Game 38: Cleveland 2, Tampa 4

by APV on May 16, 2009 8:28 PM EDT

In his still young career, the Indians have a good history of beating up on Matt Garza. In the 5 games Garza had started against Cleveland coming into this afternoon's affair, the Indians had put up a .933 OPS. Not today. This afternoon the team only managed six hits, three of them coming from the spirit of Tris Speaker currently residing in the body of Victor Martinez (.409 batting average). Given that lack of offensive output, five singles and a double, it is hard to manage a victory under even the best pitching circumstances.

Carl Pavano, for a while, looked like he might put together that kind of an outing. Pavano struck out each of the first four batters he faced, all of them swinging, before finishing off the second with back to back grounders. Aki Iwamura started off the 3rd with a single, but was quickly erased via a double play. The first notch off Pavano came when BJ Upton led off the fourth with a HR, giving Tampa the early 1-0 lead. Pavano notched two more swinging Ks in the 5th, but not before Tampa extended the lead to 3-0 on the back of a walk, single, multiple stolen bases and another single.

Cleveland made an effort to mount a comeback in the top of the 6th, putting together consecutive hits from Vic, Shin-Soo and Jhonny. When Luis Valbuena fouled out to end the inning, though, the Indians still trailed 3-2, and wouldn't put together anything resembling a rally for the remainder of the game. On the bright side, Aaron Laffey spared the remainder of the bullpen by finishing off the final three innings, allowing a single run in the span.

Next up: David Huff making his major league debut vs. Andy Sonnanstine (1:38 pm)

51609_medium

Highest	WPA	Lowest	WPA
J Peralta	.179	M LaPorta	-.211
V Martinez	.099	L Valbuena	-.175
A Laffey	.070	K Shoppach	-.126

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Comments

I generally like this offense, but the highs and lows kill me. And this team has come back after the 6th inning twice all year, and by my count, has overcome deficits of more than one run at any point in the game twice all year. Most teams lose games in these circumstances, but do most teams lose virtually every game?

by TribeJay on May 16, 2009 9:30 PM EDT reply actions

But in how many of those other games did the deficit widen before the offense could catch up? In how many of them did the offense score what would have been the winning run, had the pitching/defense not surrendered more?

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on May 16, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know, and I don’t honestly know that this is different than what other teams go through. But it sure seems different. If I have time today, I’ll try to do the research.

by TribeJay on May 17, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ll try to do the research.

I might add that it will take me much longer to research the losses than it did to research the wins.

by TribeJay on May 17, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Jay, there are several cases where the deficit widened and impaired their ability to catch up. Your point being, the bullpen’s deficiencies have played a role in this, which I agree with.

However, I really only find one example for your second question. The home opener was a game that the offense kept coming back, but the bullpen was unable to hold the Blue Jays down. If they had, the Tribe probably would’ve won that game. But I can’t really find any other example where that happened.

My larger point is that although the bullpen is the biggest culprit this season, the flip side has killed them too. And outside of 2007, I think that’s been a problem for this offense the past few years.

by TribeJay on May 17, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Holy crap. These little tidbits would’ve saved me a ton of time over the past few weeks. If we’re down 2 runs in the 7th tomorrow, I’m tapping out.

by supermarioelia on May 16, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Now 0-14 scoring three runs or fewer. Again, most teams lose in these circumstances, but do most teams lose every game?

by odradek on May 16, 2009 9:38 PM EDT reply actions

Did some Excel work after being unable to find this elsewhere:

AL Central records when scoring 3 runs or fewer:
KC 6-13
DET 4-8
CWS 3-15
MIN 2-13
CLE 0-14

After discrediting the offense earlier, it is encouraging to note that the Tribe has the second-fewest games of scoring 3 or less runs. If the pitching ever gets better, this team has a shot. And I think timing has killed this team. I believe that six of these games came when Lee was pitching.

Record when scoring 4-7 runs:
MIN 9-6
CWS 6-5
KC 5-5
DET 6-7
CLE 5-9

This is even more damning to the pitching, and even probably the defense.

Records when scoring 22 runs or more:
CLE 1-0
CWS 0-0
DET 0-0
KC 0-0
MIN 0-0

Clearly, this is key to us winning the division…

And, here is runs allowed:
AL Central records when allowing 3 runs or fewer:
DET 16-0
MIN 10-1
KC 14-3
CWS 13-4
CLE 5-4

Record when allowing 4-7 runs:
CLE 8-11
MIN 6-11
KC 5-10
CWS 2-7
DET 2-10

by TribeJay on May 17, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

And, here is runs allowed:
AL Central records when allowing 3 runs or fewer:
DET 16-0
MIN 10-1
KC 14-3
CWS 13-4
CLE 5-4

Record when allowing 4-7 runs:
CLE 8-11
MIN 6-11
KC 5-10
CWS 2-7
DET 2-10

This is quite bizarre

by Roger Dorn on May 17, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, like I said above, their timing is pretty awful. The Tribe and Twins have had the best offenses in the division, so you would think their record when allowing 3 runs or fewer would be terrific. But even though they’ve only managed to do that 9 times, they’ve managed to score 2 or fewer runs four times in this subset of games.

Take this weekend. The held the Rays to less than 5 runs once in the series, yet that was the one game they scored less than five runs.

You’d like to think this is all blind luck. But is it? Is this “tension-factor” that has been discussed an issue? In the last three games, all of which were tight, the Tribe managed one hit each game during the last three innings.

by TribeJay on May 18, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions

I think “pitching to the score” is at least somewhat dubious, and “hitting to the score” seems even more dubious, in that it would be an effect spread out over nine players.

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

by Jay on May 18, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions

“Tension-free”. Wedge said that the other day in reference to the kind of at bats a team should put up when leading by a lot. Considering the source, I found it ironic, telling, sincere, oblivious, true, blinkered, obvious, and an epitaph all at the same time.

It’s not a far-fetched scenario to have this team start playing up to its capabilities and slowly making up 5 or 6 games over the course of the season. But honestly, I don’t see them doing it with Wedge at the helm. Just like last year when it was not hard to predict that the team would play better after CC was dealt, its not a long odds bet to predict the same after Wedge is let go.

Soon after which Perez and Smith rejoin the bullpen, tension-free and getting outs, of course.

by mcrose on May 16, 2009 11:08 PM EDT reply actions

This is a very apropos comment.

by oxforddave on May 16, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you’re right. This “tension free” comment is Wedge’s acknowledgement of problems he has created. He is the father of much of the tension. It is sincere and telling, but he appears not to be aware of the meaning of his statement. But I still don’t feel he will be fired, because the team will play just well enough to hold promise as long as he is here (though probably not well enough to win). We will all think the team is on the verge of ripping off ten straight wins when they get a few breaks.

by odradek on May 17, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Went to a fortune teller last night to find out what’s been bothering me.

We sat and she drew 7 cards, laying 6 of them face up. Then she closed her eyes and put the 7th to her forehead. After a few minutes of meditation she said, “Fire Wedge!” She then put the card down and asked me, “Who’s Wedge?”

It’s late and I plead insanity.

If you believe it's just a game, you're also probably wondering why Santa keeps skipping your house every year.

by LeftyCatcher on May 16, 2009 11:27 PM EDT reply actions