Taking a step back
by APV on May 9, 2009 11:17 AM EDT
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PrintThis week has, at times, felt like a heavy weight pressing down on the Cleveland Indians (and their fans) and nearing that critical point at which the skeletal frame of the organization would snap. The team is 11-19, 7 games out of first place, at the end of the first week of May. We have the worst record in the AL and the only team we are out-performing in all of baseball is the woeful WAAAshington NAAAtionals. Panic buttons, white flags, and parachute packs...
But is it as bad as it seems? Is the season really almost over three weeks before Memorial Day? When I was in college I always used to tell myself - "better to fall behind early, it gives you more time to catch up." Is there any truth, and therefore hope, to that phrase when it comes to the Indians? What is so frustrating is the Indians were supposed to be good. Multiple, smart sources of information thought Cleveland was a favorite in the AL Central, a team which should end up with a victory total in the high 80s, if not the low 90s. The three images below show the Indians actual performance at this point in the season (measured by wOBA - hitters, FIP - pitchers) compared against their projected performance (I used the CHONE projections, available on fangraphs.com).
What can we say? The offense is not the problem. As a whole, the offense is doing what it should be doing, and possibly even out-performing expectations. Which isn't to say it doesn't have some problems. Grady's slump is definitely hurting the team, especially given the number of plate appearances he gets. Peralta's performance has hurt.
The starting pitching, especially after the rough start, also as a whole does not seem to be the biggest issue. Fausto is a problem. He needs to find his control and pitch better. Clifton looks great. Pavano has been (at least to me) surprisingly good. Reyes has been getting lucky and does not generate a lot of confidence. Laffey obviously had been good, but just got shipped into the bullpen.
The bullpen, of course, has been catastrophically bad. Everyone. The real challenge here is that you expect one or two guys to periodically struggle in the pen. When the entire pen is struggling - the potential "fixes" aren't very attractive. You can't just swap the pens in Cleveland and Columbus. You need a few guys who you can confidently insert into high leverage situations to allow other guys to find their stuff in less critical settings. Right now, the Indians don't have that.
There's reason to think the bullpen has to start improving to some degree. They really aren't all this bad. Betancourt has shown signs of improving of late. Wood's stuff has looked good, even if he hasn't deployed it effectively. Laffey might be a plus and take some pressure off the absence of Perez. Speaking of which, Perez now has the chance to sort himself out in Columbus. Jensen Lewis might be (should be) joining him in the Clipper's fix-up shop soon. The struggles are going to give Sipp a shot to prove himself. If the bullpen continues to be a black hole of death and despair, however, the team is screwed. You can't always hand off a 6-run lead to the bullpen. But if the bullpen does get better, the other problems aren't as frightening.
The starting pitching depth at the major league level, especially with Laffey in the pen, is thin. Sowers is, and should be, on a short leash. Reyes should be on that same leash. But...Westbrook is supposedly only 4-6 weeks away. Scott Lewis might be back by the end of the month and may or may help. David Huff isn't far away, and Hector Rondon gets closer everyday. If we can get through May, our depth starts looking a lot better in June. A return of Fausto remains critical, but by the end of June a rotation featuring Lee, Carmona, Westbrook, Pavano and whoever is best among the other options - actually looks pretty good.
One of the things not visible in the charts above is the poor defense. Shapiro made reference earlier this week to the poor defense from the left side of the infield. But here the offensive and defensive solutions might come together. Last night featured the first pairing of Valbuena and 2B, Cabrera at SS and DeRosa at 3B. If Peralta doesn't start hitting better, keeping his offense in the lineup increasingly fails to justify not giving the Indians a (presumably) better defensive alignment. DeRosa is on the team because he has a good bad, which has definitely come alive of late, and because of his defensive flexibility. Valbuena may not be ready to be an everyday offensive starter, but he might be a good semi-regular option, at the expense of ABs from Peralta and/or Ben Francisco (w/DeRosa in the OF). There's good reason to think Grady will start hitting better, and maybe we can hope his not-HR last night is a sign of that.
The Indians 7 game hole is real and presents them with a significant challenge. But that the two most important parts of the team, starting pitching and offense, are doing at least passably well, is significant. If the team can play .500 ball over the next three weeks and begin to stabilize the bullpen, I think the season will still be alive. I would not go so far as to say we're in a good position. No. We are in a terrible position. But perhaps there is hope for Indians fans that in baseball, it is better to fall behind early in the season than late in the season.
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How about putting Anthony Reyes into the bullpen before we cut bait on him? His splits indicate that he’s doing a decent job the first time through the order (allowing only a .520 OPS), but that by the third inning (when the top of the order comes back around again) he’s getting hit hard (and again in the sixth inning). The only problem is his poor walk to strikeout ratio, but if limited to starting an inning as opposed to coming into a men on base situation he may be a better alternative to someone like Masa or Lewis (until Lewis sorts himself out in the minors).
Didn’t the Cardinals try something like this with him in 2008? I sort of recall reading that he was really unhappy in that role and that was partly why St. Louis was interested in dumping him. Maybe my memory’s wrong on this, though.
I totally agree with APV on the bullpen as the center of the problem (as it was last year). I imagine Shapiro is going nuts, since he correctly identified this as the team’s key weakness, did something to fix it (Wood and Smith) and the results have been worse than before. I’m not very optimistic about the prognosis — I agree that Betancourt has shown signs and that Wood is fine. After that, there’s not much, nor a lot of reason for hope. I would expect Perez to rebound, but Lewis is much more of a concern. Masa looks like toast to me. We have to hope that Sipp’s arm holds up and that Laffey is effective in a set up role. Does anyone know what the predictions are about Smith’s eventual return (I think I’ve read some gloomy speculation around here).
And, the bullpen’s woes are more of an issue this year because the starting pitching isn’t as solid as it was last year. Sigh.
Taking a Step Back
An analytical and objective overview, that makes intuitive sense, except for the fact your talking about the Cleveland indians. Go back to 1969. The analysis would have said ‘three outstanding starters, a host of other top notch pitchers ready for a breakthrough season, young hitters in Tony Horton & Duke Sims, solid veterans Max Alvis, Larry Brown and Joe Azcue. The Tribe should contend.’ Reality? ‘0’ for April, a 100 loss season. Or think back 1987. ‘Carter, Jacoby, Bernerzard, Snyder, Butler, Franco, Mel Hall. Murderers Row!. Swindell, Candiotti, Camacho out of the pen. Expect a solid season and post season’ Reality? 100 plus losses. The normal rules do not apply here, and that is why I am firmly convinced, and of the unshakeable belief that in my lifetime I will never, ever see the Tribe win a WS.
Except this isn’t anything like 1987. You know who we had in AAA in 1997; Jay Bell, Junior Naboa and John Farrell. Those were our best prospects. In Williamsport (our then AA team), we didn’t have a single positional player under the age of 23, and Rod Nichols and Joe Skalski were our only two pitchers who fit that description. I would place money 100 times out of 100 that this team and even more the top levels of this organization, would be better across 162 games than the 1987 team.
Williamsport had a AA team and Erie was short-season? Who makes these decisions?
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on May 9, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Great as always.
I think there has been some overreacting as of late, but I also think that, at least on this site, we’ve been a bit conditioned as fans to believe in the process and keep a bit of an even keel (which is a bit shocking, since we still seem to ride the peaks and valleys pretty hard), and it was both cathartic and fun. The hole we’re in isn’t insurmountable, but they need to start climbing out of it pretty quick.
The bullpen conversations are all pretty accurate, though. It’s bad, and there are only so many options to fix. it none of which are particularly appealing.
I would like to see Reyes in the bullpen rather than Laffey, as hans suggests. Sowers, too. Working on a supreme sample size of 1 this year, but from my recollections, Sowers gets in trouble after guys adjust to him. Reyes or Sowers wouldn’t have to be longmen necessarily, but guys to start an inning.
Now that the FO has opened the door to moving guys from the rotation to the ‘pen, it seems like we have guys I’d rather see there than Laffey this year.
Il faut d'abord durer.
conditioned as fans to believe in the process and keep a bit of an even keel (which is a bit shocking, since we still seem to ride the peaks and valleys pretty hard), and it was both cathartic and fun.
If any of us gets to the point of interpreting the organizations supposed drive to maintain an even keeled emotional approach as the approach we should strive to take as fans I think its time to take a break from all of this and simply remind ourselves what being a fan of something is like. We are not part of this team and have little influence on their performance. We should ride the peaks and values, where’s the enjoyment in being even keeled?
by hans on May 9, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I ended up rushing this because I had to run out – but my main point is that the Indians, outside of the bullpen, still look like the same fundamentally sound team they appeared to be coming into the season. In areas where there are weaknesses in the rotation and offense, Shapiro’s focus on having depth in the system looks like a good approach to the problems in Cleveland. The one outlier being the bullpen, which is just a giant clusterf—- at the moment. It’s a testament to how even the least significant part of the team, if catastrophically bad, can sink a team. But the situation would be much more dire if all of our starters looked terrible, or if our whole offense looked terrible. In either of those situations, I think the season would be done. But that, fortunately, is not the case.
The fundamentals of our team are strong.
by dgcambridge on May 9, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
the situation would be much more dire if all of our starters looked terrible, or if our whole offense looked terrible. In either of those situations, I think the season would be done.
This is what gives me comfort. If we HAD to have one area of the team totally implode, I think the bullpen is the easiest to stomach and the least devastating overall, compared to offense or SPs. I still have faith that with some more personnel tinkering and with at least a couple relievers finding their groove and living up to expectations, the bullpen is fixable. And like others have said, it’s better to have this problem happen in the beginning of the season rather than later.
by cleveland teamer on May 9, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for this write up. It’s nice to read a level-headed, but realistic, assessment of where we are. I like reading pieces like this a lot more than the game threads sometimes, because we all get caught up in the moment and forget numbers. And let’s face it, we’ve had some emotionally numbing losses this year that would drive any fan, thinking or not, batty.
I remain cautiously optimistic that we can still have a decent, if not dominant, season. The offense is definitely no the problem. Rarely does a team have all 9 hitters hot at the same time, so I’m not that worried about Grady and Jhonny (though it’s entirely possible that they’ll heat up and others will cool down). After 30 games last year we were 14-16.
We had scored only 132 runs, as opposed to 158 this season (about the difference from the 22 run Yankees game).
The SP, as many have observed, seems to be stabilizing. After 30 games we had given up 126 runs, as opposed to 179(!) this season. But if we take away a few bad starts early on and, well, the entire bullpen, it looks a lot more tolerable. Adam isn’t the only one who’s been pleasantly surprised by Pavano. I don’t know what the hell happened to Fausto’s control. I want to see Laffey back in the rotation and Sipp very carefully used as our situational lefty/set up guy until RP is back on track. JLew does not currently belong in the bigs. And, having seen him pitch here a lot, I actually think Herges could be a good solidifying righty out of the pen. Other than the HR the other night, I thought he looked good. The real problem is that the bullpen is the one area where everyone has been bad, other than a couple of shining performances by Wood and Sipp. I’m hoping that some of this resulted from early over-use, which will be less of a problem if the SP continues being solid. Also, out of SP, RP, and hitting, it seems like RP is the one area that is conceivably subject to a short term fix (Vizcaino? A trade?).
But yeah, the tank is running out of oxygen fast. LGT!!!
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on May 9, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions
It’s said that baseball is a game of adjustments. I wonder if Eric Wedge has done any soul search on what adjustments he should be making. Not in the managing of the game, but rather adjusting the way he relates to the players, motivates them, etc.
On this date over the past 8 years the Tribe is averaging 6 games out of first at .439. Once in first, this year in last and the rest in 3rd or 4th.
Something needs adjusting.
NDIANS (11-19): CF Grady Sizemore, SS Asdrubal Cabrera, C Victor Martinez, RF Shin-Soo Choo, 3B Mark DeRosa, DH David Dellucci, 1B Ryan Garko, LF Ben Francisco, 2B Luis Valbuena. RHP Fausto Carmona (1-3, 6.11).
I’m happy we have the good infield defense tonight with Fausto on the mound. I’d like to see LaPorta in there against Jackson, though, even if only as DH.
Mail it in ...
It is indeed very difficult to accept, but it is looking increasingly so like the season is over before we even hit the traditional June swoon.
My oh my how far the Indians have fallen. With the economy in decline, Shapiro’s only “bullet” was spent on Kerry Wood. as it turns out, the low cost reclamation projects of Reyes, Pavano, etc were not enough.
The loss of Hafner capably anchoring the middle of the lineup over the course of the last few years is huge. Now it’s pretty much all up to Victor, and despite his valiant efforts, opposing pitchers will soon choose to pitch around him and face the mediocrity that now makes up the middle of the Tribe’s lineup.
