Minor Action: April edition
by APV on May 1, 2009 1:08 PM EDT
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PrintA month into the season, I think it is fair to begin looking more systematically at how the significant guys in our minor league system are faring. I’ll focus my attention on the guys that matter, a few exceptional performances from guys that probably don’t matter, and last year’s draft class.
Columbus (9-12, last place)
I really thought Columbus would dominate this season given the talent there. So far, not so much – although they have quite a few great individual performances.
Matt LaPorta: .352/.431/.676, 9.8 BB%, 9.8K%, 11 XBHs, +11 Net
For those who were beginning to get nervous about LaPorta at the end of last season…relax. Quite simply, there is nothing not to like about LaPorta’s line. The countdown is well underway as to when we will see him in Cleveland.
Luis Valbuena: .311/.427/.500, 16.7 BB%, 14.4 K%, 8 XBHs, +7 Net
I argued in a recent GameThread that Valbuena’s performance is in many ways more interesting than LaPorta’s. Valbuena is easily handling AAA pitching while, based on team reports, displaying stellar middle-infield defense. It’s hard for me to not get overly excited about a Cabrera-Valbuena DP combination. Great defense. +.400 OBP. Muy buena.
Michael Brantley: .217/.299/.275, 9.1 BB%, 18.2 K%, 3 XBHs, -1 Net
Brantley has struggled with hamstring issues and is clearly not feeling comfortable at the plate. He’s already more than halfway to his entire 2008 strikeout total. After his rave reviews in spring training, this is disappointing.
David Huff: 3-0, 4.09 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 10.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 36 GB%, -5 Net
Huff is not off to an extraordinary start, and yet has still been effective. Keeping the K-rate over 20% even when he clearly has not been at his best is nice to see. I expect to see his walk rate come back down and GB rate go back up.
Jeremy Sowers: 1-1, 2.25 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 4.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, 42 GB%, +7 Net
Reports have Sowers throwing 93mph, his control has been fantastic so far, and he is getting strikeouts at a higher rate than he has since his debut campaign in 2005. I think many of us, myself included, are skeptical of Sowers. But his success so far this season cannot be ignored and might be the most important performance in Columbus so far this season.
Others…
David Dellucci: .414/.469/.517 – With Hafner DLed, Dellucci’s return is imminent
Michael Aubrey: .404/.431/.635 – I highlight him only because he’s been on a tear
Josh Barfield: .341/.370/.409 – on a 7 game hit streak
Jordan Brown: .309/.371/.509 – another first baseman!
Wes Hodges: .273/.284/.351 – teaming up with Brantley to bring down the offense
Andy Marte: .273/.333/.409 – who? (24 plate appearances)
Chris Gimenez: .151/.270/.245 – another slow, injury tainted start
Wyatt Toregas: .281/.351/.594 – has taken advantage of Gimenez’s struggles with 3 HRs in the past week
John Meloan: 14IP, 14H, 3HR, 4BB, 14K, 5.01 FIP – two bad outings
Akron (16-4, first place)
Despite some early season hitting problems, Akron is finding a way to win in impressive fashion.
Carlos Santana: .262/.405/.623, 19.2 BB%, 14.1 K%, 10 XBHs, +12 Net
As I said yesterday, not all .260 averages are created equally. Santana has been a stud and has done nothing to dampen optimism about his future.
Beau Mills: .266/.286/.380, 2.4 BB%, 14.3 K%, 7 XBHs, -5 Net
This could be going better for Beau. He made big improvements in his plate patience last year, it’d be nice to see him get that back.
Nick Weglarz: .089/.243/.143, 14.3 BB%, 27.1 K%, 1 XBH, -7 Net
Biggest disappointment so far. I wonder how long the Indians will let him struggle before trying to put him into a more comfortable environment, either against lower competition or with a former hitting coach.
Carlos Rivero: .208/.296/.292, 11.0 BB%, 17.1 K%, 4 XBHs, -1 Net
Also disappointing, though the peripherals are much better than with Weglarz. And for whatever it is worth, minorleaguesplits.com suggests he has been getting pretty unlucky with balls in play.
Hector Rondon: 4-0, 1.17 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 4.4 BB%, 24.4 K%, 47 GB%, +14 Net
By all accounts and by all measures Rondon has been sensational. Better competition, more strikeouts, fewer walks, more groundballs, better outcome. If he keeps this up for another month I expect he’ll get an early promotion to Columbus.
Others…
Jeanmar Gomez: 3-2, 3.62 FIP (A+/AA), just made his first start in Akron after getting called up, but has shown improved BB/K numbers so far this season. One to keep an eye on.
Josh Rodriguez: .314/.478/.353 – Valbuena makes it easy to forget Rodriguez exists. Exceptional patience covering up a lack of power so far. Also, 4 errors in the field.
Chuck Lofgren: 1-0, 3.69 FIP – Can 6 no-hit innings in his last outing and back to back great starts awaken long dormant hope?
Jose Constanza: .323/.400/.419, 10/1 SB/CS – this guy just hangs around as a mildly interesting speedy centerfielder…
Kinston (11-10, first place tie)
More great pitching, coupled with some nice performances by highly thought of 2008 draftees in Carolina…
Kelvin De La Cruz: 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 4.4 BB%, 42.2 K%, 29 GB%, +12 Net
The tall lefty absolutely crushed the Kinston competition in his first two starts, getting 19 of his 36 outs via the K. Unfortunately he has been shelved since then, resting a sore arm. Fingers crossed.
Eric Berger: 2-1, 1.42 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 10.5 BB%, 34.2 K%, 44 GB%, +15 Net
Eric, who turned 23 last week, is picking up where he left off last season in his successful debut. His numbers are actually dragged down somewhat by a bad first start.
Zack Putnam: 2-0, 5.00 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 5.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 56 GB%, +15 Net
Another 2008 draftee off to a great start (pay more attention to the FIP than the ERA). Putnam got hit with a linedrive in his last start, forcing him out after just 2 innings, but word is he should be fine going forward. A nice competition between Putnam and Berger to see who might get promoted to Akron first.
Cord Phelps: .306/.452/.444, 19.1 BB%, 14.9 K%, 9 XBHs, +11 Net
Tim Fedroff: .303/.422/.455, 16.9 BB%, 21.7 K%, 7 XBHs, +2 Net
Two more 2008 draftees continuing the early season trend of outstanding patience at the plate. For both of these, but especially Fedroff given his K-rate, it’d be nice to see a little more power.
Lonnie Chisenhall: .274/.344/.440, 8.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 6 XBHs, -6 Net
Lonnie got some love from Baseball America after homering in 3 consecutive games earlier in April. Has cooled down a little since then, but the power and positive reviews of his defense at 3rd (although 4 errors) are nice to see. It’d be good to see him make a little better contact.
Others…
Matt McBride: .412/.468/.718 – yeah, yeah, yeah…
Dallas Cawiezell: 12.1IP, 3 BB, 15 K, 2.22 FIP
CC Lee: 14 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 5.03 FIP
Lake County (8-12, 6th place)
As I mentioned in last week’s early weekend 6-pack, it’s another loaded pitching staff-very little offense club on Cleveland’s East Side this season.
Abner Abreu: .208/.240/.292, 2.7 BB%, 38.7 K%, 5 XBHs, -24 Net
It doesn’t really matter what kind of moon shots you hit in batting practice if you rack up 29 Ks and just 2 walks in your first 75 plate appearances.
Karexon Sanchez: .268/.342/.493, 8.8 BB%, 30.0 K%, 7 XBHs, -2 Net
Add in 8/0 SB/CS and Sanchez is another guy hanging around the peripheries of the interesting crowd. I’m admittedly biased, though, as I really hope to one day witness, for at least one inning of one game, an infield that includes Karexon Sanchez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena – just for the scrabble points.
Joey Mahalic: 0-1, 1.00 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 8.8 BB%, 20.6 K%, 64 GB%, +7 Net
The 20-year old veteran of the Captains pitching staff, following in the organizational footsteps of Aaron Laffey (albeit about a year behind in terms of age). Might get promoted to Kinston soon.
Alexander Perez: 0-0, 1.99 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 8.0 BB%, 26.1 K%, 58 GB%, +11 Net
19-year old Dominican is off to a great start. The Latin American scouting department has been doing its job well.
TJ House: 1-1, 1.53 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 14.5 BB%, 21.1 K%, 51 GB%, +3 Net
Some control problems, but an encouraging debut from the 19-year old House.
Santo Frias: 1-0, 2.38 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 13.3 BB%, 40.0 K%, 53 GB%, +12 Net
One of my favorites going into last season (especially paired with Lord Kelvin) is coming back from missing most of last season with injury. Working out of the bullpen in the early season he has been fantastic. It’d be nice to see him either move back into the rotation at some point or up to Kinston.
