Game 59: Indians 8, White Sox 4
by Ryan on Jun 7, 2009 7:54 PM EDT
in Game Recaps
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PrintThe Indians came into Chicago at the right time. Carlos Quentin is on the shelf, Jermaine Dye was suspended for two games, and the White Sox will start a five-game series starting tomorrow, so a couple of the regulars sat today. And to top things off, the Indians got to hit against Bartolo Colón, the gift that keeps on giving.
Both teams used a lineup more at home in exhibition season than a regular season game. The Indians sat both Travis Hafner and Jhonny Peralta, and took the opportunity to let Victor Martinez DH. But the Indians didn't have any problems with offense today, including the players who were replacing the regulars. In the second, Chris Gimenez and Luis Valbuena homered back-to-back, and the Indians repeated the feat in the fifth when Victor Martinez and Shin-Soo Choo went deep. Bartolo was done after that inning, and Ozzie Guillen, thinking of the double-header tomorrow, tried to steal some innings with rookie Wes Whistler. Whistler walked the first two batters of the sixth, and both of them scored. Guillen had to use his regular relievers the rest of the way.
David Huff flew after the fifth inning, but he did enough. He held Chicago scoreless until the fifth, when, with a 6-0 lead, he walked two batters and gave up a lead-splitting three-run homer. But thanks to Carl Pavano's complete game on Friday along with the off day tomorrow, the Indians could empty their bullpen. Greg Aquino went two scoreless innings, but Luis Vizcaino couldn't find the strike zone in the eighth. He was pulled with the bases loaded and nobody out for Rafael Peréz. Several right-handers were coming up, but Wedge called on Peréz to prevent Guillen from pinch-hitting guys like Thome and Pierzynski for them. Regardless of the strategy behind the move, it was a tough situation for Peréz to come into. But after walking in a run, he struck out the next two and got some help from Trevor Crowe to get the third out. Kerry Wood pitched a relatively smooth ninth, and the Indians won a key division road series.
Next Up: A Day off, then Lee vs. Bannister on Tuesday.
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Luis Valbuena | .125 | Luis Vizcaino | -.108 |
| Rafael Peréz | .115 | Mark DeRosa | -.059 |
| David Huff | .099 | Shin-Soo Choo | -.030 |
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Little extra help late from the Mariners sending the Twins to their 2nd straight loss. 3.5 games out of 2nd place.
Didn’t think this merited its own fanshot, but the Boston Globe speculated on a DeRosa to the Giants deal. The Giants apparently are willing to move Jonathan Sanchez to get help offensively
McCovey Chronicles has a fanpost discussing a pontential trade
I remember Sanchez absolutely dominating us last year when the Giants came to Cleveland and I was shocked to see how poorly he’s pitched so far this year.
On one hand, DeRosa has really been invaluable for us so far, particularly with Cabrera and Grady hurt. I do worry, however, that his continued existence on the roster will negate the momentum we made towards putting Jhonny at third full time (then again, if Valbuena can start producing on a regular basis, he might help that along).
And while I’m all for picking up more major league ready pitching, his walk total is fairly high (and will no doubt get higher under our coaches) and his ERA is high (which will no doubt get higher in the AL).
The rumored deal with St. Louis for Boggs seems better, particularly since he’s a righty (we have an awful lot of lefties).
-Kyle
He’s a hard throwing left-hander, his average velocity on his fastball is about 91 mph, that’s still relatively young, he’s 26, strike out a ton of batters, 22% K/BF for his career,and will be entering his first year of arbitration in the offseason. I think there’s a lot to like.
The Giants are probably a little frustrated with him, as they can’t seem to get the walk rate down. There’s two things that go with this, maybe a change of scenery would help and that, theoretically, it’s easier to bring the walk rate down than it is too increase the k rate. Of course, there’s a substantial chance that he never finds it and he remains what he is, and that’s not altogether terrible.
was his minor league walk rate high or is this a relatively new occurrence
by world dictator on Jun 7, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m with Clark. I can’t believe the Indians could get a player of his caliber. It would be amazing if it were to happen. And for just DeRosa? Incredible. Though I suspect another bat has to go west as well (Jordan Brown?).
Hmm, some people here have been high on Sanchez in the past. I never was, though. His BAA is actually lower this year than last, and his FIP is better now than it was in 07.
FE WEE
Giants commenter:
Jason Stark did mention the other day that scouts have told him Sanchez will be a reliever in the future because he cannot stay consistent over 5 innings.
FE WEE
How can this possibly not merit a FanShot?
Right now, the lead FanShot is, “Guy in minors would rather be in majors.”
