Game 92: Mariners 3, Indians 1
by afh4 on Jul 18, 2009 10:21 PM EDT
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In an unlikely revenge scenario, Franklin Gutierrez has absolutely murdered the Cleveland Indians this week. Gutierrez has only three hits in the series, but those three hits have been a double and two home runs. On top of that, Franklin has been predictably stellar center field, including robbing Asdrubal of a no-doubt double today.
Tonight, the Indians wasted a stellar start (7IP, 3 ER) from Tomo Ohka. The Tribe was only able to plate one run all day, despite outhitting the Mariners 8 to 5: a large part of this club's struggles over the last five seasons can be summed up by stupidly pointing out that they don't get hits at the right time. On the positive side of the ledger, Travis Hafner had two more hits today, and both Rafael Betancourt and Kerry Wood put in scoreless innings of work, with Wood being especially dominant in striking out the side.
If the Indians were going to make a second-half run, it needed to start about a month ago, but even those holding out hope for some Pyrrhic victories down the stretch might need to realign expectations. The Mariners seem poised for some pitching regression, but the Indians' inability to start the M's down that hill is right in line with the whole season. This Cleveland team is not going to have enough pitching to win games unless some very unforeseen things happen, and this team is wasting decent performances out of their terrible pitchers. I suppose there's no reason to kill hope now if you've kept it alive this long but, well, how about that Bryce Harper?
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Jamey Carroll |
.119 | Jhonny Peralta | -.165 |
| Travis Hafner |
.051 | Grady Sizemore | -.132 |
| Rafael Betancourt |
.031 | Ben Francisco | -.132 |
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The team is currently seventh out of thirty teams in runs scored. I know the offense is not the problem, but this team should still be scoring more runs. DeRosa’s absence is noticed offensively. The down years from Sizemore and Peralta and the woeful performances of Francisco and Garko are hurting the team, even if it’s the pitching that’s killing them.
You know, while they are sixth in runs scored, they are 13th in OPS, mostly because they are 14th in SLG. They are also 8th in walks, 6th in strikeouts and 20th in stolen bases, with an average 72% success rate.
To me, it looks like an offense that walks a lot but then doesn’t have much idea what to do once they’ve gotten on first.
by NickFantana on Jul 19, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Love me some Bryce Harper Anybody know what the deal with him getting his GED and coming out early? That was the last thing I heard about him per the article above. Also Hafner is looking good … good to see him on a hitting streak and going the other way. Can we just fast forward to next year or at least call some people up so I can get excited about our younger talent in the bigs. Not that I’m not excited but I’d like to see them in action.
I’m far from sold on Harper. He’s beyond arrogant, or at least comes off as so in the article, and his stat line is getting fat off of high school pitching. I think he’s making the right move in the sense that, if he comes out early, his first contract will set him up for life, but he’s a long, long way from being the baseball Messiah he seems to see himself as.
I do want to include the caveat that I understand that you weren’t necessarily affirming Harper’s (or this article’s) opinion of his skills. I just think people are getting a little too giddy about someone who is far from having proven anything. Let him get a couple of solid seasons at whatever his next level ends up being under his belt, then we’ll have a clearer picture of how he compares to Ted Williams.
Eh, I wouldn’t be so quick to disregard Harper. If the scouts are in unison about his talent, which seems to be the case, it would be foolish to pass him up. Would you have advocated passing on Strasburg?
We’ll see how Strasburg’s negotiations turn out. If he’s really holding out for $52 million.
It makes sense to pay for a very high probability of having a decent major leaguer, but let’s not pretend that this is more than that necessarily.
At a certain point — and it’s far below this, it’s more like in Teixeira territory — signing prospects with substantial bonuses ceases entirely to produce the kind of exceptional value that you expect to get out of a very high draft pick. It becomes more like signing a free agent. At that point, why not sign an actual free agent, and use your draft pick on someone with a better ROI?
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I am curious to see how the Strasburg negotiations go as well particularly because Washington will be in line to draft Harper as well.
I want to expand on that point about the super-elite draft bonuses.
Teixeira and Prior each got around $10 million, but the effects of those contracts spill over into arbitration salaries as well.
Teixeira panned out very well — had a 919 OPS in his first six seasons (pre-free agency) and was paid $37 million.
Prior did not pan out very well — he had about two great seasons over five years with the Cubs and was paid $18 million.
Yes, those are good values, but I submit to you that with the top pick in the draft, you can do better.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Scouts are routinely wrong. Think of how many “next big thing” type of talents that you hear about that never make it. Those guys are either coming from college or have graduated high school. Stretching the projection back two more years to a kid who is, by his own admission, not playing the best talent and is only a sophomore in high school is a ridiculous stretch. Strasburg is nowhere near the same situation and isn’t an even mildly worthwhile comparison.