Others…
Nate Recknagel: .327/.411/.449 – big 2008 U of M draftee will need to show more power given his defensive limitations
Jeremie Tice: .246/.342/.362 – 2008 college draftee…
TJ McFarland: 0-2, 7.13 ERA, 4.49 FIP – control and BABIP problems for this 19-year old
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If those reports are true about Sowers throwing 93 MPH than I think we can get excited about that because that’s not the same Jeremy Sowers we have seen over the last few years. With that speed and pinpoint control he could up the K% and survive in the bigs.
That’s coming from Columbus manager Torey Lovullo (via Tony Lastoria):
I saw a couple 93s up there [on the scoreboard], and he’s got that in his arsenal. That’s an intangible that we are looking for out of Jeremy where if he has to really reach back and get after it that it is going to be there. He has that 92-93 in him, but he is going to sit at 89-91 and reach back when he needs to.
by APV on May 1, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
You are truly the Grueling Off-Day MVP.
Any chance I could get you to add a Net total to each of the main players listed? I’ll split ’em with you …
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
not today, unfortunately. “real” work to do this afternoon.
by APV on May 1, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Net (for hitters) = BB + XBH + SB – K – 2*CS
Net (for pitchers) = K – BB – XBH – HR
by APV on May 1, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I pay little attention to the A-level players, so seeing a pitcher named CC Lee is eerie. And I’m sure I’m probably the 72nd person to ever mention that.
You know Selig? Ombudsman.
CC Lee is a jackass who doesn’t read.
Sometimes, I just like to b****.
by emd2k3 on May 1, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s funny how you can tell who has and hasn’t read the Annual.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on May 1, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll be surprised if they bring Rondon to Columbus before June, no matter how well he pitches. All-Star break seems more likely. At that point, he’ll have made himself into a legit depth starter option for the big-league club, this season. Quite an accomplishment.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Why is Randy Newsom still in AA? The guy is 27 years old and is now into his 3rd year at Akron. He’s only given up 18 runs in his last 63 innings pitched which is a 2.57 ERA. For a team that doesn’t have overwhelming depth in their bullpen, you would think he would be on the Columbus staff.
Atkins is short-selling him.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on May 1, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This fits with the Rondon comment too, but things look a lot less confusing if you just don’t think of the difference between AA and AAA as being enormous. Leaving a guy in Lake County when he should be in Kinston is a problem. Playing in Akron instead of Columbus isn’t. It’s not going to stunt his development compared to Columbus. I’m not the first guy to suggest it, and you can see it in some of the Tribe’s moves. It’s why Wieters is a stud, without having “proved” himself at AAA.
I think, and emphasizing the think part, this is more true for pitchers than hitters. There are certainly a lot of talented hitting prospects at AA to challenge pitchers. What you don’t have as many of as at AA are failed big league hitters or guys who could just never quite make it. But I don’t think they are hugely significant in affecting pitcher performance (at least for real prospects) between AA and AAA. I think for hitters the jump is more difficult because at AAA you run into more pitchers you have good secondary stuff, but who don’t quite have enough of a fastball to be effective in the bigs. I think from a hitting standpoint these pitchers do represent a challenge to some prospects because of the quality of their offspeed/breaking stuff.
Again – this is just my suspicion, though.
by APV on May 1, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
This is my Big Baseball Thought this season — that the Indians have discovered some special value in AAA that they’re exploiting. My dad was having a conversation with one of the Mud Hens’ guys at a social function recently; the guy said that the big difference between AAAA hitters and the bigs is pitch recognition — nobody makes it that far without being able to hit a fastball that they sit on, but it takes a big leaguer to spoil a breaking ball. That would seem to support your position, though admittedly that’s just one person’s opinion.
I’m also wondering if it’s a useful psychological test for the Indians. If you can’t manage the transition to AAA, how do you manage the transition to Cleveland?
by fleerdon on May 1, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m always more excited/anxious to see how the AA players look and play than the AAA guys, most of the time, when I think about the future of the franchise.
Sometimes, I just like to b****.
Probably because a lot of guys go to AAA and don’t pan out. Which sort of supports the idea that it’s worthwhile for a prospect to play there.
by fleerdon on May 1, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Hello Toxicadam,,
It was mostly because of the bullpen depth and prospects they accumulated in Columbus – Chulk, Aquino, Herges, Salas, Sipp, Meloan, etc., all of whom either had more experience and/or more talent than Newsom
By all accounts, Newsom would have started in AAA, but that depth pushed him down one level, just like it pushed down Kyle Landis to Low-A Lake County instead of High-A Kinston (though he was just promoted). That depth had a ripple effect throughout the whole system. If Newsom can continue to perform at AA, he’ll likely be one of the first, if not the first, to be called up to AAA Columbus when the need arises (whether it’s due to one of the aforementioned, outside of the already-called-up Sipp, is called up or someone is let go).
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Jose Constanza also deserves some credit for being a clubhouse motivator. Apparently he calls everyone on the team “Papi.”
by cleveland teamer on May 1, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions
Screwing up the moderation features …
APV says thanks to FredOx, who worked out the Net figures for the SIngle-A guys.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Thanks to Fred.
Fedroff’s net has been up and down wildly. He was bad early on, then from April 20 to 28 he had a stretch of +8. And then -6 over the last two days.
I really don’t think you can look at it week to week.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on May 1, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, don’t try to take away the joy of overanalyzing. For what’s it worth, it wasn’t about a few extra base hits falling in, it was specifically his strikeouts that stopped and started again.
Sorry, my bad.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on May 1, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
So here’s David Cameron of USSM, weighing in on a little chat I was having with the Lookout Landing crew about Gutz-for-Luis the V trade:
All told, the M’s got something like $35 to $40 million worth of value in return for a broken closer, a ROOGY who was easily replaced by waiver wire fodder, an outfielder who will probably be non-tendered after the season, and one good prospect. Valbuena would have to be the best prospect in baseball for this trade to not look good.
That’s from the M’s perspective, of course. From our perspective, we got that one good prospect.
by fleerdon on May 1, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions
I think he’s overvaluing Gutierrez there a bit. I understand that defense is valuable & all, but the guy has a 67 OPS+ & has basically shown nothing at the plate in the past 2 years.
$40 million isn’t all that much. They’ve got Gootz for four seasons, and he’s put up 2.2 and 2.8 WARP in limited playing time the last two seasons. I think he can keep up that pace and manage 10 WARP for 2009–2012. Wins presently are valued at around $4.8 million for free agents, which I assume is what Cameron was talking about.
Now, why he wants to dismiss Valbuena as just a “good prospect,” which implies performance risk significantly higher than Guteirrez’s, that’s another question.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on May 2, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
If you follow the link, you’ll see he’s discussing the entire trade, in which he believes Frank was the most valuable acquisition, but not all of it, obviously.
by fleerdon on May 2, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Hello APV,
Great report.
A few thoughts:
1. While Brantley’s start is a bit disappointing, keep in mind that he was hitting quite well to start the season until the hamstring issue popped up. Ever since then, he hasn’t been the same – it would not surprise me if it is still giving him issues, especially since the weather in the places where the Clippers have played have been mostly on the cool side, especially during night games.
Therefore, I wouldn’t be too down on Brantley – I think the real Brantley is the one who was performing quite well up until the injury, if his track record is any indication. I’d rather he’d be 100% healthy first, then send him back out there. I’m not convinced he’s 100%, or rather, he may not be confident he’s 100% healthy (perhaps his hamstring is fine, but he may not trust it yet, which could be affecting his hitting and plate discipline, which were very solid up until the hamstring issue – that’s what I mean).
If I calculated correctly, Brantley is 6/35 since his return on April 23 – .171, with 2 BB,10 Ks, 1 SB, and 1 CS. Conversely, he was 10/39 up until April 18 – .256, with 5 BB, 5 Ks, 4 SB, and 0 CS. The BA started to fall off a bit towards the end before his injury (he was hitting between .350-.400 for the first 10-14 games), but the other numbers were much better than the numbers he’s posted since he’s returned from the injury. It could be due to SSS, both the good and the bad, but his overall track record would suggest that he might not be 100%, or isn’t 100% confident in the hamstring. That is why I wouldn’t be that hard on Brantley or read too much into his poor beginning – it’s like a tale of two Brantleys, and the first tale, especially early on, looked like him picking up from where he left off at AA in 2008. If he’s healthy, over time, I think he’ll adapt and live up to the raves he got in the offseason and in Spring Training.
2. As you mentioned, I’m more disappointed and alarmed by Weglarz’s poor start, though he had his best AA night on Friday (3-5, 2 2Bs and a 2-run HR, to left-center field, no less) – I too wonder if he can figure it out up at Akron. If he continues to struggle, I’m sure the Indians would consider putting him back down to Kinston for a bit, based both on his young age and the fact that he didn’t exactly tear up the Carolina League in 2008 – solid numbers, yes, but not otherworldly, so it’s not like he couldn’t fine-tune a bit down there for a bit.
With that said, hopefully, Friday’s outing will give him the confidence he needs to make the adjustments at Akron and enable him to show the skillset that has made him one of the more prominent prospects in the Indians’ system.
Just my 2 cents.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Think you mean omniscient.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on May 2, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
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