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 7, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I don’t know much about him, but it does seem like we’d be buying low. I mean, maybe Jonathan Sanchez himself doesn’t happen, but realistically, the candidate would be a not quite 3rd starter/maybe 4th starter who is probably/hopefully a better option that Sowers, right? Could we really expect anything more for less than 4 months of Derosa?
I think the goal would be a better option than Huff, at this point. Sowers has been solid since getting called up again. I would expect him the be our #5 if everything goes as planned and we get Westbrook and Laffey back end of June/beginning of July.
-Kyle
You really see Sowers as a stronger bet than Huff? Because I really don’t.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I got into this exact argument with my brother today. In no way do I see Sowers as a better version of Huff.
If the Indians are trading DeRosa, that means they are out of the race. So if they’re out of the race they should be trading DeRosa for best package out there, and not looking to fill a hole that may not be there a month from now.
Is that necessarily true? Seems to me trading DeRosa for ML-ready pitching would be one way to try to stay/get back in the race….
by Logodaedalus on Jun 7, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I might agree with you had Cabrera been healthy. But now? The offense needs all the help it can get.
The offense needs all the help it can get.
More than the pitching, though? Tomo Ohka is going to make a start later this week. Greg Aquino is our most reliable reliever.
Of course the pitching’s worse. But look at his game logs, and that’s pitching in very pitching-friendly division. If the Indians are trading for help now, I don’t think this trade is going to do that.
Yeah, it’s hard to say… If I had any confidence that Astro would be back in a month, as opposed to two or more, I would probably lean toward trading DeRosa for SP, given that we have no depth whatsoever in that department until Westbrook and Laffey come back. Even with one of those guys back, I’d probably rather send two of Carroll/Valbuena/Barfield/Gimenez to the infield every day than operate with Tomo Ohka as my 6th starter (let alone 5th).
by Logodaedalus on Jun 7, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
in fact, I have hardly any confidence that Cabrera will be back when they’re predicting publicly, but I still lean toward doing it.
by Logodaedalus on Jun 7, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
One mildly interesting thing to keep an eye on now as well is the “Kerry Wood Games Finished” horse race to see if his 2011 vesting option is triggered this year.
I think baseball reference wasn’t updated tonight and he’s at 20 games finished, needing 55 to trigger it. Very slightly ahead of the season’s pace. Would certainly expect to see more save situations per game than the first 2 months triggered.
No, definitely not — why wouldn’t we want the club to have the option?
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
ahh, I’m misremembering something.
Under 55, and it’s our option and Over 55, it’s his?
Still, I think we should want Wood to finish that many games because it probably equals more wins for the team.
FE WEE
Over 55, it’s a guaranteed year, not an option for either side.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Guy on the Giants blog is proposing David Wright for Sanchez.
And yet you’re the one in Amsterdam.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
maybe he’s more in Amsterdam in spirit, I’m more actually in Amsterdam
by APV on Jun 8, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
So, while we have you here, what are your basic requirements for a 6-pack column? I’m organizing substitutes.
And what happened to the Minor Action May update?
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Minor Action May got pre-empted by other obligations last week. The Early Weekend 6-pack has no real requirements other than 6 numbered things and a picture, preferably of something beer-like (with an actualy six pack being preferred)
by APV on Jun 8, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s what I figured, just wanted to make sure I wasn’t missing some crucial element.
I wonder if Nosco is available.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Perfect timing. I wonder if he has any thoughts on the draft?
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jun 8, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Can I throw crazy at the wall and see if it sticks? With our obvious lack of SP depth that might help the ML club any time soon (sans some sort of miraculous comeback by Jake) why not try and think a bit outside the box. Why not sign Sheets to a 1.5 year contract based on incentives ala Pavano, put him in some sort of structured program with his rehab and see if he can help eat some innings somewhere around August. Best case scenario we hit the jackpot, right?
I just wanted to believe.
I fully support this idea.
Unfortunately the odds say there’s a 90% chance he signs with Texas…which is stupid in my opinion btw. Why would any pitcher, let a lone a pitcher returning from injury, want to pitch in Arlington?
by world dictator on Jun 8, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Mike Maddux, and yes, he does live in the Metroplex area.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jun 8, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Boy, do I think DeRosa is getting overvalued here. A ML-ready pitcher for him would be awesome. Jonathan Sanchez would be a steal equal to Choo for Broussard. The Indians are in real trouble in the pitching department. If you think Jake will ride in on a white horse, you are a great optimist. Presumably you get Sanchez for more than this season. He’s flippable if you’re out of it in July, but holy hell he would be a vast improvement for this staff.
