 2009 11:10 PM EDT reply actions

I actually didn’t put that in there – when you import a photo to a front-page story the source tag automatically comes along with it. It does seem like an appropriate six-pack at the moment, though.

by APV on May 1, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

This is how I feel at the moment:

by FredOx on May 1, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I find myself listening to Operation Ivy’s “Bad Town” on repeat these days

by APV on May 1, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I feel more like this:

by hans on May 1, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, it really ties the post together.

No, not you. Your helmet!

by PatBordersHelmet on May 1, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Anyone else going to tomorrow night’s game?

by supermarioelia on May 1, 2009 12:30 AM EDT reply actions

If you mean tomorrow night’s Durham Bulls / Columbus Clippers game, then yes.

by Chemo on May 1, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Didn’t you recently swear off going to see the Indians in Detroit?

by odradek on May 1, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m addicted.

by supermarioelia on May 1, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s no avoiding it. We’re all hooked.

by odradek on May 1, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

My recollection is that Mills started slowly last season as well, but he was both walking at a better rate then as compared to now and a high percentage of his hits last spring were for extra bases. This spring is a little different in those regards, and maybe he should be more of a worry but somehow I think he’ll manage to finish with decent numbers.

by MTF on May 1, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions