John Sickels American League Central Draft Impressions
Likes the White pick, but doesn't comment on him being moved to the bullpen. Given some time to let it sink in, what do you all think of the draft strategy of this team?
over 2 years ago
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I haven’t been able to detect any late-round flier picks in the Indians draft coverage. I haven’t exactly combed through the data to figure it out for myself, but does anyone else have any info about this? Any Stowells or Houses in there?
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I noticed a couple of catchers, Max Muncy, HS Texas, and Xorge Carrillo, Juco, who looked intriguing for their spots, and a quick check indicated that both were committed to top college programs. And the high school lefty Tyler Joyner, our very last pick, who will likely head to ECU. And one of our “early” HS picks, Blake Hauser:
“They were in touch with my dad,” he said. “They asked if there was wiggle room in the price I wanted, and I said no.”
Hauser, who declined to divulge that price, watched the draft on the Internet. He stopped watching after the 18th round.
“I wasn’t frustrated,” he said. "I was curious to see if I’d get picked. If they didn’t match my deal, I’d go to VCU happily.
My main observation is that the draft strategy appears to be greatly influenced by Ye Auld Penne Panycke of Aught Nine. Not only generally in the prevalence of college arms that seem to be best projected for future pen work, but specifically in the one who doesn’t – our #1 draft pick Alex White.
Of course, every college pitcher that seems to have a strikeout pitch can be viewed as a future bullpen possibility, whether taken in the 1st or 43rd round. But very few can be viewed as a possible #1 or 2 starter. To officially state from the getgo that White is destined for a relief role seems, to be very blunt, very stupid. And stupidity, as I’m sure Shap would agree, is something this organization should keep to a minimum.
I look for him to start out in the high-A rotation next year, “for the reps”, and quickly show that he is a starting pitcher with qualities that are currently hard to find in our system. If I were to bet, I’d wager the planned move to the pen will become a bit of an issue at some point, at least for those who follow and report on such things, if not in the FO itself.
Brad Grant had some extended comments about this on Lastoria’s site. In essence, he said they were going to move White to the bullpen from the beginning, never really giving him a chance as a starter.
I agree with you that it’s stupid and I disagree that he’s going to be given a chance to pitch his way out of the bullpen, which is stupider.
I look for him to start out in the high-A rotation next year, "for the reps", and quickly show that he is a starting pitcher with qualities that are currently hard to find in our system. If I were to bet, I’d wager the planned move to the pen will become a bit of an issue at some point, at least for those who follow and report on such things, if not in the FO itself.
But there’s a confirmation bias problem. The only way for White to get out of the bullpen is to pitch well. But the better he pitches out of the pen the more the Indians will feel validated in moving him to the pen.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I was assuming he wouldn’t be in the pen right away – Nick mentions above that Grant sez that won’t be the case. I looked at Lastoria’s site and this was the only relevant quote I found:
Grant: “…we will probably slow-play it once we do get him signed, but we will begin the transition to the bullpen probably next year.”
Seems to still imply (hopefully) that he will start the year in a rotation, and at some point (probably during the year, possibly the next year) he will move to the pen. Reading tea leaves at this point – Grant may have the final say on who is picked in the draft, but he doesn’t have the final word on how best to develop that player afterwards.
The Indians don’t plan on pitching White very much, if any, this year because of the number of innings he’s already pitched.
But look, I’m as disappointed as anyone with moving White to the bullpen. But it seems naieve to assume that Grant and Shapiro aren’t on the same page regarding their number 1 pick. I have a hard time believing Shapiro would just sit quietly and allow Grant to spread false information.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry if I gave that impression – I’m just saying Grant’s word is not the final one. Further evaluations are made after a player starts playing. In other words, they can change their mind.
Agreed. But like I said if you view a player as a reliever then it makes it highly unlikely you’ll turn him into a starter. I suspect that most situations where this would happen are outside of the player’s control, ie shortage of starting pitchers.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t comment on White directly, but I don’t mind drafting a guy to be a plus-arm in the bullpen. Everything I read suggests that he could be a stud there. We just paid $20 M for two years to get big arm there. I understand that you’d like to have the extra innings out of the rotation, but that rests on the idea that he’d be equally effective there. The Indians have been very clear that they believe his stuff is considerably more effective in the pen.
This doesn’t seem clearly stupid to me. And yes, I agree that they have plenty of innings to evaluate this choice.
I can’t tell if your frustation is based on a) White’s stuff, b) whether the Indians can really know White’s stuff yet, or c) the old idea that the pen should be filled with failed starters.
Most of the above. As I said, my impression is that the recent hysteria over lack of bullpen arms had something to do with the draft strategy, including looking at White thru bullpen-colored glasses.
I haven’t heard or read a single other source that preferred him in the pen over starting. Quite the reverse – by all accounts he has that fairly rare combination of stuff, stamina, command, repertoire and poise that makes projected “plus” starters so valuable. Its definitely true that those same qualities would also qualify you for backend work, but one of these sets is bigger than the other.
I don’t mind drafting a guy to be in the bullpen either – we drafted about 20 of them last week. And I don’t think its stupid to point out that your #1 pick has the stuff to be a dynamite closer if he doesn’t have what it takes to be a dynamite starter. I do think its stupid to decide that before you’ve even signed the guy.
I think the draft strategy had little to do with hysteria, and much to do with (a) where the talent was, and (b) recent evidence that moving a live college arm into the bullpen is a viable way to get quick and solid ROI from a high draft pick.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
We also have even more recent evidence that the experienced AAAA guys you have stashed in in the upper levels of your farm system can make perfectly good relievers without screwing around with suddenly converting your developing starting pitching prospects to the same role.
But you’re right about the viability of using the draft to improve the bullpen. I just think this draft was a little over the top in pursuing that. Even so, it does look like we got some live arms to throw into the mix, and did a decent job getting college position players to fill the short season rosters.
My main concern was the future of our #1 pick. I like him as a starter – I can’t see much not to like there. He profiles better than Guthrie, Sowers or Huff. He’s younger, bigger, stronger, and while he may not have the extreme college polish (as in already apparently close to ceiling) they did, he has the required repertoire and the potential to be a lot better.
I can’t comment on White directly, but I don’t mind drafting a guy to be a plus-arm in the bullpen. Everything I read suggests that he could be a stud there. We just paid $20 M for two years to get big arm there. I understand that you’d like to have the extra innings out of the rotation, but that rests on the idea that he’d be equally effective there. The Indians have been very clear that they believe his stuff is considerably more effective in the pen.
Where is this evidence that suggest White would be more effective in the bullpen/not an effective starter? I haven’t seen any compelling evidence to back up either of these claims. I have as much faith as anyone in the front office, but to suggest that there is clear compelling evidence supporting this move is far fetched.
The Indians scouts are much better at evaluating talent than all of us, so I still give them the benefit of the doubt
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
The Indians scouts are much better at evaluating talent than all of us, so I still give them the benefit of the doubt
That’s all I was doing. Here you go.
The article headline says “Opinions vary on Indians’ first-rounder Alex White” but they don’t cite anyone other than Brad Grant who says he should pitch out of the bullpen. In fact they don’t even make the argument that he should pitch out the pen they just restate what has already been said by the Indians and Grant several times.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, the Indians believe his stuff is better out of the pen (and probably that its the faster route too). I don’t get the impression that you are doubting that he could be good in the pen, or that the Indians believe that.
I think you just have trouble with the “not an effective starter” point. I don’t have any evidence of that: those are your words. I’m just saying that the Tribe believes he’s better suited for the pen, and potential plus guy there.
I have no idea what you’re trying to say.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
We just paid $20 M for two years to get big arm there
What’s the going price for a quality starting pitcher? More than $20 million that’s for sure. And whatever that number is, its a lot more than the Indians can afford.
There’s a reason why starting pitchers are so valuable. They’re a rare commodity that’s hard to find. A frontline 1-2 starters is even harder to find. And that’s my problem. If you have a chance to draft or develop a potential ace you have to take the risk. If White doesn’t pan out as a starter then we can talk about moving him to the pen. But to relegate him to the bullpen without even seeing if he can be an effective starter seems very premature.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Been scratching my chin about this. Here’s what I got.
1. White’s been a horse in college. Even if there’s a long-term plan to make him a starter, it may be in the best interest of his health to use him as a reliever for a while. This is not, by contrast, the situation we had with Jensen Lewis, who had worked as a reliever in college, then became a starter to kick off his pro career to get his innings in.
2. The adjustment to professional starting is much slower — several years, unless you’re in the Tigers system. Let’s put it this way: There’s virtually no chance at all that White would start for the Indians in the next two years, but there’s a reasonable chance he can relieve for the Indians within the next two years. If he’s as good as you make him out to be, why not get the benefit of those innings topside?
3. I’m not a biometrics guy; maybe I’ll email Kyle Boddy and ask him to weigh in. But I wonder if the Indians just looked at White’s delivery and said, eeeh, let’s not make him wreck himself. That seems unlikely with a first-rounder, but, like I said, it’s not my area.
These all seem more probable to me than “Brad Grant is an idiot.” I guess I could distill it to: Everybody wanted the Indians to take the best talent on the board with this pick, and nearly everybody agrees that’s what they did. Then they put him on the track that gets him to the majors soonest. I want to complain about it, but I’m not sure I can.
by fleerdon on Jun 15, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
You make a lot of valid points. First and foremost anyone who blames White’s move to the bullpen on Grant is an idiot. Grant isn’t making an uniformed unilateral decision without Shapiro’s knowledge or consent. If Grant says White is moving to the pen its pretty clear that he’s speaking for the front office.
The best explanation for White’s move to the pen is your third point about White’s delivery. If you think White’s delivery or some other factor will prevent him from becoming an effective starter then you move him to the pen. I still think this is premature, but it provides a solid justification for turning him into a reliever. (Though I still question why you’d spend $2 million and a first round pick on a reliever.)
You’re also right that a move to the pen gets him to the majors sooner. But this gives support to the point some people are making about the front office making an impatient/knee jerk reaction. I wouldn’t go as far to always rule out moving a potential starting pitcher to the rotation to get him to the big leagues faster, but turning a potential ace into a reliever because you’re impatient would be highly irresponsible.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Everybody wanted the Indians to take the best talent on the board with this pick, and nearly everybody agrees that’s what they did. Then they put him on the track that gets him to the majors soonest. I want to complain about it, but I’m not sure I can.
I would argue that a reliever is never the best talent on the board in the first round.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I’m onto this now.
You’re working with the idea that White will achieve some value as a pitcher — call in 100 — in X years. The next part of your equation seems to be multiplying that value by the innings pitched. So it’s all pretty simple: [100 times innings as a starter] > [100 innings as a reliever].
The Indians seem to disagree with you in two ways. First, they think he’s more effective as a reliever — so he’s like a 115 out of the pen, maybe, as opposed to being a 100 as a starter. Then, they think he’ll get to the big leagues sooner — in Y years, and Y < X, maybe by a lot. And maybe, when you combine that with the rationales we talked about upthread, you get something like
[100 times innings as a starter in X years] < [115 times innings as a reliever in Y years]
Sorry if this is getting too spacey. The larger point is, I think we can disagree about the truthfulness of what the Indians say are their justifications. I don’t know if I’m on-board with all of it myself. But if they’re right — if White will be considerably more effective out of the pen, and get here sooner — then I’ll concede they’re making the proper move.
by fleerdon on Jun 15, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll concede they’re making the proper move
because of which, I’m sure scores of Indians employees are now sleeping easier.
by fleerdon on Jun 15, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s a lot of interesting math that still does nothing to prove that White is more effective as a reliever or ineffective as a starter.
That’s where the conversation begins and ends in my opinion. Because if you do feel White will be an effective starting pitcher, say at least a #3 starter, then he’s still more valuable than being a good reliever. If he’s a future closer then the decision looks a little better. But I’d still argue that a #3 starter is more valuable and harder to find than a closer.
by world dictator on Jun 15, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn’t prove it, because it can’t, and neither can anybody here. Which — I think — is all I’m trying to say. If the Indians are right, that White is just THAT MUCH BETTER as a reliever, and he’ll be up THAT MUCH SOONER, well, hell, move him. But since that’s what they’re doing, I hope they’re right.
by fleerdon on Jun 16, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
The question isn’t will White make a good reliever. The question is will White make a good starter? If the answer to the second question is a yes then he should’ve stayed in the rotation. Even as a middle of the rotation starter White is more valuable than a very good relief pitcher.