Why would we flip Sanchez if we’re not contending in July?
by world dictator on Jun 8, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe you’d want to avoid arbitration. I don’t know. Isn’t a starting pitcher more valuable than a utility player? What if you have Westbrook, Carmona and Laffey back, and Sowers pitching well? (I guess then I’d trade Pavano.)
What if you have Westbrook, Carmona and Laffey back, and Sowers pitching well? we’re struck by divine intervention
I’m sorry, I don’t believe in miracles.
BUT in the highly unlikely scenario that all four of our injured/underperformed pitchers come back strong, Sanchez could still help bolster the bullpen for the rest of the season. Then he could compete for a starting spot in 2010. At the very least he would provide valuable depth in the rotation
by world dictator on Jun 8, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree that DeRosa is being overvalued, and I disagree that Sanchez is such a prize, but I agree that serviceable starting pitchers don’t get flipped for solid everyday players.
Sanchez = Choo? Please. Choo was a gifted young prospect. Sanchez is in his third year of mediocrity, and he isn’t getting any younger or better.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We’re talking Mark DeRosa, not George Brett. He’s a good player, here for a year. I wouldn’t be so fixated on Sanchez’s BB rate. The Indians already lead the league in walks—what’s a few more? He’s struck out 304 batters in 302 innings. If that is mediocrity, then I’m missing something.
Dude, there’s so much more to baseball than strikeouts. The dude’s mediocre, especially in the AL.
FE WEE
Age. He’s six months younger than Rafael Perez. Six months older than Tony Sipp and Jeremy Sowers. Past his injury nexus. Fewer hits than innings pitched. You have to really twist your neck to make him into a mediocre pitcher.
And, as I must say again, we’re talking about getting him for Mark DeRosa. This wouldn’t be a good trade if it was for Choo. But since when has Mark DeRosa become so great?
The market determines the trade value.
by world dictator on Jun 8, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Since we traded Casey Blake for Carlos Santana and another good prospect at the deadline.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel like you’re kind of ignoring the service time factor. Sanchez isn’t ours for six-odd years, only three-odd, and not at minimum salary. He isn’t one of our usual young-talent acquisitions in that sense.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand that. He’d have to be signed to a three-year deal unless you’d want arbitration, which you wouldn’t. But we’re talking Mark DeRosa, damn it. The Dodgers way overpaid for Casey. Do you expect to see that again? And isn’t Blake better than DeRosa?
No, Blake is not better than DeRosa. Blake is about as good at 3B as DeRosa is at 2B, and they’re about even as hitters (two months of 2009 notwithstanding).
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly. And good players have value. And Sanchez potentially is good but isn’t really good at this point and never has been all that good.
I assume you’re kidding about the walks.
Interesting note: Only our third basemen in the majors have more Runs Created than DeRosa, who has 33. And few if any are experienced second basemen or totally ready to step in at any corner spot.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course I’m kidding about walks. I considered looking up BB rates for other Indians starters, and would presume them to be comparable if not higher, but then I remembered the Indians pitchers suck. I don’t think we should be so reductionist about walks, that’s all.
And forgive me for asking again, but is pitching 302 major-league innings while giving up 300 hits equivalent to never having been all that good? I thought never having been all that good is what Sidney Ponson is, or Zach Jackson. Or Toma Ohka?
You are worsening your argument by being ridiculous here, odradek. I wouldn’t mind the Indians trying to get Sanchez because I think he’s got potential to be good and we’d have him under control under market value if not exactly cheaply for three more seasons. But…you can’t exactly be dismissive of his walk rate. He could have the best stuff in the world (i.e. Cabrera, Carmona) but is completely useless if he can’t throw strikes. His walk-rate this season is catastrophically bad, as in, if we had him now, we’d probably have to send him down to get him corrected. He has only made it out of the 5th twice all season, despite pitching in perhaps the only division more pathetic than the AL Central. He has two quality starts this season. I would agree with you that he hasn’t exactly been mediocre, but he also hasn’t been great. He would seem to fall in the middle of those groups looking at his FIP over the past four seasons (4.31, 3.85, 4.76, 4.17)
by APV on Jun 8, 2009 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions
His walk-rate this season is catastrophically bad, as in, if we had him now, we’d probably have to send him down to get him corrected.
This is the kicker. It’s not that Sanchez isn’t desirable, or even more valuable than DeRosa. But the Fearless Leaders are right on this one—he’s not an immediate fix, and if you’re going to trade for the future, we should be getting a package of prospects.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jun 8, 2009 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions
If you were told the Indians received in exchange for DeRosa a 22-year-old prospect who just finished a year in the South Atlantic League where he pitched 125.2 innings while giving up 122 hits, walking 39 and striking out 166, you’d be happy, right? Sanchez isn’t a prospect. He’s a major-league pitcher. He’s 26. Do you think you’d be better off going for another Rob Bryson?
