The Next Three Series
by NCTRIB on Jun 2, 2009 9:11 AM EDT
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PrintMaybe I am a dreamer, but I still believe this team could win such a flawed AL Central. That being said, I believe the next nine games (Minn, CHI, and KC) will tell tribe fans a lot more about the rest of the year. With all the injuries and pitching woes, I think that one thing that has been overlooked by some is the number of games we have played against a very strong AL East teams (Bos, Tor, NYY, and TB) compared to the rest of the division.
I think winning at least two out of three of these series is critical and will determine what the front office will do with this team. I think if we can come out of this stretch of nine game 5GB or less, I think we might have a legit shot at the AL Central. What makes me think this? Mostly, the return of key parts like Westbrook, Sizemore, Hafner (maybe), Laffey and, Raffy R which will make July and August very good months for this team. I like the way a rotation of Lee, Pavano, Westbrook, Laffey and Huff (or someone we get for DeRosa) sounds and sets up for a stretch run to try and win the division.
This is my first shot at post something so if I did something wrong please let me know and I will correct it. Just thought I would get peoples thoughts on the next few weeks.
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That being said, I believe the next nine games (Minn, CHI, and KC) will tell tribe fans a lot more about the rest of the year.
I think this is probably correct. Giving up ground in head to head series with AL Central opponents right now would be pretty devastating. It seems unlikely, but I almost want to say that we have to take 2 out of 3 in each of these series. If we do anything in the neighborhood of winning just 1 of 3 in each series, the trade season/reconstruction begins.
I agree (I’m new). We also have to hope we can get in a position to only be 5 or 6 out of 1st in the central… Here is who the central plays the next three series in order:
Tigers – Boston, Angels, ChiSox (5 game series— Double Header on Monday)
Minn- (Tribe), Seattle, Oakland
ChiSox— Oakland, (Tribe), Detroit (5 game series— Double Header on Monday)
KC — Tampa Bay, Toronto, (Tribe).
Boston could give the Tigers trouble, and TB and Toronto will give KC trouble…
We’ll wait and see…
I think it’s unrealistic to say if we are 5 out after this series, then we have a legit shot. I know the season is likely lost, odds of making the postseason are probably less than 10% (haven’t checked lately), but what’s wrong with the old, strive for 6 game back end of June, 4 games back end of July, 2 games back end of August, etc progression? Particularly with when the cavalry is expected to come back late June/early July?
Make the Derosa trade for big-league ready pitching…be it a starter or reliever (obviously starter preferred). You’re still improving the future of the club with such a deal, you’re just also helping the club NOW as opposed to perhaps getting a BETTER prospect who is further away.
What’s wrong with the incremental approach is that these are head-to-head series. Though we have remained 7-8 games out of first place, we’ve made up a few games of ground against the other three clubs, all of whom are now under .500. That is a key difference. If we lose two of these series, we will fall further behind those teams, who are all potential rivals. It is essentially slow death by probability.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Over the last month the Indians have scored plenty of runs, and yet have dropped four games further behind Detroit. Losing so many critical players will do that to you! At this stage I’m hoping we can acquire at least one good young starter and one productive reliever in trades somehow, allowing us to hold on and see what happens over the next two months.
If anyone is interested, here is the Runs Scored and Runs Allowed for the AL in May, by division:
DET 139 100
MINN 161 133
CLE 151 154
CHSox 111 125
KC 107 142
NYY 145 118
BOS 144 123
TB 178 155
TOR 120 125
BALT 130 136
TEX 145 103
LAA 119 121
OAK 119 157
SEA 107 142
Yes Detroit did well, but if you look at a little more granular view it’s not so impressive. Detroit played 29 games in the month (if I counted correctly), and 16 of them were against last place clubs (Baltimore, Colorado, Oakland and us). In those games the Tigers were +34 (RS-RA), nearly all of their gap for the month. The Indians played 30 games in May, none against last place teams, and 16 against teams that were in 1st or 2nd in their division. In those 16 games, we were -18 (RS-RA). I think that’s actually a pretty darn good performance, especially under the circumstances we faced with our pitching issues.
I’m the first one to support a sharper focus on data. I wonder how many of those last place teams are in last place because of failure to pitch well, versus those that lack effective offense? For instance, our Indians are in last place, but our lineup would typically be a challenge for other teams.
The Rangers!
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 3, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
We were in a similar position last year on June 30th. We had 8 games against the Twins, White Sox and Detroit.
((We lost all 8))
What’s up, palcal?
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jun 2, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
This reminds me of undergrad in Chemical Engineering. We’d fill up three pages with equations and calculations that were no where near where the final answer had to be. Then we’d write “then a miracle occurs….” and write what we knew was the correct answer.
The Tribe plays 9 in the division… then a miracle occurs… we’re only five games back.
by Buzz on Jun 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
We definitely have a shot at this division if we play well and take these next series. I have said before that .500 could win this division, that’s how bad it is. I would hope if we win the division we have won more than 81 games but I’ll take it if it gets us in the playoffs.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I know this has been discussed ad naseum, but when we cash it in, does Cliffton go on the block?
I read that he has a club option for 2010 ($9 Million). I know he won’t make CC money on the open market, but is it realistic to think we would be able to extend him?
so you think we’re going to tank next season too eh?
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Jun 4, 2009 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions
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