It's all down hill from here...

In a subscriber only article, BP points out that the Indians have the greatest discrepancy between there difficulty of schedule up until June 9th and from June 10th to the end of the season.

The winning % of teams faced so far: Indians .515
The winning % the rest of the way: .483

The White Sox are at the other end of the spectrum:

The winning % of teams faced so far: Indians .482
The winning % the rest of the way: .517

over 2 years ago haymister 17 comments 0 recs |

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Is that with head-to-head games taken out? Otherwise it’s a bit confounded, isn’t it?

by Logodaedalus on Jun 12, 2009 2:55 AM EDT reply actions

Doesn’t appear so, but the winning percentages are “PECOTA-adjusted.” Based on Jaffe’s original article from the spring, I took that to mean that he re-ran PECOTA for post-June 9th games and so the SoS numbers are assuming a 162 game season—the games already played and the full-season projections.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jun 12, 2009 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I actually remember the prognosticators saying something similar before the season even started. I don’t remember who specifically, but someone said the Indians just needed to finish the first 1/3 of the season at .500 and they would have a real shot at winning the division. Of course, I don’t think many people thought our division would be THIS weak which might give a team 8 games under .500 a chance.

Right.

I know.

But a fan can dream, can’t he?

I just wanted to believe.

by mjmarble on Jun 12, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions

I take some of that back. I honestly believe that a team that is playing well and that has an upside (ie. players returning from the DL) can make up a game on the division leader every 10 days or so. Thus, with more than 80 days left in the season, I think we still have a slim chance. We really need to start making up some ground between now and the AS Game in order for the FO to hold off on trading away guys. Then again, I don’t think trading away a player on the ML team means we’ve necessarily given up. A DeRo trade for some SP help might serve both teams well, for instance.

If this team doesn’t pick up a couple games in the next two weeks, though, we really need to start trading for next year.

I just wanted to believe.

by mjmarble on Jun 12, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Even if we believe we can say with some confidence now how our season is shaping up it’s the season’s the rest of the division are having that keep me thinking there might be some hope. The West is equally puzzling; I think there is a decent possibility the A’s could take that division even coming from last place.

by MTF on Jun 12, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

Even if we believe we can say with some confidence now how our season is shaping up it’s the season’s the rest of the division are having that keep me thinking there might be some hope.

I’ll be honest — it took me a good 4 reads to figure out what this sentence meant.

by Logodaedalus on Jun 12, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

It was garbled, that’s for sure. I keep trying to figure out what my excuse is for not wanting the Tribe to put up a “For Sale” sign on our veterans just yet and end up saying all sorts of weird stuff.

by MTF on Jun 12, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions