FanPost

Jhonny Peralta is Cold Like the Weather

Following up on my earlier Fanshot, here's a look at the temperature's affect on Jhonny Peralta vs. the rest of the AL. At Jay's request, I looked at batting average, BB/K, and OPS.

I took Retrosheet's AL data from 2003 (the year Peralta entered the league) to 2008.  Here's how the American League fared in terms of batting average:

Al_ba_medium

via img.villagephotos.com

and here's how Peralta fared:

Jp_ba_medium

via img.villagephotos.com

In care they're hard to see, the AL had an r-squared of .47 and Peralta an r-squared of .18.  Not much, but they're both positive.  I also had Excel give me the equation for the trendlines:

AL: average = 0.0007*temperature + 0.2202

Peralta: average = 0.0028*temperature + 0.0484

If I'm interpreting that correctly (and there's no guarantee I am), that means the temperature has four times the affect on Peralta as is does the average AL hitter.

Next. here's BB/K for the AL:

Al_bbk_medium

via img.villagephotos.com

and for Peralta:

Jp_bbk_medium

via img.villagephotos.com

The AL graph had a distinctive curve to it, so I decided to fit a polynomial trendline.  As you can see, the average AL hitter's BB/K ratio improves in extreme temperatures, while Peralta's gets worse.  I'm not sure what, if anything, that means.

Finally, here's a look at the AL OPS:

Al_ops_medium

via img.villagephotos.com

and Peralta's:

Jp_ops_medium

via img.villagephotos.com

The AL had an r-squared of .39 and Peralta .06.  The line equations are:

AL: OPS = 0.0017*temperature + 0.636

Peralta: OPS = 0.0042*temperature + 0.4071

This time - again, if I'm interpreting things correctly - the temperature has 2.5 times the influence on Peralta's OPS as it has on the average AL hitter's.

 

 

 

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