Strasburg is nowhere near the same situation and isn’t an even mildly worthwhile comparison.
This is probably a little more strongly than I would have worded it, but there is a huge difference between a collegiate pitcher from the west coast and a 16-year-old catcher playing against below top level competition. That said, and as Jay pointed out, there is a really good chance that Strasburg ends up not being worth the money, just like Ben McDonald, whose worthless rookie card I still have.
My point, though, was that we need to trust out scouts, and if they are in consensus that Harper is a special player, we need to strongly consider drafting him.
i personally, am not able to evaluate a player at his level against high school competition. Online writers whose opinion i respect, have all been extremely high on Harper. It would be extremely foolish not to look long and hard at him.
An opposing thought is, can the Nationals afford to not draft Harper? On the 1 in 100 chance he’s as good as the hype, can you imagine how hard they would get skewered in the arena of public opinion? It would be like if every scout had told the Blazers how good Jordan was going to be, and they drafted Bowie anyway. I understand all the arguments against him, but, when dealing in an area where the opinion of a fan base matters, couldn’t it be seen as hedging their bets a little bit to draft him?
I don’t know; I’m sure it would be an awful lot of money. I’m just throwing this out there.
It’s still an apples to oranges comparison. Jordan was a known quantity coming out of college, where he played against the very best competition possible. Harper is a 16 year old kid who is playing average high schoolers. It’s not like he dominated college or some Florida summer league here. He never been injured, never been challenged and he already thinks he can be one of the best ever. His odds of ever even making the majors for a cup of coffee are, at this point, minuscule.
To our untrained eye, the odds are miniscule. There are plenty of high school baseball players with enormous talent, who have made it to the big leagues and been great. Mauer and Josh Hamilton are both players I remember hearing about similarly to Harper coming out of high school.
The counter I have heard is Ben McDonald and Mark Prior. The difference I see here is that taking a pitcher out of high school and paying an inordinate amount of money is much different than paying a position player.
I think position players represent a great risk out of high school as well. Remember Matt Bush? He was a major prospect and went first overall to the Padres in 2004, ahead of Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver. He’s not even in baseball anymore. Shawn Chillicott was a catcher (like Howard) and went with the first pick ahead of Reggie Jackson. The list could go on and on but you get the idea.
The point is that projecting kids out of high school is hard enough. Howard could be all ping, he could be the next Brien Taylor, Al Chambers or Matt Bush. These guys all at least came out as seniors, Howard is only 16, he’s not even been injured yet. He’s not even old enough to go to prom yet.
He could be the next big thing, but right now he represents a mostly unknown quantity and an unjustifiable risk. Why risk huge money on him when there is other better known and better scouted talent on the board?
The Twins didn’t draft Prior, and that worked out okay for them.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Should the Mariners pitching regress or is there a benefit to the major emphasis they have put on backing their pitchers with a stellar defense?
I am curious how it breaks down between the OF and IF. Washburn is a pitcher with fly-ball tendencies and I think he has benefited from having an OF of Chavez, Gutz, and Ichiro.
even those holding out hope for somePyrrhicvictories down the stretch
Fixed.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 19, 2009 7:19 AM EDT reply actions
I’m sitting here thinking this is the most depressed I’ve been about the Indians and our future for 10-15 years.
I suspect we will soon unload some of our authentic proven stars for unproven, but exciting prospects, and we will swoon over their potential. I suspect next year all the baseball publications will go on about what a wonderful farm system we have and insist we are on the brink of once again being a contender. I suspect Wedge and his crew will be back next year and all the exciting prospects now in AAA and AA will arrive and underperform and we will turn on them, and another year will be wasted.
If this is the best we can expect then at least get us a manager with some spirit and personality, and some players with attitudes. Make the team exciting to watch, take chances, be unpredictable. Right now we suck and worse, we’re boring. I can’t imagine paying good money to watch this team. At least hire Trot Nixon (or Albert Belle) as bench coach.
If you believe it's just a game, you're also probably wondering why Santa keeps skipping your house every year.
We weren’t as good as we looked with 96 wins, and we aren’t as bad off as we look now.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
I suspect Wedge and his crew will be back next year
The second half of that quote is directly related to the first half.
"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin
by woodsmeister on Jul 19, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m no bigger a fan of Wedge than the next guy but insinuating he will ruin an entire farm system worth of prospects is a bit alarmist.
I am so soured on Wedge’s ability to manage the players he has and put them in position to succeed that I don’t think this is alarmist at all.
"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin
by woodsmeister on Jul 20, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I know right? Look at what he did to Sizemore and Asdrubal. Once promising careers, ruined. We should definitely base our opinions of Wedge’s prospect-managing on Andy Flippin’ Marte (whom I believe he mishandled but MY GOD). Or Brandon Phillips* for that matter. When oh when will Eric Wedge stop putting laxatives in the Gatorade of all under-25 players?
Your souring is completely legitimate and it is in no way an exaggerration of proportions only possible by a Clevelander to say Eric Wedge will mishandle every promising ballplayer put under his watch.
*and his .553 OPS in 400 at-bats in 2003 (on OPS+ of 40), or his sub-.800 OPSs in 1,000 subsequent AAA ABs. It’s pretty clear to everyone Brandon Phillips was a shining star.
I need more coffee.
Steel Nick
Again – Eric Wedge has a blind spot for prospects who come up and perform right away, like Sizemore and Asdrubal (and Franciscoster). They get a lot of rope and blind devotion. Prospects who don’t perform right away (Marte, Phillips, et. al.) are hung out to dry and tend to sit behind undeserving veterans until some external event (injury or intolerably bad performance or Shapiro trading away or releasing said veteran) forces Wedge’s hand.
Wedge has no capacity to watch a rookie make rookie mistakes on their way to becoming a veteran. If Wedge had managed the Phillies, Mike Schmidt would have become a Hall of Famer for some other team.
"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin
by woodsmeister on Jul 20, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I would have to say Valbuena is either the exception to this rule or the counterpoint that just makes you wrong. Each individual can decide for him/herself how gracious to be.
Once again we can remove Phillips from the list of prospects who got off to a slow start and rotted away without playing time for extended periods. BP was treated in no such way.
This is clearly a struggling player, and yet I see NO short leash. Outside of those 112 major league games Brandon got in 40 games in Buffalo. He was given all the time in the world by Wedge to make his mistakes and grow and all that crap. When 2003 was over the Indians (logically) concluded Brandon might need some consistent ABs in the minors to get back on track. He was given almost 600 plate appearances in 2004 alone and couldn’t put it back together.
But I bet if Eric Wedge was Eisenhower’s drill sergeant we’d all be speaking German, right?
Steel Nick
Ramon Vazquez.
"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin
by woodsmeister on Jul 20, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Y’know I was just thinking: What if on Wedge’s exit press conference he said something like, “I think the biggest mistake I made in Cleveland was mishandling Brandon Phillips. That was completely on me.” This would all make me look very silly.
Steel Nick
Right. And Barfield got essentially the same length audition, although he was not a rookie.
Marte actually is the exception to that particular rule.
The bigger issue is a failure to reach players who have talent but don’t adapt well to the Indians Way.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
The bigger issue is a failure to reach players who have talent but don’t adapt well to the Indians Way.
Once again, Jay gets at everything I’ve been trying to say but tap dancing around in a pithy, easy to remember phrase.
"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin
by woodsmeister on Jul 20, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s weird, I could have sworn what you said was that Eric Wedge will ruin all our prospects just like he has all our previous prospects.
Steel Nick
OK. I give up. Eric Wedge has not ruined all our prospects. Just Marte. That being said, I don’t want him anywhere near any of our prospects next year. I don’t want him anywhere near our prospects the rest of this year, but it seems we’re pretty well stuck with that.
"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin
by woodsmeister on Jul 20, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
This.
Although I’d let him watch from the stands. I don’t think we can afford to turn down ticket buyers.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Jul 20, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
As my esteemed colleague has already mentioned, this is just not true.
Valbuena is slugging .381, lower than Brandon Phillips or Andy Marte did in their first stints with the team. That pretty much ruins the idea that “hitting the ball hard right away” is the way to win the heart of fair manager.
Right now Valbuena has 175 PA and a line of .219/.280/.381. At 178 PA Marte had a line of .226/.287/.421. Marte is, in this case, the prospect that is performing while Valbuena would get your tag of “prospects who don’t perform right away.” Despite that, Marte isn’t playing and Valbuena is.
Clearly, we disagree on Valbuena. I think Wedge pretty much had his hands tied regarding Valbuena by he DeRosa trade, necessitating Jhonny’s move to 3B. Their options on Valbuena are to either play him regularly and see what happens, play Jamey Carroll regularly and keep Valbuena on the bench as the utility guy playing 2 or 3 times a week, or to play Jamey Carroll regularly and send Valbuena down and bring up the Little Giraffe as the utility infielder. Valbuena has little to accomplish in Columbus except to reduce his service time, and there would be little point having him up here getting major league service time while playing 2 or three times a week.
And as for hitting the ball hard, 14 of Valbuena’s 35 hits (40%) have been doubles.
Plus, it’s important to note that those 178 PA by Marte in that late season 2006 callup were enough to have him handed the starting third baseman job out of Spring Training in 2007. It was only after he got off to a sluggish start and was sidelined by injury that he was put on the bench for a then hot-hitting Blake.
Has Wedge mishandled every prospect we’ve had? Of course not. To say so is a deliberate exaggeration, and I plead guilty. Has Wedge mishandles some prospects? Yes. Does Wedge have a fondness for underachieving veteran “grinders” over rookies with higher ceilings? Yes. Has Wedge continued to play Ryan Garko in the outfield? Inexplicably, yes. I’m sorry, but the more I see of Eric Wedge this year, the more I’m convinced that he’s totally lost the ability to truly judge the talent level of anyone on this team and I would just as soon that all of our players get a fresh start with somebody else, the sooner the better. And sooner is, apparently at the earliest next year.
"Actual versatility is a good thing. Imagined versatility is a bad thing."
Jay Levin
by woodsmeister on Jul 20, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure what prospects you’re referring to besides Marte. No one can fairly say that LaPorta has been mishandled because we’re still dealing with LaPorta right now*. So you’ve got Marte and bupkis. We love to assume that once Wedge has erred in some particular aspect, he always has or always will err when faced with a similar situation.
If you want a manger to give 250 straight ABs to a prospect OPSing under .600, you are rooting for a team out of contention. If LaPorta is OPSing .590 at the end of May next year I don’t care who the manager is, I want him benched for a Casey Blake. Because that manager is trying to throw the season.
*Yes, he should be up here. But you can’t tell me Wedge is begging Shapiro to keep him in Columbus. We don’t know.
Steel Nick
you could argue that if Wedge would have played him more often that he would have been so good that he’d still be on the ML ballclub.
Proud Fan of the Worst Baseball Team I've Ever Seen
WHO?! Marte? I could have sworn there isn’t a single person here arguing that Marte was handled correctly. And yet it keeps coming up.
Steel Nick
For the record I’m not really shouting “Who” at the top of my lungs. I guess this is comparable to “LOL.” But seriously no one is saying Marte was handled properly.
My point above is that if you DO give a kid an extended look and he sucks and you bench him, then you’ve done what you’re supposed to do if your team is in a race.
Steel Nick
Well if you’re talking about LaPorta there’s no point in making the argument. No one can prove you wrong. We could also say Wedge saved LaPorta’s career, because leaving him out there for another 300 ABs to OPS .500 would have destroyed his confidence or some jive. No one knows.
Steel Nick
Nice use of jive, and fantastic avatar.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 21, 2009 6:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn’t another option on Val be to send him down, move Jhonny back to SS, and install Marte as the every day 3B? Despite how “hard” Valbuena is hitting the ball, his ISO is the exact same as Marte’s in the lines listed by fwembt.
Despite our disagreement on Valbuena, I concur wholeheartedly with you on your entire last paragraph.
To coin a phrase, that depends on what your definition of “Is” is.
If a young player struggles for several weeks but then improves, do you judge him on his year-to-date totals — is that how he is hitting? — or do you judge him on his ability to make adjustments and improve?
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
That’s good question. Luis Valbuena in his first 23 games (he’s played 45) hit 8 of those doubles and struck out 26 times (.567 OPS). In his next 22 games he hit two fewer doubles and struck out seven fewer times. More importantly, he accrued a .722 OPS in those last 22.
That’s all very misleading though. If not for a five game stretch (most the Cubs series) where he slugged .565, Valbuena’s OPS would be a steadily sinking .603. At this point, I’d say he isn’t amking that much of an adjustment. Of course, it’s all very SSS and mostly for the sake of the argument.
I’m convinced that he’s totally lost the ability to truly judge the talent level of anyone on this team and I would just as soon that all of our players get a fresh start with somebody else, the sooner the better.
It’s possible that Wedge used to be able to see this (Sizemore, Cabrera) but he has lost his capacity to do so because he is so fixated on playing the game right. In other words, these don’t have to be mutually exclusive conditions.
You really love that last paragraph, huh?
by Joel D on Jul 21, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Marte isn’t exactly a prospect anymore.
Valbuena hit a lot of balls hard even when his average was abysmal — I think 10 of his first 18 hits went for extra bases, something like that, and he hit a lot of would-be gappers right at guys, line-outs, etc. Point being, you could tell from looking that he was doing a few things very right, even though his numbers in his first several dozen PA were horrible.
I don’t think anyone would have characterized Barfield or Phillips’ performances that way.
Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Wedge, Marte, Phillips. What haven’t we covered? Are higher-ceiling players more likely to be offended by our racist logo, thereby hurting our drafts?
Steel Nick
Hey, I’m not racist!
Oh, you mean Wahoo.
by Logodaedalus on Jul 20, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
My drafts are fine. I spent this weekend checking.
by NickFantana on Jul 21, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
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