Yep, it’s a recessionary situation all around; even for our beloved Indians. Sigh …
The only thing I can say is that the Indians should have NEVER left Florida for spring training. The new Goodyear, Phoenix curse has begun. [God I hope that isn’t true …]
by SpringTrainingFun on May 9, 2009 11:49 PM EDT reply actions
You Were Never Going To Win Anything With Your Rotation
Anyone who thought the Indians were favorites to win the AL Central with a rotation of Lee, Carmona, Pavano, Laffey, Reyes doesn’t understand baseball. You can’t win without pitching and that rotation is easily the WORST in the division. Even if Lee repeated his 2008 form and Carmona his 2007 form, that still probably would not be good enough because you were always going to be lucky to play .500 ball in games started by your 3 thru 5 starters. You don’t need a detailed anaysis with all kinds of graphs and charts to understand that. Now that the season is 6 weeks old, that cold hard reality has smacked you in the face. Your hope is that Laffey can turn into something good eventually and maybe you have a couple of young guys in the minors you can give some innings to this year in the hope they could be good next year. 2009 is not your year!
by martindownunder on May 10, 2009 12:13 AM EDT reply actions
Westbrook. Even without him, I’d have to say the Indians have a better starting rotation than the White Sox and the Tigers. We’ll see how far Bartolo goes, and I don’t think Galarraga and Jackson and Porcello keep it up.
you were always going to be lucky to play .500 ball in games started by your 3 thru 5 starters
In fact, all teams are lucky to play .500 ball in games started by their 3 thru 5 starters — but hey, let’s not disrupt your pissy little rant with actual facts, logic, or math, right?
Fact is, outside of the first few days of the season, the Indians rotation basically has been average, producing a little over six innings per start with an ERA around 4.50. It now seems clear that the first starts by Pavano and Lee were not representative of what they can do this year.
You need some more charts and graphs, and facts, and clues.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
The offense is not the problem. As a whole, the offense is doing what it should be doing, and possibly even out-performing expectations. Which isn’t to say it doesn’t have some problems. Grady’s slump is definitely hurting the team, especially given the number of plate appearances he gets. Peralta’s performance has hurt.
Adam, I agree that the bullpen is by far the biggest culprit. That said, even though the offense looks good in some respects, it seems to underachieve in helping the team win games. This is just my opinion, but it seems that this team over the past few years hasn’t been as consistent as other teams in scoring 4-6 runs per game. They’ll have run-scoring outbursts, but have more than their share of low scoring games. Can you determine if our runs scored has more deviation from the mean than other teams? Again, it’s just my opinion and it’s probably affected by watching this team day by day, but I think it’s been a problem for the last few years.
When this team faces a good pitcher on top of his game, it seems to struggle in getting 2-3 runs that might give the team a chance to win. Instead, they get shutout or score one. As the noted philosopher Clifton Lee has noted, you can’t win if you don’t score.
If the team can play .500 ball over the next three weeks and begin to stabilize the bullpen, I think the season will still be alive.
Unfortunately, I am not hopeful our season will still be alive with three weeks of .500 ball. The reason for my Eeyore attitude is that I am still guessing the AL Central will be won by a team with 90 wins, which is equivalent to a winning percentage of .555 over the season (KC and Detroit are currently playing about .565 ball).
If the Tribe plays .500 ball over the next three weeks (and assuming six games per week), we will be 20-30 with 112 games remaining. To hit that 90 game threshold, we would need to have a winning percentage of .625, which is to win 70 of the final 112 games. For comparison, the amazing second half of last year, the Tribe’s winning percentage was .597. A similar performance would only get us to 87 from a 20-30 mark.
On a league-wide basis, the best team each year flirts with 100 wins (.617 winning percentage). So on a comparative basis, in order for the season to still be alive from a 20-30 mark, we would have to be the best team in baseball for the final 112 games.
At this point, I think we have to do a little better than .500 ball over the next three weeks AND we need our division rivals to play below .500 ball. Both goals can be accomplished if we can win our divisional games, but series like last weekend’s can simply not happen.
In my opinion, the sense of urgency in the front office is appropriate as this season could be lost in the next three weeks, and I think .500 ball would do it.
So on a comparative basis, in order for the season to still be alive from a 20-30 mark, we would have to be the best team in baseball for the final 112 games.
While it might seem counterintuitive, there are a lot more teams that play .600 ball for 112 games than 162.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Yes, that’s a little counterintuitive. A higher variation of winning percentages over smaller sample sizes make sense. However, I would assume that the variance would greatly diminish at 30+ games (once you’ve achieved a normal distribution). Over 112 games, I definitely would expect more normalized results, which would lead me to believe that running off a .625 winning percentage for a consecutive stretch would be a near league-leading effort.
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