I completely understand the “good reliever, sooner in Cleveland” school of thought, I’m just saying that its non responsive to the objections people are voicing about moving White to the pen.
by world dictator on Jun 16, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
How is it non responsive? You’re setting it up as a binary question – will he make a good starter, yes or no?
But fleerdon is doing it correctly: it is a comparison between his starting ability/projectability and his relieving ability/projectability, and factoring in the shortened time frame with the latter. It’s possible that the Indians have done this exact analysis, and decided on option 2. Maybe they’re wrong, maybe not.
Fleerdon is justifying his decision making calculus using assumptions that those of us criticizing the move are questioning.
The basis for moving White to the pen should be centered around a binary question. Will White make a good starting pitcher, yes or no?
First, if White doesn’t project well to the rotation then the Indians shouldn’t have selected him in the first place. At the time White was selected there were several highly talented pitchers still available so it was foolish to draft a reliever so high. Especially when you’re going to be paying him $2 million as a first round draft pick.
Second, potential Aces don’t grow on trees. if you find one then you should give them every opportunity to succeed as a major league starting pitcher. Even if White didn’t turn into a #1 pitcher its very likely that he could’ve become a very solid middle rotation pitcher.
Third, even if you believe White might project better out of the bullpen its foolish to move him there so early. At least give him a chance to start in the rotation and see how he performs against professional batters before you make drastic decisions based purely on assumptions.
by world dictator on Jun 17, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
The basis for moving White to the pen should be centered around a binary question. Will White make a good starting pitcher, yes or no?
if White doesn’t project well to the rotation then the Indians shouldn’t have selected him in the first place
At the time White was selected there were several highly talented pitchers still available
Even if White didn’t turn into a #1 pitcher its very likely that he could’ve become a very solid middle rotation pitcher.
Third, even if you believe White might project better out of the bullpen its foolish to move him there so early.
Full story here.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
No warrant isn’t a counter warrant. Try again maybe?
Though it’d probably be helpful if the “move White to the pen” defenders actually had an argument other than “the Indians think he’ll project better out of the pen.”
by world dictator on Jun 18, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
This has fallen off my front page, but you’re mistating the discussion. Fleerdon and I were both very up front that we aren’t scouting this kid, and have no idea how to project.
The problem I have is the insistence here that any scenario where the Indians draft a pitcher in the middle of the first round and start him in the pen is stupid. That’s the problem.
If you want to instead focus on the particulars of Alex White, that’s fine. But as you note, the Indians’ point of view on White has been posted here, and that’s one more than piece of evidence than you’ve brought.
I don’t know if I buy in to the biometrics, although that may very well be part of the FO’s logic. I think it’s still up in the air whether we can predict the likelihood of future injury based on pitching motion.
Steel Nick
Sure seemed like it with Reyes. I think, in any event, there’s a very good chance we can predict injury based on workload. Which is why, with the caveat that I have done 0:00 minutes of research on this, I think #1 is the critical thing.
by fleerdon on Jun 15, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
But to relegate him to the bullpen without even seeing if he can be an effective starter seems very premature.
More than premature, it’s completely unnecessary.
One thing that doesn’t appear to have been mentioned…White apparently looked very good out of the bullpen in last year’s CWS. His velocity was noticeably better.
Maybe they saw that and also think that he only has one good offspeed pitch. I watched the game on Sunday and thought the Arizona St batters were really having a tough time picking up the ball, so his 92 mph looked like 96 mph. In my opinion, he profiles as Papelbon. Hopefully not in comportment, however.
I too would probably like to see him start and see what happens. But it doesn’t upset me too much.
Most reports I’ve read state that White has at least three potential major league pitches. A plus fastball, a slider and a split finger. Even when he starts his velocity hits up to 94 mph
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2009/268323.html
by world dictator on Jun 17, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
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