I wouldn’t be that excited by Sanchez at 22, and no one would want another Bryson for Derosa. Another 22 year old in A ball with a FIP right around 3? Jackson and Sowers, and Reyes (bb-ref doesn’t list HR allowed for him then). Not-so-good major leaguers pitch well in the SAL at 22.
The only reason to make a DeRosa-Sanchez swap is if you’re punting on this season, and your scouts think you can fix the walk problem. He might be a major league pitcher, but as said many times, he’s not helping you this season with that walk rate. He pretty much has to be treated like a prospect, someone who won’t help this year, and with some coaching could help out next year and the couple years after. What did you give up to get that guy last year in Reyes?
Not sure what Bryson has to do with all of us, but he was 20 last year.
Anyway, I don’t think there is any way that giving up DeRosa equates to “punting on this season.” Sure, he has some value, but come on.
I’m not trying to be ridiculous. I’m trying to say that a walk rate in line with his career stats is sustainable and manageable. He’s not perfect, but you aren’t going to get a perfect pitcher for Mark DeRosa. He has upside. There is risk involved, but again you’re not going to get Matt Garza for Mark DeRosa. He has a walk rate of about 4.8. No one is saying that’s good. But it doesn’t mean he’s useless.
There is also the matter of money saved this season. He’s making nothing while DeRosa is doing okay,
His career ERA+ is 85, and it’s never been much higher than that. 85 is not good, it’s solidly below-average. What is so baffling about this to you?
Removed from AT&T Park, his career road ERA is 5.68.
It would be nice if we could get the K rate or the hit rate while ignoring the walk rate, but it doesn’t work that way. Part of the reason for the low hit rate is his difficulty keeping the ball in the zone. Part of the reason for the high K rate, in fact, is hitters chasing out of the zone. But too often, they don’t chase, and that is why there are so many walks, and that is why his overall run suppression is poor.
I can’t even see him in our bullpen with all those walks. As a starter, he might collapse totally in the AL, but he likely would be a serviceable #5. There would be plenty of trainwreck starts, though, and the bottom line is that unlike Mark DeRosa, you can get starts like that for free.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
First, you’ve declared him below average based on 47.1 innings. Is that a sufficient sample size for your assessment? I think in other cases you might say it’s too small.
This from the Bay City Blog:
In the modern era, starting pitcher’s who have walked 4.5+ hitters per 9 innings while striking out 8+ per 9 innings have had some success. As a pitcher-type, it’s not out of the ordinary. Pitchers like: Mark Langston, Randy Johnson, Al Leiter, Nolan Ryan, Bartolo Colon, and Tom Gordon have all had seasons that fit this criteria. Some of these pitchers eventually took a step forward with their control — some didn’t — but if you’ve got above-average stuff, chances are you’ll be given the chance to stick around. Pulling the plug after 47.1 innings of inconsistency would be foolish.
Not 47 or 52 innings — 302 innings.
I don’t know if it’s sufficient, but it’ll have to do.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s a case to be made that according to FIP he has been average in those 302 innings, not below average. This goes for your comment in the other Sanchez thread as well.
A pitcher who walks a lot of batters is making his own bad luck, sure. I guess in my head I see 2009 as over outside of a miracle (and I’m intently watching those 2nd-place standings) so to me he has from June to September to work out that command.
Steel Nick
I grant you the FIP argument, but that’s only one way to look at his numbers, not the only way.
Nothing can change the fact that he’s done it in Yellowstone Park against terrible hitters.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
by Jay on Jun 8, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions
You joke, but this is a serious analytical problem that has no easy answer.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I agree. I’m kind of wondering how far off it is. In looking at BP’s park factors, I note that SF is 1002 and Cleveland is 1010 in 2008. (Compare with 1039 for White Sox and 1031 for the Reds.) Buffalo is surprisingly hitter friendly. But these are only compared to other parks in the league, and are not transferrable from one level to another. Colorado is still 1063 and Arizona 1060, so maybe the NL West parks aren’t as pitcher friendly as we suppose. Dodger Stadium is 971 and Petco is 903 (!).
Consensus is that you have to look at rolling three-year averages for park effects.
MLE generally is more concerned with the difference between minor league performance and major league performance. My sense is that the general AL/NL difference is greater than the AL West hitting incompetence in particular. Colorado has been ameliorated by the humidor, but nobody is ameliorating San Francisco and Petco on the other side of the scale.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
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